With a loss finally under my belt it’s time to rethink and reorganize my strategy for this trading game. Well, not really. I will still continue to keep it simple but I plan on being more diligent on what positions I take and when I close them. Also, I will do more research on who the major players are and keep a closer eye on what’s going on domestically in these countries with regards to weather and possible policy changes.
I have once again taken long positions on wheat. Why? The USDA crop report indicated lower yields from last year (http://www.insidefutures.com/article/796199/Wheat%20Prices%20Seem%20Strongest%20of%20the%20Grains.html). Combined with the dry spell in most wheat producing nations and the speculation of Russia possibly banning wheat exports (http://www.brecorder.com/agriculture-a-allied/183/1243221/) prices of wheat will most likely increase (with demand the same, lower yields, less supply, higher prices).
If weather conditions do not improve and if Russia does indeed ban wheat exports, expect prices to rise indeed.