Peru Election 2006

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Archive for November, 2005

IDICE Poll, November 24-27: 8 points decline for Lourdes Flores

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Lourdes Flores keeps the lead, but lost 8 points (from 34% to 26.7%) in the last IDICE poll. Valentin Paniagua showed a recovery of close to 6 points (from 8.4% to 14.1%). Humala continues his momentum (from 4.9% to 12.3%). If a second round takes place, Lourdes Flores would win comfortably over Humala and Garcia. Garcia continues stagnated.
Sample: 860 people in Lima and Callao.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 30th, 2005 at 5:56 pm

Posted in Polls - Results

Traditional Politicians, Apristas, and Outsiders

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humalahug.jpg
Source: ollantaperu.com
Why Ollanta Humala may be more than a flash in the pan
By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 30, 2005

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Written by Michael Ha

November 30th, 2005 at 9:17 am

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

ONPE verified signatures for Ollanta Humala’s party in record time

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On November 15, Ollanta Humala presented more than 295,000 signatures to register his party with JNE. In record time (see chart), ONPE took only 10 working days to verify the signatures supporting the application to register the Partido Nacionalista Peruano. So far, 30 political parties are registered to run for April elections.
firmas pn.jpg
Source: La República, 30 de noviembre del 2005

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Written by Michael Ha

November 30th, 2005 at 6:32 am

Congress will hand Fujimori files to the judiciary

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Congress has decided to hand 17 charges (denuncias constitucionales) against former president Fujimori to the judiciary (Fiscalia de la Nacion).

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Written by Michael Ha

November 29th, 2005 at 7:56 pm

Posted in Fujimori

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ONPE: Requirements to be a presidential candidate

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Written by Michael Ha

November 29th, 2005 at 11:53 am

Posted in O

Yale University Holds Forum on Fujimori

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The Yale Center for International and Area Studies will hold a forum on Fujimori on December 1, 2005.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 29th, 2005 at 11:21 am

Posted in Fujimori

Crabtree, John

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Crabtree, John. 2005. <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-protest/andean_politics_3032.jsp”>An Andean crisis of democracy , posted on November 2005, Open Democracy: Free Thinking for the World Download file

Written by Michael Ha

November 28th, 2005 at 6:01 pm

Posted in C

CPI poll, November 19-23, 2005: Humala Disputes Second Place with Garcia

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Con un notable repunte en las últimas semanas, el líder del Partido Nacionalista Peruano, Ollanta Humala, llegó al segundo lugar en intención de voto, con 15.0%, y desplazó a Alan García, que ostenta 13.4%, a solo 10.6 puntos de la candidata de Unidad Nacional, Lourdes Flores, quien sigue en el primer puesto.
La encuesta de la Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercados y Opinión Pública (CPI) fue realizada entre el 19 y el 23 de noviembre en 11 departamentos, 14 provincias y 85 distritos a 1,739 personas de todo el país. Download file

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Written by Michael Ha

November 28th, 2005 at 11:30 am

Posted in Polls - Results

Ideario del Movimiento Nacionalista Peruano

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Ideario del Movimiento Nacionalista Peruano (MNP), designed by Isaac Humala, father of Ollanta and Antauro. Among several documents, this manifesto provides an etnocacerista definition of the Peruvian society, a government policy platform for 2006-2011, and a national development program for Peru (2006-2030).

Written by Michael Ha

November 28th, 2005 at 11:15 am

Posted in Political Parties

Barometro November 2005: Humala vs Flores; 1990 all over again

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By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 26, 2005

A Barometro poll by the Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima finds Ollanta Humala eating into the support for Lourdes Flores Nano in Lima.
This poll should be read with caution. A sample size of 631 people is very small. All of them are from the Lima/Callao area, so this is not a national poll. A margin of error of 4 percent means that most of the candidates are indistinguishable.
There are, nonetheless, two things worth highlighting in this poll. First, it shows Humala in a statistical tie (with Garcia and Paniagua, both of which fall within the margin of error) for second place in Lima. Humala is thought to be strongest outside Lima in the provinces. Second, it suggests Humala is taking votes away from Flores in the poorest strata (D and E).
At the current moment, there are definite similarities with the 1990 election. A candidate strongest among affluent voters is in first place. With APRA looking like a possible contender for second place, voters are casting around for someone else. Humala is the outsider who seems capable of winning the sympathies of voters who are socially and politically excluded.
Of course, there are differences. Humala insists he is not an candidate without a program, and indeed his ideological profile is very different from Fujimori. Flores is not the disaster that Vargas Llosa was as a candidate–for one thing, she listens to the voters. Nevertheless, it is striking how the Peruvian political system tends to generate these sorts of contests. The reasons would appear to be structural.
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima, Barometro Noviembre 2005
Sample: 631 people in Metropolitan Lima and Callao, November 19-20, 2005.
ulima.gif
Source: La Republica, November 26, 2005.
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Source: El Comercio, November 26, 2005

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Written by Michael Ha

November 26th, 2005 at 4:54 am

Interview with Isaac Humala

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Written by Michael Ha

November 25th, 2005 at 7:08 pm

Posted in Political Parties

This party isn’t big enough for the two of us

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Former vice-president Maximo San Roman withdrew his candidacy in the presidential elections of April 2006 following a decision by his party, Avanza País, to include extreme nationalist Antauro Humala on the list without prior consultation.
Antauro Humala, brother of Ollanta Humala, led an assault on a police station in Andahuaylas earlier this year.
Tras haber lanzado su candidatura el pasado 6 de noviembre a las elecciones presidenciales del 2006, el ex-vicepresidente de la república Máximo San Román, anunció su retiro debido a que su partido, Avanza País, no le consultó sobre la incorporación de Antauro Humala.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 24th, 2005 at 8:21 am

Posted in Political Parties

Kuczynski comments on “The Fujimori Legacy”

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Current Peruvian Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kucynski has written a commentary on The Fujimori Legacy, about to be published by The Penn State University Press. The volume is edited by Julio Carrion.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 24th, 2005 at 6:52 am

Posted in Fujimori

DATUM National Poll, November 12-15, 2005: Flores Nano heads the pack, but could Fujimori make it into a runoff?

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According to a poll conducted by Datum Internacional which was published this week in Lima, ex-president Alberto Fujimori could make it into a second round with Lourdes Flores Nano. This assumes he is allowed to run in the elections of April 2006, and that seems both unlikely and, according to this poll, unwanted by most of the voters.
According to the survey of 1118 subjects, which was conducted between November 12 and 15, 2005, including the major cities of Peru, Fujimori and Alan Garcia are the two candidates with the highest negative ratings (68 and 69 percent respectively), while Flores Nano has both the highest overall approval rating (57 percent) and the lowest negative rating (36 percent).
A comparison with previous surveys shows that, with 30 percent of the decided vote, Flores Nano has pulled well ahead of the rest of the pack. Garcia, Paniagua, and Humala are all stuck within 2 or 3 percentage points of each other (16, 15, and 13 percent respectively). Humala continues to trend upward.
The poll also shows that Fujimori would get 17 percent of the decided vote were an election held in which he was allowed to run. That would place him in a runoff with Flores Nano who, in this scenario, would capture 25 percent of the vote. Unfortunately, the survey did not ask how voters would cast their second-round ballots. In all other runoffs, however, Flores Nano wins.
The survey has other notable findings:
— Jamie Salinas has lost momentum
— Only 3 percent of the electorate would never vote for Flores Nano
— 30 percent of the voters think Flores Nano will win
— Flores Nano is overwhelmingly popular (64 percent) among women
— Nearly half the voters (47 percent) have decided for whom they will vote
— 65 percent say Fujimori should not be allowed to run
— 70 percent say he is guilty of the charges against him
— 59 percent say his trip to Chile has hurt him
— Fujimori’s support is strongest among the D and E voters (the poorest strata)
— 74 percent of voters prefer democracy to any other system of government
Según una encuesta de la firma Datum Internacional publicada en Lima, el ex presidente Alberto Fujimori acompañaría en una segunda vuelta a Lourdes Flores Nano en caso de que fuera habilitado para participar en las elecciones de abril del 2006. Datum evaluo dos escenarios, uno con Fujimori participando y otro sin su presencia.
Muestra: 1,118 personas en Piura, Lambayeque, La Libertad, Ancash, Ayacucho, Junin, Arequipa, Cuzco, Puno, Loreto y las provincias de Lima y Callao. El sondeo se realizó entre el 12 y el 15 de noviembre del 2005, despues de la llegada de Fujimori a Chile. Download file

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Written by Michael Ha

November 23rd, 2005 at 2:12 pm

Posted in Polls - Results

Thanks to Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima

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We are grateful to Grupo de Opinión Pública (GOP) for providing us the Barometros.

Written by fabiola

November 22nd, 2005 at 6:21 am

Posted in Acknowledgments

CPI October 22-28, 2005

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Compania Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinion Publica (CPI). Estudio de Opinion Publica a nivel nacional, 22 al 28 de octubre del 2005. Muestra: 2820 adultos en 16 departamentos (38 provincias). El estudio fue realizado en exclusividad para Radio Programas del Peru (RPP) y el diario Correo Download file

Written by Michael Ha

November 21st, 2005 at 8:01 pm

Posted in Polls - Results

Alan Garcia elected as APRA’s presidential candidate

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Era un hecho. Alan García, líder del Partido Aprista Peruano, fue elegido como el candidato presidencial por tercera vez tras ganar las elecciones internas de su partido a los precandidatos apristas Luis Alvarado Contreras, Angela Valdez Olivera y Nancy García Carrillo. En Lima sufragaron alrededor de 30 mil personas y en provincias más de 100 mil electores en las 1,697 mesas instaladas en el país. De acuerdo a las primeras proyecciones, el 50% de los votos emitidos en Lima y el 25% de los votos en provincias indican que el 96% eligió a García como el candidato aprista para las próximas elecciones presidenciales del 2006.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 21st, 2005 at 3:56 pm

Posted in Political Parties

Expert explains Japanese view of Fujimori

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Yves Tiberghien is a political scientist at The University of British Columbia, currently enjoying a postdoctoral fellowship at Harvard University. As an exceptionally knowledgeable observer of Japanese politics, we asked him to explain why the Japanese public and political leadership seems to have such a positive view of Fujimori.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 20th, 2005 at 2:42 pm

Barometro Social October 29-30, 2005

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Barometro Social Octubre 2005: Campanas Electorales Estudio 287. Sample: 614 adults in 35 districts in Metropolitan Lima and Callao from all socio-economic levels. Survey was conducted on Saturday, October 29 and Sunday, October 30, 2005 Download file
Note: this survey was conducted by Universidad de Lima before the arrival of Alberto Fujimori to Chile.

Written by Michael Ha

November 19th, 2005 at 11:23 am

Posted in Polls - Results

Puno: what do people think about Fujimori’s return?

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Views from the streets of Puno about Alberto Fujimori’s arrest in Chile. Interesting link: Altiplano Politico

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Written by Michael Ha

November 18th, 2005 at 6:40 pm

Posted in Fujimori,Vox Populi

IMA November 2005: Fujimori in the polls (Lima & Callao)

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Written by Michael Ha

November 18th, 2005 at 11:34 am

Latin American ex-presidents

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An interesting analysis of Latin American ex-presidents with “a strange propensity to return and seek power again, long after their disgrace” is available at: Farce

Written by Michael Ha

November 18th, 2005 at 8:08 am

Posted in Fujimori

Japan PM does not have time to meet with President of Peru

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According to the Japan Times, the remarks from Prime Minister Koizumi confirm earlier media reports that Japan rejected Peru’s request to meet during the APEC summit.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 18th, 2005 at 7:54 am

Posted in Fujimori

IMA November 14-15, 2005 – Lima & Callao

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infografiaIMAnov05.gif
Source: La Republica, November 18, 2005
Muestra: 700 adults in 37 districts in Lima and y Callao. Interviews took place November 14-15, 2005. Download file

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Written by Michael Ha

November 18th, 2005 at 4:48 am

Posted in Polls - Results

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan: Alberto Fujimori does not receive preferential treatement

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Tomohiko Taniguchi, portavoz del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Japón, aclaró que su país no tiene interés en defender al Alberto Fujimori. En declaraciones a la agencia EFE manifestó que: “Fujimori como ciudadano japonés tiene derecho a la atención de funcionarios consulares de Japón y podrá contar con la ciudadanía japonesa hasta que decida renunciar a ella”.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 16th, 2005 at 1:26 pm

Posted in Fujimori

Ollanta Humala Gains Momentum

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aeropuerto.jpg.jpe
Source: website Partido Nacionalista Peruano
By Fabiola Bazo and Maxwell A. Cameron
November 15, 2005

In a trend that is alarming pundits, the presidential candidacy of Ollanta Humala appears to be gathering momentum. A couple of recent polls suggest that Humala has the potential to capture disaffected voters who might otherwise be inclined to support Fujimori.
According to Apoyo Opinion y Mercado, Humala has risen by three percentage points in the last month, and is now favored by 11 percent of the electorate. In the southern highlands his support reaches 23 percent and 19 percent in the central sierra.(1)
In the 1980s Peru had a strong (if not very unified) democratic left, which routinely won substantial representation in congress and municipalities throughout the nation. In the 1990s, with the rise of Fujimori, political parties of all stripes lost their claim on the allegiance of voters who, in unprecedented numbers, threw their support behind so-called “independent” candidates. Today, most voters still see themselves as independent and overwhelmingly reject party attachments. A robust majority of 60 percent locate themselves in the center of the political spectrum, according to Apoyo.(2)
That said, if you combine the 18 percent of the voters who define themselves as “center left” with the rest of the left, you get almost 40 percent of the electorate—or at least that is what the APOYO numbers suggest. In the 1980s, these voters tended to support the left or APRA and in the 1990s they were captured by Fujimori. They are among the voters who are now turning to Humala.
According to Apoyo, Humala is the only presidential candidate who a vast majority of the voters locate on the left. As many voters think Garcia is a candidate of the right as think he is a candidate of the left. This may change. Facing the threat of a new entrant into the political market place, expect Garcia to shift to the left. But Humala has something Garcia does not. As the outsider in this contest, he has less political baggage. Humala is the candidate who is least known and whose ceiling, as Peru21 editor Augusto Alvarez Rodrich argues, is hence unknown.
Humala’s left-wing credentials are called into question by editorialist Mirko Lauer who argues that the candidate represents a mix of left-wing, nationalist, and authoritarian ideas, along with a commitment to ethnic autonomy. He compares Humala to Venezuela’s Chavez. Another apt comparison is made by Carlos Tapia, who describes Humala’s thinking as a sort of “neovelasquismo” or return to the discourse of the reformist military officers who governed Peru in the 1970s (and, incidentally, are also admired by Chavez). Like Lauer, Tapia questions Humala’s democratic credentials, noting that in 2000 he did not support the OAS dialogue roundtables and rejected the accord among political forces seeking a democratic solution to the crisis. Tapia asks what Humala’s views might be on human rights violations in emergency areas where he served as an army officer.
Another poll, this one by IDICE, shows Humala growing among supporters of Fujimori in the poorer areas in the highlands. IDICE interviewed 4,950 people across the country (excluding Huancavelica, Madre de Dios, Pasco, Apurimac and Ucayali). The results of this poll seem to reinforce the view that the Humala’s Peruvian Nationalist Party (or Partido Nacionalista Peruano) has taken first place in a number of highland regions (Arequipa, Ayacucho, Cusco, Huanuco, Puno and Tacna) and in every case except Arequipa this growth has primarily come at the expense of Si Cumple. The same polling firm projects Humala’s party to take third place in congress with 18 seats, after APRA with 32 seats and Unidad Nacional, with 22 seats. Such projections are obviously premature, but they suggest Humala is becoming a force to be reckoned with.
Alvarez Rodrich argues that the a consensus among experts is that Humala’s candidacy can continue its upward trend, in part because the electorate does not yet know him very well. Once they know him better, the trend may slow down. This is not, however, a universally shared view. Juan Carlos Tafur argues that support for Humala is lowest in the polls in places where he has not yet actively campaigned. So it remains to be seen whether Humala’s fortunes will continue to rise or plateau as the campaign unfolds and Peruvians become more acquainted with the latest outsider candidate.
According to a report in La Razon, Humala regards Fujimori as his most serious rival. Fujimori’s candidacy, according to Humala, is backed by powerful economic groups. He laments the Toledo government’s emphasis on extraditing Fujimori instead of concentrating his efforts on defending Peru’s sovereignty in the dispute over maritime sea rights with Chile.
According to the survey by Apoyo, Fujimori’s arrival in the region did not result in a big spike in support for Fujimori among voters. Part of the reason seems to be that Humala’s movement is attracting Si Cumple votes outside Lima. Peruvian democracy confronts a double challenge: the possible return of Fujimori and the temptation to leap into another autocratic adventure under the guise of participatory democracy.
Note
1. Polls can be unreliable, but Apoyo is one of the more respected firms. The poll conducted this November was limited to urban areas, but it did cover major cities through the country and the sample size was 1,618 men and women above 18 years of age.
2. On this question, however, only 552 people responded, the rest refused to locate themselves on the ideological spectrum at all.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 16th, 2005 at 11:12 am

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

APRA’s proposal to engage youth in politics

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Written by Michael Ha

November 16th, 2005 at 11:11 am

March demanding Fujimori’s extradition in Lima

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Source: La República, 16 de noviembre del 2005. (Marcos Rojas y Yanina Patricio).
People marched peacefully from Plaza Dos de Mayo to Palacio de Justicia, then to the Embassy of Chile in Lima on November 15, 2005 to deliver a document demanding the extradition of Alberto Fujimori from Chile. Estimated number of participants varies from 2,000, according to El Comercio and 12,000, according to La Republica. Mario Huaman and Jose Luis Gorriti from CGTP, Francisco Soberon from Coordinadora de Derechos Humanos and other leaders accompanied the families of La Cantuta and Barrios Altos victims. It is our understanding that there were no representatives from political parties. Similar marches took place in Cuzco, Arequipa, Chiclayo y Tacna.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 16th, 2005 at 9:13 am

Posted in Fujimori

Se rechaza solicitud de extradición contra Fujimori por abandono de cargo

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La Corte Suprema de Justicia del Perú denegó el día de hoy la primera solicitud de extradición remitida por la Procuraduría Anticorrupción contra Alberto Fujimori por el presunto delito de abandono de cargo vía fax en noviembre del año 2000.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 15th, 2005 at 2:38 pm

Posted in Fujimori

Humala’s rise dismays rivals and catches the attention of others

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Ollanta Humala is running ahead of Valentín Paniagua (7.6%), presidential candidate of Frente de Centro, with 9.1%, according to the last IDICE poll. This lead has raised unhapiness among supporters of Paniagua.
Some member of the party Union por el Peru (Javier Perez de Cuellar political group) are considering an alliance with Humala.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 15th, 2005 at 1:39 pm

Posted in Political Parties

Ministry of Foreign Relations of Japan: Questions on the state of diplomatic relations between Japan and Peru

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Written by Michael Ha

November 15th, 2005 at 11:16 am

Posted in Fujimori

APOYO November 10-11, 2005 National Survey

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Apoyo Opinion y Mercado, Opinion data: Resumen de encuestas a la opinion publica, ano 5, # 63
Encuesta realizada por para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 10-11 de noviembre del 2005. Muestra: 1618 personas en las principales ciudades del Peru Download file

Written by Michael Ha

November 15th, 2005 at 10:51 am

Posted in Polls - Results

Fujimori was planning to land in Lima instead of Santiago on November 6th

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Peruvian authorities have reported Alberto Fujimori’s flight route had as final destination Lima, Peru. The route was changed at the last minute to Santiago, Chile.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 14th, 2005 at 4:42 pm

Posted in Fujimori

Chileans in favor of Fujimori’s extradition

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Según una encuesta publicada ayer por el diario La Tercera de Chile, el 76% de los entrevistados considera que el ex presidente Alberto Fujimori debe ser extraditado al Perú, mientras que el 17% opina que debe ser devuelto a Japón.
El estudio mostró también que el 80% de los entrevistados está de acuerdo con la frase “Fujimori es un problema de los peruanos, no de Chile”; el 77% piensa que Fujimori aprovechó las tensiones entre el Perú y Chile para aterrizar en Santiago, y un 63% considera que su presencia en Chile complica aun más las relaciones entre ambos países.
En el sondeo realizado entre el 10 y 11 de noviembre, 6 de cada 10 personas consultadas por el Centro de Encuestas de La Tercera dijeron que en Chile Alberto Fujimori será sometido a un juicio justo.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 14th, 2005 at 11:31 am

Posted in Fujimori

Open Letter to President Lagos

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Sr. Ricardo Lagos,
Presidente de la República de Chile.
Distinguido Señor Presidente,
Los abajo firmantes, estudiosos de la problemática peruana y latinoamericana, hemos recibido la noticia del arribo del ex presidente peruano Alberto Fujimori a suelo chileno con sorpresa y consternación. El señor Alberto Fujimori es un prófugo de la justicia peruana con orden internacional de captura. Las acusaciones en su contra son numerosas, y van desde el uso indebido de fondos estatales hasta homicidio. El ex presidente Fujimori, como cualquier otro ciudadano de cualquier país civilizado, tiene derecho a la presunción de inocencia. Pero, asimismo, tiene la obligación de enfrentar la justicia peruana para responder sobre los graves cargos en su contra.
Notamos con satisfacción la rápida acción de la justicia chilena al detener al ex presidente Fujimori. Esperamos fervientemente que la justicia chilena siga mostrando su compromiso con los tratados internacionales y bilaterales, y acceda al pedido de extradición del gobierno peruano para que el ex presidente Fujimori enfrente la justicia de este país.
Atentamente,

Firmas…..
To add your signature to this letter contact Julio Carrion providing your e-mail address and institutional affiliation (for identification purposes, only).

Written by Michael Ha

November 14th, 2005 at 9:11 am

Posted in Fujimori

APOYO November 2005: Fujimori in the polls (results for Lima)

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fujimori in the polls.jpg
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 10-11 de noviembre del 2005. Muestra: 1618 personas en las principales ciudades del Peru.
Source: El Comercio, 13 de noviembre del 2005

Enfoque: Fujimori no conmueve al electora
do
Alfredo Torres, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado
El Comercio, 13 de noviembre del 2005

El sorpresivo viaje de Alberto Fujimori a Chile tenía como evidente propósito recuperar protagonismo en el escenario político nacional, a cinco meses de las elecciones generales. Si bien su impacto mediático ha sido notable, su efecto en la opinión pública ha sido bastante menor.
Apoyo ha venido midiendo el respaldo a Fujimori de tres maneras: simpatías, potencial electoral e intención de voto para el Congreso. En los tres indicadores los resultados de noviembre no muestran variaciones significativas respecto de mediciones anteriores. Actualmente el 18% de la población señala que Fujimori es el político con el que más simpatiza, cifra similar a la obtenida en octubre (17%). En cuanto a su potencial electoral, el 14% declara que definitivamente votaría por él si pudiese ser candidato y el 60% que definitivamente no lo haría, porcentajes similares a los obtenidos en agosto (15% y 58%, respectivamente). El respaldo al fujimorismo para el Congreso ha disminuido de 15% a 12%.
En cuanto a su imagen de culpabilidad: dos de cada tres peruanos lo considera culpable tanto de enriquecimiento ilícito como de violación de derechos humanos. Naturalmente, esa misma proporción está de acuerdo con su detención. La mala imagen de la justicia peruana, se aprecia cuando se pregunta sobre el futuro. Solo dos de cada cinco entrevistados piensan que se logrará la extradición y solo uno de cada cuatro piensa que Fujimori tendría un juicio imparcial en Lima. La opinión pública también es bastante crítica con el Ejecutivo. La gran mayoría considera ineficiente la gestión del Gobierno y los procuradores y la aprobación presidencial no se ha incrementado, a pesar del esfuerzo por capitalizar la rápida detención del ex mandatario en Chile. El Gobierno se encuentra en este campo frente a una situación paradójica: si hace mucho énfasis político en lograr la extradición, esa misma actitud podría agudizar la percepción en Chile de que el ex presidente no tendría un juicio imparcial en el Perú, lo cual podría hacer abortar el proceso de extradición en marcha.

Written by Michael Ha

November 13th, 2005 at 8:43 am

Apoyo: November 10-11, 2005 poll

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apoyoencuesta10-11nov.jpg
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 10-11 de noviembre del 2005. Muestra: 1618 personas en las principales ciudades del Peru.
Source: El Comercio, 13 de noviembre del 2005

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Written by Michael Ha

November 13th, 2005 at 8:30 am

Posted in Polls - Results

The Trouble with Alberto

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By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 12, 2005

A perusal of the charges against former president Alberto Fujimori reveals an assortment of pecadillos ranging from vile abuses of power to mundane acts of private enrichment. How do you build a legal case when the specific crimes are hard to prove although the broader pattern of the abuse of power is indisputable?
All constitutions really do is tell us how laws are to be made; once a legal system is in place the laws can be enforced with penalties. But there is nothing in a constitution that spells out the consequences of violating the constitution (such provisions would be absurd, since constitutions precede laws and hence penalties). The worst offenses committed by the governments over which Fujimori presided were actions that were reprehensible not so much because they were illegal (though they involved systematically breaking the law) but because they were unconstitutional. They included:
– The autogolpe of 1992
– The 1995 Amnesty Law
– Ramming through congress the “law of authentic interpretation”
– Disbanding of the Constitutional Tribunal in 1997 when it struck down the law of authentic interpretation
– Running for an unconstitutional third term in 2000
– And, of course, putting Montesinos on the payroll for a job that was never formally defined but which amounted to turning control over much of the machinery of government to the intelligence service and giving free rein to the Colina group.
These are serious violations of the constitution, and they involved systematic law-breaking, but the Chilean judges are presumably going to want to see evidence of specific criminal wrong-doing that links particular crimes directly to Fujimori. After years of investigation there is precious little by way of material evidence linking Fujimori directly to such heinous crimes as the massacres at Barrios Altos or La Cantuta.
There is testimonial evidence that Fujimori was directly involved in these events, and there is written evidence that he rewarded the principals, but what is surely more serious is the fact that he was responsible, along with Montesinos, for creating a political system in which such actions could occur with impunity.
Fujimori and Montesinos created a system of government based on impunity, in which key offices in all major government agencies were captured and subordinated to the will of the executive. Montesinos was directly involved in torture, extortion, bribery and corruption of public officials. His criminality is beyond question.
Fujimori should be thought of not as a common criminal–though crimincal charges against him may ultimately be sustained–but more importantly he was the intellectual architect of a criminal regime. What is required here is political not legal judgment. And that is why it is vital to remember that what bars Fujimori from running in the 2006 election is a political judgment not a legal one.
Such is the sorry state of affairs of the Peruvian judiciary that there is not one single sentence against Fujimori, only charges. Having fled the country, Fujimori could not be tried. Apparently—though I have trouble accepting this, and would happily be corrected if anyone else knows better—he could not be sentenced in absentia in Peru.
Whatever the case may be, the fact that there are some 20-plus charges against him does not stop him from being a candidate (except that it might mean campaigning from behind bars). The impediment to his candidacy is a congressional vote that designates him ineligible for public office for 10 years. The power to designate an individual ineligible for office is a faculty that resides in the congress according to Peru’s constitution.
This faculty is political not juridical. Congress does not need a judicial sentence to ban someone from holding public office. That does not mean it can do so arbitrarily. Like any such political judgment, it had better be supported with solid reasons capable of winning the support of the vast majority of the voters, or else it will appear to be nothing better than political persecution. This, of course, is exactly what Fujimori and his supporters are arguing.
And that is why it is incumbent upon the political parties that have a commitment to democracy to insist that Fujimori cannot run for no other reason than to protect Peruvian democracy.
Fujimori has never run in an election that was not tarnished by some sort of doubt about his legitimacy as a candidate. He has, once again, positioned himself in the middle of a storm of controversy in which the central issue is, as usual, his eligibility for office.
Happily, some candidates, like Jaime Salinas, have followed Juan Sheput’s advice to pledged themselves to present a united front against Fujimori and, if necessary, abstain from any election in which the former leader might be a candidate. The public, particularly Fujimori’s supporters, need to hear a reasoned and unified defence of the political decision to bar Fujimori from office. Candidates should not try to stand behind the feeble shield of the judiciary. It is not enough to say that Fujimori is facing legal charges; the deeper question is political. Can Fujimori coexist with Peru’s fragile democracy? His decenio suggests the answer is “No.”
A number of related articles on this topic follow.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 12th, 2005 at 7:10 am

Peruvian Constitution – Articule 100: Who cannot run in 2006

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Source: La Republica, November 11, 2005

Constitucion de la Republica del Peru
Artículo 100°. Corresponde al Congreso, sin participación de la Comisión Permanente, suspender o no al funcionario acusado o inhabilitarlo para el ejercicio de la función pública hasta por diez años, o destituirlo de su función sin perjuicio de cualquiera otra responsabilidad.
El acusado tiene derecho, en este trámite, a la defensa por sí mismo y con asistencia de abogado ante la Comisión Permanente y ante el Pleno del Congreso.
En caso de resolución acusatoria de contenido penal, el Fiscal de la Nación formula denuncia ante la Corte Suprema en el plazo de cinco días. El Vocal Supremo Penal abre la instrucción correspondiente.
La sentencia absolutoria de la Corte Suprema devuelve al acusado sus derechos políticos.
Los términos de la denuncia fiscal y del auto apertorio de instrucción no pueden exceder ni reducir los términos de la acusación del Congreso.

Written by Michael Ha

November 11th, 2005 at 6:04 pm

Fujimori’s extradition: the logistics involved

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Source: El Comercio: Fujimori detenido en Chile, 11 de noviembre del 2005

Written by Michael Ha

November 11th, 2005 at 12:37 pm

Posted in Fujimori

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan Press Conference

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Written by Michael Ha

November 11th, 2005 at 11:46 am

Posted in Fujimori

No exigirán constancia de sufragio ni dispensa en el DNI después de comicios del 2006

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Un nuevo cambio en las reglas de juego electoral aprobó el día de ayer el pleno del Congreso: “La constancia de sufragio o la dispensa en el DNI no será exigible para participar en los asuntos públicos previstos en el artículo 30 de la Constitución ni para la realización de los actos civiles, comerciales, administrativos o judiciales o en cualquier acto jurídico”.
En lugar de dar preferencia a los avances tecnológicos como el alcance del voto electrónico a la mayor cantidad de peruanos, se dio vía libre a los miembros de mesa omisos al suprimir el día de ayer todas las restricciones civiles, comerciales, administrativas y judiciales de todos los electores que no se presenten a las elecciones generales del 2006, incluyendo además a los miembros de mesa que no cumplan con su deber cívico.
Magdalena Chú, Jefa de la ONPE lanzó una alerta de ausentismo en instalación de mesas de sufragio con esta nueva ley, que muchos de las ciudadanas y ciudadanos que resulten elegidos como miembros de mesa opten por no asistir a cumplir con este deber cívico y se dificulte la instalación de mesas de votación.
Por otro lado, no prosperó la exoneración de las multas electorales ni se dio visto bueno a la pretensión aprista para dispensar el pago de la multa a los que no votaron en el referéndum regional del 30 de octubre pasado.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 11th, 2005 at 7:11 am

Posted in Electoral System

Fujimori’s Chilean defense attorney resigns

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El abogado chileno Juan Carlos Osorio renunció hoy a la defensa del ex presidente Alberto Fujimori, debido a relaciones personales y profesionales con Eduardo Callmel del Solar, dueño del diario “Expreso”, y Daniel Borobio, ex asesor de imagen de Fujimori, ambos con peticiones de extradición desde Lima y denegadas por la justicia chilena, quienes no desean que sus situaciones puedan verse vinculadas con la que afecta al prófugo ex presidente, pero colaborará con el abogado peruano César Nakasaki, quien se encuentra en Chile para defender también a Fujimori.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 4:49 pm

Posted in Fujimori

Peruvian ambassador in Japan called back to Lima

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La Cancillería informó esta tarde que el gobierno peruano ordenó el traslado a Lima de su embajador en Japón, Luis Macchiavello, con el respectivo cese de sus funciones al frente de la representación diplomática tras la injerencia del gobierno Japonés en el caso de Alberto Fujimori, quien se haya detenido en Santiago de Chile.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 4:37 pm

Posted in Fujimori

JNE: Fujimori can’t run in 2006

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El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) envió un comunicado destacando el hecho de que los funcionarios públicos inhabilitados por el Congreso no pueden postular a la Presidencia de la República. Este documento considera que los candidatos a las elecciones del 2006 deben de tener en cuenta “los requisitos e impedimentos” en la Constitución Política del Perú y en la Ley Orgánica de Elecciones (No 26859), para postular a los cargos de elección.
Aunque este comunicado tiene una alusión directa a Fujimori, recordando su impedimento de postular, el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) solo se pronunciará sobre su caso cuando el ex presidente presente su candidatura para las elecciones generales del 2006.
Es importante el tener muy en cuenta disposiciones como el inciso “d” del artículo 10 de la Ley No 26859, que dice: “No son elegibles los funcionarios públicos inhabilitados, de conformidad con el artículo 100 de la Constitución”; porque Fujimori cuenta con esta inhabilitación política y por lo tanto, el Congreso está facultado para sancionarlo sin una sentencia judicial.

Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 11:28 am

Would Fujimori get a fair treatement in a Peruvian court?

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…not according to this editorial from El Mercurio (November 9, 2005). This piece raised brows among some Peruvians.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 10:30 am

Posted in Fujimori

Chile & Peru: Extradition Treaty

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Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 8:34 am

Posted in Fujimori

President Lagos: Chilean Government officials will be punished

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President Lagos: Chilean officials will be punished for negligence for letting Alberto Fujimori in Chile. Fujimori’s case is in the hands of a justice of the Supreme Court.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 7:15 am

Posted in Fujimori

Ministry of Foreign Relations of Japan: more on Fujimori

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Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 7:04 am

Posted in Fujimori

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Rousseau, Stephanie. 2005. “Peru”, in Sharing Power. Women, Parliament, Democracy, edited by Yvonne Galligan and Manon Tremblay. Aldershot: Ashgate, pp.91-105. Download file

Written by Michael Ha

November 10th, 2005 at 6:56 am

Posted in R,Women and Politics

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