Peru Election 2006

Matthew Singer
June 3, 2006
As the election arrives, one question is how to interpret the large proportion of voters who have been reporting in polls that they intend to null their votes or vote blank instead of supporting one of the two candidates. For example, 19% of respondents in the Universidad Catolica poll conducted immediately prior to the debate and published last week said they would not vote for either candidate, three times the number of voters who were undecided (6%) and almost three times larger than the margin between the two candidates in the entire electorate (7%). The challenge for pollsters in interpreting these numbers in to determine (or guess) which of these blank votes will actually nullify their vote instead of supporting one of those candidates and which of these are “hidden votes” who simply prefer to not declare their support for one of the candidates.
In recent fieldwork, I was able to obtain a portion of the results of the before mentioned survey as part of an ongoing project on economic voting. I do not have measures of voters’ policy preferences at this time, only measures of voters’ demographic characteristics and employment status. However, this
data also allow us to perform a simple analysis of the choice between voting for Humala or Garcia or in blank. I should emphasize, however, that these statistical results are very preliminary and should be read with some caution but they do seem to be robust to model specification.
First, the model of support for Humala does not yield many surprising results that go against popular wisdom or commentary. All else equal, Humala supporters tend to be pessimistic with respect to their personal economic situation in the upcoming year, lower class, on the left of the ideological
scale, male, and (surprisingly to me at least) better educated than Garcia supporters. Evaluations of the national economy and employment status (whether or not the voter is unemployed or employed in the informal sector) do not have an independent effect on voter choices.
Interestingly, however, many of the factors that predict support for Humala also predict that voters will vote in blank. Specifically, the model predicts that voters who have negative evaluations of the nation economy or of their own economic prospects, who are leftist in ideological orientation, and who are
better educated are more likely to vote in blank than to support either candidate. More specifically, voters on the middle-left of the ideological spectrum are more likely to nullify their vote than to support either candidate. In addition, those with the most negative economic evaluations are substantially more likely to cast a blank vote. Finally, the most educated voters also tended to nullify their vote.
These three results suggest that a large number of voters who otherwise might have been part of Humala’s block, according to this preliminary analysis, have declared their intention to instead nullify their vote. The question is whether these results reflect 1) the failure of Humala to animate a substantial proportion of votes that were available to him, resulting perhaps even in blank votes costing him the presidency or 2) the existence of a large hidden vote for his candidacy who are identifying themselves as blank voters. The first possibility is especially interesting as Humala’s campaign between rounds has been to focus on mobilizing his base instead of reaching out to swing voters in the middle of the spectrum but his campaign appears (if the polling data is accurate) to still be losing ideological moderates that he has not targeted and also the economically pessimistic voters that his campaign claims to represent. This question of interpretation cannot be answered by statistics, however, but
will be resolved over the next few days as votes are counted.

Alan pide no votar en blanco o viciado
Por Enrique Patriau
La Republica
3 de junio del 2006, p. 3.
AD PORTAS DEL DÍA D • Candidato presidencial aprista invocó a la serenidad del electorado • Recibió en su oficina a representante del PSOE español y a la Misión de Observadores de la OEA • Inició etapa de espera almorzando en restaurante de Pueblo Libre con su familia.
García recibió a Lloyd Axworthy, jefe de la Misión de Observación OEA.
A escasas horas de la decisiva segunda vuelta electoral, el candidato presidencial del Apra, Alan García Pérez, pidió a la ciudadanía a no votar en blanco ni viciado.
¿Por qué razón? De acuerdo con el ex presidente, ello solamente favorecería a una “opción no democrática”.
“El voto en blanco o viciado es un derecho constitucional, es cierto. Pero en este momento, tenemos que elegir (…) Finalmente, voten por quien sea, pero voten”, dijo.
El de ayer fue el último día previo a las elecciones en que García pudo dirigirse a los peruanos. Y lo aprovechó bastante bien.
Por la mañana, ofreció entrevistas a CPN Radio y RRP Noticias. En ambos hizo un resumen de sus principales propuestas de gobierno, las que se encargó de pregonar durante toda la campaña.
“Estas son mis últimas palabras antes de esperar el resultado que Dios todopoderoso y la voluntad del pueblo aguardan para el domingo”, dijo García en RPP.
Ahora solamente le resta esperar si el triunfo le sonríe mañana o, como ocurrió en el 2001, resulta nuevamente vencido.
Serenidad y confianza
García envió un mensaje de confianza a quienes lo apoyarán mañana con su voto, pero también invocó a la serenidad de todos los peruanos. Reconoció, además, que la campaña se fue calentando paulatinamente, por eso solicitó tranquilidad en esta hora decisiva para nuestro futuro.
El candidato consideró “natural” que a pocas horas de las elecciones se “saquen los cuchillos”, y felicitó a los dirigentes del Apra que, según su juicio, actuaron con “cordura y prudencia”.
Se refugia en los suyos
1] Alan García recibió en su oficina de campaña, en el distrito de San Isidro, a la re-presentante del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), Trinidad Jiménez. Cabe seña-
lar que ella fue una de las invitadas al mitin de cierre de campaña del Apra, celebrado el jueves en la noche.
2] Para despejar las tensiones propias de la campaña electoral, García almorzó ayer con toda su familia en un restaurante de Pueblo Libre.
3] La oficina de prensa del Apra todavía no ha informado cuál será el rol de actividades de García para mañana. Sin embargo, lo más probable es que desayune con su familia en San Isidro (una de las costumbres electorales peruanas) y acuda a votar hacia el mediodía en el colegio Scipión Llona, ubicado en el distrito de Miraflores.