Archive for January, 2006
Radical Humala Loses Lead in Peru Polls
By Hal Weitzman
Financial Times
January 31, 2006
Download file
El Chisme es más importante que el Plan de Gobierno
Dejando de lado sus planes de gobierno, algunos partidos están apostando por los ataques personales y denuncias sin fundamento. El “chisme” es asunto de todos los días y, Jorge Del Castillo del Apra, es uno de los abanderados. La guerra sucia está desfigurando esta campaña electoral y parece ser que el Pacto Ético Electoral que suscribieron los partidos a iniciativa del Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE), será letra muerta. Los diarios Peru 21 y El Comercio se centraron en este importante tema.
Alan García: Apra está segundo en las encuestas
El candidato a la presidencia por el Apra dice tener 11 puntos más de lo que le dan encuestas, que corresponderían a un voto escondido, con lo que se colocaría en el segundo lugar de la intención del electorado.
¿Por qué ha descendido Ollanta Humala en las encuestas?
Source: La República, 31 de enero del 2006
Tras dos semanas encumbrado en el primer lugar de diversas encuestas de opinión, se ha producido un estancamiento y caída en la candidatura de Ollanta Humala por diversos motivos: su vinculación con Hugo Chávez, una serie de denuncias de abusos contra los DDHH y las pugnas en su partido por la lista parlamentaria.
Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos recoge nuevas denuncias contra el “Capitán Carlos”
Foja de Servicios de Ollanta Moisés Humala Tasso
Source: La República, 31 de enero del 2006
Tras emitirse en programas dominicales de televisión más acusaciones de familiares de las víctimas del “Capitán Carlos” y Ollanta Humala negar haber “cometido delitos de lesa humanidad durante la guerra antisubversiva”, atribuyendo esto a una guerra sucia que pretende desacreditarlo; la Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos recogió la versión de cinco personas que ratifican que esta persona sería él cuando operaba en la base militar de Madre Mía en 1992 con el apellido “Gonzales”.
ONPE utilizará dos cédulas de sufragio
En un hecho inédito y en vista al número record de candidatos a la Presidencia (23 en total), la ONPE ha diseñado dos cédulas de sufragio para evitar confusiones en las próximas elecciones del 9 de abril. En una se elegirá al presidente de la República y sus vicepresidentes y la segunda será para los candidatos al Congreso y el Parlamento Andino.
Entrevista de El Clarín con Ollanta Humala
El Diario El Clarín de Argentina publicó este lunes una entrevista realizada a Ollanta Humala Tasso, quien se definió a sí mismo como “un revolucionario”, que no es “un hombre peligroso” ni “antichileno”.
APOYO y Analistas y Consultores: Lourdes Flores en el primer lugar y tendencia al descenso de Ollanta Humala
Source: La República, 30 de enero del 2006
Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado: 1,600 personas en 30 provincias de todo el país.
Analistas & Consultores: 2,000 personas en 26 ciudades del país.
Los programas periodísticos “Cuarto Poder” de América TV y “La ventana indiscreta” de Frecuencia Latina difundieron dos encuestas a nivel nacional ratificando a Lourdes Flores Nano, candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), como primera en la intención de voto con resultados muy similares. En la encuesta de Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado alcanzó el 30% mientras que en la de Analistas & Consultores obtuvo 30.9%.
Lourdes Flores: Horacio Cánepa fue declarado inocente
Horacio Cánepa Torre fue uno de los que organizó el fraude electoral del denominado “Huanucazo” de 1995 que favoreció a Alberto Fujimori, y hoy es candidato al Congreso por Unidad Nacional en Huánuco.
Continúan las acusaciones contra el “Capitán Carlos”
Programas dominicales Panorama de Panamericana Televisión y Reporte Semanal de Frecuencia Latina, presentaron más acusaciones de los familiares de las víctimas del “Capitán Carlos”, autor de violaciones a los DDHH cuando ocupó la jefatura de la base militar de Madre Mía. Sostienen que él y Ollanta Humala son la misma persona.
Arturo Woodman sería denunciado por presunta colusión
Source: Arturo Pérez. La República, 30 de enero del 2006.
Arturo Woodman, empresario y actual candidato a la primera vicepresidencia de la plancha de Lourdes Flores Nano, es investigado por la fiscal Juana Meza Peña bajo la sospecha de ser cómplice del delito de colusión en el caso de la concesión del puerto Matarani al Grupo Romero, organización para la que trabajaba mientras al mismo tiempo actuaba como funcionario público del gobierno de Alberto Fujimori.
Humala: They want to destroy my candidacy
Speaking in Puno, Ollanta Humala reiterated his proposal for the industrialization of coca production and lashed out against his aversaries who, he said, want to destroy his candidacy.
Un Lobo en Peru provides an English summary of the content of the article. Thanks!
Valentin Paniagua on the Campaign Trail
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 29, 2006
Photo: M.A. Cameron
On Saturday, January 28, Valentín Paniagua visited three popular markets in the district of San Martín de Porres. San Martín de Porres is one of the older working class districts of Lima. A notice in La Republica had announced that the candidate for the Frente de Centro, who served as interim president of Peru in 2000-2001, would be lunching in a popular kitchen on the 13 hundred block of Avenida Perú. We arrived a little early and had the chance to speak with local party organizers. As we congregated at one of the market entrances, we were approached by Oscar Benavides, former president of the National Association of District Mayors of Peru, and the number 4 candidate on the list of aspirants to congress for the Frente de Centro. Benavides emphasized that the campaign has just begun, and he expressed optimism in spite of recent polls placing Paniagua in a distant 4th place position with only 7 percent of the popular vote. The Frente de Centro does not buy polls, offered Benavides in explanation.
Organizers pass out leaflets
Photo: M. A. Cameron
A yellow station-wagon announced over a megaphone that Paniagua would shortly arrive, calling him a candidate of “proven integrity.” When he did arrive, Paniagua was in the accompany of congressional candidate Carlos Valenzuela (numbers 11 on the Frente de Centro list), and was greeted enthusiastically with cheers of “Valentín Presidente!” Others muttered less scripted comments under their breath about how short he was, or how bald. Paniagua moved energetically through the market, seeming to take great pleasure shaking hands and stopping to talk. At one point a market woman—who earlier had told us we were at the right place when we asked whether Paniagua was coming through—offered him flowers. Because the campaign was running behind time, Paniagua did not stop to have lunch but got back in his car, a modest black Mazda, and headed off for Ate-Vitarte. After he left we spoke briefly with Meche Mendoza, also candidate for congress (number 17 on the list) on Paniagua’s slate.
Paniagua receives flowers
Photo: M. A. Cameron
The visit to the popular kitchen was not unlike the walk through Independencia with Lourdes Flores, which we described last weekend. In both cases, the candidates attempted to meet voters face-to-face. Flores had a larger entourage (she had a bus to bring in her supporters), and there was much more of a media and police presence as befits the front-runner. Indeed, there was no media presence that we could observe during Paniagua’s brief stop. There was, however, more evidence of local organization. Benavides, for example, is from Somos Peru, which undoubtedly provides an important organizational base for the Frente de Centro. The offer of flowers to the candidates, obviously not a spontaneous gesture, provided some indication of a link to the folk in the marketplace. In addition to the congressional candidates, there were other grassroots organizers around, most of whom did not look quite as uncomfortable or out of place as the middle class university students who accompanied Flores.
Meche Mendoza holds up her banner
Photo: M. A. Cameron
The contrasts and comparisons between the Flores and Paniagua campaigns help highlight the similarities and differences between the two major parties behind the respective leaders—the Popular Christian Party (PPC) and Popular Action (AP). These two parties are often seen as very similar, and indeed they have governed together. Historically, the PPC has a clear right-of-center orientation and strong links to business, while AP has never seen itself as a right-wing party and does not consider itself to be a political vehicle of the entrepreneurial elite.
To be sure, Flores offers a more moderate face than the traditional image of the PPC. Her conservatism reflects an awareness that neoliberal policies failed to create shared prosperity and, therefore, the state must assume a more vigorous social policy role to in the fight against poverty. As a result, the differences between her and Paniagua seem relatively small and this has encouraged some strategists to argue that Paniagua should have joined the National Unity slate with Flores. In an interview earlier this week, Cesar Hildebrandt suggested that a vote for Paniagua might be a “wasted vote” since the main contest would seem to be Flores vs. Humala. Paniagua insisted that he represents a distinct option and continues to have a viable candidacy: “I have the fibre to fight,” he said. Hildebrandt congratulated Paniagua for finally saying something purely electoral.
Whether Paniagua’s candidacy can catch fire with the voters is doubtful if the polls are to be believed. But since the polls are imperfect, it never hurts to talk with people in the streets. After Paniagua left the market in San Martín de Porres, we hung around for a while talking to the vendors. We heard three contrasting views. The first was enthusiastically supportive. Paniagua is a man of experience and honesty, said one. “He could be the hope.” Another launched into a very articulate and angry diatribe against politicians in general and insisted that the only way for people like her to get ahead was through hard work rather than depositing hope in politicians. “Looks at where you are,” she said, “and look at me.” The difference, she said, was “money, power, and color.” (Ouch! Field work can hurt). A third market woman said Peru needs a strong leader, “someone with balls,” she said, with apologies for the strong words. We were better off under Fujimori than Toledo. I was left with the impression that Paniagua’s visit was welcomed, and that he was greeted respectfully, but that this does not necessarily translate into votes.
While the Paniagua campaign struggles to ignite enthusiasm among the voters, there are other people working behind the scenes to stop the candidate in his tracks. Yesterday, most of the papers carried a story about an allegation by Jorge del Castillo of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA). He claimed that a major financial entity (he did not explicitly say the Romero group, but who else would it be?) had offered money to Jaime Salinas, a small candidate with less that 2 percent support in the polls, to retire his candidacy in order to help Flores. According to Del Castillo, who offered no evidence except an unnamed “credible source,” Flores had met with Salinas to discuss this, and Salinas was preparing to announce his withdrawal from the race imminently, in time to switch his candidacy to the congress. The Flores camp immediately rejected Del Castillo’s allegations and threatened to drag him before the electoral authorities.
Today, however, Víctor Andrés García Belaúnde, the president of Popular Action, said that something similar had happened to him and that he was not surprised to hear that certain members of the business community might be looking for ways of eliminating some of the smaller campaigns. He claimed to have been invited to lunch by a group of business people “close to Arturo Woodman and the Romero group.” He accepted the invitation “to see if I could get something, proposing the ideas of Valentín Paniagua, and everything turned out the other way around: it was they who wanted to convince Paniagua to pull out of the election race.” The argument was that the race between Flores and Humala was close, and this was a threat to democracy. García Belaúnde said he told them the idea was absurd and stupid, and he did not even mention it to Paniagua. For his part, Paniagua rejected the idea with the joke: “I am not good merchandise.”
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Parliamentary Impunity
Rosa Maria Palacios has written a thoughtful critical essay on parliamentary immunity. Recent reports of criminal proceedings against candidates would be less disturbing were it not for the fact that, once elected, a member of congress has immunity from prosecution. In practice, the congress rarely lifts parliamentary immunity.
Barometro National Pre-electoral, January 20-22, 2006: Lourdes Flores Maintains National Lead (clearly in Lima and Urban Areas). Ollanta Humala Leads in Rural areas
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima, Estudio 297, Barometro Nacional Pre-electoral Download file
Sample: 2,003 individuals in urban and rural areas in 20 regions, 34 provinces y 133 districts. Sample represents 69.79% of the electoral population.
PUCP Lima & Callao Poll, January 20-21, 2006 – Part II
Source: La República, 28 de enero del 2006
Fernando Tuesta and Manuel Saavedra Explain Disparities among CPI and PUCP Polls results
Compañía Smartmatic: Cumplimos con los requisitos de la ONPE
Tras declarar la ONPE desierto el concurso para implementar el voto electrónico en las elecciones del 9 de abril porque ninguno de los postores subsanaron sus observaciones, la compañía Smatmatic expresó su malestar porque aseguran haber cumplido con los requisitos técnicos exigidos. Esta compañía fue fue vinculada por el programa televisivo “La Ventana Indiscreta” con el régimen del presidente venezolano Hugo Chávez.
Jorge Del Castillo denuncia ventas de candidatura a favor de Lourdes Flores Nano
El secretario general del Apra, Jorge del Castillo, denunció a través de RPP, que medios financieros cercanos a Lourdes Flores Nano habrían ofrecido dinero a Jaime Salinas, líder de Justicia Nacional, a cambio de que retire su candidatura. No es la primera vez que lanza este tipo de acusaciones. En enero del 2001aseguró que Fernando Olivera, candidato por el Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM), renunciaría a su postulación presidencial para favorecer a Lourdes Flores apostando “una caja de cerveza”, pero Olivera lo desmintió manteniendo su candidatura.
Contradictions among Polls
Serious doubts are being raised about the validity of polls in this election campaign. A recent poll by the Catholic University placed Lourdes Flores at 38 percent in Lima and Callao. This is a level of support significantly higher than what other polls have found. Polls have a checkered history in Peru, in part because the deep cleaveages in Peruvian society exacerbate the different results that are obtained according to who is polled, where and how they are polled, who asks the questions, how the questions are framed, and what the respondent thinks the pollster wants to hear. Nonetheless, the high level of support for Flores in Lima seems intuitive, in part because Flores seems to have become a sort of default option for many voters.
An interesting editorial by Mirko Lauer in La Republica today picks up this theme. He suggests that Flores has benefited from a migration of voters from other candidates as they falter. Her challenge is to retain these votes over the rest of the campaign.
Source: La Republica, January 27, 2006
ONPE: Rejects Electronic Voting System
By means of a press release, the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (National Office of Electoral Processes, or ONPE) informed the public that due to technical problems the system of electronic voting would not be implemented in the elections on April 9. Lloyd Axworthy is said to have raised the issue with President Toledo, who is keen to cooperate with the OAS electoral observation mission.
The Peruvian Central Bank in the Eye of a Storm
Fabiola Bazo
January 26, 2006
The Peruvian Central Bank (Banco Central de Reserva, BCR) and members of its board have been in the eye of a storm this last week. The BCR has intervened aggressively in the currency exchange market to reduce volatility. The BCR sold dollar reserves in what some analysts have called a preventive measure to stop “a sudden attack to the nuevo sol.” On January 12, Kurt Burneo, President of the National Bank and member of the Board of the BCR, argued that banks and Pension funds (AFPs) were speculating to generate fear among the general public. As a response, the BCR bought nuevos soles to avoid a currency collapse. The scale of the intervention was unprecedented.
On January 17, critics of the BCR –including the Instituto Peruano de Economía (IPE), business groups, pension funds, and banks– answered back stating that the central bank was using volatility as an excuse to intervene, generating an artificially peaceful environment for investors, when the nominal policy of the central bank is to let the currency float. Aggressive intervention by the BCR, acording to critics, indirectly benefits presidential hopeful Ollanta Humala. In this view, the BCR should have let the Peruvian currency fall, thereby demonstrating the potentially negative impact on the economy if Ollanta Humala is elected. Burneo has stated the BCR will take legal action against those who have criticized the measures taken by the central bank to maintain economic stability and reduce the electoral noise.
What is striking about this episode is the lobbying by a range of economic agents seeking to influence monetary policy and politicize the decisions of the central bank.
Carlos Tapia on Ollanta Humala’s Undemocratic Values
Carlos Tapia is a respected expert on counter-insurgency issues, and he served on the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission. In this essay he suggests that Humala’s conception of politics is informed by the logic of internal conflict. Accordingly, elections are battles, and competitors are enemies.
250,000 citizens without birth certificates will not vote on April 9th
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 26, 2006
It would cost $3.6 million to register 250,000 Peruvians–more than all the voters in Villa El Salvador–who live in remote areas of the country and cannot vote because they do not have birth certificates. Yet the executive has not provided the small amount of money necessary for these citizens to be enfranchized. They are poor folk, far from the capital, and they simply don’t matter to Peru’s urban political elite. At the same time, the election authorities are toying with the idea of spending over 50 million soles so that half a million voters in Callao can have the luxury of voting electronically. This is yet another graphic reminder of the impact of inequality on the elections, and the indifference of the state with respect to the rural poor.
PUCP Lima & Callao Poll, January 20-21, 2006: Lourdes Flores in Clear Lead with 38%
Source: La República, 26 de enero del 2006
En el segundo sondeo realizado por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP) sobre la intención de voto, la candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores, aparece con el 38% de intención de votos, mientras que Ollanta Humala con solo el 16%.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 745 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años en 31 distritos de Lima Metropolitana y Callao, con un error y nivel de confianza estimados de +3,58%, un nivel de confianza del 95% y 50-50% de heterogeneidad bajo el supuesto de muestreo aleatorio simple.
CPI National Poll, January 21-24, 2006: Lourdes Flores Nano 28.8%
La encuesta de la Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercados y Opinión Pública (CPI) fue realizada entre el 21 y el 24 de enero en 50 provincias sobre un universo de 1,950 entrevistados.
Fernando Tuesta on PUCP Latest Poll
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich on Humala’ Stagnation in Lima
Rafael Belaunde Stays as Peru Posible’s Presidential Candidate
Source: El Comercio, 26 de enero del 2006.
El Comité Ejecutivo Nacional de Perú Posible retiró de su lista para el Parlamento Andino a Gerardo Saavedra. Rafael Belaúnde aceptó la inclusión de José León y Doris Sánchez por Lima y anunció que seguirá en la campaña electoral como candidato presidencial.
Lloyd Axworthy in Lima to Prepare OAS Electoral Observation Mission
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 25, 2006
Lloyd Axworthy is in Lima preparing the groundwork for an electoral observation mission of the Organization of American States (OAS). He is meeting with President Alejandro Toledo, Chancellor Oscar Maurtua, and election officials from the JNE, ONPE, and Reniec, among others. Axworthy is the former Canadian minister of foreign affairs who led a high-level mission to Peru in the aftermath of the problematic elections of 2000. His involvement as an observer of the 2006 elections has symbolic importance because of the key role that he, in conjunction with former Secretary General Cesar Gaviria and the OAS, played in contributing to the transition to democracy in 2000.
The choice of Axworthy to head the mission suggests the possibility that the OAS, now under the leadership of Secretary General José Miguel Insulza, will create an election observation process that that, in addition to ensuring that votes are counted accurately, focuses attention on the agenda for reinforcing democracy that came out of the involvement of the international community in the 2000 election. Unlike in 2000, when the elections failed to meet internationally accepted standards of freedom and fairness, however, the elections this year are likely to be beset by more technical problems. This will be the first election in which members of the armed forces can vote, for example, and the participation of soldiers will create logistical issues. There is also a proposal for electronic voting in Callao, which Cecilia Valenzuela has sharply criticized in the television program Ventana Indiscreta. Finally, 250,000 voters are disenfranchized because they do not have birth certificates and over a million more voters, many of them elderly, cannot vote because they do not have a National Identity Document. The total size of the electorate is 16.5 million.
Arturo Woodman Disagrees with Lourdes Flores Nano over Chilean Participation in Peruvian Ports
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 25, 2006
Arturo Woodman, vice presidential candidate for Unidad Nacional (UN), has openly disagreed with UN presidential candidate Lourdes Flores Nano concerning Chilean investments in Peruvian ports. While Flores has opposed Chilean involvement, Woodman says he is open to capital from any source. Woodman’s remarks not only undercut Flores Nano, they also reopen questions about Woodman’s own involvement in the ports.
Jorge Paredes Romero provides superb background information on Arturo Woodman and his role in the privatization of the Matarani port in his commentary “Nuestra Sociedad Convulsionada.”
Among other things, Paredes Romero alludes to the Final Report of the Investigative Commission on Economic and Financial Crimes Committed between 1990-2001, released in June 2002, which found indications of influence trafficking in the privatization of the port of Matarani:
“These indications are based on meetings held between Mr. Dionisio Romero and Vladimiro Montesinos, which occurred on as many as five occasions according to his own statement, although there are only two videos of them. At least three of these meetings in 1998 and 1999 coincided temporally with the granting of Matarani. Moreover, according to Romero’s own statement, it is known that the meetings were propitiated by Engineer Arturo Woodman, member of the Board of Maritime Transports (S.A.), a firm of the Romero Group, who was involved in numerous offices in the previous government, especially CEPRI Tierras and CEPRI Azucareras. The privatization was conducted by Commander José Dellepiani Maza, who was placed in the presidency of ENAPU after Vladimiro Montesinos decided to replace him in the Audit Commission of the Judiciary.”
As we have reported before, insiders in Unidad Nacional now recognize that it was an error to appoint Woodman. The latest dispute only deepens this impression.
PUCP Lima & Callao Poll, January 2006: Lourdes Flores in Clear Lead with 38%
En el segundo sondeo realizado por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP) sobre la intención de voto, la candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores, aparece con el 38% de intención de votos, mientras que Ollanta Humala con solo el 16%.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 745 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años en 31 distritos de Lima Metropolitana y Callao, con un error y nivel de confianza estimados de +3,58%, un nivel de confianza del 95% y 50-50% de heterogeneidad bajo el supuesto de muestreo aleatorio simple.
José Antonio García Belaunde on Michelle Bachelet and Evo Morales
Conecta National Poll – January 12-14, 2006: Perceptions on Nationalism
Conecta Asociados SAC, Informe Opinión Enero 2006. Survey focuses on perceptions on nationalism, democracy and expectations of political change.
Sample: 1,394 individuals in Metropolitan Lima, Callao and 12 cities Download file
Santiago Pedraglio on Anti-Humalismo
Unidad Nacional: Only Four Legislators will Go for Re-election
En conferencia de prensa, la candidata presidencial de Unidad Nacional, Lourdes Flores Nano, informó que solo cuatro de sus actuales legisladores buscarán su reelección en las próximas elecciones: Rosa Florián, Emma Vargas, Fabiola Morales e Hildebrando Tapia. El legislador Rafael Rey Rey encabezará la lista de candidatos al Parlamento Andino. Rafael Rey no va a la reelección y encabezará lista al Parlamento Andino
Susana Villarán vs. Ollanta Humala
En declaraciones al diario Correo y, tras manifestar su indignación por la agresión que sufriera la semana pasada por militantes y simpatizantes del Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP) en un mercado de Ate-Vitarte, la candidata presidencial de la alianza Concertación Descentralista (CD), Susana Villarán, retó públicamente a su lider Ollanta Humala a un debate de plan de gobierno tras calificarlo de “machista”.
Carmen Rosa Balbi on Business Groups and Peruvian Elections (Part 2)
En su primer análisis en el diario La República, Carmen Rosa Balbi comentó sobre las elecciones y los grupos de poder económico; en esta segunda parte discute las Elecciones y Constitución como Contrato Social.
World Bank Survey: Peru Invests Little in Education
Source: El Comercio, 25 de enero del 2006
PNP lanza últimatum para recomposición de lista parlamentaria
Se agudiza la crisis al interior del Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP). En declaraciones a la radioemisora CPN, los militantes de las bases provinciales lanzaron hoy un ultimátum a Ollanta Humala para que recomponga la lista de candidatos al Congreso y tome “en cuenta a los miembros de su partido”. El plazo otorgado su líder y candidato a la presidencia vence mañana miércoles 25, día en el que se radicalizarán las acciones de protesta como las tomas de locales y movilizaciones a nivel nacional y de no llegar a un acuerdo, inscribirán una lista propia ante el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE).
The Unreconstructed Fujimorismo of Martha Chávez
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 24, 2006
Martha Chávez, presidential candidate for Alianza por el Futuro, met this morning with the Association of the Foreign Press in Peru (Asociación de Prensa Extranjera en el Perú). Following a brief exposition, she held a conversation with about a dozen journalists in which she spoke about her candidacy, the role of Alberto Fujimori in the campaign, and the challenges facing any future government she might lead.
Las “Hojas de Vida” no sirven para fiscalizar a los candidatos
Source: La República, 24 de enero del 2006. Por Carolina Martín.
Tras anexar el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones en su página web las primeras hojas de vida de las planchas presidenciales de seis agrupaciones políticas: Avanza País, Resurgimiento Peruano, Restauración Nacional, el Partido Socialista, el APRA y el Partido Renacimiento Andino; ha quedado demostrado que los datos que consignan las siete páginas que todo candidato debe presentar al JNE cuando se inscribe como tal, son insuficientes para formar en el elector un completo juico sobre el candidato a la presidencia de la república.
Ollanta Humala reitera en que hay campaña en su contra
Tras la denuncia periodística emitida el día domingo 21 pasado por el programa “Panorama” sobre su supuesta participación en la violación de derechos humanos como jefe de una patrulla militar en la base militar de Madre Mía, en San Martín, nuevamente el candidato a presidencia Ollanta Humala denunció que se ha desatado otra campaña de desprestigio en su contra, asegurando que “es parte de la campaña que algunos medios” han iniciado contra su candidatura y que está dispuesto a someterse a cualquier investigación para que se compruebe que no participó en la ejecución de pobladores de la zona en 1992 bajo el seudónimo del “Capitán Carlos”.
Ollanta Humala – Background and Analysis
For a good analysis and more background information on Ollanta Humala, see http://wolfylima.blogspot.com/ and scroll down to January 18, Ollanta Humala – The Big Unknown.
Both Flores and Garcia would close congress
So poor is the image of congress that two of the front-running candidates have said they would not hesitate to dissolve the congress and call new congressional elections in the event that their programs were rejected due to a minority situation. This would be done democratically, and according to the constitution, which stipulates (article 134) that the executive has the power to dissolve congress after two motions of censure against the cabinet.
Humala Implicated in Human Rights Abuses
According to a report aired on the television program Panorama, Ollanta Humala was a military officer in charge of a base in Madre Mía, located between the departments of San Martín and Tingo María, in 1992 when human rights crimes were committed against the local population.
UPDATE: In Hoy con Hildebrandt on January 24, Humala denied any involvement in human rights abuses. Asked whether he was Capitan “Carlos,” he told Hildebrandt to speak with the Ministry of Defense.
Assassination Plot Exposed as Farse
It now appears the entire plot to assassinate the secretary general of the Union Por el Peru was a total farse. The supposed assassin has a history of offering information in exchange for money. This would explain why Yorges was released by the police so quickly, and his giddy attitude throughout the entire episode.
Doubts about Humala´s Vice Presidential Candidate Torres Caro
La Primera has carried a couple of stories on the involvement of Carlos Torres Caro, candidate for vice president in the Humala slate, in the cover-up of election fraud in 1995, known as the Huanucazo. At the time, Torres Caro was working for the Public Ministry, which was run by Blanca Nelida Colan. She was a key ally of Vladimiro Montesinos, the de facto head of the National Intelligence Service. Torres Caro has threatened La Primera with a lawsuit.
[UPDATE: In Hoy con Hildebrandt on January 24, Humala denied that Torres Caro was in any way involved in the Huanucazo. We can find no independent support for the allegation either on the Internet or from with people involved. If anyone has information, we welcome it. –M.A.C. 25.1.06]
Today La Republica reports that Torres Caro offered his legal advice to Genaro Delgado Parker when the mediate magnate was in trouble with the law due to incriminating evidence found on Vladivideos (videos from the archive of the National Intelligence Service, taped by Vladimiro Montesinos). The problem is that at the time Torres Caro was still working for the Public Ministry.
The implication of this is that Torres Caro was a member of the judicial mafia that controlled the Public Ministry under Fujimori and he used his post to peddle influence even after Fujimori and Montesinos fell from power.
Survey by Peruana de Opinión Pública (POP): Lourdes Flores Nano first with 30%
Another polls places Lourdes Flores Nano ahead with 30 percent of the vote, followed by Ollanta Humala with 25 percent. The highest negative ratings are for Alan Garcia (32 percent), followed by Humala (28 percent) and Fernando Olivera (16 percent). Asked who they trust, another way of getting at voter intentions, voters chose Flores (30 percent), Humala (18 percent), Paniagua (11 percent) and Garcia (10 percent).
Según un sondeo a nivel nacional de Peruana de Opinión Pública (POP), la líder de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores Nano, recuperó terreno en las preferencias y se ubicó nuevamente en el primer lugar con un 30% de la intención de voto, seguida de Ollanta Humala con un 25%.
Alan García Pérez, del partido aprista, encabeza el llamado “antivoto” con el 32%, seguido por Humala con el 28% y Fernando Olivera con el 16%; mientras que entre los personajes con mayor confianza de la población, Flores Nano ocupa nuevamente el primer lugar con el 30%, Humala con el 18%, Valentín Paniagua con el 11% y García con el 10%.
Many young voters are apathetic about politics
There are approximately 7 million young voters (between 18 and 35) in this election, and most of them have not yet decided how they will vote. Youth represent about 42 percent of the electorate, but many young voters appear to be turned off politics. Martin Tanaka notes that youth spontaneously participated in the struggle against Fujimori at the end of the 1990s but found no organization to sustain their involvement.
Un informe especial del diario La República sobre los jóvenes indecisos políticos en el país arrojó interesantes conclusiones: A menos de tres meses de las elecciones generales, casi 7 millones de peruanos entre los 18 y 35 años aún no definen su candidato y representan el 42,1% de votantes, casi la mitad. Frustrados, sienten que ningún candidato los representa y que los partidos políticos no se preocupan por ellos, desmotivándolos por participar en la política a pesar de que su participación será decisiva para definir los próximos comicios del 6 de abril .