Archive for February, 2006
APOYO National Poll, February 22-24, 2006
Poll made by Apoyo Opinion y Mercado for Cuarto Poder and Opinion Data, February 20-24, 2006. Universe: 2,000 personas across the country. Download file
Encuesta Apoyo: Indecisos llegan al 26%
Source: La República, 28 de febrero del 2006
De acuerdo con los resultados al 100% de la última encuesta de Apoyo, el porcentaje de indecisos ha aumentado en 15% los últimos 45 días. Es sumamente preocupante el hecho de que el número de los que no saben o no precisan, y los que piensan votar en blanco o viciado sea mayor a la intención de voto por Lourdes Flores, quien encabeza las encuestas con 24.42%. El diario La República conversó con el analista Alberto Adrianzén y el historiador Antonio Zapata, quienes coinciden en que este nicho de electores es el que definirá el resultado de las elecciones.
Informe de Transparencia: Total desinformación electoral de los medios
Source: La República, 28 de febrero del 2006
Según el último informe elaborado por la institución Transparencia, solo el 8.16 % de las informaciones que se han publicado en el primer mes de campaña en los diversos medios de comunicación se han referido a los planteamientos de los partidos políticos en carrera electoral. Se evaluaron 54 diarios (13 de Lima y 41 de 19 ciudades), y se llegó a la conclusión de que la mayor parte de los medios escritos se ocupa más de las declaraciones y denuncias en medio de la campaña (sobretodo de los escándalos), que de los planes de gobierno.
Alan García y su repunte en las últimas encuestas
Source: La República, 28 de febrero del 2006. Foto: Oscar Farje.
Alan García, candidato presidencial por el APRA, habló sobre su repunte en las últimas encuestas (de las que antes criticaba), su campaña agresiva en los próximos 40 días para convencer a la población de que es la opción, pero sobretodo, para captar el voto juvenil y de las madres de familia a ritmo de reggaetón y vasos de cerveza.
Antauro Humala says: Ollanta is “Capitán Carlos”
El reportero Ítalo Sifuentes Alemán del diario El Comercio, conversó en el penal de Piedras Gordas con Antauro Humala, quien reconoció que su hermano Ollanta es el discutido “Capitán Carlos” que operó en Madre Mía. Mediante un manuscrito, afirmó que en la lucha antiterrorista el ahora candidato a la presidencia actuó de Unión por el Perú (UPP), “de acuerdo con las reglas del Ejército” durante el gobierno de Alberto Fujimori bajo la asesoría de Vladimiro Montesinos.
Unidad Nacional no modificará su estrategia de campaña y propaganda
Source: Perú 21, 28 de febrero del 2006. Foto: Martín Pauca.
La respuesta a la campaña “reggaetonera” del APRA. Tras experimentar un ligero bajón en la última encuesta de Apoyo, el día de ayer se presentaron los dos primeros (de una serie de 5) spots televisivos de Unidad Nacional, cada uno destinado a un tema específico: La emigración de jóvenes sin trabajo, problemática de la salud, seguridad ciudadana, generación de empleo y educación. Representantes de la alianza política indicaron que no se piensa incluir algún ritmo de moda para contrarrestar el spot del Apra.
Se incrementa la crisis en Alianza por el Futuro
Cada día aumentan más los rumores del estallido de una grave crisis al interior de Alianza por el Futuro. Tras el poco apoyo de la población a través de las encuestas, la candidatura de Martha Chávez ha dividido a los seguidores de Fujimori. Augusto Alvárez Rodrich, Director de Perú 21, comentó en su editorial del domingo 26 de febrero sobre las duras perspectivas electorales del fujimorismo.
An Analysis of Ollanta Humala’s Electoral Platform
The blog Peru Politico has analyzed the the government plan of the Nationalist Party of Peru, the Great Transformation.
Lloyd Axworthy in Second Visit to Peru – Updated
Lloyd Axworthy returned to Peru for the second time since he was appointed to head up the OAS mission to observe the presidential and congressional elections in April. Between Thursday and Saturday, Axworthy held meetings with leaders of major political parties and groups in civil society. The best newpaper report on Axworthy’s visit was printed in La Republica. According to La Republica, Axworthy heard many reports from candidates and individuals in civil society that there is favoritism on behalf of Lourdes Flores Nano, candidate for National Unity. One of the people Axworthy met was Ollanta Humala. Ollanta Humala has said it is strange how the media gives more coverage to other candidates and said nothing about “gigantic” meetings he held in the north and western regions last week. Humala may be right–according to Transparencia, Humala is getting a smaller share of the publicity than one might expect given his standing in the polls.
It is significant that Axworthy met with Cesar Hildebrandt before leaving Lima. Hildebrandt said that Peruvian television had concentrated its attention on questioning Humala without giving him a chance to outline his program for government. He noted that he was forced out of his program on television after airing an interview with Humala. In his next visit, Axworthy may want to meet with the media to express the concerns of some of the candidates.
In what follows, we provide the two main newspaper articles that covered Axworthy’s visit to Lima, and then a number of stories from the following day (January 27) in which people react. Augusto Alvarez Rodrich suggests that the candidates who are complaining that the media is responsible for their standing in the polls should examine the lack of effectiveness of their own campaigns. Ángel Páez, on the other hand, says woe to any TV station, newspaper, magazine or radio that offers negative coverage of Loudes Flores. In effect, powerful economic interests want her to win and money talks when it comes to shaping media coverage.
Interview with Alan Garcia
Apoyo Opinión y Mercado National Urban Poll February 22-24: Humala 26%, García 22%
Source: La Primera, 27 de febrero del 2006
Según el último sondeo a nivel nacional efectuado por la empresa Apoyo difundido el día de ayer por el programa Cuarto Poder de América Televisión, Lourdes Flores Nano, candidata presidencial de Unidad Nacional, se mantiene firme en las preferencias electorales con 33%, aunque con una baja de 2 puntos en relación al anterior estudio, Ollanta Humala se mantiene en el segundo lugar, con una tendencia al estancamiento, con 26%, seguido muy de cerca por un Alan García en un aumento sostenido con 22%, y Valentín Paniagua sigue descendiendo con 7%. Estos porcentajes corrresponden al número de votos válidamente emitidos a 41 días de las elecciones generales.
En relación a una eventual segunda vuelta entre Lourdes Flores y Ollanta Humala, ganaría la primera con 60% contra un 40% del candidato de UPP. En el caso de un enfrentamiento entre Flores y García, la primera llegaría a la presidencia con un 62%, mientras el ex mandatario quedaría con un 38%. En una segunda vuelta entre Ollanta Humala y Alan García, ambos empatarían con 50%.
En cuanto a la composición del próximo Congreso de la República, el Apra tendría mayoría en el Congreso con 26%, seguido de Unidad Nacional a 4 puntos con 22%, tercero Unión por el Perú (UPP) con 15% y el Frente de Centro cuarto con 9%.
Consulta realizada en un universo de dos mil electores hábiles entre el 22 y 24 de febrero en 178 distritos de 113 localidades de 79 provincias de todos los departamentos del país. Margen de error: un máximo de +-2.2%. Nivel de confianza: 95%.
Candidatos y CONFIEP critican plan de gobierno de Ollanta Humala
Comenzaron las críticas de los contrincantes electorales de Ollanta Humala. El candidato presidencial de Frente de Centro, Valentín Paniagua, manifestó que es difícil que la población acepte su plan de gobierno por la inclusión de propuestas “del rezago velasquista” que arruinaron al país; mientras que Alan García, candidato del APRA, sostuvo que las ideas de nacionalizar las actividades económicas estratégicas y volver a la figura del Estado como empresario pertenecen al pasado. Por otro lado, el candidato del Movimiento Nueva Izquierda, acusó a Humala de copiar las tesis de la izquierda.
Peruana de Opinión Pública National Poll: Ollanta Humala down 3%
El segundo sondeo nacional de Peruana de Opinión Pública (POP), difundido el día de ayer por el programa Panorama de Panamericana Televisión, reveló un bajón del 3% de Ollanta Humala en las preferencias electorales, mientras que el líder del APRA, Alan García, subió dos, llegando a un 16%. En el primer lugar se mantiene Lourdes Flores con 30%.
Transparencia presentó cronograma de exposiciones y debates electorales 2006
Percy Medina, secretario general de Transparencia, manifestó que desde la noche del día de hoy lunes 27 de febrero hasta el viernes 03 de marzo, los 20 candidatos a la presidencia expondrán en Televisión Nacional del Perú (TNP), sus principales propuestas de gobierno, con miras de que el electorado conozca sus medidas a aplicar en caso de llegar al poder. Este espacio televisivo, denominado “Elige tú, elige bien”, se emitirá desde las nueve hasta las once de la noche.
Interviews with Gonzalo García
Two interesting interviews with Ollanta Humala’s First Vicepresident, Gonzalo García, on Unión por el Perú´s electoral platform.
Headaches for Election Authorities
The National Election Board (JNE) has approved the use of a single ballot for elections for the president, congress, and Andean Parliament on April 9. The Board rejected arguments by the FIM and Peru Posible in favor of splitting the ballots into two separate lists. Neither the FIM nor Peru Posible are running presidential candidates. The other parties have presidential candidates, and they want to be sure that once the voter has chosen the president it will be as obvious as possible who to support for congress on the same ticket.
The National Organization of Electoral Processes (ONPE) had originally proposed a double ballot in which the president was on one paper and then there was another paper which listed all the candidates to the congress and the Andean Parliament. The double ballot proposal would have marked a departure from past practice. It was not sustained with clear arguments, and the proposal was not properly vetted by the political parties. The parties, fearing that the separation of presidential and congressional ballots could lead voters to split tickets, challenged the decision. The National Election Board upheld the challenge and told the ONPE to go back to the drawing board. The ONPE has done so, and the single ballot (one piece of paper with three lists on it) is the result.
The whole issue would pass as a minor glitch were it not for the fact that president Toledo waited until very late–early December–to call the election. As a result, the time table is very tight. The ONPE has to have all the ballots printed and ready for distribution a month prior to the election. In addition to the ballots, all the instructional material for the polling stations has to be prepared, and all the election day workers have to be trained. What is more, the decision on the ballot does not leave the ONPE free and clear yet–there are still all the challenges against various congressional candidates to be resolved, which should take until some time next week.
Ollanta Humala Plans Constituent Assembly with Power to Close Congress
Ollanta Humala, if elected, will convene a Constituent Assembly with the power to close the congress elected on April 9. This proposal, as noted by Juan Carlos Tafur, bears a striking resemblance to the strategy used by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. It could undermine the separation of branches of government, and lay the basis for a regime with greater executive powers.
Transparencia and IDEA Forum on Military and Police Voters in Peru
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 26, 2006
Under the auspices of IDEA and Transparencia, a working breakfast on “Military and Police Voters in Peru” was held on Thursday, February 23, 2006. What follows is a brief summary some of the key issues and conclusions to emerge from the discussion. Participants holding public office (see list below) spoke on a not-for-attribution basis.
Photo: J. Bazo
The armed forces and police will vote for the first time in modern Peruvian history in the elections for president, congress, and Andean parliament on April 9, 2006. It is estimated that there are 150,000 potential voters in uniform (roughly 62,000 members of the armed forces, and 87,000 members of the police), but only 84,000 are enumerated on the list of eligible voters.
Of the total potential voters in the armed forces and police, as many as 46,000 may be unable to vote due to assignments on election day. There will be over 4,200 voting stations throughout Peru, and about 10 police or soldiers will be assigned to each station. Military and police personnel may be under orders of restricted mobility, which mean they are obliged to remain at their post (for example, guarding a school where people are voting) during the day. They may not have time during their breaks to make their way to their own polling station before balloting closes.
Enrique Bernales. Photo: J. Bazo
Enrique Bernales emphasized the seriousness of the problem, saying that some members of the military and police have been “given the right to vote but are not permitted to use it.” The issue is especially sensitive since one candidate, Ollanta Humala, is a retired military officer who claims to have support within the armed forces.
Fernando Tuesta. Photo: J. Bazo
Fernando Tuesta said that the extension of the vote to members of the armed forces needs to be accompanied by a scaling back of military involvement in the organization of elections. A smaller number of police and soldiers could protect the perimeter around each polling station rather than being posted in each room where balloting takes place.
A more efficient allocation of military personnel will not solve the problem of members of the armed forces stationed in areas far from home who have not renewed their national identity cards (DNI). Since the election list was closed in December 2005, there is no way for such individuals to vote in this election. However, as Rafael Roncagliolo noted, it is important to identify problems that can be addressed in the post-electoral period. There will be elections in November 2006 for regional and municipal governments, and the list of voters will not be closed until July.
Rafael Roncagliolo. Photo: J. Bazo
Percy Medina suggested that measures could be taken to make is easier and quicker to get a new identity card. Participants recognized that measures to expedite the renewal of identity cards would benefit both civilian and military voters. In addition to the armed forces and police, other potential voters face impediment to the exercise of the suffrage. Prison inmates who have not been sentenced are legally entitled to vote yet there are no polling stations in prisons. Like the military, medical staff and journalists work on election day.
Percy Medina. Photo: J. Bazo
The total number of voters in the military and police is not large in quantitative terms. They amount to one half of one percent of the total electorate of 16.5 million voters. The tighter the margins of electoral victory, however, the more potentially significant their votes could be. The problem is magnified by the possibility that candidates might use the issue seek to discredit the election result. There is, however, no valid public policy justification for assigning priority to the military vote over other impediments to voting such as the estimated 250,000 people in the highlands and jungle areas who do not have birth certificates.
Participants:
Alberto Adrianzén, Comunidad Andina de Naciones
Engelbert Barreto Huamán, Jurado Nacional de Elecciones
Jorge Bazo, “Peru Election 2006” Weblog
Moises Benamor, Organization of American States
Enrique Bernales, Comisión Andina de Juristas
Eric Bertram, Embajada de Canadá
Maxwell A. Cameron, University of British Columbia
Ana Maria Tamayo, Instituto de Defensa Legal
Luz Marina Vera, Organizacion Nacional de Procesos Electorales
Percy Medina, Transparencia
Luis Nunes, Instituto Nacional Democratica
Ronalth Ochaeta, Organization of American States
Rafael Roncagliolo, IDEA
Luis C. Seghelmeble Riera, RENIEC
Fernando Tuesta, La Universidad Católica
Analistas & Consultores National Poll Feb 16-18: Lourdes Flores clear lead, Humala & García disputing the second place
Source: Perú 21, 25 de febrero del 2006
Según el último sondeo elaborado por Analistas & Consultores financiado por Frecuencia Latina para el programa La ventana indiscreta, Alan García ha sufrido un incremento de casi dos puntos porcentuales, pasando de los 14.6% obtenidos en enero a 16.3% en febrero, acortando la distancia con Ollanta Humala, quien se mantiene estático en 19.4%. La candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores, se mantiene en el primer lugar, aunque ha experimentado un ligero descenso a 29.2% en relación a los 30.9%, que tenía el mes pasado.
Tamaño de la muestra: 600 entrevistas en Lima y 1400 en 25 provincias urbanas en el interior del país. Margen de confianza: 95%. Margen de error: +-2.2%. Nivel de representatividad: 64.4%. Financiamiento: Frecuencia Latina. Download file
Ollanta Humala presentó Plan de Gobierno 2006-2011: “La Gran Transformación”
En clarísima alusión al libro de Karl Polanyi, el candidato presidencial de Unión por el Perú, Ollanta Humala, presentó su plan de gobierno 2006-2011, bautizado como “La gran transformación”; un documento que propone entre diversos aspectos el convocar a una asamblea constituyente, un cambio radical de las estructuras económicas del país como la suspención la firma del tratado de libre comercio (TLC) con Estados Unidos hasta que lo examine el próximo Congreso, el acentuar la participación estatal en la economía, la eliminación de los “contrato-ley” para cobrar más impuestos y la implantación de la política de “corrupción cero”.
Este documento ha motivado diversas reacciones de las tiendas políticas, como la del líder y candidato al Congreso por el Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM) Fernando Olivera, quien la calificó como una “amenaza”; el candidato a la primera vicepresidencia por Unión por el Perú (UPP), Gonzalo García Nuñez, afirmó que es un “proyecto ambicioso” para que se aplique en un periodo de 20 años; mientras que Luis Vega, presidente de ADEX, consideró que sería un gran peligro para la economía nacional suspender la firma del TLC.
IMA Poll – Lima & Callao, February 20-21, 2006: Lourdes Flores Way Ahead
Lourdes Flores: 37.8%
Ollanta Humala: 18.3%
Alan García: 17.2%
Martha Chávez: 5.3 %
Valentín Paniagua: 3.4%
IMA Estudios de Marketing opinion poll: 700 individuals interviewed between February 20-21, 2006 in Lima and Callao. Margin of error 3.7%.
Gauss Data International National Poll, February 11-16: Technical Tie for first place between Flores and Humala
Source: La Primera, 24 de febrero del 2006
De acuerdo al sondeo realizado por la Encuestadora Universidad Alas Peruanas en convenio con la Encuestadora Gauss Data International entre el 11 y 16 de febrero a nivel nacional, sólo dos puntos separan a Ollanta Humala de Lourdes Flores Nano. La candidata de Unidad Nacional se mantiene arriba de las preferencias con un 23.3%, seguida muy de cerca por Humala con el 21.4%. La sorpresa se da en Lima metropolitana, donde Flores lidera con 27.7%, ubicandose Alan García segundo con 16.9%, para dejar en el tercer lugar a Humala con 15.8%.
Para la realización de esta encuesta se trabajó en base a 5,029 entrevistas en Lima Metropolitana, 23 departamentos, 48 provincias, 126 distritos y centros poblados rurales con un nivel de confianza del 95% y un margen de error de 2.7% y 4.5%.
Mapeo Interactivo de las Américas muestra qué medios llegan a qué votantes
En un esfuerzo para reducir la corrupción y promover el acceso equitativo a la información política durante los procesos electorales, el Centro Carter, junto a la Universidad de Calgary y la Fundación Canadiense para las Américas (Focal), han elaborado un mapa interactivo denominado Mapeo Interactivo de las Américas, que muestra dónde se encuentran los medios de comunicación en Latinoamérica, quiénes son sus propietarios, su capacidad de alcance y transmisión, y sobretodo, el perfil demográfico del electorado al que llegan. Gracias a esta herramienta los usuarios en el Perú, ya sean organizaciones políticas o el votante común, pueden saber cómo influyen los medios a nivel nacional.
Corte Suprema de Chile denegó la libertad bajo fianza a Fujimori
Tras revisar la apelación que había presentado el ex presidente Alberto Fujimori para lograr ser liberado de la Escuela de Gendarmería, donde se encuentra detenido desde hace tres meses, la Corte Suprema de Chile resolvió mantenerlo en prisión preventiva argumentando en su fallo que su excarcelación constituye “un peligro para la seguridad de la sociedad” en los términos a que se refiere el artículo 363 del Código de Procedimiento Penal del país sureño. Los familiares de Fujimori habían alquilado una casa con rejas eléctricas, cámaras y alarmas para convencer a los jueces que le otorgaran el arresto domiciliario.
Sendero Luminoso amenaza elecciones en la zona del Alto Huallaga
El presidente del Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE), Enrique Mendoza, no descartó la posibilidad de que el proceso electoral en la zona del Alto Huallaga pueda estar en riesgo por la presencia senderista, por lo que tomarán las precauciones en estos lugares calificados de riesgo para el personal de los organismos electorales y los electores.
Ollanta Humala Demands Apology from Cecilia Valenzuela
Photo: F. Bazo
Fabiola Bazo and Maxwell A. Cameron
February 23, 2006
Ollanta Humala, candidate for Union Por el Peru (UPP), and his wife Nadine Heredia participated in a meeting with the Asociación de Prensa Extranjera en el Perú (APEP) in the Hotel Los Delfines in Lima this morning. Humala made a short introduction describing his latest trip to the North of Peru and complaining about the lack of balanced coverage from the local media.
Humala admitted that his organization is very new, and as a result many people have been attracted to it because they see the other parties and alliances as closed to newcomers. He also claimed to be the victim of an intense campaign against him in which the media have played a key role.
Humala emphasized the need for national control over natural resources. He declined to state specifically what level of state participation there should be in the natural resource sector, saying it depends on the project, prices, and capacity of the public sector. “We don’t need to be at the wheel, but we do need to be on this boat” he said.
Regarding the Free Trade Agreement with the US, Humala said more information should be available concerning the agreement and any parallel accords that might be involved; there should be a public debate; and, if the society is divided on the issue, a referendum; above all, that the existing congress should not approve the treaty because it does not have the moral backing. His own assessment of the FTA is that it would be negative for certain productive sectors, especially in agriculture.
Humala was put in the spot a couple of times. He was asked about his position on gay marriage, abortion and the appointment of a gay person in his cabinet. With regard to gay marriage, Humala said he does not believe in gay marriage but would approve legal unions among homosexual couples along the lines of the policy in France. Humala was clear that he would appoint a gay person to his cabinet if this person was capable.
With regard to abortion. He stated it was women’s issue and a personal one. He was not against it or in favour, but called attention to the social causes of unwanted pregnancies. He is a strong believer of death penalty for those who abuse minors.
Humala was also asked about the charges against him concerning human rights abuses when he was a militar officer in Alto Huallaga in 1992. He said he is innocent of these charges. “I have not violated human rights,” he said. He did not deny that his accusors have had relatives disappeared, and implied that the accusations against him may be motivated by the desire to use the publicity to get answers. He pointed out that the military keeps records, whereas the Shining Path did not, making it harder to know what happened to Shining Path people who were killed and also hard to know who was with the Shining Path and who was not.
Humala said he had not killed or tortured anyone outside of combat, that he had not committed to crimes of which he has been accused. (“Yo no he matado ni torturado a nadie que no sea en combate…No he cometido los delitos que me imputan”). He operated in a zone that was in strategic equilibrium with the Shining Path–that is, the Shining Path had the same arms and personnel as the army in that area. He also claimed the final report of the Truth Commission did not identify him as a human rights abuser. He also said that if he is elected in April 9th, he would let the judicial processes against him continue because “no one is above the law.”
Ollanta Humala vs. Cecilia Valenzuela. A tense moment during the meeting occurred during an exchange between Humala and journalist Cecilia Valenzuela. Humala refused to answer any of her questions until she apologized to his wife Nadine for a humorous report in dubious taste aired in La Ventana Indiscreta last night. Valenzuela apologized for any offense taken. Humala asked his wife if she was satisfied with the apology. Heredia demanded a public apology in La Ventana Indiscreta, which Valenzuela accepted. After this exchange, Humala answered Valenzuela’s question which concerned whether he would meet with Teresa Avila to respond to her allegations. Humala answered that would politicized the process. He would be willing to testify before a judge or be jailed, but he would not be part of a “publicitary show.”
Humala acknowledged that he was trained in the School of the Americas. This is a point that was mentioned by Sofia Macher in an interview in La Ventana Indiscreta with Cecilia Valenzuela in the context of a discussion of the charges against Humala. Humala argued that the fact that this fact should not be taken out of context. His entire graduating class went through the program, which lasted only 6 weeks.
There is a definite evolution in Humala’s response to the human rights issue. Whether this is a coherent strategy or a process of muddling through is unclear. His initial posture seemed evasive to many analysts. He claimed to be innocent and refused to enter into details. Now he is saying he has not killed anyone outside of combat, but he acknowledges there were disappearances which may or may not have occurred in combat. He claims that he too suffered loss in the war, including a cousin. In his view, the family of victims may be using his candidacy as blackmail to get answers. He still refuses, however, to provide details about his actions in Madre Mia and now uses the legal charges against him as a pretext. At some point in the campaign, however, he will almost certainly have to provide an account of his actions.
The session ended with a question about what Humala will do in the likely event that he is not elected. Humala insisted that he expects to do well and senses that he is in good shape in terms of popular support. He would not speculate about losing. Humala’s answers show he is thinking in terms of how his replies will look when printed in the papers said one journalist at the event.
APRA’s Day of Fraternity
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 23, 2006
Photo: M.A. Cameron
February 22 was the 111th anniversary of the birth of Víctor Raúl Haya de la Torre, the founder of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA). Members of the APRA party, or Apristas, refer to this as the Day of Fraternity, and in Lima they typically celebrate with a mass in the San Francisco Church in the historic center of Lima. Following the mass, the faithful gathered in the Óvalo de Breña to reaffirm their commitment to the party and to listen to Alan García Pérez rally support for the election campaign.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Mercedes Cabanillas was the first speaker to warm up the crowd. She launched an impassioned attack on Lourdes Flores, the leader of National Unity, who she characterized as the candidate of the rich. “We don’t want a Trojan horse with a woman’s skirt hiding entrepreneurs within its womb,” she said. Mauricio Mulder followed with a denunciation of the judiciary for releasing a member of President Alejandro Toledo’s family on a suspended sentence for rape. Such lenient and politically-motivated judges, he warned, “would be called to account before congress.” He emphasized that APRA is an organized party, and its internal order is a guarantee of security.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Alan García’s vice presidential candidate, Luis Giampietri received a lukewarm reception and his brief statement received sustained applause only when he mentioned Haya de la Torre. It was as if the crowd was pleased to hear the newcomer stress his attachment to the historic leader. Giampietri’s claim that he joined García’s slate because he was concerned about threats to the rights of the military personnel, however, had little resonance. APRA has a long history of persecution by the military and the rights of the military would not seem to be a major concern of the rank and file.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
The warmest reception went to Jorge del Castillo, who joked that a recent poll showing a technical tie between García and Ollanta Humala was old news: “we passed that guy a while ago” he said, “we are in the second round for sure.” He also noted that APRA has beat out Lourdes Flores before.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Del Castillo said that APRA has parliamentary unity and discipline. The party enters congress on July 28 and leaves on July 28 five year later with the same number of members. This distinguishes APRA from other, more loosely organized parties, most of which tend to disintegrate when they get into congress. By contrast, APRA has no turncoats or traitors.
Del Castillo belittled efforts at renovation in other parties, saying inexperienced newcomers are no guarantee of quality. Who wants a “brand new rapist” or “brand new ‘for God and money’”? The latter is an allusion to a member of congress who, in a memorable Freudian slip, accidentally swore to “God and money” rather than “God and the homeland” when he took the oath of office. His subsequent parliamentary career has been marked by scandal and allegations of nepotism. Del Castillo then led the audience in a collective renewal of their vows as members of APRA.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Following Del Castillo, García took the podium and gave one of the impassioned and dramatic speeches for which he is justly famous. He summarized highlights of the life of Haya de la Torre, emphasizing that APRA is not just an electoral machine. It is an organization that looks to the distant future (the next 40 years, not the next 40 days). The APRA is part of the history of the Peruvian people, he said, so that where the Peruvian people exist, there is the APRA. There was an almost spiritual quality to his invocation of the name of Haya de la Torre, who he said would descend to the people who live APRA’s doctrine with true conviction.
A central theme of García’s speech was that you cannot destroy APRA. It would be fair to say that APRA is the only party running in this election as a party. García said that APRA has existed for 75 years in spite of persecution by Manuel Odría in the 1950s, the military government in the 1970s, and Alberto Fujimori in the 1990s. “APRA never dies,” chanted the crowd. Moreover, García suggested that APRA is the most organized party in Peru, and thus the party best able to carry out radical change. In an allusion to the candidacy of Ollanta Humala, García said that the Peruvian people like to flirt with other candidates but in the end alway return to their true love, the APRA.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Another theme was experience. García confessed to mistakes, but “always in favor of the people.” Moreover, he stressed, “from errors one learns how to better serve.” Errors, in short, are part of experience, and APRA has the experience to “fulfill its commitment to serve 100 percent.” “Alan Sí Puede” chanted the crowd in response.
García’s speech operated at a number of levels, and synthesized diverse themes. At one point he referred to APRA as a “movimiento cobrizo popular” (“popular, copper-tone movement.” The term “cobriza” is an ethnic reference used by Humala). At another point he said “vamos a trabajar y ayudar a trabajar” (“we will work and help others to work.” The phrase “work and let work” comes from Fernando Belaúnde Terry’s Popular Action party).
Part of García’s strategy is to highlight his difference with Lourdes Flores Nano, whose campaign has emphasized character and building trust, but has not involved making specific commitments. García has made many small, unspectacular, but very concrete commitments. On this occasion, for example, he offered to promote internal tourism by allowing firms to write off expenses for travel by their employees within Peru. Currently, such expenses can be written off only if the travel is abroad. He also promised to establish the dates for long weekends in advance so that people have the chance to make travel plans around long weekends. Currently, long weekends are often announced just days in advance.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
García made it clear that there is a lot at stake in this election for his generation of leaders. This is almost certainly his last chance. The election will also be a test of the strength of the only well-organized, well-financed, and disciplined political party in Peru.
The Fujimori Legacy
The Fujimori Legacy: The Rise of Electoral Authoritarianism in Peru. Edited by Julio F. Carrión, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware.
CPI Poll – Metropolitan Lima, February 16-20, 2006
Encuesta de opinión pública política Nivel Lima Metropolitana 16 al 20 de Febrero del 2006 Download file
Encuestas de Conecta y CPI muestran las preferencias del electorado para el Congreso
Source: Perú 21, 23 de febrero del 206
Tras los resultados de la última encuesta de Conecta Asociados que elaboró en exclusiva para Perú.21, de los 25 partidos políticos que presentaron su lista parlamentaria, solamente 7 superarían la valla electoral para obtener representatividad en el Congreso, siendo lo más resaltante el empate técnico entre el APRA y Unidad Nacional con un 16% aproximadamente; mientras que el sondeo de CPI reveló las tendencias en el voto preferencial en el que también estos partidos obtendrían en Lima los primeros lugares de las preferencias electorales.
El “reggaetón” del APRA
Source: La República, 23 de febrero del 2006
Con la presentación de su nuevo y original spot a ritmo del género musical más popular entre los jóvenes en la actualidad, el llamado “reggaetón” (una mezcla de reggae y Hip-Hop en versión latina), el Partido Aprista Peruano inició una agresiva campaña para conquistarlos. La campaña electoral no tiene límites.
Musica: Download file
Video de la estrella
Javier Diez Canseco: Candidates Avoiding Debate on FTA
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 22, 2006
In a meeting with the foreign press, Javier Diez Canseco, candidate of the Socialist Party, outlined his initiative to submit the recently negotiated Free Trade Agreement between Peru and the United States to a referendum. Diez Canseco is working with a network of civil society organizations, unions, and parliamentary leaders to prevent the FTA from being approved in the current legislature, which will reopen in March.
Denounciations against Ollanta Humala could Backfire against his Opponents
Santiago Pedraglio in Peru.21 argues the allegations regarding supposed efforts by the Chavez government to encourage Peruvians in Venezuela to vote for Humala could backfire those making the allegations.
CONECTA National Poll – February 15-17, 2006: Lourdes Flores Maintains Lead and Dispute for Second Place Continues
Conecta Asociados SAC, Informe Opinión Febrero 2006 for Peru.21. Survey covers 33 provinces in 16 departaments, including rural areas. 2,111 individuals interviewed between February 15-17, 2006. Margin of error +/-2.1. Download file
Source: Peru.21, February 22, 2006
Victor Andres Garcia Belaunde: Frente de Centro Could Appoint a Gay Minister
During an interview with Jaime Bayly (El Francotirador) on Sunday night, Lourdes Flores stated that she was not aware of a gay person who might be appointed to a cabinet post in a government she might form. In the interview, Flores went out of her way to express tolerance with respect to sexual orientation, but she also made it clear she does not regard homosexuality as natural. Victor Andres Garcia Belaunde, seeking to distinguish his party (Accion Popular/Frente de Centro) from Flores’ social conservatism, characterized her attitude as “homophobic.” He suggested Oscar Ugarteche could well be appointed to a cabinet position in a government of the Frente de Centro, perhaps as Finance Minister.
Candidates Disagree Over Latest Denunciation of Chavez’s Meddling
Agustin Haya of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) suggested that the ideological affinity between Lourdes Flores Nano’s Popular Christian Party (PPC) and her social Christian counterparts in Venezuela (COPEI) may have motivated the latter to denounce the supposed efforts by the Chavez government to encourage Peruvians in Venezuela to vote for Ollanta Humala. This Flores hotly denies, saying she has had no contact with the COPEI member who made the accusation. Humala, for his part, played down the possibility that the Chavez government is seeking to influence the Peruvian election by such means.
Lourdes Flores Puts Order among Congressional Candidates
Lourdes Flores is asking the members of her congressional list not to accompany her in large numbers on the campaign trail since some of them are getting in the way of establishing contact with the voters in this “hyper-personal” campaign, as she has called it.
The Military Vote
More than 47,000 (56%) members of the armed forces will not be able to vote on April 9th. The military vote represents 0.9% of the electorate.
Ollanta Humala’s Electoral and Legal Defense Strategy
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 19, 2006
Photo: M.A. Cameron
In an astute analysis, respected constitutionalist and former senator Enrique Bernales argues that it is becoming clear that Humala has an intelligent strategy with respect to accusations that he was known in 1992 as “Captain Carlos,” the chief of a military base in Madre Mia who allegedly committed human rights abuses. Faced with insistent demands by the press and other candidates, Humala has acknowledged that he went by the nom de guerre “Carlos,” but he denies that he was “Captain Carlos Gonzales.” Beyond these admissions, he insists that further information must come from the Ministry of Defense. This has put the minister, Marciano Rengifo, in the hot seat—and he is not taking the heat well.
Given that the allegations of human rights abuse were made in the third week of January, one might have assumed that by now we would have a response from the Ministry of Defense indicating whether Humala was, indeed, the Captain Carlos who ran the Madre Mia base. However, for weeks the Minister of Defense has refused to address the issue. In an interview in Caretas this week (February 16, 2006, pp. 14-17, we reproduced the interview on February 17), Rengifo, stonewalled, evaded, and obfuscated questions about Humala. In a tone that could only be described as insolent, the Minister said, in effect, there is nothing to investigate; only Humala can answer the question; the army does not use operative pseudonyms and there is no list of such names.
Democracy requires supremacy of elected civilian officials over the armed forces. A key principle of constitutional democracy is that the armed forces are non-deliberative and obedient. Peru’s inability to achieve civilian supremacy is reflected in the tradition of appointing military men to run the defense ministry. Rengifo is a retired army general, so not surprisingly his actions are being interpreted as evidence of esprit de corps. Given that there is less than two months of campaign time left, the information concerning Humala needs to be clarified in short order. Not only has Rengifo stonewalled on this matter of highest urgency, he has accused human rights NGOs—such as the Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos, which has threatened to denounce the Ministry of Defense for failing to provide information about Captain Carlos—of waging a “war on the Ministry of Defense”! Such language is surely inappropriate under any circumstance, all the more so when the NGOs are demanding information that is vital to the election. The question, however, is why the stonewalling? This is where Bernales’ article gets interesting.
Bernales suggests that Humala has figured out that he can close ranks with the military which does not want to expose itself to closer scrutiny of its actions in Alto Huallaga in 1992. Any revelations concerning Captain Carlos would require some acknowledgement of responsibility of the armed forces. To this day, the “party line” in the armed forces is that, as Renfigo put it in Caretas, “excesses occur in any war. But these excesses have to be taken individually.” In his view, the Truth Commission is wrong: “I reject it profoundly,” said Renfigo, “because it says there was a policy of systematic violation of human rights during the war against terrorism.” For someone who thinks the Truth Commission was wrong, that any violations of human rights occurred as a result of individual excesses, any investigation into the actions of an individual officer that might expose a policy of human rights abuses would be embarrassing.
By closing ranks with the military, Humala is passing the buck. He is saying that the generals designed the strategy, gave the orders, and placed pseudonyms on officers to hide their identities. By revealing Capitain Carlos’s identity, the chain of command would be exposed, pointing to superior officers who failed to mark the distinction between legitimate military operations and actions involving abuses of human rights. Humala, in other words, is counting on the esprit de corp of the military to prevail over democratic accountability.
What Bernales does not say, but which Fernando Rospigliosi notes in an editorial reprinted below, is that Humala’s strategy is not only part of an intelligent legal defense, but also part of an evolving electoral strategy. Rospigliosi is a distinguished analyst of the Peruvian armed forces who served as Minister of the Interior under Toledo. He is unfair when he says that in recent declarations Humala did not deny that he participated in human rights crimes. If we read the report to which Rospigliosi refers, Humala does nothing of the sort. Humala has has repeatedly insisted that he has committed no such crimes. It is true, however, as Rospigliosi says, that Humala has begun to insinuate that the individuals who have come forward to accuse him of violating human rights are or were associated with the Shining Path.
What Humala said was “It seems to me unfair that the truth is told only half way and that there is no investigation of how who were these people who were supposedly victims of violence. Who were they in these years of war with the Shining Path?” Does this work as an electoral strategy? According to Rospigliosi, Nadine Humala, Ollanta’s wife, recently criticized human rights NGOs for not caring about the poor and only defending the rich.
We also have to add another element, which is that Humala’s strategy may well involve insisting that he was a patriotic soldier who followed orders. Political blame should fall on the politicians who sent the military to fight a war without a clear political strategy. Thus, Humala says of the war, in obvious allusion to Alan García in particular, “those most responsible were some candidates to the presidency who took the decision to abandon he emergency zones as a state, and hand them over to the armed forces. These politicians sent soldiers to fight where they did not know what to do.”
All of this fits with something palpable in the thinking of Humala’s supporters, and which helps explain Humala’s so-called “Teflon.” Namely, that the war with the Shining Path has left this country so deeply divided about the issue of responsibility for the violence that allegations of human rights abuses are taken with a grain of salt by Humala’s supporters.
Human rights abuses were committed by the armed forces, as exhaustively documented by the Truth Commission, because the armed forces were given political cover by the government of Fujimori to fight the war any means necessary. The enthusiastic support received by Alberto Fujimori, even as he built a political regime that guaranteed impunity, was based on this complicity. Thus allegations that Humala, as Captain Carlos, committed human rights abuses in this war do not necessarily rock his public support, or ruin his image.
The real question is whether Humala can construct a narrative about his role in Madre Mia in which he emerges as a patriotic soldier—something not entirely inconsistent with the allegations against him, at least in the collective conscience of this battered nation.
Inequality as an Election Issue
By Fabiola Bazo
February 19, 2006
Signs of socio-economic exclusion form an inescapable part of everyday life in Lima. Poverty is in-your-face. The macroeconomic boom, far from diminishing the problem, has only made the gap between rich and poor more conspicuous. A large number of people not only perceive little tangible improvement in their socio-economic conditions, they have lost hope that things will change. Lacking any unemployment insurance or social security, not only the indigent but even members of the impaupered middle class live with the constant fear that their lives could be destroyed by sudden illness or unemployment.
If there is one reason for Alejandro Toledo’s low level of approval, it is that he awoke hope that his government would create employment and reduce poverty. There have been, as Mirko Lauer notes, 60 months of sustained growth and this has been a bonanza for large firms, which have seen their profits swell, but all the abundance has had remarkably little impact in the pocket books of the majority of workers and employees.
Although Peru is experiencing impressive levels of economic growth, not only is the wealth not trickling down, it seems to be trickling-up. Jorge Bruce argues that the current election campaign should make a space for debate on the economic model. He argues that social exclusion is not an economic problem, but a political and ethical one, and calls for research on the gaps between the profits earned by shareholders of large firms and the earnings or workers. Are the earnings of workers and employees in those parts of the economy that are booming adequate to cover basic needs, like education, health and housing?
Santiago Pedraglio discusses the “Agreement for Social and Responsible Mining,” where representatives from local governments, mining networks, NGOs, entrepreneurs and large mining companies, got together to sign an accord for sustainable development and strategic partnership. This agreement is a potentially significant step toward acknowledging that inequality, extreme poverty and exclusion are obstacles to sustainable development.
In a sad commentary on public officials, Pedraglio argues that the views inherent in this agreement are more democratic and inclusionary than those held by public administrators in the Ministries of Finance, Energy and Mines, and the Prime Minister’ Office. Those holding a government position (either by election or appointment) show a lack of vision and initiative in tackling the limitations of the current economic model. That is why it is so disturbing to see electoral platforms that lack convincing policy ideas for how to deal with the socio-economic exclusion most Peruvian face. If we add to this lack of political will to challenge the status quo, the fact the Peruvian state lacks instruments to redistribute wealth (labour legislation, a fair tax system, social security), Peru may face social unrest in the future no matter who gets elected.
Chavez Helps Humala Win Peruvian Voters in Venezuela?
The Venezuelan government is, reportedly, giving residency to Peruvians living as illegal immigrants in Venezuela in return for voting for Humala. While surely no one puts this sort of thing past Chavez, the allegation is made by his arch-enemies, the Christian Democrats of COPEI, and is presented without any supporting evidence. Moreover, the Peruvian voter list has been closed for months and the vote is, after all, secret.
Ollanta Humala Receiving Intelligence from the Army
According to La Republica, intelligence reports are being passed to Humala from a member of his graduating class, Fernando Ormachea Montes. Military support for the candidate is reminiscent of the support given to Alberto Fujimori by Vladimiro Montesinos during the 1990 campaign.
El Nuevo “Look” de Alan García
Alan García, candidato a la presidencia por el APRA, ha realizado un radical giro de 360 grados en su imagen: de ser un candidato “estirado” al ritmo de vals ha pasado a ser una jovial persona que emite sus discursos al ritmo del reggaeton, todo esto porque los jóvenes están en la mira de su campaña electoral.
ONPE Opts for Single List
The whole question of whether there should be one list for voters to mark on election day, or two, might seem at once boring and inconsequential. It is, however, an example of the sort of problem that could be occasioned by incompetence in the electoral authorities, with the consequence that the door could be opened to questioning of the outcome of the election.
Carmen Rosa Balbi Evaluates the Electoral Process
El Comercio: Human Rights Issues Distorted in Election Campaign
The Alluvial Nationalism of Ollanta Humala
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 17, 2006
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Ollanta Humala, the nationalist candidate for Unión Por el Perú, chose Las Malvinas, an old factory district that has been reconverted into a sort of industrial park for small businesses, to drive home his message that Peru needs to promote national production based on the domestic market to generate employment and a more equitable distribution of wealth.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Avenida Argentina used to be a major industrial center where thousands of workers found full time, unionized employment. When the economic crisis of the 1980s gutted the factory sector, thousands of workers were laid off. Many found precarious employment in the informal sector. The area of Avenida Argentina known as Las Malvinas, in the center of Lima, was overrun by the black market. Today, there is still evidence of black market activity: someone offered me a cell phone as I walked down the street. Even the relatively formal market activity operates in the grey area between legal and illegal. I bought a New York Yankees cap for 5 soles (about US $1.50) that was clearly made in Peru, though there was no tag to indicate where or by whom. I doubt the Yankees got their royalties.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
The plan was for supporters of the comandante to gather in the market place around 10:00 am. The notice of the meeting was spread by “radio bemba,” or word-of-mouth. The secretaries of organization of various base committees were notified, and they sent out the word to their supporters. “We don’t have a lot of resources,” said one Humalista, “our resource is our presence.” Supporters arrived by combi (microbuses) or on foot, carrying placards and banners, pamphlets and flags. Within about an hour, the crowd had growth to two or three hundred people. Most conspicuous were the retired or reserve military officers in bright red shirts who formed the security detail for the meeting. “Don’t worry,” said one of the red shirts to the four rather conspicuous observers in my party, “we’ll watch out for you.”
Photo: M.A. Cameron
One of the first on the scene was Rosa Dueñas, candidate number 13 to the Andean Parliament. Dueñas was a council member in Lima when Alfonso Barrantes was mayor back in the 1980s. She was a founder of the Vaso de Leche, a popular program which offered a glass of milk to every poor child in the shantytowns of Lima. She has worked for years with battered women and for indigenous women’s rights. Today, she is with Humala.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
She said she could not support Lourdes Flores because whenever she approached Flores’ office in congress in her capacity as a leader of indigenous women, she could never get in the door. “What happened to the left?” I asked. “Nobody was willing to sacrifice hegemony,” she said. “Everyone wanted to be a leader, so there was no unity.” Today there are four mini-parties of the left, which collectively claim about 5 percent of the electorate according to the polls. Unless trends change, not one of them is likely to cross the 4 percent threshold necessary to win parliamentary representation. This vacuum has created an opportunity for someone like Humala.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
I asked Dueñas whether she was bothered by the accusations that Humala has committed human rights abuses. Her response says a lot about Humala’s “Teflon”: “he is part of the people,” she said. She then described a massive meeting in Huaycán yesterday evening, which received little attention in the print media, in which Humala spoke out against the violence that the Shining Path had caused. Huaycán was one of the neighborhoods in Lima where the Shining Path not only established a foothold, but where they acted with great viciousness. For example, Pascuala Rosado, a prominent local leader, was killed by the Shining Path in Huaycán. According to Dueñas, and others with whom we spoke, Humala’s condemnation of the Shining Path was well received. It is becoming clear that Humala’s response to the allegations of his involvement in human rights crimes will be to emphasize his patriotic service in the fight against the Shining Path. According to Dueñas, Humala has scars from the war that he will reveal later in the campaign.
Another person responded to the same question by saying that the Shining Path committed many abuses, and Humala has the merit of having fought against them. Moreover, whereas the soldiers were uniformed, the Shining Path blended into the trees and that made it hard to fight them. In a not-so-subtle way, human rights abuses are justified in this framing of the issue. Might the very population that was the target of human rights abuses excuse these abuses as long as they see the perpetrator as among “the people”?
Such is the enormous complexity of the conflict that Peru has undergone that it may be possible for people to believe, on the one hand, that the Shining Path, though condemnable, was opposed to an unjust order, and, on the other hand, that the military, whose duty was to defend the country, committed grave abuses. Someone holding these conflicting views might be prepared to overlook crimes committed by a soldier in this war, even—or perhaps especially—if the person in question was a target of violence during the war, provided the actions are construed in such a way as to place the perpetrator on the side of the people.
In this sense, the real challenge for Humala is not to deny that he committed abuses, which more people believe to be true than believe to be false, but to present himself as a defender of the people. That he committed abuses may be less important than whether such abuses can be somehow assimilated into a story in which Humala is cast in the role of defender of “the people.”
Consider the story of one of Humala’s supporters, who expressed frustration bordering on desperation and rage. There is a sense of desperation that comes from not knowing how to provide the next meal, from not knowing how to provide a better future to one’s children. The woman I spoke with came from a base committee in Comas. Originally from Huánuco, an area afflicted by terrorism, she arrived in Lima at the age of 18 in 1984. She found work for a year as a domestic employee in the residence of an ambassador, but since then has been unable to find steady work. Her son, now 17 and unable to find employment, is about to join the army. “People want a civil war with big capitalists” she said. Slightly shocked, I commented that nearly 70,000 people died in a civil war between 1980 and 2000. She backtracked a bit and then said “if Humala does not win, there will be civil war.” She went on to say that Peru needs a military leader like Humala, because only such a strong leader could change Peru, impose order so that there are not so many prostitutes, beggars, and thieves, and force big business to pay taxes. As for whether Humala may have committed abuses, if so he was only carrying out orders.
Another fact that may attenuate the effect of accusations of human rights abuses is the view that poverty is an abuse of the human right to a minimum level of wellbeing that does not exist for half of Peru’s population. Insofar as Humala has created the expectation that he will do something about poverty, the criticisms of human rights abuses may be muted. Last week a worker was killed when he was crushed by concrete during excavation in a building project. The site was unsafe, and a wall collapsed due to vibrations caused by a passing bus. This came up as an example of the daily injustices suffered by Peru’s poor.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
A bit before noon, Humala finally arrived, phalanxed by his own bodyguards who, we were assured, were well armed. Yet he seemed vulnerable in what immediately became a mob scene in which scores of supporters pressed in to shake his hand and offer their encouragement. Humala seemed to revel in the attention as he moved through the market place greeting vendors and bystanders. We were witness to highly enthusiastic, spontaneous expressions of support. For his part, Humala comes across as an ordinary Joe.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
When he reached a central location, Humala, surrounded by perhaps two hundred people (the rest of his supporters being outside, on the street), was handed a microphone from which to speak. He could not be seen by the crowd, however, nor heard because the spectators would not tone down. Someone brought a stool, and Humala was lifted up to speak. After a lengthy applause, Humala was at last able to make a brief speech.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
The content was simple, and clearly directed at the audience. Peru needs more national production based on the internal market. He congratulated the local vendors, the small and medium entrepreneurs in the market, for their efforts, and insisted on the need for a redistribution of income. At one point, someone yelled out a taunt against SODIMAC, a Chilean company, part of the conglomerate that owns Falabella, which sells home hardware and construction materials—the direct competitor of Las Malvinas.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
After the speech, Humala proceeded to walk down the street, and through various other markets before getting into his car—a now familiar maroon SUV—and heading off.
While there is a lot of diversity in the ideas expressed by Humala’s grassroots supporters, a key theme that emerged in many conversations was control over natural resources. One Humalista stated that Canadians are destroying humanity within their mining activities. A very thoughtful, university-educated supporter of Humala intervened and suggested that one should not generalize from the activities of a few companies to an entire country. Clearly, however, control over natural resources is a major unifying theme. “Gas is cheaper in Chile, and they import” complained another nationalist.
Humala’s supporters appear to be quite convinced that public opinion polls are deeply flawed, biased in favor of Lourdes Flores, and as inaccurate in Peru as they were in Bolivia where Evo Morales was elected in the first round to the surprise of those who, following the polls, expected him to fall 10 percent short of the mark. “We are the power now,” (nosotros somos poder ya) confidently proclaimed one leader. Indeed, the popular support for Humala seems to have been a big surprise to the nationalists. One party organizer, a leader of the “National Association of Lawyers” for Humala, said that support for his leader has been “alluvial.” The original intention was to build a party to support a candidate for 2011, but the pressure of the masses forced them to enter the race. Carmen Rosa Balbi, who teaches sociology at the Catholic University in Peru, observed Humala’s walk through Las Malvinas. Balbi has written extensively on working class politics and protest, and she was struck by the enthusiasm and apparent spontaneity of the support shown for Humala. She also noted the coherence of Humala’s discourse, which seemed to be music to the ears of his audience in Las Malvinas.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich: Ollanta Humala’s Decline, No more than Wishful Thinking
Minister of Defence Marciano Rengifo on “Captain Carlos” Identity: “Officially Captain Carlos Doesn’t Exist”
In a shocking interview with Caretas 1912, Minister of Defense Marciano Rengifo stated there is nothing to investigate regarding “Captain Carlos identity”. The armed forces do not have official records of war pseudonyms. Officers might have used these names in the localities where they were posted, however, these officers reported to their superiors with their real names. As a result, there is no information about “Captain Carlos”. For Minister Rengifo, he did not exist. Download file
APRODEH and the Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos have rejected the Minister’s comments.
DATUM National Poll February 10-13, 2006: Lourdes Flores 29%
Source: La República, 17 de febrero del 2006
Según el último sondeo a nivel nacional realizado por la empresa Datum, Lourdes Flores Nano, candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), se mantiene en el primer lugar de las preferencias electorales con un 29%. Ollanta Humala se mantiene segundo con 24% a una distancia de 9% de Alan García, que tiene 15%. Valentín Paniagua se mantiene cuarto con un alejado 8%. La encuesta revela que el 55% de los ciudadanos ya decidió su voto, un 23% no se decide entre 2 ó 3 candidatos y hay un 12% de indecisos. Un 10% piensa votar en blanco.
Este sondeo fue realizado entre el 10 y 13 de febrero a un total de 2444 personas en 17 departamentos a nivel nacional, incluyéndose a la provincia constitucional de Callao. El margen de error del estudio es de +/- 2% y cuenta con un nivel de confianza de 95%.
Acceda a la encuesta completa en pdf