Catholic University Urban National Poll, March 24-26, 2006: Humala in First Place
The latest poll by the Catholic University, conducted between 24 and 26 March, finds Ollanta Humala in first place with 31 percent of the valid vote, followed by Lourdes Flores with 27 percent of respondents saying they intend to vote for her, and 20 percent of the decided voters supporting Alan Garcia.
The finding largely replicates other recent polls, including the last APOYO poll, at least in the order of candidates. If the PUCP poll is right, the chances are there will be a second round and the two main contenders will be Humala and Flores. An outright first round victory by either is unlikely.
The PUCP survey also probed intentions for a second round. In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Ollanta Humala, Flores would win with 55 percent to 45 percent of the vote for Humala.
In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Alan Garcia, the margin of victory for Flores would be even greater: 59 to 41 percent.
In a runoff between Humala and Garcia, Humala would win 53 percent of the vote, and Garcia would lose with 47 percent.
A key reason for the likely success of Flores in a second round, according to this poll, is the fact that Flores provokes less negative reactions than Humala or Garcia–especially among women, youth, and people in Lima (particularly the more affluent).
51 percent of those polled said they would never vote for Humala, versus 38 percent who feel that way about Flores. 56 percent would never vote for Garcia.
It should be remembered, however, that projections about how people would vote in a second round are highly speculative and can change.
The next congress is unlikely to provide a majority for the governing party. The percent of voters who say they will vote for Unidad Nacional candidates for congress is 16.1 percent. Those who will vote for APRA candidates are 15.1 percent of the electorate. 14.1 percent of the electorate plans to vote for UPP. An impressive 9.4 percent of voters say they will vote for the Alianza para el Futuro, the Fujimorista party led by Martha Chavez.
Sample: 1,945 individuals interviewed in 86 districts in 24 urban provinces in 18 departments across the country, representing 66.5% of the electoral population. Margin of error +/-2.2%. Download file