“The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings”
– Restoring the Quality of our Environment, 1965 Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, President’s Science Advisory Committee
Researchers in the public eye have always struggled to find a balance between representing their results and being effective communicators. This was the subject of my recent essay in Climatic Change.
One solution, proposed by Roger Pielke Jr., is to be an “Honest Broker of Policy Alternatives” who provides all the available information and options. Thus, rather than pre-selecting policy options to present, which inevitably involves some value judgements, the honest broker presents all the options and allows the decision-makers to reduce the scope of options.
It is a very reasonable solution to avoid having the researcher’s personal values influence their public statements. From my article:
Failure to consider the possible influence of normative judgements on one’s thinking can lead to “covert” or “stealth” issue advocacy, in which scientists do not perceive the implied advocacy position in their research or public statements (Lackey 2007; Pielke 2007). This can undermine one’s objective of informing the public and policymakers about science and policy options.
Yet many science communicators question whether it is possible to be an honest broker, since the process of filtering and synthesizing research for public consumption involves value judgements. This is especially the case if the data or knowledge is incomplete; the researcher must make a judgement on what information to include.
A recent Twitter exchange with Pielke about his USA Today op-ed piece about hurricane trends and storm protection demonstrated just how hard it can be to control for all personal judgements*.
My suggestion the op-ed was misleading led to some back and forth about the research methods and wound to a close with an honest, funny tweet from Pielke: “Guilty — Most aspects of hurricane mitigation/preparation did not appear in my 700-word op-ed”
The tweet rightly pointed out the absurdity of my complaining about what is and is not included in a short op-ed. How could anyone fully explain the difficulty of estimating for the influence of storm preparation on the costs of storm damage, let alone all of the other research studies on the subject, in 700 words? Especially if you want those 700 words to be interesting enough to be accepted by a major newspaper?
In
presenting the findings to the public, subjective judgements had to made about which findings warrant mention. Yet this is what someone playing the honest broker would seek to avoid. A partial solution to this dilemma, suggested years ago by Stephen Schneider and discussed in my article, is to make backup materials available. Today, a blog is an easy, accessible way to present the detailed evidence behind a position taken in a shorter public statement. Many of us, including Pielke, maintain blogs for that reason.
The problem is that we are still making choices in preparing that backup material. And, regardless, few people will ever read the material. We’re lucky if they read the whole op-ed, rather than just the headline! One outcome of this is that even if a researcher perceives herself or himself to be close to the honest broker ideal, others may not.
It is for these reasons that I encourage students to understand their motivations and personal biases, rather than strive to be objective automatons. We can’t remove all personal judgements. But we can strive to be honest with ourselves about our values and motivations and take them into account when engaging with the public. From my essay:
Finding a comfortable and effective position on the science-advocacy continuum requires analyzing ourselves with the same rigour we would use to analyze our data.We are scientists, but we are also citizens, voters, taxpayers, parents, children and homeowners. Research on science communication suggests that we must consider our knowledge, our motivation, our cultural values and our ability to reach different audiences in order to be effective at public engagement… This self-analysis is critical to making personal biases explicit and separate from scientific findings, to recognizing the limits of your communication abilities, and to protecting the hard-won public trust in science.
For years, people have argued over the best term to describe what is happening to the climate: global warming or climate change.
Market-savvy environmental groups have tried re-branding the issue entirely, producing terms like global heating, global weirding, global melting, climate crisis, climate disruption, climate chaos, springtime for CO2, climate farklempt, I’ve got some coastline in Florida to sell, etc. etc. The two originals, global warming and climate change, continue to corner the market like the Coke and Pepsi of the climate world.
A recent study by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication found that global warming is more “effective” from a communications standpoint than climate change. Detailed public opinion analysis showed that “global warming” instills more concern about the issue and generates more motivation to take action.
The study also points out that the American public has for years used global warming far more than climate change, at least according to Google search data. However, if you dig further into the search data, you find some changing patterns.
Here is the U.S. search volume going back to 2004:
Global warming certainly dominated the “aughts”. Since then, its relative use has declined. If we look at the ratio of searches for global warming and climate change in the above data, you see that word preferences have been changing:
In the US (blue), the ratio has declined towards the 1:1 line (black), meaning that today there is close to an equal proportion of searches for global warming and climate change. That’s a big change since the mid-2000s, when global warming vs. climate change was like the Harlem Globetrotters vs. the Washington Generals.
In Canada, global warming was never nearly as dominant term north of the border. Climate change is now searched more often (52% of combined searches in 2014). This is no surprise to Canadians; the term climate change was adopted here years ago by most political parties and the media. That decision probably reflects the more moderate Canadian political climate, where people are more likely to trust authority, in this case, scientists and their preferred term. Granted, it also may reflect the actual climate; the term “global warming” may be scary if you live in Phoenix, but dreamy if you live in Winnipeg.
Narrowing the U.S. search data by region shows a huge geographic divide in the preferred term and the interest in the subject. For example, the next graph compares the search ratio for Texas and for the Bay Area. I tried using individual metropolitan areas in Texas and other conservative states, like Dallas-Ft. Worth or Houston, but none featured consistently high enough search volume for the past ten years. As it is, the Texas data had large gaps before 2007 (and one in 2008), when search volume was too low for the Google metric.
The ratio is dropping in both Texas and the Bay Area. Texans, however, still prefer global warming by 2:1 or more over climate change. People in the Bay Area, however, are almost evenly split (52% global warming in 2014).
If you examine the overall data state by state, a clear pattern emerges. Republican-leaning states in the southeast and central U.S. have the highest global warming to climate change search ratio, whereas Democratic-leaning states have the lowest ratio. Texas is actually not even among the top ten in global warming preference. 
Washington DC is the only “state” where climate change is the preferred term, no doubt related at least in part to its use in government.
Harry Enten at fivethirtyeight came to a somewhat similar conclusion using data from U.S. Congress and cable news channels. Enten found that democrats prefer “climate change” and Republicans prefer “global warming”. He then argues that the Yale research would recommend the exact opposite:
If the polling is to be believed, Democrats, Republicans and the news channels they watch are actually having the opposite effect they are intending. We’ll have to see whether the Yale study makes them reverse course.
There are many unresolved questions, including whether the influence noted in the Yale Study is changing over time, and what that means for language choices. Does the choice of wording matter among people who are already motivated, like many in the Bay Area, or those whose attitudes are unlikely to change? And would re-labeling by either party be so obvious to the public as to undermine the objective?
Regardless of the answers, one thing is clear from the search data. We are not paying nearly enough attention to ocean acidification:
by Meghan Beamish
While reading through the latest IPCC reports – Working Groups II and III – one word kept popping out at me: rate. Specifically when I compared this phrase:
The overall risks of climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and
magnitude of climate change.
To this:
About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years (high confidence).
With this summary of adaptation plans in North America (I added the emphasis):
In North America, governments are engaging in incremental adaptation assessment and planning, particularly at the municipal level. Some proactive adaptation is occurring to protect longer-term investments in energy and public infrastructure.
And this:
Within this century, magnitudes and rates of climate change associated with medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) pose high risk of abrupt and irreversible regional-scale change in the composition, structure, and function of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including wetlands (medium confidence).
And finally:
Greater rates and magnitude of climate change increase the likelihood of exceeding adaptation limits (high confidence). Limits to adaptation occur when adaptive actions to avoid intolerable risks for an actor’s objectives or for the needs of a system are not possible or are not currently available. Value-based judgments of what constitutes an intolerable risk may differ. Limits to adaptation emerge from the interaction among climate change and biophysical and/or socioeconomic constraints.
So, I suppose my question is, do our rates of adaptation and mitigation match the rates of climate change?
by Simon Donner
Cherry trees blossomed in Vancouver in early February during 2009-10 El Nino
Long-term forecasts say El Nino could be on the way.
This periodic climate warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can affect weather around the world, often creating droughts and fires in Australia, Papua New Guinea and parts of Africa, heavy rains and flooding in California and parts of South America, and warmth across much of Canada and the northern U.S.
If you add it all together, forecasters often say El Nino years are unusually warm worldwide. The last strong El Nino event led to 1998 being the then-warmest year in recorded history.
Would the return of the mischievous brat of the climate system lead to a new global (surface) temperature record and an end to the “pause” in surface warming?
Not so fast. It could, yes. But not all El Nino events are created equal.
According to a recent study by my former student Sandra Banholzer and I, only “Eastern Pacific” El Nino events lead to global warmth. I’ll explain the difference.
Under normal or “neutral” conditions, winds blow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific. This causes the upwelling of cold water in the east that feeds the famous coastal fisheries of South America and the amazing marine life of the Galapagos.
Temperature anomalies, or departures from normal, with depth across the equatorial Pacific
Whenever these easterly winds slow down or stop, the warm water piling up in the western Pacific – and I mean literally piling up, as the ocean can be tens of centimetres higher – can slosh back eastwards. This slow, long, east-moving wave of warmth is called a Kelvin wave. For an example, the image at right depicts the current Kelvin wave using temperate “anomalies” across the Pacific.
In general, if the change in the winds is strong and persistent enough, the Kelvin wave or series of Kelvin waves will be really warm and powerful, enough to cut off the upwelling in the east and dramatically warm the Pacific all the way from the South American coast across the International Dateline. This is what happens in a classic “Eastern Pacific” (EP) El Nino, like 1997/98 or 1982/83 (despite all the excitement about images like the above, the current Kelvin wave is alone not enough to trigger such an event; there would need to be continued or further gaps in the easterly winds).
On the other hand, if the switch in the winds is short-lived or happens only in the western half of the Pacific, the surface warming will be restricted to the middle of the Pacific, around the International Dateline. Scientists have been calling these events “Central Pacific”(CP) El Nino or El Nino “Modoki”.
Full image from February 2005 storm in Tarawa
In fact, the header for this blog comes from a photo taken in Tarawa, Kiribati – right in the Central Pacific, 7 degrees west of the International Dateline – during the 2004/5 Central Pacific event. The elevated ocean temperatures caused bleaching of corals in Kiribati (pdf), and launched my field work. In the photo, you’re seeing a combination of high seas from the CP El Nino event, an El Nino driven westerly storm and a high tide blast the homes along the lagoon shoreline with waves.
The effects of an El Nino event on weather around the world (“teleconnections”) can depend on the type of event because of how the location and extent of abnormally warm Pacific waters affects the atmosphere. Our study showed that if you control for the other influences on global average surface temperature (like volcanoes and the human-induced trend), Central Pacific and “mixed” events are not unusually warm globally. Only the Eastern Pacific events affect the global average surface temperature.
This has important implications for the “pause” in surface warming. Over the past 10-15 years, the easterly winds have been abnormally strong, with few gaps sufficient to generate Kelvin waves. This is related to decade-scale variability in the Pacific Ocean conditions, called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO).
It may then come as no surprise that all the El Nino events since 1998, including the 2009/10 event that made the cherries blossom early in Vancouver, have all been of the CP variety. The same happens to be true for other “slowdowns” in the rate of global surface temperature change since the Industrial Revolution. This suggests the decade-scale variability in the Pacific affects El Nino development, and in turn, the ups and downs in the rate of human-caused global surface warming. From the conclusion of our paper:
The current mean state of the Pacific tends to restrict wind anomalies and anomalous convection to the central Pacific, and hence favours CP rather than EP events [Xiang et al., 2012]. A shift in the mean state of the Pacific back to a warm phase in a few years may allow for globally warm traditional EP El Niño events to return.
Could this coming El Nino spell the end of the pattern?
It is simply too early to say for certain. There are some telling signs. For one, the change in upper ocean heat content over the past three months is similar to that of the last two Eastern Pacific events (1997/98, 1982/83). We should be careful about reading too much into those numbers. There are other years in which such a pattern in upper ocean heat content did not lead to an Eastern Pacific El Nino event.
Unfortunately, patience is not a virtue on the internet!