Week 4 ended with me gaining some of my lost money. What went good? From my previous research I thought that wheat prices would go up and as a result I went long on wheat.
With my previous week’s trades “in-prices” being too high, it had to be the case where the prices of wheat would go high enough so my loses wouldn’t be too bad. That was the idea going in to this week. I also went long a little bit more on Dec wheat. In the middle of the week I was floating at $33000 to $34707.12.
With reports coming in from the US that wheat stocks were going to fall in 2013 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/12/wheat-corn-stocks-fall-2013-drought?newsfeed=true) and that EU wheat was lower (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/12/wheat-corn-stocks-fall-2013-drought?newsfeed=true) I was able to get out at $886 on Thursday. Obviously prices rose with news of lower stocks. From my previous trades, I made a loss of $838.5 but gained $249 on another.
I had 3 more trades on wheat where I was able to get in at $864.75 and with prices rising to $886, I gained $1062.50 for all three. By Thursday my equity was $38768.65.
Unfortunately prices dropped before I could close those trades, my equity ended up dropping to $34381.19, lower than what I started at. (Thanks traders closing their trade after prices rose the day before and lower exports http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E8LC4UU20121012).