Archive for March, 2006
Catholic University Urban National Poll, March 24-26, 2006: Humala in First Place
The latest poll by the Catholic University, conducted between 24 and 26 March, finds Ollanta Humala in first place with 31 percent of the valid vote, followed by Lourdes Flores with 27 percent of respondents saying they intend to vote for her, and 20 percent of the decided voters supporting Alan Garcia.
The finding largely replicates other recent polls, including the last APOYO poll, at least in the order of candidates. If the PUCP poll is right, the chances are there will be a second round and the two main contenders will be Humala and Flores. An outright first round victory by either is unlikely.
The PUCP survey also probed intentions for a second round. In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Ollanta Humala, Flores would win with 55 percent to 45 percent of the vote for Humala.
In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Alan Garcia, the margin of victory for Flores would be even greater: 59 to 41 percent.
In a runoff between Humala and Garcia, Humala would win 53 percent of the vote, and Garcia would lose with 47 percent.
A key reason for the likely success of Flores in a second round, according to this poll, is the fact that Flores provokes less negative reactions than Humala or Garcia–especially among women, youth, and people in Lima (particularly the more affluent).
51 percent of those polled said they would never vote for Humala, versus 38 percent who feel that way about Flores. 56 percent would never vote for Garcia.
It should be remembered, however, that projections about how people would vote in a second round are highly speculative and can change.
The next congress is unlikely to provide a majority for the governing party. The percent of voters who say they will vote for Unidad Nacional candidates for congress is 16.1 percent. Those who will vote for APRA candidates are 15.1 percent of the electorate. 14.1 percent of the electorate plans to vote for UPP. An impressive 9.4 percent of voters say they will vote for the Alianza para el Futuro, the Fujimorista party led by Martha Chavez.
Sample: 1,945 individuals interviewed in 86 districts in 24 urban provinces in 18 departments across the country, representing 66.5% of the electoral population. Margin of error +/-2.2%. Download file
Peru: Aires de segunda vuelta en maratonica eleccion
Marta Lillo Bustos
Diario Financiero
31 de Marzo del 2006, pp. 51-2.
Download file 1
Download file 2
The Lure of Populism
DeShazo, Peter. Elections in Peru: The Lure of Populism. Americas Program Hemisphere Focus, Volume XIV, Issue 2.
Download file
Coup veteran closes in on Peru’s left flank
According to Marina Jimenez of The Globe and Mail, “Mr. Humala, 43, is riding a wave of regional discontent with the neo-liberal policies of privatization and free trade. While the Andean country of 27 million has experienced solid economic growth for five consecutive years — 7 per cent last year — the benefits have not filtered down to the poor majority living in the shantytowns and the highlands.”
OAS Obervation Mission Calls for Respect and Tolerance in this Election
In a press comunique, the Organization of American States Observation Mission has made a call for respect and tolerance to all political actors.
Asociación Peruana de Investigación de Mercados (APEIM) Responds to Alan García’s Allegations
Alan Garcia has questioned the findings of some polls and accussed pollsters to favour Lourdes Flores with their results. Bernardo Verjovski, President of the Peruvian Association of Market Research (APEIM), has informed the National Election Board (JNE) of critical errors in the implementation and measurement of polls by IDICE. IDICE is a company not affiliated with APEIM and their findings should be read with some skepticism.
Proposed Military Justice to be Evaluated by Constitutional Tribunal
El procurador del Ministerio Público, Rolando Martel, ha solicitado al Tribunal Constitucional que examine propuesta ley de justicia militar que podria abrir la posibilidad de que militares en actividad ocupen cargos como la presidencia de la corte suprema.
Primeros resultados de la investigación a Ollanta Humala por violación a los DDHH se verían en julio
ONPE responds to Allegations of Possible Fraud
During an interview with Canal N, retired General Ludwig Essenwanger, former intelligence chief and advisor on defense issues for candidate Ollanta Humala, suggested the possibility of a popular uprising if there were indications of fraud in this election, as suggested during a rally by candidate Humala. In a press conference, Magadalena Chu, ONPE Chief, responded to Ollanta Humala’s Claim of Fraud assuring elections will take place according to the law.
Ollanta Humala’s Claim of Fraud Rejected by Other Candidates
Ollanta Humala’s claim that his movement will be the victim of a fraud if members of the armed forces supporting his candidacy cannot vote on April 9 has been roundly rejected by other candidates.
Interview with Ollanta Humala by Financial Times
Peru nationalist targets global mining groups
By Hal Weitzman in Tacna, southern Peru
Financial Times.com, March 30 2006 03:00
“Ollanta Humala, the frontrunner in Peru’s presidential elections, has vowed to alter contracts with foreign investors that are currently ex-empt from paying royalties, a move that would affect global miners such as Newmont, BHP Billiton, Phelps Dodge, Falconbridge and Barrick. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Humala also pledged to introduce “21st-century nationalisation” and said he would refuse to sign the trade deal Peru has agreed with Washington. In addition, he promised to restrict imports from China, limit Chilean investment in Peru and end US-sponsored eradication of coca, the raw material for cocaine.”
Ollanta Humala’s Record of Military Service
Investigative journalist Edmundo Cruz describes what we know–and what we do not know–about Ollanta Humala’s 25 years of military service.
Source: La República, 29 de marzo del 2006
Natale Amprimo Challenges ONPE Resolution
Natale Amprimo, candidate for Alianza para el Progreso, challenged the ONPE resolution that allows the votes for the president, congress, and Andean parliament to be counted sequentially. According to Mr. Amprimo, the ONPE should not separate the three forms with voting results (actas) because this opens the door to fraud and chaos in the process of scrutinizing the votes. He claims the ONPE is not providing a guarantee of transparency in the election. Amprimo´s action came shortly after a spokesperson for the National Election Board (JNE) had sounded the alarm that the ONPE resolution could be subject to a legal challenge. The ONPE has proposed to count the votes sequentially, starting with the presidential election, in order to be able to offer official (as opposed to exit poll) results on the same day as the election.
Minister of Defense, Marciano Rengifo: Only 35% of the Armed Forces will Vote
According to the Minister of Defense, Marciano Rengifo, only about 35 percent of the military will vote on April 9. There will be a major mobilization of the armed forces into the interior of the country. Only about 33,000 members of the armed forces will be where they are registered according to their identity cards. The Minister denied reports that the military intelligence service is following Ollanta Humala’s campaign activities.
Altos oficiales del ejército opinan de Ollanta Humala
There is strong resistance to the candidacy of Ollanta Humala in the upper ranks of Peru’s Armed Forces.
Fernando Olivera Shows Video Linking Humala Brothers
Fernando Olivera Vega, head of the Frente Independiente Moralizador, played a video to the press, complete with gruesome images and spine-chilling music, which purported to show that the brothers Ollanta and Antauro Humala are two sides of the same coin. Notwithstanding the theatrics, some commentators were nonplused by the lack of new information.
Conecta Asociados National Poll, March 23-25, 2006: Ollanta Humala maintains Clear Lead
According to a national poll by Conecta Asociados, Ollanta Humala holds first place with 34.3 percent of the vote; Lourdes Flores is in second place with 27.7 percent of the vote; and Alan Garcia is in third place with 20.6 percent. Since the poll was conducted after controversial statements made by Humala’s parents, it would appear that they did not affect his image. Download file
Según la encuesta nacional de Conecta Asociados elaborada en exclusiva para el diario Perú.21, Ollanta Humala se mantiene en el primer lugar con el 34.3%, con una diferencia de 7 puntos de su más cercano rival, Lourdes Flores con el 27.7% y en tercer lugar, alejado 14 puntos del primero, Alan García con 20.6% de los votos válidos. En el caso de una segunda vuelta entre Humala con Flores Nano, habría un empate técnico, porque el primero obtendría el 39% y la segunda el 41%.
Álvaro and Mario Vargas Llosa on Ollanta Humala
Mario Vargas Llosa and son Alvaro have commented on the candidacy of Ollanta Humala. They warn that Humala represents a threat to Peru’s fragile democracy.
Ollanta Humala & Nadine Heredia in Magaly Tve
Source: Magaly Tve
Last night Ollanta Humala and Nadine Heredia showed audiences their personal side during an interview in Magaly Medina’s show Magaly Tve. They talked about how they met, their children, their relationship. Ms. Heredia sang and was very lively. Humala showed a softer, less confrontational image.
Interview with Susana Villarán
Carlos Tapia sobre Ollanta Humala y la libertad de prensa
Daniel Abugattas: A Loose Cannon is Fired
A few days after an interview with La Republica, Daniel Abugattas was replaced as spokesperson for UPP. President Alejandro Toledo did not take kindly to the suggestions that his wife, first lady Eliane Karp, is an “hija de puta” (literally, daughter of a bitch). Abugattas has demonstrated a procllivity to make unfortunate off-the-cuff remarks. In this case he apologized, but the damage was done.
El Peligro de la Asamblea Constituyente
Julio F. Carrión
Profesor de Ciencias Políticas y Relaciones Internacionales
Universidad de Delaware, USA
Con escasos días antes del 9 de abril, la gran mayoría de los peruanos tiene una idea muy clara acerca de por quién va a votar. Muchos lo harán por Ollanta Humala, quién ha prometido llamar a una asamblea constituyente apenas asuma el poder. Si las encuestas recientes son correctas, existe un amplio apoyo popular a esta idea. De convocarse dicha asamblea, que probablemente producirá una constitución a gusto del presidente, el Perú seguramente volverá a caer en el grupo de países que experimentan un fenómeno contemporáneo muy peculiar: el autoritarismo de origen electoral.
Leemos en los diarios en estos días que el señor Lukashenko, presidente de Bielorrusia desde 1994, trata por medios violentos de mantenerse en el poder. La ironía es que Lukashenko ganó su primera elección en unos comicios impecables y amparado en una plataforma de lucha contra la corrupción. Después de su elección convocó a sucesivos plebiscitos para cambiar la constitución y poder ser reelegido repetidamente. El parecido con lo sucedido en nuestro país en la década del noventa es innegable. Y es también parecido a lo sucedido en muchos otros países de diversas regiones del mundo. El patrón, con algunas variantes, es siempre el mismo: el candidato anti-sistema es elegido abrumadoramente, y una vez en la presidencia usa su apoyo popular—vía plebiscitos o asambleas constituyentes—para cambiar las reglas de juego que lo llevaron al poder, reducir la competencia política, y perpetuarse en el poder. Hugo Chávez en Venezuela, Fujimori en nuestro país, y un gran número de presidentes de las repúblicas que fueron parte de la Unión Soviética, son ejemplos de este tipo de gobierno.
El problema es que una vez que estos autócratas son elegidos, es muy difícil sacarlos del poder vía elecciones. A diferencia de las dictaduras tradicionales, estos gobiernos mantienen las formas de la democracia, pero la vacían de todo contenido. El objetivo es reducir y si es posible eliminar la competencia política sin recurrir a métodos abiertamente represivos. En lugar de balas se usan votos. Para conseguir los votos se utiliza el erario nacional (y a veces la ayuda extranjera) para financiar programas de ayuda social. Y para persuadir a los que dudan siempre hay dinero contante y sonante. Y si hay que usar balas, se usan de manera esporádica y siempre a través de terceros, buscando proteger al presidente de cualquier acusación. FONCODES, Montesinos, el grupo Colina, todos ellos fueron mecanismos para asegurar el poder de Fujimori. A pesar de la vigilancia internacional, y la movilización nacional, fue imposible remover a Fujimori a través elecciones en el año 2000. Tuvimos que esperar a una crisis interna del propio gobierno.
Al comienzo, estos candidatos a autócratas se rodean de tecnócratas y figuras de trayectoria democrática que puedan darle cierta seriedad y respetabilidad. El primer consejo de ministros de Fujimori estuvo compuesto por muchas personas respetables. Conforme avanza el proyecto autoritario, sin embargo, estas personas son descartadas sin miramientos, y los que quedan resultan que no eran ni tan respetables ni tan demócratas como se creía inicialmente.
Ollanta Humala parece destinado a ganar la primera vuelta y probablemente gane la segunda vuelta también. Su candidatura esta rodeada de alguna gente que cree con sinceridad que su gobierno pondrá al Perú en el camino de la justicia social. Ojala que no olviden lo que decía Amartya Sen, que la falta de democracia agrava las desigualdades sociales. Me temo que muchos de ellos serán descartados una vez que se acabe su utilidad, y serán reemplazados por sicofantes. El propio partido Unión por el Perú será descartado cuando Ollanta llegue al poder, como lo son los cohetes propulsores una vez que logran colocar a la nave en el espacio.
Existen varios indicios que indican que un triunfo de Ollanta Humala pondría a la democracia peruana—deficiente, débil e insensible frente a los pobres, pero democracia al fin—en peligro. Ollanta Humala ha anunciado su decisión de convocar a una asamblea constituyente apenas se haga cargo del poder. Esta es una propuesta peligrosísima porque las experiencias recientes en el Perú y otras partes del mundo indican que es el mecanismo que inicia el proceso de autoritarismo político. La constituyente fujimorista creó una superpresidencia y permitió que Fujimori pusiera gente de su confianza en los demás poderes del estado. Como resultado tuvimos un nuevo Jurado Nacional de Elecciones y una nueva Corte Suprema de Justicia. Todos sabemos como acabó esa historia. Ollanta Humala puede fácilmente usar los poderes que le da la actual constitución para intentar un proyecto autoritario. Pero sus intenciones se verían obstruidas por el hecho que, a diferencia de 1993, él no puede fácilmente y de un solo tirón imponer a gente de su confianza en los otros poderes del estado. Pero lo podría hacer si se convocara a una constituyente y se aprobara una nueva constitución.
Por esta razón, a pesar de todos los defectos de la actual constitución, debemos oponernos vigorosamente a que se convoque a una nueva asamblea constituyente. Si el nuevo congreso aprueba semejante ley, el Tribunal Constitucional debiera declararla inconstitucional. Que no cometa el error que se cometió en Venezuela. Sí tal decisión genera una crisis política, mejor ahora que después, cuando Ollanta Humala se haya asegurado y consolidado en el poder.
Mi propuesta es bastante simple: para proteger la naciente democracia, el nuevo presidente debe gobernar con las mismas reglas con las que fue elegido. Es un reclamo mínimo para garantizar la equidad en la competencia política y la continuidad del juego democrático.
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Julio Carrión, one of the leading experts on Peruvian politics, is editor of the recently published volume The Fujimori Legacy (Penn State University Press, 2006). In this commentary, entitled “The Danger of a Constituent Assembly,” Carrión argues that Ollanta Humala’s proposal for a constituent assembly to reform Peru’s constitutional order would open the door to the construction of an electoral-authoritarian regime. As the experience of the Fujimori regime demonstrated, and as the current struggle in Belarus dramatizes, elected autocrats can be difficult to dislodge.
On Martin Tanaka’s Analysis of the Prospects for a Second Round
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 28, 2006
The final weeks of this campaign may define whether Lourdes Flores or Alan Garcia enter the second round against Ollanta Humala. As Fernando Tuesta said last night on Prensa Libre with Rosa Maria Palacios, two things seem almost certain: there will be a second round and Humala will be in the second round.
In an interview in La Republica, Martin Tanaka notes that Alan Garcia has grown very slowly in the polls, while Lourdes Flores continues to have lower negatives. This could be the decisive. He attributes the slow decline of Lourdes Flores to her choice of running mates (both vice presidential and congressional). When asked by the interviewer whether the problems facing Flores might be more structural, Tanaka says that the frustration of the popular sectors does not express itself in a single attitude of rejection, some sectors are more aggressive than others. However, the impression that has developed is that Flores is the candidate of Lima and Humala the candidate of the provinces. Finally, Tanaka says that the alliances in the second round are unlikely to be decisive. The leaders of the parties have little say over how their followers will vote.
I would add a couple of things to Tanaka’s analysis. First, Flores has failed to give a face to popular frustration with the conditions of everyday life for the majority of people in this country. In an interview with Flores on Dos Dedos de Frente on Saturday, Augusto Alvarez Rodrich and Juan Carlos Tafur hammered away at the lack of an emotional connection between Flores and the electorate. One of the points they made was that Flores has not reacted to the attacks against her, even vile personal attacks. She has chosen to take the high road and to run a campaign based on optimism and a renewal of hope. I think that the weakness of such a strategy is that it does not allow her to tap into popular sentiment of outrage against the status quo. When Eliane Karp attacked Flores for not knowing what it is like to give birth in the unsafe and unsanitary conditions in which indigenous women live, Flores had the opportunity to attack the frivolity, inefficacy, and indifference of the Toledo government. Yet she did not. Instead, she has allowed Humala and Garcia to monopolize the outrage against Toledo.
The second point I would make is to agree that even APRA’s leaders are unlikely to be able to direct their voters in a second round. That said, one factor that could be important, if not decisive, is the search for governing coalitions. An APRA-UN alliance could well hold a working majority in congress. This could enable the leader of either of those groups to offer the electorate the promise that, if elected to the executive, she or he would be able to command a majority in congress. Jorge del Castillo has already said that he APRA will not make the mistake it made in 1990 when it supported Fujimori in a second round.*
A majority coalition could be helpful to the runner-up because it seems unlikely that the leader of UPP will be able to construct a governing majority. First, he is highly confrontational. Second, he is already talking about a constituent congress or constituent assembly that open the door to a period of serious constitutional crisis. Humala is more likely to want to follow the path of Chavez and to use the process of constitutional reform to centralize executive power and attack the traditional political class.
* “Apra promete estar al lado de la democracia si no pasa a segunda vuelta,” Gestión, 24 de marzo del 2006, p. 6. Del Castillo said: “ha pasado hace 15 años y el outsider (Alberto Fujimori) no resultó ser tan outsider, por el contrario, creo que gobernó con el establishment, con los grupos del poder económico…” He went on to say “Yo creo que es real el peligro antidemocrático, el peligro totalitario es real, no es un invento, entonces, obviamente creo que hay que esperar el desenvolvimiento de la primera vuelta y en la segunda evaluar y sentarse a conversar.”
Would the Left Support Ollanta Humala in a Second Round? Not Until He Clarifies his Role in Madre Mia
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 28, 2006
Ollanta Humala is seeking second round support from parties of the left, especially the Partido Socialista and the Movimiento Nuevo Izquierda. These parties are reluctant, primarily because of the doubts about Humala’s human rights record. Susana Villaran travelled to Madre Mia to hear the testimony of victims of human rights abuses. Humala continues to insist that the judiciary will determine his guilt or innocence. Humala’s human rights sigma will cost him left-wing votes that could matter in a second round.
In an interview in Cuarto Poder on Sunday night, Humala appeared evasive on the issue of his actions as commander of the Madre Mia base. He refused to respond directly to questions about his involvement in specific cases of abuse that form the basis for charges that have been brought against him. He said that Argentine President Néstor Kirchner told him he would not have met with him had there been any doubt about his involvement in human rights abuses. This suggests that Kirchner knows more about what happened in Madre Mia than just about everyone in Peru, or that Humala has misconstrued what Kirchner said. One could imagine Kirchner saying in very diplomatic language that if Humala had committed human rights abuses he would not meet with him. One has to wonder what kind of diplomatic relations Peru will have with neighboring countries if this issue is not clarified before an eventual electoral victory.
In another context, Humala apparently suggested that the judicial investigations into his actions in Madre Mia have found no evidence of wrong-doing. This was reported yesterday night in Cecilia Valenzuela’s Ventana Indiscreta. In fact, the investigations are ongoing and the principals are guarding their silence.
As Rosa Maria Palacios suggested in Prensa Libre last night, Humala has much to gain from telling a credible story about his role in Madre Mia, one that no doubt would cast him in a patriotic light. The continuing evasiveness, however, makes him look guilty.
The reticence of the left has infuriated Humala, who has called its leaders “old cacique” (or bosses) who sabotaged the United Left in the 1980s and were not of the stature of Alfonso Barrantes (mayor of Lima in the 1980s). While the Partido Socialist has been reluctant to ally itself with Humala, there has been some talk of an alliance with Paniagua’s Frente de Centro. Susana Villaran has rejected this possibility.
Markets See Danger in Possible Humala Victory
According to the Wall Street Journal, the markets have recognized the danger of a victory by Ollanta Humala. The wake-up call came with the publication of the recent APOYO poll on Monday, March 20. This poll was followed by another APOYO poll yesterday confirming the trend. The so-called “Humala effect” resulted in a 4 percent drop in the Lima Stock Exchange index and “sparked a sell-off in the Peruvian sol as well,” according to Mary O’Grady.
A recent meeting between the economic team of the UPP and the Sociedad Nacional de Mineria, Petroleo y Energia (SNMPE) left local business leaders “very worried.”
Some of our readers are financial analysts. Here is what one of them recently wrote to us, on condition of anonymity:
“It seems that Humala’s campaign is gathering a lot of steam. The Peruvian stock market and currency, especially of late, have been selling off on the news. Humala (at least in my eyes and in the eyes of a lot of my friends that manage money and invest in companies that have mining operations in Latin America) brings great uncertainty to the downside. In Peru, I now not only have to worry about the individual merits of the investment, but also the risk that I wake up one morning and Latin America is in disarray because these left leaning countries (including Peru) decide that state run enterprises make more sense. I think the history of nationalization and its chilling effects on long term economic growth and income levels are clear and hopefully even radicals, if they truly have the best interest of the country at heart, understand that it is a mistake. Expropriation is a low probability event, but that probability ticks higher now, which I think will hurt Peru from global capital attraction perspective, at least until Humala can be watched for awhile. Peruvian credit spreads are now trading much wider than countries whose economic and political climate I considered far inferior just a few months ago.
“One could live with higher taxes and a less business friendly environment, especially if somehow these frictional costs on capitalism actually raised the quality of life for the poor and lower classes. From my view, it seems that the Peruvian economy should already be swimming in revenues from what is extracted from mining companies and other natural resource players in the country – a good deal of the problem is not revenues but ineffective governments not redeploying receipts into programs that help uplift the poor (easier said than done I know)…Now, in general commodity prices have been quite strong and nearly all mines should be profitable should these prices hold, so there will be some tolerance on existing investments, but I think the pace of new investment will slow short-term as people like me are unwilling to commit more capital.”
UPDATED – IDICE National Poll, March 20-22, 2006: Tight Race with Humala in First Place
Encuesta de IDICE del Peru SAC: Peru: Intencion de Voto a Nivel Nacional: Del 20 al 22 de Marzo 2006 Download file
Update March 28: Bernardo Verjovski, President of the Peruvian Association of Market Research (APEIM), has informed the National Election Board (JNE) of critical errors in the implementation and measurement of polls by IDICE. An investigative report by Peru 21 published today, raises questions about the methodology and funding sources of IDICE polls in the last four months.
Jaime Bayly Responds to Mrs. Humala
Jaime Bayly has written an opinion piece in La Tercera responding to Elena de Humala, Mother of Candidate Ollanta Humala, calling for homosexuals to be shot. The statement outraged the GLBT community in Lima last week.
The Blog Blabbeando: Thoughts of a Latino gay dude in Nueva York has an article discusssing Jaime Bayly’s piece: Update: Peru’s next president won’t shoot gays (but his mom would)
Antauro Humala Statements
Datum National Poll: Humala holds the lead with 31%
La última encuesta elaborada por la empresa Datum, revelada ayer en el programa “La ventana indiscreta” confirmó a Ollanta Humala en el primer lugar con el 31%, seguido por Lourdes Flores con el 26% y Alan García con 21% de la intención de voto. Este cuestionario electoral fue respondido por 1,350 personas en trece regiones del país.
JNE-ONPE: One or Three Acts?
In todays editorial, La Republica emphasizes the need for the ONPE and the JNE to reach agreement on whether there the ballot consists of one or three acts.
APOYO National Poll, March 22-24, 2006: Trends Hold, with Humala leading followed by Flores and Garcia
Source: La República, 27 de marzo del 2006
This APOYO Opinión y Mercados survey was conducted exclusively for America Television. Universe: 2000 people in 178 districts in 113 localities in 79 provinces in all departments. Margin of error: +/-2.2%. The sample represents 81% of the electoral population of Peru. Download file
The trend from the last APOYO poll appears stable. In the words of Alfredo Torres, the director of APOYO, the big news is no news. Humala has not shot to within grasp of a first round victory, Garcia has not caught up with Flores, and Flores has nor recovered first place. Humala has a clear lead in rural areas and Flores in Lima. In a second round, Flores would win over Garcia or Humala; Humala would win over Garcia.
UPDATED – Local Media Concerned with Nationalist Government Plan
The Radio and Television Association of Peru (ARTV) published a communiqué on March 22 expresing serious concerns with Ollanta Humala´s government plan. These concerns have been deepened by recent statements made by Antauro Humala, brother of Ollanta, stating that radios like Radio Programas del Perú (RPP) or Cadena Peruana de Noticias (CPN) should be expropriated. Ollanta Humala has marked distance with his brother´ statements and initiatives of such nature. Rosa Maria Palacios defends freedom of the press in an editorial on March 26. Enrique Zileri, as former president of th Peruvian Press Council (PCC) demanded the candidate Ollanta Humala to sharply distinguish his views from the ones expressed by his brother Antauro.
Court Statements by Alberto and Keiko Fujimori
Last week Alberto Fujimori, former president of Peru, declared to the Chilean judicial authorities that he met Vladimiro Montesinos after he was elected president. The statement is odd, as it is common knowledge that they met after the first round of the presidential election in 1990.
Journalist Angel Paez claims Keiko Fujimori lied about how she paid for her studies in the United States. She is currently a front-running candidate for congress.
UPDATED – Unwelcome Political Advertising during “Clásico”
Source: La Primera, 26 de marzo del 2006
Source: La Primera, 27 de marzo del 2006
A publicity stunt backfired when a motorized parachute bearing the name OIlanta landed in the middle of the “classic” football game between rivals Alianza and Universitario, causing a brief suspension of the game while the paramotor driver was booed off the field.
ONPE calls for vote in three acts; JNE for one single act
Yet another dispute has broken out between the ONPE and JNE. This one is over whether the ballot consists of a single act or three separate acts. ONPE upholds the view that on April 9 there will be three separate elections (one for president, one for congress, and one for the Andean parliament). This interpretation enables ONPE to tear off the presidential act and count all the presidential votes first (thus enabling a quick dissemination of the results). The JNE insists that there is one election and all votes have to be counted simultaneously before official results can be released.
OAS Electoral Observation Mission Begins its Work in Lima Today
Two Different Views on the Current Campaign
Interviews with José Miguel Morales (CONFIEP) and Federico Salazar with different assessments of the current electoral campaign.
University Alas Peruanas National Poll, March 19, 2006: Humala in Firm First Position
Source: La Primera, 26 de marzo del 2006
Universe: 5,071 interviews in Lima and rural areas across the country. Margin of error +/- 3.5 to 5%.
Note: We were not aware of Universidad Alas Peruanas conducting polls.
Editorial from El Comercio Generates an Internet Campaign
Pedraglio on the next congress
Interview with Ollanta Humala
In this interview with Peru 21, Ollanta Humala puts distance between the statements made by his parents and his political project.
Biography: Lourdes Flores
Biography: Lourdes Flores
Humala: “I want to command the people”
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 25, 2006
Last night Ollanta Humala attended an event organized by Edmundo Murrugarra, the coordinator of the Education Commission of the Government Plan of the Unión Por el Perú. The event was held under a big “Convention Tent” behind the Hotel Crillón in downtown Lima. Later, Humala led a rally in Comas, on Kilometer 12 of the Tupac Amaru highway that cuts through the northern cone of Lima.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
The evening began with over one thousand people under the tent behind the Crillón listening to campaign music and chanting slogans. One of the songs written for Humala’s campaign talked of the “sad history of Peru,” and “how our riches will be ours” when Humala is elected president. The crowd was primed to respond to the words “In education?” with “Ollanta Revolution!” Humala was late arriving, and the event which was supposed to begin at 6 started after 7 pm.
During the wait someone at the microphone mentioned the presence of the international press, which received a polite applause, something the local press might not have received, as there is great animosity toward the local media in the Humala camp. The editor of “Ollanta Perú” complained bitterly about the local media, saying there would have to be a Venezuela-type crackdown if Humala is elected. The local press was also difficult to manage. They mobbed the podium, delaying the event because they refused for some time to step down so the assembled crowd could also see the speakers.
When Humala finally arrived he was swarmed by enthusiastic supporters and carried forward to the podium where he sat flanked by his team, including VP candidate Gonzalo García. García was the first to speak, and he said that a victory for Humala would initiate a “great transformation” with a “rigorous and concrete” platform for change. “Se siente, se siente, Ollanta Presidente” cheered the crowd (“you can feel it, you can feel it, Ollanta is president”). He then introduced Edmundo Murrugarra, as someone who is honest and combative, as a teacher from Cajamarca, and the person who helped develop the educational program.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Murrugarra gave a florid speech, very combative and dramatic, with language laced with utopian idealism and calls for sacrifice. Formerly a Senator for the United Left in the 1980s, Murrugarra remains a firebrand. He referred to the dreams of Símon Rodríguez, who accompanied Símon Bolívar, “the Liberator,” in his travels, and said these dreams were being realized by the call for change of the teachers in the movement behind Humala. His discourse was not about the 19th century, however, for he argued that investing in education was necessary to compete in the world today. He ended with a rhetorical flourish, saying to Humala “you have commanded troops, now you must command teachers.”
With that, Humala took the microphone. Appealing to the teachers in the crowd, he said his mother was a teacher and his early memory of her going to work pregnant with him, sitting in the classroom doing his own homework while his mother was teaching in the early evening, is the epitome of dignity in that profession. Referring to himself in the third person, he called for “applause for all of you, not comandante Humala.” He said that as a father he is concerned for the education of his children, and so should the state. Quality education should not be only for the elite. As a soldier he has traveled to the border zones and has seen Peruvian kids who sing the hymn of Colombia or Brazil rather than Peru. 3 million people are illiterate, in the 21st century.
Photo: F. Bazo
Humala argued that voters are getting more sophisticated and cannot be tricked by handing out t-shirts at election time. He told a joke about a politician who goes to a remote area and promises a hospital, and school and a bridge. When told there is no need for a bridge because there is no river in the area, the politician promises to build a river. Rejecting such cynicism, and saying he would not offer “populistoid measures” (medidas populacheras) Humala said people want work with dignity, and dignity means making others respect you. This is the essence of the “great transformation” he proposes. How can you explain to the child of a heroic rondero in Cajamarca that he will not get a good education when the Yanacocha mine is one of the wealthiest gold mines in the world?
It is worth noting that this highly charged image helps explain Humala’s success. The rondero is a symbol of the rural patriot, or “hero,” who has fought for his country. The gold mine symbolizes prosperity and the global economy, and the child the hope for Peru’s future. Some observers have been puzzled by why Peruvians would “jump into the void” given how well the economy is doing. Humala is acknowledging that there is prosperity, and using it to proclaim the need for redistribution.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
The objective of his government would be democratization of education, so that quality education reaches all. He showed the most emotion during his speech when he spoke of children forced to find a living on the streets and asked how the government can be insensitive to this. He then turned on “aged politicians, who have maserated over time,” and lobbies in congress and inside the palace of government who demand “laws with proper names” for the benefit of a few firms or individuals.
Humala said he and his team are challenging powerful interests not out of a suicidal mission, but because it is necessary for the rich to pay their taxes so the state can assume its responsibility, and he called for those who earn more to pay more. He also called for a campaign against corruption and attacked the high incomes of members of congress. He asked the crowd “how much do you teachers earn?” “800 Soles” came back the reply (about $240 US). “800 dollars?” said Humala. “No, Soles!” came back the reply. “How can we accept and trust elites who earn 10,000 dollars?” He then complained that members of congress get 100,000 soles (almost $30,000 US) to move out of their offices at the end of their terms. How much does a teacher get when they move between jobs? Nothing.
Saying that many people have offered him campaign support in return for agreement to favor them with laws once in power, Humala claimed to reject all such deals. “I want to arrive in power without owing anything to anyone.” He then railed against the dog piling on his candidacy that is occurring, saying that there is a “TCO” (a “todos contra Ollanta,” or “all against Ollanta”) movement being born and that there is “political terrorism” being waged against him.
Said Humala: “They say I am anti-system. Yes, I am against the current system of corruption, unemployment, hopelessness. If that is the system, not only am I anti-system, I am a rebel.” “The minority wants to defend their jewelry, their estates. Fear is the last barrier that the elite erect to protect themselves.” These people, he said, want to make this election about democracy or dictatorship. “We have the dictatorship of a minority. In Peru, democracy is poverty.” In contradistinction to this, Humala called for “a democracy of the people.” “We will overcome fear to arrive at the palace…Peru is above these traditional politicians.”
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Later, in Comas, Humala largely repeated the speech, though his delivery was adapted to a crowd of thousands who had, on average, attained a lower level of education. There were a couple of lines in his speech in Comas that stood out, at least to my ears. One was a very direct appeal for voters to cast their ballots for congressional candidates of the UPP. This appeal was made while holding aloft the communal “pot” (or olla) that symbolizes UPP. Clearly, Humala is concerned about the prospect that his presidential ticket does not have congressional coattails. “I want an army of nationalists inside the congress” he said. In similarly militaristic terminology, Humala closed the rally. “I have commanded soldiers” he said. “Now I want to command the people.”
Photo: M.A. Cameron
IDL & NDI Round Table: Political Parties and Defense Policy
National Polls: IDICE & Alas Peruana. Lima & Callao Poll: IMA
Source: La República, 25 de marzo del 2006
Note: the chart above contains samles that cover different geographic areas. The size of the samples are also different.
IMA Metropolitan Lima & Callao Poll, March 21-22, 2006: Flores in Clear Lead. Garcia & Humala Tied for Second Place
Universe: 700 interviews in Lima and Callao. Margin of error +/-3.7%. Download file
Human Rights Watch: “Military Shields Identity of Rights Abusers”
According to Human Rights Watch: “Peru’s military has systematically failed to provide courts and prosecutors with the identities of military personnel under investigation for human rights abuses committed during the country’s armed conflict.”
Electronic File Supporting Lourdes Flores Appeals to “Popular Will & Divine Justice”
You will need PowerPoint to see this file, which is circulating by email Download file
New Political Communicator for National Unity: Juan José Rendón
We have found some background information about Juan José Rendón, the new political communicator for Unidad Nacional.