Background
This study was completed to meet the requirements for SOIL 548, the capstone course for the professional Masters in Land and Water Systems program at the University of British Columbia. The purpose of the project was to identify an issue related to water resources, develop a framework and synthesis on how to analyze and address the issue and provide recommendations for mitigation. The development of the project was co-supervised by a UBC faculty member and two professional consultants.
Introduction
The Chapman River on the Sunshine Coast is the main water source for 22,000 people and concerns have been expressed that increasing demand due to population growth and increasing climatic variability might lead to water shortages and insufficient summer streamflow to maintain a healthy aquatic environment. As a result a water demand and supply analysis was conducted in the Chapman Water System to determine how climate change will impact water consumption habits and future water supply and what some of the conservation options are to alleviate future water shortages.
The current issues facing water resources on the Sunshine Coast include but are not limited to drought, a limited water supply, limited capacity to treat water, population growth, and increased climate variability. In recognition of the water issues on the Sunshine Coast, important steps have already been taken towards ensuring water resources can be secured for the future. We Envision, the Regional Sustainability Plan for the Sunshine Coast, has set a target to reduce water consumption 33% by 2020. The Sunshine Coast Regional District (SCRD), the main water supplier on the Sunshine Coast, has recently developed a Comprehensive Regional Water Plan, that provides the SCRD with a direction to meet established targets for reducing water consumption by 20% and securing water resources to 2036 by implementing an intensive demand management approach for water consumption and outlining infrastructure upgrading requirements and options for expanding the current water supply. The SCRD has also developed a Chapman Creek Source Assessment Response Plan that includes a list of action items to address the impacts that climate change will have on water resources. This report aims to complement the existing work that has been done to address future water issues by examining how climate change will impact water supply and water consumption for the Chapman water system on the Sunshine Coast. The objectives of this report are to:
- Review climatic and hydrologic records for the Sunshine Coast to determine trends and variability in precipitation, temperature and discharge over recent history and link these relationships to available water supply.
- Investigate the influence from Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) on local climate and discharge patterns.
- Examine historic population patterns, population projections and estimate tourist population on the Sunshine Coast and the region supplied by the Chapman water system and evaluate the past domestic water consumption from Chapman Creek.
- Determine the relationship between historic human water use and climate records to show how demand changes during wet and dry seasons.
- Develop scenarios of human water demand based on projected population growth for business as usual demand, moderate demand management (12% reduction), and intensive demand management (20% reduction) and changes as a result of global warming and use the results to conduct a sensitivity analysis for the water supply capacity.