Week 4 Part 2 – Now What?

With my 3 trades for Dec wheat still long, I still expect prices to rise somewhat from droughts in EU and in Australia. I tried to add another trade for Mar13 wheat going long (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/12/wheat-corn-stocks-fall-2013-drought?newsfeed=true) with speculation that wheat stocks are going to fall in 2013. However, the trade I put on didn’t get in right away (again) and is still pending so that cannot be good for my futures trading.

If certain reports are correct though, that world stocks didn’t fall as forecasted lowering US wheat demand (http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/wheat/wheat-falls-on-dem-concerns_11-ar26879), I might just offset this trade come Monday and try to minimize my losses on the other 3 trades. If the US dollar strengthens, this will further lower demand for US wheat and I will further be in a whole.

Next Monday, we shall see how it all turns up. How the US economy recovers and how production is in Australia and the EU will determine my going long or short.

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