Archive for February, 2006
Humala acusado formalmente de desaparición forzada y torturas
El pasado miércoles los familiares de cinco las presuntas víctimas del “Capitán Carlos” presentaron 3 denuncias por desaparición forzada y torturas ante la Fiscalía de Tocache, demanda que también comprendió al alto mando del Frente Huallaga durante el año 1992. Nadine Herrera, esposa de Humala, aseguró que su cónyuge acudirá a dar su manifestación cuando sea citado. El líder del Partido Nacionalista declaro a los medios la semana pasada que iria a Madre Mía la segunda quincena de marzo. Su partido no ha ultimado detalles de este viaje como parte de la campaña electoral.
Doble cédula de votación de la ONPE es anulada por el JNE
Argumentando que la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) no siguió los procedimientos de ley para definir la doble balota de sufragio que se usará el 9 de abril, el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones anuló su cédula de votación. Según una resolución publicada en El Peruano, 112-2006-JNE, incumplió con presentar a los partidos políticos el diseño de la cédula y otorgarles el tiempo determinado para que presenten sus impugnaciones u observaciones requisitos de ley; pero la titular de la ONPE, Magdalena Chu, sostuvo que este modelo sí fue consultado a los personeros de los partidos en más de una oportunidad y no hubieron oposiciones al respecto. Se habrían gastado más de S/. 6 millones en la impresión de “material de capacitación” para la aplicación de este doble documento.
IDICE Lima & Callao Poll, February 10-11, 2006: Only 5 Political Parties would Get Seats in Congress
Source: La Republica, February 16, 2006
Source: La Primera, 16 de febrero del 2006
Survey made by Idice del Peru Intencion de Voto al Congreso Download file
Sample: 1,020 people in Lima and 120 in Callao interviewed between February 10-11, 2006. Margin of error: +/- 4.5%.
Martin Tanaka: The Great Challenge is to Make it to the Second Round
Iglesia Católica vs Ollanta Humala
Tras conocerse el pronunciamiento del Compromiso ético por el Perú, las reflexiones de los obispos sobre la coyuntura electoral, el presidente de la Conferencia Episcopal Peruana (CEP), monseñor Miguel Cabrejos, manifestó al diario Perú 21 que la Iglesia Católica no es la que debe decir si Ollanta Humala violó o no los derechos humanos, pero éticamente debe realizarse una investigación para definir sus responsabilidades.
Ollanta Humala presentó su plan de gobierno a los industriales
Ollanta Humala, junto con su equipo económico encabezado por Gonzalo García Núñez, expuso por primera vez el día de ayer, su plan de gobierno ante los miembros de la Sociedad Nacional de Industrias (SNI), en el que pudieron apreciar contradicciones y descordinaciones en algunos puntos, como la disminución del IGV (propuesto por Carlos Torres Caro, candidato a la segunda vicepresidencia), o en las aplicaciones de impuestos a las sobreganancias en el sector minero.
Santiago Pedraglio on Lourdes Flores & Ollanta Humala: Two Opposite Views of the Establishment
Alfredo Torres: Ollanta Humala’s Teflon
During an interview with Cadena Peruana de Noticias, Alfredo Torres, general manager of APOYO Opinion y Mercado, argued that Ollanta Humala’s support base is unexpectedly strong. The candidate seems to enjoy a certain “teflon effect,” in the sense that the attacks against him have not had a major impact on voter intentions.
Torres also argued that Lourdes Flores’s campaign strategy may need some rethinking as a result of the 2 percent decline in support she has registered in the last poll. Internal disputes could weaken her candidacy. Moreover, she is not making concrete proposals like Alan Garcia and Valentin Paniagua.
Mirko Lauer on the Undecided Vote
According to Mirko Lauer, the most important news in the recent APOYO poll is the 10 percent increase in the number of undecided voters over the past month.
APOYO National Poll, February 8-10, 2006
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado en exclusiva para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 8-10 de febrero del 2006. Universo: 2,000 personas en zonas urbanas y rurales del Peru. Download file
APOYO’s reply to Controversy to Presentation of Data
Source: La República, 14 de febrero del 2006
The head of APOYO, Alfredo Torres, confirmed that the most recent poll, by calculating support for candidates according to the response by decided voters rather than all respondents, concealed a decline in support for Lourdes Flores. When her support is calculated based on all respondents, which is the methodology used in previous surveys, the gap between Flores and Humala narrows from 10 to seven percent.
Alfredo Torres, el director de la empresa encuestadora Apoyo Opinión y Mercados admitió que la interpretación del último sondeo, en el cual se contabilizaron solo los votos válidos no deja claro la caida de intencion de voto hacia Lourdes Flores. Si se hubiesen incluido los votos indecisos (representan 22%), la diferencia entre la candidata de Unidad Nacional y Ollanta Humala hubiese sido de 7 y no de 10 puntos. APOYO continuará en sus próximos sondeos contando únicamente el voto válido.
Ollanta Humala will Visit Madre Mía (Huanuco) in March
Tras anunciar nuevamente que está dispuesto a someterse a la justicia, el candidato presidencial de Unión por el Perú (UPP) visitaría Madre Mía (Huánuco) para afrontar las acusaciones de quienes lo sindican de ser el “Capitán Carlos”, violador de los DDHH, hecho que ha comprometido su carrera electoral.
34 congresistas buscan reelección
Source: La República, 14 de febrero del 2006
34 congresistas de 6 agrupaciones políticas buscarán la reelección en el próximo proceso electoral del 9 de abril. Significan la cuarta parte del Congreso.
Alan Garcia’s Harsh Criticisms of APOYO Poll
Alan García, candidato por el APRA, acusó a la empresa Apoyo de manipular sus sondeos, considerando solo los votos válidos, para favorecer a Lourdes Flores.
Rosa Maria Palacios: Does Peru’s Elite Care about Human Rights?
According to television news show host Rosa Maria Palacios, whenever she talks about the Truth and Reconciliation Commission viewers from privileged strata (the so-called A and B viewers) turn off the TV. That is, they did until the attacks on Ollanta Humala began. Now, A and B viewers can’t get enough of human rights denunciations!
APOYO National Poll: Candidates Views
Candidatos de las principales agrupaciones políticas opinaron al diario Perú 21 sobre los resultados de la última encuesta de Apoyo Opinión y Mercado realizada entre el 8 y 10 de febrero pasado a nivel nacional.
Alberto Adrianzen and Juan Sheput Critize Results of Latest APOYO Poll
Comenzaron los cuestionamientos a la última encuesta de Apoyo. El analista político Alberto Adrianzén indicó que es un error hablar de votos válidos cuando ha aumentado el número de indecisos, creándose una falsa ilusión de crecimiento de la candidata de Unidad Nacional; mientras que el dirigente de Perú Posible Juan Sheput, denunció una “manipulación grosera” por resaltar arbitrariamente la candidatura de Lourdes Flores al considerarse solo los votos válidos omitiéndose los blancos y viciados.
APOYO Poll – Congressional Preferences: Five Parties with Chance to Obtain Seats
Source: El Comercio, 13 de febrero del 2006
Según la última encuesta de El Comercio elaborada por Apoyo con entrevistas a dos mil personas en ciudades y el campo a nivel nacional, sólo 5 grupos pasarían la valla electoral (que es de 4%) para colocar más representantes en el Congreso: Unidad Nacional, APRA, Unión por el Perú, Frente de Centro y Alianza por el Futuro, a la vez que guardan algunas posibilidades Perú Posible y Justicia Nacional, ambos con 3% en dicha encuesta.
Interviews with Ollanta Humala
Los periodistas Emilio Camacho del diario La República y Adán Ríos de Perú 21, conversaron en Piura con Ollanta Humala, quien se encuentra de gira por distintas ciudades del norte del país, tocando temas como los de las acusaciones en su contra por abusos a los DDHH en el Alto Huallaga, su principal rival, Lourdes Flores Nano, denominada por él como la “candidata de los ricos” y los resultados de la última encuesta realizada por la empresa Apoyo Opinión y Mercado. Tambien reproducimos una entrevista con el diario español ABC
Alan García on Lourdes Flores & Ollanta Humala
Para Alan García Pérez, candidato a la presidencia de la República por el APRA, Lourdes Flores no representa un cambio y Ollanta Humala es la improvisación en política.
Preliminary Thoughts on the APOYO Poll
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 12, 2006
In broad-brush strokes, the recent APOYO poll confirms the main trends that have recently been observable in the election process. The survey has been much anticipated because it covers both rural and urban areas, includes 2,000 respondents, was conducted by the most respected polling firm in Peru, and was commissioned and is distributed by the nation’s leading newspaper, El Comercio.
The poll finds that the candidacy of Ollanta Humala, which reached as high as 32 percent in the polls in early January, has stalled at around 25 percent. Front-runner Lourdes Flores has sustained a strong 10 percent point lead over Humala for the past fortnight, while García has flat-lined with about 17 percent support. Nothing here is especially unexpected.
The most novel and interesting information to be gleaned from the APOYO poll lies in the details.
In the first place, it is important to note what has not happened. Humala has not been destroyed by the allegations that he committed human rights abuses in Madre Mia in 1992 (for a summary of the allegations, see the commentary by Fernando Rospigliosi below). The last APOYO poll was conducted on Wednesday to Friday, the 25th to the 27th of January, shortly after the first denunciation of human rights abuses were aired by Panorama on Sunday January 22. Afterwards, on Sunday January 29, there were further reports in Panorama, Reporte Semanal. In addition, newspapers like La Republica carried stories on Humala’s alleged human rights abuses on the Sunday and Monday of February 5-6. Peru.21 also published photos of Humala in Madre Mia on Tuesday and Wednesday of February 7-8, which coincides with this poll (conducted on Wednesday to Friday, February 8-10). Notwithstanding the seriousness of these denunciations, the support for Humala has dropped by only 2 points between the two polls. It may have dropped more if the January 27 poll, conducted only in cities, underreported support for Humala.
Only 9 percent of those who were interviewed had not heard the allegations against Humala. 41 percent said they thought the accusations were true, while 28 percent thought they were false, and 22 percent did not answer the question. Here there is clearly room for hardening of opinion—either in the direction of greater conviction that Humala is guilty or that he is innocent or it does not matter.
The gap between Humala and García has narrowed from 11 to 8 percent, as Humala has slipped from 27 to 25 percent and García has risen from 16 to 17 percent. There is now a race for second place between these two candidates (see commentary in La Republica by Carlos Reyna below). This explains, in part, Humala’s attack on Garcia (he should step aside because he has already had the chance to govern) and García’s angry response (Humala should turn himself into the authorities for his human rights abuses).
Martha Chávez has consolidated her position as the number 5 candidate. She now has about 6 percent, placing her just behind Paniagua who has slid from 10 to 8 percent. Paniagua’s slide was predictable and may be irreversible. Chávez is unlikely to emerge as a strong contender, but she may be taking back Fujimorista votes that were bleeding to Humala at an earlier stage. Chávez may be taking a small number of feminine votes from Flores.
Flores is the front-runner almost entirely by virtue of her popularity with women. She has a whopping 43 percent of the female vote, while Humala is the narrow front-runner among men with 31 percent of the male vote. Gender is turning out to be a major factor in this election. Flores also has a big plurality of the youth vote (40 percent of those between 18 and 24 years of age), and has 43 percent of the support of those living in Lima, compared with 20 percent for Humala in the metropolitan capital.
If gender is a factor, so is region. Humala is strongest in the southern and central highlands and the jungle, where he has 44, 36 and 30 percent respectively. Flores dominates Arequipa and the southern coast, and does well in the northern highlands, with 40 percent and 28 percent respectively. García’s strength remains in the “solid north,” the only place where he is in contention for first spot with 30 percent. Overall, the support for Flores across the country is impressive. Only in the southern highlands is she really behind with only 20 percent (less than half Humala’s support).
The battlegrounds regions are: the north (Flores vs. García); the northern highlands (all three front runners are close); the central highlands (Humala vs. Flores); and the jungle (Flores vs Humala).
Perhaps more than gender and region, however, the polarization in this election is around class. As one moves from the wealthier to the poorer strata (from groups A to E in the categories used by public opinion polling), support for Flores gets weaker–from 65 percent in A, to 44 percent in B, and roughly one third (between 33 and 31 percent) of the vote in the groups C through E. The inverse holds for Humala. He has the support of only 6 percent in A, 15 in B, and between 23 and 32 percent in C through E. The war between Humala and Flores will be fought by votes in C, D, and E, the vas majority of the electorate.
There is something about the socioeconomic breakdown of this poll that is puzzling. For all the candidates except Humala and Flores, the overall level of support is something roughly equivalent to the mean score in the votes in sectors D and E. For example, Paniagua has 9 percent in D, 7 percent in E, and his overall support is 8 percent. The same is true for Chávez and García. Yet the overall support for Humala and Flores is closer to the mean between groups C and D. Flores has 35 percent overall, which is slightly above the mean of her vote in sectors C and D. I am a little surprised that she has 35 percent overall when she does not reach that level in C, D, or E. Her overwhelming support in sectors A and B must explain the difference. Humala, on the other hand, has an overall support level of 25 percent even though his support in sectors D and E (presumably the largest groups) is 29 and 32 percent.
The obvious question is how well does the sample map onto the actual socioeconomic structure of the country?
APOYO National Poll, February 8-10, 2006: Dispute for Second Place
Source: El Comercio, February 12, 2006
Source: El Comercio, February 12, 2006
Sample: 2000 people in 171 districts in113 localities in 78 provinces. Margin of error: +/- 2.2%
Lourdes Flores Supports Payout to Baruch Ivcher
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 11, 2006
One criticism of Lourdes Flores is that she tends to adopt positions that reflect a technocratic world view, rather than a more political one. Thus, for example, in a recent meeting with the foreign press, Flores insisted that she would respect all contracts with foreign investors. Valentín Paniagua, of the Frente de Centro had just proposed a modification to the contract to exploit natural gas of Camisea. You might say that Flores’ position was that of the good technocrat, while Paniagua’s position was that of a good politician. Which ever view you support, there is a clear difference.
Something of the same technocratic instinct seems to be behind Flores’ surprising defense of the decision by the Peruvian executive to pay 20 million Soles (about US $6 million) to Baruch Ivcher in recompense for the expropriation of his television station during the Fujimori government. Her position was based on technical grounds: this was money the state owed due to arbitrary actions committed in the past. Other candidates have been a bit more cautious, emphasizing the lack of transparency and equity in this payment. In a country where minimum wage is about US $150 per month, one would expect all the candidates to think about the optics of making a payment of $6 million to a well-connected and influential businessman.
Ollanta Humala in Callao
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 11, 2006
In a meeting in Callao, Ollanta Humala attacked adversaries Alan Garcia and Lourdes Flores. He suggested that Garcia should “take a step aside” and not run for election since has has already had his chance to serve as president. Lourdes Flores was criticized for supporting the outcome of the war with Ecuador. According to Humala, the area of Tiwinza was given away by the politicians after the soldiers had fought the war.
We also reprint a story in La Republica from February 7th that we initially overlooked. A colleague of mine called this to our attention. Humala is quoted by La Republica saying “I am a soldier…I served my country in a time of war. I have been in Huancayo, Ayacucho and in the Cordillera del Cóndor.” He then said that those who criticize his conduct as a soldier “have never even done military service.” As my colleague reminded me, middle class youth commonly bribed their way out of doing military service at the time of the conflict with the Shining Path. As a result, almost all the conscripts were poor kids. Humala may touch a nerve with that sector of the population.
Los dimes y diretes del caso Hildebrandt – Ivcher
Jorge Bazo Escudero
10 de febrero del 2006
Tras las revelaciones del periodista César Hildebrandt en el programa de espectáculos “Magaly TV” sobre el cheque por S/.20’378,000 que el presidente de Frecuencia Latina, Baruch Ivcher, recibió el 22 de diciembre pasado como indemnización de parte del estado por la expropiación del Canal 2 en el gobierno de Alberto Fujimori, llegaron los descargos de los implicados. Ivcher afirmó que por una cuestión de seguridad no tenía porque hacer público el pago de 20 millones de dólares que le realizó el estado peruano como indemnización y que la sentencia de la Corte de Costa Rica indicaba que el estado violó mis derechos judiciales, por lo que sus ex socios, los hermanos Winter, quedaban exonerados de este pago. Por otra parte, el primer ministro Pedro Pablo Kuczynski justificó el pago de reparación al empresario televisivo y acusó a Hildebrandt de actuar con “saña”; a la vez que Fernando Olivera, manifestó que quienes deberían de pagar esta indemnización son el ex presidente Alberto Fujimori, su asesor Vladimiro Montesinos y los hermanos Winter, porque fueron los causantes del daño a Ivcher. Como réplica, Hildebrandt sostuvo esta tarde que Kuczynski miente en el caso del monto del pago, porque la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos (CIDH) nunca fijo un monto requerido al demandante.
Pagina 12 on Current State of Peruvian Media
Carlos Noriega from Pagina 12 assesses the state of Peruvian media after the cancellation of Cesar Hildebrant program in Frecuencia Latina.
Congressional Lists Contain Poison Pills
Maxwell A. Cameron and Fabiola Bazo
February 10, 2006
The registration of candidates to the congress has generated polemics in a number of electoral parties and alliances, most significantly in Unidad Nacional and Unión Por el Perú.
Kurt Woll, José Luna and Raúl Castro are among the candidates for Lima and Callao in Unidad Nacional that have received the most flak.
There are problems in Ollanta Humala’s congressional list. UPP recently went through what many regard as a somewhat tepid purge as a result of which Gerardo Sulca from Apurímac was withdrawn. In response, grassroots supporters from Apurímac have withdrawn their support for Humala. Candidates for Cuzco and Arequipa face serious allegations and charges against them.
Problems have also beset the Fujimoristas, where Diego Uceda has resigned because the list includes individuals of dubious reputation. One of the most dubious candidates for the Alianza para el Futuro is José Dellepiane, the naval officer close to Vladimiro Montesinos who was responsible for judicial reforms under Fujimori. Martha Chavez claims that the Fujimori government (1990-2000) was a victim Vladimiro Montesinos. Yet there is a candidate on the congressional list of her alliance who was a key collaborator with Montesinos in the encroachment by the executive on the independence of the judiciary under Fujimori.
An excellent editorial on the topic of congressional lists by Augusto Alvarez Rodrich is reproduced below, as well as a report by La Republica. There is also a good report by Peru.21 on Luna Galvez. Flores would like to close the case, but Luna Galvez was a “topo” (mole–that is, someone who was elected as a member of the opposition cut a secret deal to support the Fujimori government in 2000). There are a number of witnesses who claim he took money from Montesinos.
7 candidatos de Alianza para el Futuro tienen procesos abiertos por el sistema anticorrupción
El ex congresista Luis Delgado Aparicio y Diego Uceda, dirigente de Sí Cumple, renunciaron a esta agrupación porque se incluyeron en la lista parlamentaria de Alianza para el Futuro a ex funcionarios cuestionados, incluidos algunos ministros del régimen fujimorista, solo para evadir la justicia:
1. La ex primera dama de la Nación, Keiko Fujimori es procesada por la supuesta apropiación ilícita de un container de ropa donada por la ONG World Wide Vision (USA) para las víctimas del Fenómeno del Niño en 1998.
2. El candidato a la primera vicepresidencia, Santiago Fujimori, tiene un juicio pendiente por la compra irregular del avión presidencial Boeing 737-528 por US$ 25 millones, en 1995.
3. El ex secretario ejecutivo de la Comisión Ejecutiva del Poder Judicial y ex jefe de la Corporación de Desarrollo de Lima y Callao (Cordelica) José Dellepiane Mazza es procesado por el uso de fondos públicos para la campaña de reelección de Fujimori.
4. Los publicistas de Fujimori, Carlos Orellana Quintanilla y Carlos Raffo Arce son procesados en el sistema anticorrupción por recibir importantes sumas de dinero de Vladimiro Montesinos para la reelección de Fujimori.
5. El ex ministro de Agricultura, Jaime Sobero es procesado por su participación en el golpe de 1992.
6. El ex ministro Manuel Vara Ochoa está incluido en los procesos por la compra de congresistas tránsfugas y topos y por los vladipolos.
Baruch Ivcher recibió indemnización del estado por 20 millones de soles
Tras denunciar el lunes 6 de febrero en el programa de espectáculos “Magaly TV” el matrimonio existente entre los medios y el poder económico, el periodista César Hildebrant se presentó sorpresivamente por segunda vez en este programa para mostrar la copia de un cheque girado por el Ministerio de Justicia a nombre de Baruch Ivcher, dueño de Frecuencia Latina, por la cantidad de 20 millones de soles, por el concepto de una indemnización que reclamaba al gobierno por los perjuicios económicos que le provocó la confiscación de su canal durante el gobierno de Alberto Fujimori, cantidad superior a la compensación económica que ordenó la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos el 2001. Atribuye a este hecho como el causal del retiro de su programa del aire.
Lourdes Flores’ Up-Close and “Hyper-Personal” Campaign
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 9, 2006
In a meeting with the Asociación de Prensa Extranjera en el Perú (APEP) in the Hotel Los Delfines in Lima, Lourdes Flores Nano, candidate for the National Unity alliance, argued that this election is about character and the need to restore trust and hope in politics. She said her campaign emphasizes her closeness to people, and establishes direct contact with voters as much as possible. It also emphasizes her personal attributes of hard work, integrity, and the ability to listen. This came in response to a question from a journalist who suggested that her campaign, unlike the campaign of APRA’s Alan García, does not focus on concrete specifics, but rather emphasizes macro issues. Flores said she thinks the campaign will not be driven by issues, and, in response to a question about her ties to powerful groups in the economy and the media, she repeated the point that her campaign has been “hyper-personal,” one of closeness and direct, personal dialogue.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Flores said she has sought to address the hopelessness that characterizes the present moment. As a female candidate she feels she can generate some hope through her own credibility and empathy. This is a small advantage, she admitted, but it is important in the current climate of skepticism. As a woman, she would bring a different sensibility to politics, a different way of doing things. This would imply, for one thing, a combination of responsible economics with an emphasis on social policy change. Flores made her now familiar claim that Peruvians are tired of waiting for economic benefits to trickle down, she proposed policies to overcome social exclusion—including modernization of agriculture, promotion of small and medium sized business, and encouragement of tourism—and she argued that the state must be both strong and efficient.
In response to the argument that gender is an advantage she possesses in this campaign, one reporter asked whether not being a mother was a disadvantage. Flores said that, yes, she breaks the traditional mold. Normally people think of a politician as being a man of a certain age, married with children. However, her status as a single woman means that she can devote her energies fully to her work. This answer rings true, and may tap into some powerful sentiments among women. The claim is that if you are a woman in politics you are better off being single. A man with wife and children could devote himself entirely to politics and nobody would ask why he was not a more devoted family man. A woman is not granted that luxury, and hence faces the “double day” problem. If Peru is to have a woman for president, it is probably best that it be a single woman.
Flores’ strong emphasis on her own personal qualities reflects, in part, the deep disenchantment with political parties in the electorate. Her emphasis on hard-work and integrity is reminiscent of Alberto Fujimori, whose campaign slogan in 1990 was “honesty, technology, and work” (characteristics that were seen as attributes of people of Japanese ancestry). There is also evidence in Flores’ thinking of learning from the mistakes of the Vargas Llosa campaign–a campaign in which she participated. Vargas Llosa came off as aloof from voters, and as a politician who did not offer hope.
Vargas Llosa’s name came up in another occasion.
A question posed to Flores was whether she is being hurt by the perception of being closely tied to powerful economic interests and to the media, something that damaged Vargas Llosa in 1990 and allowed Fujimori to emerge as an insurgent candidate late in the campaign. Flores said that she has not been favored by the media, in fact she has been subjected to tough criticism. She also reiterated that she is not remote from the people. Her campaign style, which involves traveling the length and breadth of the country, is reminiscent of electoral campaigns of the 1950s.
The second time Vargas Llosa’s name was mentioned was in a question about the second round. Flores was realistic about the unlikelihood of winning in the first round, and said that the period between the first and second round would be critical in terms of establishing the kinds of alliances necessary to govern. She came close to entering the second round in 2001, and demonstrated her ability to win votes across sectors, so she can be confident that the sort of “anyone but Vargas Llosa” campaign that happened after the first round in 1990 would not be repeated. In 1990 there were disciplined parties—the left and APRA—that were able to direct their voters against the front-runner. In this election, there will be voters who may not have made her their first choice who would, nevertheless, be prepared to support her in a second round.
Returning to the issue of the media, Flores was asked about the recent cancellation of César Hildebrandt’s television show on Frecuencia Latina. Flores regretted Hildebrandt’s departure from the television, and reinforced what Hildebrandt himself has said: she needs no protection from the media and welcomes independent journalism.
Flores is clearly someone who enjoys discussing policy issues. She joked that any manual on political strategy would say that the front-runner should never convene a debate with the other candidates, but she said she has no problem with the confrontation of ideas in a format that is appropriate, and no difficulty facing a critical audience.
Flores is a strong debater and a policy wonk. She talked in depth about the problems in the mining sector, coca production, education reform, Chilean investment in Peruvian ports, policies to promote foreign direct investment, subsidies in agriculture, and Peru’s role in the international community. Her answers were impressive not only for the familiarity with the substance of the issues, but also for the logic of exposition. Her style tends to be to start with generalities, followed by a discussion of specifics, and to ensure in the process that the essence of the question is acknowledged. That alone is not necessarily extraordinary, but to do this for nearly two hours without making the slightest gaffe or political misstep, all the while speaking without notes and with complete clarity, is the mark of an impressive candidate.
If the Flores campaign has been impressive so far, its main vulnerability is the flip-side of its greatest strength: that is, the reliance on the appeal of the candidate. The strong emphasis on the candidate and her merits, and the reliance on close personal contact with voters as a means of cultivating an image of care and concern for ordinary people, could backfire. There are no solid organized linkages between voters and the political machinery behind the candidate. Support for Flores may be fickle. A lot will depend on her performance in the campaign—and in any future debate. Voters know they are not getting only Flores. They are also getting two vice presidential candidates, 120 candidates to congress, and a huge entourage that does not necessarily have her sensibility or appeal. The closer she gets to power, the more voters are going to start to look at the people around the candidate. The electorate will be turned off very quickly if political hacks around the candidate start acting like they can take power for granted (and begin to speculate about who gets to be prime minister, minister of this or that, and so forth). The recent debate over some of the less desirable names on the list of UN congressional candidates–what in local slang are called the “anticuchos”–is potentially the sort of discussion that could be most harmful.
A final note. According to La Republica (see below), Flores was harrassed by Humala supporters when she later attempted to visit with voters in Ate along the Carretera Central in Lima. The goal would seem to be to interrupt the “up-close and hyper-personal” relationship that Flores seeks to establish with voters.
3,000 por 120 curules al Congreso
Source: La República, 9 de febrero del 2006.
Jorge Bazo Escudero
9 de febrero del 2006
Fue un cierre al que la palabra “De Fiesta” le cayó como anillo al dedo, porque muchos de los partidos que se acercaron al Jurado Electoral Especial Lima Centro a inscribir sus candidatos al Congreso lo hicieron de las maneras más singulares y pintorescas, algunas bordando el ridículo con shows y personajes infantiles como Winnie The Pooh que fueron victimas del intenso calor, hubo conatos de pelea entre los militantes de grupos, mientras que otros inscribieron a polémicos personajes del folklore político como Ricardo Belmont o Celso Pastrana.
La cosa era llamar la atención a como de lugar, como fue el caso de Luis Guerrero, de Perú Ahora, quien llegó a bordo de su “bus Guerrero” a ritmo de carnaval cajamarquino y del FREPAP, partido del desaparecido Ezequiel Ataucusi, quienes prácticamente coparon las calles con una masiva asistencia de sus miembros en un corso con muchos peces y trajes típicos. Estas elecciones del 2006 pasarán a la historia por sus excentricidades, 25 agrupaciones con 120 candidatos cada una, 3,000 personas buscando una curul.
Al revisar las listas tenemos candidatos para todos los gustos, representando a las minorías sexuales tenemos a Manuel Alexander Andía Pérez “Belissa” (MNI) quien podría ser el primer transexual en llegar al Congreso, así como Susel Paredes (PS), representante de un movimiento que integra lesbianas, gays, bisexuales y transgéneros. Otro nombre sorpresa es el de Liliana Humala, expectorada del movimiento de su primo Ollanta Humala, quien encabeza la nómina de Reconstrucción Democrática por Lima. Por el grupo de los sindicalistas tenemos a Vicente Aponte, secretario general de Construcción Civil (Frente de Centro), Julio Herrera Pumayauli, del Sindicato de Trabajadores de Sedapal y Carlos Aguilar, presidente de la Federación de Canillitas (APRA). Representando all gremio militar-policial tenemos a Benedicto Jiménez (APRA), Oscar Pedraza (PS), Roberto Chiabra (PP), Daniel Mora (PP) y Celso Pastrana (Perú Ahora).
Entre los comunicadores sociales tenemos al resistido Ricardo Belmont (Frente de Centro), a los periodistas Guido Lombardi (UN), Gonzalo Iwasaki (FD) y el ex jefe de prensa de Palacio de Gobierno, Luis Alberto Chávez, (PP). No podían faltar los deportistas, esta vez no son ex-futbolistas, sino ex-matadoras como Cenaida Uribe y al basquetbolista y dirigente deportivo Alfredo Deza Fuller, ambos por el PNP; otras glorias del deporte de la net son Rosa García (AF), Gaby Pérez del Solar (UN) y Ana Cecilia Carrillo (APRA).
Las mayores sorpresas las tuvimos en cuanto a los artistas, tenemos a los actores Gustavo Bueno (Partido Socialista), Ricardo Fernández (APRA) y el director de teatro Federico García (MNI); en el área vernacular tenemos a la cantante Martina Portocarrero (RA), el cómico Edwin Sierra (Progresemos Perú) y el danzante de tijeras Rómulo Huamaní, “Qori Sicchilla” (PS), pero los nombres que a muchos causó extrañeza y provocaron más de una sonrisa fueron los de Abelardo Gutiérrez Alanya “Tongo”, cantante de música Chicha por (RA), el del cómico Pablo Villanueva “Melcochita” y el del cocinero “Don Pedrito”, Pedro Enrique Villalba García, quien va por Perú Ahora.
Para no perder la mala costumbre de “la hora peruana”, con la excepción de Unidad Nacional y el Frente de Centro, los partidos esperaron hasta el último día para inscribir sus nóminas. Esperemos que muchas de estas candidaturas queden en el plano de la anécdota y los ciudadanos apuesten por programas de gobierno y no por la simpatía de algún candidato en particular, que el “Síndrome Susy Díaz” sea sólo un mal recuerdo. El pueblo tiene la palabra.
Las Listas Parlamentarias
25 Partidos presentaron ayer sus listas parlamentarias:
1. Alianza para el Progreso
2. Unidad Nacional
3. Unión por el Perú
4. Frente de Centro
5. Perú Ahora
6. Renacimiento Andino
7. Partido Socialista
8. Resurgimiento Peruano
9. Concertación Descentralista
10. Fuerza Democrática
11. Frente Independiente Moralizador
12. Perú Posible
13. Partido Aprista Peruano
14. Frepap
15. Avanza País
16. Proyecto País
17. Justicia Nacional
18. Movimiento Nueva Izquierda
19. Progresemos Perú
20. Restauración Nacional
21. Alianza por el Futuro
22. Con Fuerza Perú
23. Y se llama Perú
24. Partido Nacionalista Peruano
25. Reconstrucción Democrática
Fernando Olivera declinó candidatura a la presidencia
Una nueva deserción en las candidaturas presidenciales. Tras dimitir el pasado 31 de enero Fernando Belaunde Aubry a la candidatura de Perú Posible, Fernando Olivera, líder del Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM), es el segundo en declinar, conformándose a ser el número 1 de la lista de candidatos al Congreso. Bajo índice de intención de voto en las encuestas sería el causal de esta decisión. El Plan de Gobierno del FIM será la base de su acción parlamentaria.
A pesar de los cuestionamientos Lourdes Flores respalda a sus candidatos al Congreso
Source: La República, 9 de febrero del 2006
Lourdes Flores Nano interrumpió su campaña proselitista en Tacna para enfrentar y dejar en claro todo lo referente a las inumerables críticas y cuestionamientos sobre José Luna Gálvez, Horacio Cánepa, Raúl Castro y Kurt Woll, candidatos al congreso por Unidad Nacional a quienes considera gente honesta y de mucha capacidad. En conferencia realizada el día de ayer, les reiteró su apoyo y manifestó que ella misma se ha encargado de revisar y evaluar cada una de las hojas de vida de cada uno de los miembros de su lista, que con ellos se cometían injusticias comprometiéndolos con hechos relacionados al narcotráfico, transfuguismo o fraude electoral.
La ausencia del enfoque Hildebrandt
There is a new blog about Peruvian politics and media. It has been created by three Peruvian journalists and researchers. Jacqueline Fowks also teaches journalism at the Catholic University. Here is her analysis of the cancellation of Hildebrandt’s show. Maybe we should get Hildebrandt started on a blog!
El ‘outsider’ como efecto del sistema
Maxwell A. Cameron (*)
February 8, 2006
Las graves denuncias contra Ollanta Humala pueden perjudicarlo como una opción para sectores del electorado que estarían contemplando apoyarlo para patear el tablero político. Sin embargo, el fenómeno de los candidatos ‘outsider’ merece análisis por que es, en parte, un efecto previsible del sistema presidencialista.
El presidencialismo es un sistema de elección directa del presidente por un plazo predeterminado que, bajo ciertas condiciones, puede generar líderes plebiscitarios que gobiernan al margen de la constitución y la ley. La irrupción de ‘outsiders’ en campañas electorales difícilmente ocurre en sistemas parlamentarios donde hay que ser elegido legislador para luego ser seleccionado por colegas a ocupar el puesto de primer ministro.
Muchos analistas definen el presidencialismo como sinónimo de la separación de poderes. No es así. Es más, el sistema presidencialista esta sujeto a la tentación continua de vulnerar esta separación.
Bajo el presidencialismo, el presidente –el Poder Ejecutivo– siendo elegido por el pueblo, tiende a asumir la función de gran legislador, mientras que el Congreso –el Poder Legislativo– deja de legislar y se dedica a juzgar causas (como, por ejemplo, decidir quién puede ser congresista o candidato a la Presidencia). El Poder Judicial, corrompido por dentro por facciones, termina siendo el premio gordo para quien lo pueda controlar, porque un poder judicial neutralizado políticamente no puede investigar casos de corrupción.
Existen varios indicios de que esta campaña electoral resultará en una legislatura más débil y un Poder Judicial más politizado:
Se han presentado tachas contra candidatos con la clara intención de utilizar abusivamente el Poder Judicial. Hay candidatos que buscan una curul con el propósito de conseguir la inmunidad parlamentaria. Si esta estrategia abusiva es exitosa resultara en un Congreso aún más desprestigiado.
A pesar de que el Poder Judicial no debe ser involucrado en la campaña, algunos candidatos amenazan con empezar sendas investigaciones contra sus adversarios tan pronto como lleguen al poder.
El tema de la no reelección parlamentaria, por más que sea debido al ‘clamor ciudadano’, va en contra de la idea de elecciones democráticas internas y podría conducir a un Congreso aún más débil.
Probablemente ningún Gobierno que resulte de este proceso electoral tendrá una mayoría en el Congreso y habrá necesidad de hacer coaliciones. Por eso, es preocupante escuchar a candidatos hablando de la posibilidad de cerrar el nuevo Congreso cuando recién está despegando el proceso electoral.
Es obvio que habría que mirar más allá del análisis institucional y del presidencialismo para ofrecer una explicación completa de la irrupción de los ‘outsiders’. La exclusión social explicaría el por qué, a pesar de que los indicadores macroeconómicos van muy bien, la población no percibe una mejoría. La informalidad explicaría cómo grandes segmentos de la población están fuera de los circuitos de comunicación y regulación estatal, y por consecuencia, no optan por candidatos que forman parte del país formal. La desigualdad y la heterogeneidad social también explicarían el atractivo por un candidato que reconoce lo nacional y popular. Además, un sistema presidencial puede funcionar perfectamente bien donde existe un Estado de derecho capaz de controlar la corrupción y abuso de poder: Costa Rica y Chile ofrecen ejemplos. Por esa razón es alentador que combatir la corrupción sea un tema central de la campaña.
Lamentablemente, los candidatos hasta ahora no han dado señales de una voluntad de hacer reformas. Los entornos cercanos de los candidatos más fuertes evocan amargos recuerdos de hechos pasados, como las visitas al SIN de representantes de los grupos económicos y financieros, de abusos de derechos humanos, como la masacre de El Frontón, y de la sumisa administración de justicia en el Ministerio Publico durante la época de Fujimori.
Para mejorar el funcionamiento del sistema político no se necesita abandonar el presidencialismo ni cambiar la Constitución. Una reforma judicial de fondo combinada con políticas sociales dedicadas a fortalecer el ejercicio de los derechos ciudadanos contribuiría a un marco institucional más estable y equitativo, de tal manera que los ‘outsiders’, y su estilo antisistema, no sean necesarios para que se escuche el clamor ciudadano.
(*) Artículo publicado por el diario El Comercio, sección Opinión, 8 de febrero del 2006
IDICE National Poll, February 3-5, 2006: Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala in Technical Tie for Second Place
Source: La República, 8 de febrero del 2006
Sample: 4,850 households. Margin of error +/- 4.5%
Ollanta Humala afirmó a Univisión haber usado el seudónimo de “Capitán Carlos”
Source: Perú 21, 8 de febrero del 2006
En una entrevista concedida el dia de ayer a la cadena de televisión norteamericana Univisión, el candidato presidencial por Unión por el Perú (UPP), Ollanta Humala, afirmó ayer haber usado en 1992 el seudónimo de “Capitán Carlos” cuando estuvo a cargo de la base militar Madre Mía en Huánuco, aunque negó ser el “Capitán Carlos Gonzales”, acusado de ser el responsable de delitos contra los DDHH.
Cuestionan que candidato de UPP apoye el aborto
Jorge Bazo Escudero
7 de febrero del 2006
Las estadísticas del 2005 indican que se realizaron en el país alrededor de 410 mil abortos, y las explosivas declaraciones de Daniel Abugattás, vocero de Unión por el Perú (UPP), sobre la legalización del aborto y de los matrimonios homosexuales en un supuesto gobierno de Ollanta Humala motivaron las más airadas respuestas de parte de miembros de la Iglesia Católica, como es el caso del Monseñor Luis Bambarén, quien consideró esta propuesta como peligrosa e inaceptable, acusando a los que la promueven de ser cómplices de asesinato y descalificando a la agrupación para liderar un país con mayoría católica, amenazando, en caso prospere esta propuesta, con realizar una contracampaña para que no voten por Ollanta Humala.
De similar manera se han manifestado el secretario general de la Conferencia Episcopal Peruana (CEP), Juan José Larrañeta y el obispo del Callao, Miguel Irizar, dejando en claro que la Iglesia está totalmente en contra de legalizar el aborto, porque según sus preceptos, no es la interrupción de una gestación sino que se trata del asesinato a un ser humano inocente.
Pero las aseveraciones de Abugattas no solo tuvieron eco en los sectores religiosos. Alan García, candidato a la presidencia por el APRA, marcó distancia con Unión por el Perú (UPP) asegurando que en un eventual gobierno no legalizaría el aborto basándose en la premisa de defender la vida humana. Sobre el matrimonio entre homosexuales, manifestó que este es realizable sólo entre hombre y mujer, y en todo caso, se puede hablar de un “pacto cívico” entre dos personas que pueden compartir sus derechos, impuestos y herencias como se realiza en países como Francia.
Así como hay manifestaciones en contra, también hay las que las apoyan, como es el caso de Zenaida Uribe, ex voleibolista nacional que postula al Congreso por UPP, quien basándose en su experiencia personal en Italia, país católico, explicó que solo basta una razón con base para que se realice esta intervención.
Ollanta Humala Faces Human Rights Accusations
Ollanta Humala faces at least three serious allegations of human rights abuse from the period in which he was commander in a military base in Madre Mia in 1992. Humala was under the command of the now fugitive Eduardo Bellido Mora, former military chief of the Political Front of the Alto Huallaga. Bellido, a close ally of Vladimiro Montesinos, faces charges of drug-trafficking. Montesinos received drug money from a trafficker known as El Vaticano who operated in the Alto Huallaga area. A new report in La Primera suggests Humala may also have taken protection money from drug traffickers.
Constitutional Tribunal to Review Military Justice Law
The Constitutional Tribunal, Peru’s supreme court in constitutional matters, has agreed to review the law of military justice to determine its constitutionality. Meanwhile, the National Council of Magistrates has already begun to nominate military justices.
César Hildebrandt Denounces Marriage of Economic Power and Media
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 7, 2006
César Hildebrandt did not resign from his television program, “Hoy Con Hildebrandt.” Alberto Cabello, the general manager of Frecuencia Latina, unexpectedly canceled the program. According to Hildebrandt, Cabello cited “incompatibility” between Hildebrandt’s program and the television station.
The incompatibility may stem from political bias. Much of the Peruvian media supports the candidacy of Lourdes Flores Nano, the leader of National Unity. “There is a perfect marriage between economic power and the press,” Hildebrandt stated in an interview with Magaly Medina on the television program “Magaly Te Ve.”
The Peruvian media have given extensive and sometimes uncritical coverage to Flores’ party, while the coverage of Ollanta Humala has been almost uniformly hostile. Hildebrandt has been an exception. He interviewed Humala recently and was tough in some of his questioning, but wound up the interview on a friendly note. Hildebrandt also gave air time to other spokespersons from the Humala camp and at one point stated publicly that he would not be part of a campaign orchestrated by the Banco de Credito to support Flores.
In an interview today on RPP, Hildebrandt indicated that he believes his interview with Humala was a factor in the decision to cancel his show.
One of Hildebrandt’s reporters, Nancy Morán, recently traveled to Madre Mía, in Huánuco. She found evidence that a recent report by Panorama on Humala was based on distortions and the manipulation of witnesses. Her report was not aired, and the video cassettes were removed from the television station by Hildebrandt himself. Hildebrandt rejected the claim, made by Humala spokesperson Daniel Abugattás, that he had evidence that National Unity had bought witnesses to implicate Humala in human rights abuses.
Hildebrandt makes the point that the media does no favor to Flores by manipulating information to make Humala out to look worse than he is. If he has committed serious human rights abuses, then independent journalism is needed to investigate and get to the bottom of the matter. Reporters like Cecilia Valenzuela and Rosa Maria Palacios, in their respective television programs, have recently had to bend over backwards to show that the allegations against Humala stand-up without the Panorama report.
The cancellation of Hildebrandt’s television program raises serious doubts about the credibility of journalism in Peru today. These doubts make it easy for false accusations to proliferate, leaving television viewers and newspaper readers confused as to what they can believe and what they cannot. The result is deeper and deeper cynicism about politics, the media, and the role of economic interests behind the scenes.
IMA Urban Poll, January 19-28, 2006: Lourdes Flores Maintains Lead
Source: La Republica, 7 de febrero del 2006
Sample: 6,351 individuals in 19 cities interviewed between January 19-28, 2006. Download file
The Outsider as an Effect of the System: Peru’s Ollanta Humala
By Maxwell A. Cameron, FOCALPOINT, January-February 2006, Volume 5, Number 1, pp. 1-2.
Download file
Peruvian Nationalist Party: “Electoral Fraud” Possible
According to the newspaper Gestion, the Nationalist Party of Peru will only have confidence in the results of the general elections in April if the European Community (EC) sends an observation mission. The leadership of the Nationalist Party does not trust the Organization of American States or the Peruvian National Election Board to guarantee a transparent election. An EC electoral mission approved Venezuelan legislative elections last year that were boycotted by the opposition. Ollanta Humala has warned of that electoral fraud could happen in Peru. He is concerned that it may be impossible for members of the armed forces to vote if they are stationed far from where they live and are registered to vote. The solution would be to have polling stations for voters in transit throughout the country. Peru does not have a tradition of advance polls.
Ollanta Humala: Beginning of the End?
Jorge Bazo E.
Translated and edited by Maxwell A. Cameron
6 February 2006
Versión en Español abajo
Ollanta Humala Tasso has had a tough weekend. The candidate for the presidency of the Unión por el Perú has suffered a series of accusations, threats of impending criminal investigations, problems within his political group, and allegations that one of his vice presidential candidates has a history of sexual harassment. Most damaging, however, are allegations of human rights abuses dating to Humala’s service in the counter-insurgency war in 1992. Humala denounces these allegations as part of a smear campaign by parties and the media, but they are beginning to look credible.
For the past two weeks, people in the area of Madre Mía in Alto Huallaga have denounced one “Captain Carlos” who they say committed violations of human rights in 1992. Humala has been identified as the captain in question, but this has not yet been confirmed by the Ministry of Defense.
There were at least three military commanders known by the nom de guerre “Capitán Carlos” in Alto Huallaga. The newspaper La República cites a confidential document that shows that Ollanta Humala was ‘Capitán Carlos Gonzales’, chief of the counter-insurgency base in Madre Mía en 1992. This was a time of intense fighting between the armed forces and the Shining Path, when many human rights violations occurred. It was also a time of well-documented links between the military intelligence and drug trafficking groups.
The denunciations against Humala were reinforced with new accusations this weekend. In one case a merchant, Zonia Luis Cristóbal, accused Humala of humiliating mistreatment of her family, the looting of her shop by troops at his command. Another accusation came from Teresa Ávila, sister-in-law of Benigno Sullca Castro and sister of Natividad Ávila Rivera, who were detained, tortured, and killed by soldiers in the Madre Mía base in June 1992.
In making sense of these grave allegations, it will be vitally important to distinguish legitimate accusations from media manipulation. A program on Channel 13 called “La Hora de Tingo” aired testimony by the local population from Madre Mía who were interviewed by ‘Panorama’, and they said that they had denounced various crimes and abuses but at no point did they indicate Humala as the author of these crimes, and that their words had been manipulated with the intention of damaging the candidate.
Respected human rights advocates are taking the allegations against Humala very seriously. Sofia Macher, from the Instituto de Defensa Legal (IDL), and a secretary of the Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos, Alejandro Silva, announced yesterday night on the television program “La Ventana Indiscreta” that this week they would be bringing before a judge evidence that Ollanta Humala was involved in 5 separate cases of disappearances and three more of torture.
In Trujillo, Ollanta Humala refused to respond directly to these accusations. He has neither confirmed nor defnied that he was captain Carlos, saying this is information for the Ministry of Defense to divulge. As Macher points out, it is odd to see a so-called “outsider” candidate hiding behind a powerful government ministry.
Humala has demanded proof be presented against him, and alleges that all the accusations are part of a dirty electoral campaign. He has committed himself to collaborating with any investigation that might be undertaken by the Public Ministry.
Humala has other problem. His cousin Liliana Humala has turned against him, as have other rank-and-file groups. In an attempt to restore order in his group, Humala asked all candidates to place themselves at the disposition of the leadership. Last night, Jorge Doménech, president of the electoral committee of the party, announced that the national leadership had decided to ratify Carlos Torres Caro as vice presidential candidate.
Meanwhile, strange events are occurring within the television station Frecuencia Latina. Last week Cesar Hildebrandt resigned his popular show “Hoy con Hildebrandt”, which has been replaced with (get this) the X Files. It is not known why Hildebrandt resigned, but he was vocal about refusing to engage in a dog-pile on Humala or to allow his program to be part of Lourdes Flores Nano election campaign (an accusation made against some of his competitors). Daniel Abugattas, leader of the Nationalist Party claims leaders of Unidad Nacional bought witnesses to accuse Humala of human rights abuses. He further accused majority shareholder Baruch Ivcher and producer Gilberto Hume of retaining video evidence to support this. Ivcher denies the allegation and has threatened Abugattas with a law suit. The journalistic director of Panamericana Televisión, Alejandro Guerrero, also called the allegation unfounded.
Ollanta Humala as “Captain Carlos”
There is increasingly credible evidence to suggest that Ollanta Humala was Captain Carlos in 1992 when he was in charge of a military base responsible for counter-subversive activity. A growing body of testimony converges to suggest that during that time Humala was responsible for human rights abuses. Sofia Macher appeared on television in the program Ventana Indiscreta with Cecilia Valenzuela this evening and confirmed that in her view the allegations against Humala are credible.
The other major story regarding Humala is that he has asked all candidates to congress as well as vice presidential candidates to be prepared to step aside should they be asked to do so as part of a process of reorganizing the UPP-PNP alliance. The disarray within the party requires extraordinary measures to introduce a modium of cohesion and discipline. Disagreement continues to surround the candidacy of Torres Caro who is facing mounting evidence of sexual harassment during the periods in which he taught law in two academic institutions.
Militarization of the Justice System
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 4, 2006
The new organic law of military justice militarizes Peru’s judicial system and undermines the rule of law. It has been challenged as unconstitutional by Fiscal de la Nacion Adelaida Bolivar, in part because It places the military justice system within the civilian judiciary in ways that cannot be overseen by the Fiscal de la Nacion. Under the new law it is possible that a military judge could be come the president of the supreme court.
The law undermines the autonomy of the judiciary since the new justices will be subject to the discipline and control of the military hierarchy, giving the military a say in what issues are dealt with in which courts. The military will have an obvious interest in ensuring that all cases dealing with human rights abuses will fall under the jurisdiction of military judges. The new military court system will be run by military judges, most of whom have questioned pasts. Consider the nominees:
– Hugo Pow Sang Sotelo signed a letter of loyalty to Vladimiro Montesinos and archived the Cantuta case in favor of Montesinos.
– Pedro Cabezas Cordoba has resisted investigations into corruption in the armed forces.
– Nelson Echaiz signed a letter of loyalty to Montesinos. He is involved in a case of drug trafficking.
– Percy Catacora S. was the judge who sentensed Gustavo Cesti, a retired military officer who should not have been tried in a military court.
– Demetrio Rojas Talla has argued that human rights cases should be dealt within military courts.
The militarization of the judiciary in Peru is especially disturbing in light of the fact that one of the leading candidates in the 2006 election, Ollanta Humala, has been accused of human rights crimes. The clarification of such allegations is likely to be hindered by military control over the judicial branch of government, especially if the military is successful in asserting jurisdiction over human rights crimes. The fox is in the henhouse.
Susana Villarán in Flag-Washing Ceremony
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 3, 2006
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Susana Villarán, presidential candidate for Concertación Descentralista, participated in a symbolic flag-washing ceremony to express opposition to a new law of military justice, Law No. 28665. The law, which was promulgated last month, creates a parallel system of military justice along side the civil judiciary. The ceremony was held shortly after noon in front of the National Magistrates Council in the 35 hundred block of the Paseo de la República in San Isidro.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
A group of supporters were on hand with buckets of soap, water, and flags. Among those present were congressional candidates Fabricio Orozco, Roberto Sánchez, Manuel Dammert, Oscar Badillo, and José Carlos Vera. When Villarán arrived, the crowd chanted slogans like “Susana is decent, Susana is brave” or “Susana, for sure, be tough with the mafia” (Susana, segura, a la mafia dale dura).
Photo: M.A. Cameron
I asked one of Villarán’s supporters why the law had been passed, and why now? He said the law was introduced and passed in the legislature at this time because, for the first time ever, the members of the armed forces and the police can vote. Political parties like the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA), National Unity (UN) and the Independent Moralizing Front (FIM) all voted in favor of this law in order to curry favor with the military voters. The bill, sponsored by Luis Iberico of the FIM, was passed into law very quickly, and with little debate, in December of last year. Arguing that it opens the way to more impunity, and goes against the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the spokesperson for Concertación Decentralista said the law constitutes a “golpe de estado” (or coup) against the judicial branch of government.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
The purpose of the flag washing was to bring pressure to bear upon the National Magistrates Council to refuse to name justices to the military courts until a constitutional challenge to the law of military justice is heard in the Constitutional Tribunal, Peru’s equivalent of a supreme court for constitutional matters. The nation’s top lawyer, or Fiscal de la Nación (often translated inaccurately as Attorney General, but in fact the office of Fiscal de la Nación is fully autonomous and responsible for upholding the rule of law in the agencies of government), Adelaida Bolívar has challenged the constitutionality of the law.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
After washing the flag, Villarán held a media scrum in which she praised Bolívar as a brave supporter of democracy, and denounced the law of military justice, saying it was approved “between the rooster and midnight.” She said that symbolically washing the flag evokes the “healthiest tradition of the defense of democracy.” In 2000, at the end of the Fujimori regime, flag-washing ceremonies were held in front of the palace of government. The event today was meant as a reminder of the dark days of that period. Villarán asked what kind of democracy Peruvians want.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
A flier was circulated that called for the defense of the rule of law, democracy and the institutionality of the armed forces. The key points in the flier were:
– The law of military justice is a violation of the rule of law because it creates a system of justice parallel to the judiciary and public ministry.
– It creates a new layer of bureaucracy, with 176 new judges who are active duty military officers and hence subject to hierarchy, discipline, and obedience to superiors.
– It creates a competition over competence in the area of human rights law.
– It opens the door to a militaristic regime and weakens civil liberties.
– All presidential candidates should state their position with respect to this law.
– No justices should be appointed until the constitutionality of the law is resolved.
– Laws, like the recently proposed amnesty, that weaken the rule of law hurt the military and the nation alike.
– The armed forces should be modernized and professionalized.
How likely is military justice to emerge as a campaign issue? Leaving aside members of the armed forces, who have an obvious interest in the topic, most Peruvians are unlikely to care a good deal. The parties that support this law are the front-runners in the campaign, while Concertación Descentralista is in the single digits in opinion polls. One of Villarán’s supporters acknowledged that many Peruvians are more concerned about getting bread and butter on the table than they are with arcane issues of military justice, but he argued that it is important to get the issue on the agenda of other candidates and make this one of the issues voters think about when going to the polls.
Military courts were key pillars of the militaristic political regime created by former President Alberto Fujimori. These courts lacked the most rudimentary elements of due process, often refusing to accept writs of habeas corpus issued by civilian judges. They also claimed jurisdiction over civilians, and treated former military officers in retirement as if they were still part of the chain of command. Many of the judges who are now being considered for appointment to the military courts were defenders of Montesinos, Fujimori’s corrupt intelligence chief. Some signed letters of subjection to Montesinos, or were involved in the cover-up of Montesinos’ role in the Cantuta massacre of 1992. One ordered the capture of General Rodolfo Robles after he blew the whistle on human rights abuses by the high command.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Susel Paredes, defensora de los derechos de las minorías sexuales
Source: Perú 21, 3 de febrero del 2006
El diario Perú 21 conversó con la ex actriz de telenovelas y ahora abogada defensora de los DDHH en la ONG feminista Flora Tristán, Susel Paredes, quien postula como candidata al Congreso por el Partido Socialista. Entre sus propuestas está la defensa de los derechos de las minorías sexuales, para lo cual tuvo que hacer pública su orientación sexual.