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Oct 14 / Roson

The Road Ahead – retreat?

The combination of factors suggest me I should take a “retreat” attitude this week; However, there’s quite a bit of information suggests that there will be further price drop in corn, soybeans and wheat futures. First of all, US dollar is strengthening [1]; US economy is  improving and expecting a good recovery. Secondly, the oil price has dropped due to a forecast of reduced global demand by International Energy Agency[2]Thirdly, according to the news gathered below, yet, not exhaustively, it does seem that the futures prices tend to drop this week.


  • Argentina’s revamped corn export policy[3] (-)


  • More export sales (+)
  • Higher production/ good supplies from South America (e.g. Brazil, Argentina )[4] (-)
  • Cut in palm oil export tax next year in Malaysia leading to the drop of palm oil price [5] (-)
  •  Good opportunity of open market access and predictable trade access in the Asia-Pacific region with Canada entering Trans-Pacific Partnership [6] (-)


  • Unexpected drop in exports [7] (-)
  • Reduced projected production in Russia and Australia (+)
  • Argentina’s revamped wheat export policy which leads to immediate increasing wheat planting [3] (-)





1.RTTNEWS. (2012, Oct 15).  U.S. Dollar Strengthens Against Majors. Retreat from

2. Kwiatkowski, Alexander. (2012, Oct 14).  TOP Oil Market News: Crude Falls After Iran Offers Nuclear Talks. Retrieved from

3.  Ahad , Abdul (2012, Oct 13). New Argentine corn, wheat rules help farmers sales.   Retrieved from

4.  McFerron, Whitney. (2012, Oct 12).  Soybeans Drop as Supply Concerns Ease After USDA Report. Retreived from

5. Ahad, Abdul. (2012, Oct 13).   Palm oil down in export cut news. Retrieved from

6. The Crop Site. (2012, Oct 11). Trans-Pacific Partnership Entry Good News for Canola. Retrieved from

7. McKiernan, Patrick. (2012, Oct 12).  Wheat Futures Fall as U.S. Exports Decline: Commodities at Close. Retrieved from


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