Siya Ulsha | MEL Candidate | Dec 16, 2022
Mentor: Tom–Pierre Frappé–Sénéclauze, Pembina Institute
Abstract
Canada has around 480,000 commercial and institutional buildings, including offices, retail establishments, and warehouses, in addition to over 15 million residential structures. A significant portion of Canada’s energy demand, or around 25% of all final energy consumption, comes from the buildings sector. The climate in Canada has a significant impact on how much energy is used for things like heating (and cooling), which account for about 65% of the energy used in this sector. Hence, to attain the climate targets decarbonization of this heating load is necessary. For a number of uses, including both new residences and retrofits of old heating and cooling systems, heat pumps can be a great option due to:
• In Canada, heat pumps are a proven technology that can control your home’s temperature throughout the year by delivering heat in the winter, cooling in the summer, and in certain circumstances, heating hot water.
• The ongoing increase in renewable electricity generation will make heat pumps the optimal choice for the future.
• As the incremental cost to switch from a cooling–only/ Heating only system to a heat pump is relatively minimal, they are also an option for replacing old HVAC systems.
• The way heat pumps work is different. Thermal energy is transferred between two sites using the heat pump’s input energy. Due to this, heat pumps typically run at efficiency well above 100%, meaning that more thermal energy is generated than is required to pump the heat.
• As the incremental cost to switch from a cooling–only/ Heating only system to a heat pump is relatively minimal, they are also an option for replacing old HVAC systems.
• The way heat pumps work is different. Thermal energy is transferred between two sites using the heat pump’s input energy. Due to this, heat pumps typically run at efficiency well above 100%, meaning that more thermal energy is generated than is required to pump the heat.
Geography has a significant positive impact on Canada’s electricity production industry. Nearly 80% of generation can be regarded as non–emitting. At the same time not all provinces and territories have adopted renewable energy equally, and their electricity grids are not well–connected. As a result, the carbon footprint of heat pumps varies significantly across provinces. This study is trying to find if switching to electric heat pumps for space heating instead of heating oil or gas lowers greenhouse gas emissions across Canada. The answer to that question varies in each province and territory depending on two main factors. The amount of GHGs released as a result of the heat pump’s electricity use will first depend on the electricity mix of the local grid. The efficiency of heat pumps is also influenced by the local climate. A heat pump will use more electricity to heat a building of a similar size depending on how cold the environment is. Higher electricity consumption impacts the carbon footprint of the heat pump. Furthermore, the analysis attempts to understand the economic viability of heat pumps across Canada. The economic case for heat pumps is influenced by a number of factors. The payback period of the upgrade will primarily depend on the price of heat pumps. In order to calculate the annual savings in operational costs, it is important to consider the cost of gas and electricity in various scenarios. Another important factor in determining the economic case for heat pumps is the local climate and heating needs. Hence the project develops a business case for heat pumps as an alternative to natural gas for space heating in various Canadian cities. It also tries to forecast when this fuel switch will result in a net reduction in carbon emissions.