Submitted on 2011/05/04 at 19:38
Perhaps we could watch “People of a Feather” and have a discussion if there is a gap in the talks. Not sure when it’ll be out on dvd… Mark Halverson
Author: hed
Jul 14, 2011
Katherine Leitzell
Heading towards the summer minimum ice extent
Figure 1. This graph shows Arctic sea ice extent for spring and summer months. Light blue indicates the ice extent this year, dark blue shows ice in 2010, and green indicates ice extent during 2007, which was the record low year for Arctic sea ice. The gray line shows the 1979 to 2000 average ice extent, while the gray area around the gray line shows the standard deviation range for the data, which represents the range of normal variability. Credit: NSIDC
So far this summer, Arctic sea ice has been melting at a record pace. Satellite data, which go back to 1979, show that ice extent is currently lower than it was at the same time in 2007, the year that went on to shatter all previous records for low ice extent in September, the end of the melt season (Figure 1). It is not yet clear if the ice will hit a new record low this September. But whether or not the ice extent sets another record, Arctic sea ice is continuing its long-term decline, a trend that researchers say is related to warming temperatures in the Arctic.
This time of year, we receive a lot of questions about the upcoming sea ice minimum. What is it and why does it matter?
What is the Arctic sea ice minimum extent?
Each summer, Arctic sea ice melts and contracts, retreating to less than half its winter extent before cooler fall temperatures halt the ice loss, and ice cover again starts to expand. The lowest ice extent of the year, or the Arctic sea ice minimum, occurs in September.
Researchers look to the sea ice minimum because it provides a clear measure of the health of the ice cover. NSIDC scientist and director Mark Serreze said, “After all of the autumn and winter ice growth has occurred, and after all of the melt occurring through summer, what have we got left?”
Scientists measure both the minimum ice extent on the lowest day of the year, typically occurring in the first or second week of September, as well as the average extent for September. While the amount of ice on the lowest day is important, researchers place more weight on monthly averages in calculating long-term trends. The monthly data for September will be available in the beginning of October.
Why does the amount of summer sea ice matter?
Scientists are worried about declining Arctic sea ice because the ice plays an important role in global climate. The bright white sea ice reflects sunlight and heat back into space, so that the Arctic region remains cooler than it otherwise would. The cold temperatures in the Arctic in turn act as a sort of air conditioner for the rest of the world.
As ice cover retreats, additional areas of open water absorb more heat during the summer, leading to a positive feedback effect where the loss of sea ice in turn leads to more sea ice loss and puts more heat into the upper part of the ocean. While ice will grow back during the winter period of polar darkness, come spring it will be thinner than it used to be, melting out all the more easily the next summer.
When will the minimum ice extent happen this year?
Every year, people ask us when Arctic sea ice will hit its minimum extent. In the past, the minimum ice extent has occurred as early as September 3, and as late as September 22. The average date is September 10. There is no way to know exactly when the ice will stop contracting and start expanding, because it depends in part on changeable weather patterns. However, in recent years there has been a trend towards a later minimum ice extent, likely because the increased areas of open ocean absorb more heat during the summer. NSIDC researcher Walt Meier said, “That heat in the ocean needs to dissipate before new ice can grow.”
Once ice extent has been growing for three or more days in a row, NSIDC reports a preliminary extent measurement and minimum date. However, since sea ice extent is strongly influenced by weather and wind, that number will not be final until the complete September data are available in the beginning of October.
Figure 2. September Arctic sea ice has declined by more than ten percent per decade since 1979. Even though each year depends on a number of variables, the overall trend continues downward. Credit: NSIDC
What would it look like for sea ice to recover?
After hitting an unprecedented record low in September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent has not fallen near that level again (Figure 2). Some people have asked us if that means sea ice is recovering.
Researchers note that 2007 was not one low year in an otherwise stable system. Arctic sea ice has shown a clear decline since the start of satellite monitoring in 1979. On top of that downward trend, the year-to-year ice extent moves up and down, influenced by variable weather patterns. Serreze said, “The minimum extent is especially sensitive to summer weather patterns and these change from year to year.“
If sea ice were recovering, researchers would expect to see a change in the trajectory of the trend line, with minimum ice extents that fall close to or above the 1979 to 2000 average. Meier said, “Any meaningful recovery would take several years to build up ice thickness. We expect to see ups and downs in the coming years and there may be several years between new record low minimums, but the overall long-term trend will continue downward.”
For more background information on Arctic sea ice, see Arctic Sea Ice 101. To see the latest data and read about conditions in the Arctic, go to Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis.
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EDITORIAL: Around the Arctic February 28, 2011 – 3:04 pm
Divided they stand
NUNATSIAQ NEWS
Though the Inuit Circumpolar Council billed the event as an exercise in collective unity, the circumpolar Inuit summit held in Ottawa this past week isn’t likely to fool anyone.
On the big question, offshore drilling for oil and gas, individual Inuit within each national region hold a variety of opinions and prejudices, just like citizens of all other advanced industrial societies. So do their elected officials.
This is as it should be, because honest disagreement is a sign of vigour, not weakness. So members of the ICC need not be disappointed that last week’s gathering produced no coherent consensus.
“Right After Sunset, 2009, coloured pencil on paper, by Itee Pootoogook.
In mature societies, the manufactured expression of “unity” and “collective vision” are exercises in futility that ought to be regarded with deep suspicion. The notion that any single organization can speak as a single voice for all members of any given group is absurd on its face. Human beings form opinions as individuals, not as members of a collective hive-mind.
Besides, oil and gas drilling in the waters of Baffin Bay off Greenland raises legitimate transboundary issues for Nunavut. In that regard, last week’s summit was a useful exercise.
The ICC fought for years to gain a voice at the Arctic Council and other international forums. Now that they’ve accomplished this, the organization’s members have a legitimate need to air out their conflicting positions to best make use of that hard-won status.
But make no mistake. Greenland, a young, optimistic country now ready to embrace modernity and independence, will drill for crude oil. When they find it, they will produce and sell as much of it as they can, as rapidly as they can.
Kuupik Kleist, the premier of Greenland and the leader of a political party that enjoys strong support among young people, made this clear in a forthright set of statements made to reporters near the start of the summit.
“We are now a full part of the global economy. We cannot hide away or shy away from looking at what’s happening on the rest of the globe,” Kleist said Feb. 23.
That is the voice of confidence, the voice of a country prepared for an independent future built on the extraction of oil and gas. Kleist’s message is that Greenland will do what Greenland must do to achieve this. Though they understand the environmental risks, Greenlanders, he said, are willing to accept those risks in exchange for political independence and economic self-sufficiency.
On the other hand, there are the voices of fear.
Within the three largest entities that comprise the ICC — Canada, Greenland and Alaska — the Nunavut territory likely suffers the most from poverty and underdevelopment.
So it’s ironic that the strongest anti-development voices should emerge from Nunavut, especially in Qikiqtani, perhaps the territory’s poorest region, where at least eight of 13 communities fall into the “have-not” category.
“In Canada, we should not have the position that our social and living [conditions] will change because of oil and gas. It should be in spite of it,” Okalik Eegeesiak, the president of the Qikiqtani Inuit Association, said Feb. 23.
In saying this, Eegeesiak expresses the honestly-held fears of those who elected her: the fear of those who have been sorely wounded by rapid change, the fear of those who long for an Eden that will never return, and the fear of those for whom land, sea and wildlife are to be protected at all cost.
“Carving With an Axe,” 2006, coloured pencil & graphite on paper, by Itee Pootoogook. The inscription reads: “Carving with an axe. Those are the soapstones on the left hand side. Cloudy day.”
But Inuit residents of Nunavut and other regions of the Canadian Arctic do not think with one mind on the question of oil and gas extraction and other resource development issues.
The Government of Nunavut, for example, believes the absence of oil and gas exploration in Nunavut waters is rather a big problem. To that end, they sponsored a workshop in Iqaluit this past November to drum up interest in the territory’s undersea oil and gas reserves.
There are many Inuit in the Kivalliq, Kitikmeot and Western Arctic regions who do not fear resource extraction. When he ran for cabinet in 2008, Nunavut’s economic development minister, Peter Taptuna, spoke fondly of the days when he worked with an all-Inuit crew on a Beaufort Sea drilling project in the early 1980s.
Seismic testing? In 2010, a two-day seismic project sent the people of North Baffin into unreasoning fits of rage.
But in and around the Inuvialuit region, eight companies conducted 11,000 kilometres worth of seismic tests using dynamite and airguns, for months on end, in the Beaufort Sea and Mackenzie Delta regions between 2000 and 2003. No one went to court to stop it.
As for mining, most Nunavut Inuit groups have spent most of the past 20 years declaring the territory open for business. Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. even bought into a uranium exploration firm, a move they may one day come to regret. By calling for a review of NTI’s four-year-old support for uranium, Cathy Towtongie, the organization’s president reveals this still remains an unresolved issue in Nunavut.
It’s no surprise, then, that ICC’s resource development summit failed to achieve a strong consensus. On the question of balancing resource development and environmental protection, no such consensus exists. Like every other modern society, Inuit and other Arctic residents must accept the reality of conflicting values.
This means a willingness to listen to the other side, and, whenever possible, a continual search for balanced compromise. Screaming matches and black-and-white thinking will not achieve this. JB