The Historical Cycle of How People Predict

Hobbes defines predictions as conjectures based on the experiences in the past. In that day and age that theology was prevailing, this point of view was unusual. He argues that only realities exist in nature without any foreshadowing. It is not difficult to understand that why some people are able to make predictions. The reason would be that they have experienced more and know more about these fields, and may consider them more precisely. Therefore, predictions are not omens, but foresights.

What humans can imagine are limited, and what cannot be imagined are boundless. Some people have an accurate plan of their life, but they are not likely to follow it to achieve the goal in the end owing to many unexpected events. Oppositely, some people who do not make decisions depending on experience may get to the correct destination. As for those evidences that people regard as omens, have just happened before people get a chance to recall: “Oh, that was an omen.” When they find out that those predictions do not go as they expect, they change what they had ever believed to new regularities which works at that moment. The procedures of developments of history are a cycle of questioning and correcting. This cycle in human civilization never stops, and happens similarly in science and systems of country.

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