Gap between García and Flores: 0.852%
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.90%
Alan García (Apra) 24.38%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.53%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.85% (about 95,800 votes).
According to Magdalena Chu, chief of ONPE, 100 percent of the votes abroad should be available and computed within the next two days. After that, the Special Election Boards and the National Election Board will have to resolve all outstanding issues. The final official result may not be known until the end of the month. The second round will probably be held on the last Sunday of May or first Sunday of June.
ONPE Presidential Results at 89.481%
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.900%
Alan García (Apra) 24.383%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.531%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.852%
Lourdes se acerca más a Alan y los separan 95 mil votos
El Comercio Online, 16 de abril del 2006
¿Será el Domingo de Resurrección que esperaba Lourdes Flores? La más reciente actualización de la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), al 89,481% da novedades con respecto a la lucha por definir el pase a la segunda vuelta. Ollanta Humala (UPP) se mantiene primero con 30,900%, segundo está Alan García (Apra) con 24,383% y en la tercera posición Lourdes Flores (UN) con 23,531%. La diferencia se reduce ahora a 0,852%.
Según informes radiales, la diferencia de votos entre el segundo y el tercer lugar es de 95,619 entre ambos.
En cuanto a los votos del extranjero, siguen favoreciendo a la candidata de Unidad Nacional. Al 40,47% de estos votos computados hasta el momento, Flores Nano tiene un 57% a favor.
Según esta última actualización, Humala Tasso ha conseguido hasta el momento 3.469.588 votos, García Pérez 2.737.815 votos y Flores Nano 2.642.196 votos.
García – Flores ONPE Presidential Results at 89.14%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.96%
Ollanta Humala 30.94% (3,465,296)
Alan García 24.40% (2,733,535)
Lourdes Flores 23.44% (2,625,217)
With 89.14% of the vote counted.
Mirko Lauer makes an interesting observation: as each day passes without a decisive result, Humala benefits from the perception of winning handily in this election while Lourdes Flores and Alan Garcia are worn down in a bitter struggle over a small margin of victory.
En la demora está el peligro
La República, 15 de abril del 2006. Por Mirko Lauer.
Entre las agrupaciones menores empiezan a asomar los hematomas de la derrota, sobre todo bajo la forma del reproche al candidato.
El demorado foto finish de la primera vuelta empieza a generar sus propios efectos políticos. Sobre todo refuerza el prestigio del triunfo de Ollanta Humala frente al predicamento de quienes aparecen arranchándose los últimos votos del día para volverse el No2. Para el No1 este es un tiempo precioso en que puede aparecer como el único candidato no discutido, y eso significa que los medios han hecho un alto en sus ataques.
En cambio en el bando contrario operan ya varias formas del desgaste. A pesar de las recurrentes declaraciones de principio, la idea de un bando democrático unificado empieza a sufrir las consecuencias de una pugna cada vez más áspera. Además el cariz judicial que ha tomado la cosa (eso es lo que significa acudir al JNE) no anuncia un final feliz, sino mucha sangre en el ojo del No3.
Como cada vez más las alianzas de segunda vuelta se presentan como sapos que es preciso tragarse para frenar a Humala, habría que preguntarse cuánto pesa realmente este argumento táctico. Es decir si esa desesperación en nombre de la democracia no puede terminar siendo electoralmente bastante menos que la suma de sus partes, y si la ganancia de la unidad no irá por la vía del voto en blanco.
En otras palabras, ¿cuántos votos aporta o resta un abrazo Alan-Lourdes? Más todos los abrazos menores que será preciso hilvanar por el camino. ¿Tendrá sentido electoral tomarse una foto con el 20% de aprobación de un Alejandro Toledo agente del TLC? Por este camino se llega a la procesión ad hoc con que se intentó detener al advenedizo Alberto Fujimori en 1990.
Humala entiende que este interregno le resulta útil para seguir suavizando su imagen y dejar atrás, al menos en la psicología de una parte de las masas, las feas acusaciones que lo persiguen. Anuncia un viaje a los EEUU, lo cual calmará a una parte de sus críticos, pero espera los resultados locales para empezar a buscar aliados en firme dentro del Perú.
Entre las agrupaciones menores empiezan a asomar los hematomas de la derrota, sobre todo bajo la forma del reproche al candidato. En el fujimorismo ya se perfila claro el fantasma de la división. En el Frente de centro es el propio Valentín Paniagua quien lidera la autocrítica. En las izquierdas subsiste el mismo estupor con que entraron en campaña.
Estas son algunas de las consecuencias de la primera demora. Si el escenario de las impugnaciones prolonga mucho más las cosas veremos nuevos efectos, más complicados. Por lo pronto las críticas cruzadas entre la ONPE y el JNE, con el telón de fondo de algunas acusaciones de irregularidad, anuncian el peligro de problemas de otra naturaleza para el camino institucional.
Se reduce ventaja de García sobre Flores Nano a 0,96%
Peru21.com
15 abril de 2006
Ollanta Humala se mantiene en el primer lugar con el 30.94% de votos válidos, seguido de Alan García, con 24.40% y Lourdes Flores Nano con 23.44%, según el último conteo de la ONPE, al 89.14% de actas escrutadas.
La distancia entre García y Flores Nano se redujo a 0,96. Ambos candidatos se disputan palmo a palmo su pase a segunda vuelta y enfrentar al militar en retiro.
Entre tanto, Martha Chávez se mantiene en el cuarto lugar con 7.46%, mientras que el líder del Frente de Centro, Valentín Paniagua, quedó en quinto lugar con 5.74%.
Según el reporte, Humala obtuvo 3’465,296 votos, seguido de García con 2’733,535 votos y Flores Nano con 2625,217. 108,318 votos separan al líder aprista de la lideresa de Unidad Nacional.
Source: La República, 15 de abril del 2006
Alan Garcia 24.422%
Lourdes Flores 23.420%
Alan sigue segundo y Lourdes experimenta un ligero avance
La República, 15 de abril del 2006. Por Flor Huilca
LA PELEA ES VOTO A VOTO
• Al cierre del cómputo al 89.016%, Alan tiene 24.422% y Lourdes 23.420%
• Para Unidad Nacional el día empezó bien tras acortarse la brecha que la alejaba del Apra a 0.8%, pero luego esta volvió a crecer hasta llegar al 1.002%
El drama del Viernes Santo lo vivió ayer Alan García voto a voto. Al inicio de la jornada en la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) su margen de diferencia sobre Lourdes Flores cayó hasta 0.89% –el más bajo de los últimos días–, aunque no lo suficiente para desplazarlo del segundo lugar. Al final del día el Apra parecía haber terminado la jornada con tranquilidad: recuperó su ventaja en 1.002%. Eso significa al 89.016% del escrutinio, un 24.422% para Alan García , mientras un 23.420% para Lourdes Flores. Una diferencia en votos de 112,142 a favor de los apristas, casi el promedio de lo que mantienen desde que lograron arrebatarle el segundo lugar a la candidata de Unidad Nacional.
El movimiento de las cifras se debió principalmente a votos nacionales que ayer ingresaron al sistema de la ONPE. Del extranjero solo se computaron las actas de la ciudad de Miami, Estados Unidos. Se espera que en este fin de Semana Santa se logre computar el 40% de votos extranjeros.
Allí radica la esperanza de Lourdes Flores para tener un sábado de gloria. Xavier Barrón, personero de UN, confía en que el 60% de votos que en promedio obtuvo Lourdes fuera del país le permitan sumar 120 mil votos más cuando termine el conteo del 100%. El resto de votos para superar a García lo buscarán en las actas observadas.
El bajón del APRA
Conforme ayer se computaban los votos, los dígitos avanzaron a favor de Apra tras la caída de 7 de la mañana. Dos horas después la diferencia sobre Lourdes subió a 0.998%, al mediodía llegó al 1% y a las 4 de la tarde pasó al 1,002%, cifra que se mantuvo hasta las 7:41 pm, hora del último reporte del día.
La disputa de votos en este tramo final del conteo se concentrará en los que vienen del exterior, de los que falta procesar 2.319% de actas. En el país solo queda por procesar 0.8% de actas. Wilfredo Castro, personero del Apra, señaló que dentro de sus cálculos estaba la reducción de la diferencia a favor de Lourdes con los votos del extranjero, aunque sin abandonar el segundo lugar. Esperan recuperar ese bajón con las actas observadas, pues de las 7 mil, un tercio son del interior del país, donde García le lleva ventaja a Lourdes. La confianza en esos cálculos motivó que anuncien que desistirán de los pedidos de nulidad de las elecciones en cinco ciudades del exterior.
No llegan votos del exterior
El feriado largo de Semana Santa aplazará por lo menos hasta después del lunes la llegada del 60% de actas del exterior que deben ingresar al computo de la ONPE. Las actas son enviadas vía correo privado por las embajadas y consulados a la Cancillería, que luego las remite a la ONPE.
Físicamente llegaron solo el 40% de las actas electorales, de las cuales se computó hasta ayer en la noche el 26.41%. Esperan terminar hasta el lunes con la totalidad de estas actas.
Hoy se prevé que se sumen al conteo las mesas de votación de España y algunas ciudades de Estados Unidos. En el exterior estaban hábiles para votar 450 mil peruanos, pero solo lo habrían hecho 300 mil aproximadamente.
18 replies on “9:30 PM: ONPE Presidential Results at 89.49%”
Since this web site continues to publish incomplete information. Of the 250,000 ex-patriate votes, 121,000 have been counted. Flores has widened her percent lead over Garcia to 40%. And so for every 25% counted, she gains 15,000 votes. On the ONPE web site it shows that with almost 50% of the ex-patriate vote she has closed the gap to 93,000 votes from 120,000 votes. If this trend continues, she will still end up 60,000 votes short. Then it gets to the political machinations of the votes that have been held back, which ones get counted. Of the 350,000 votes that have been held back, only 91,000 originate from Lima. This means that once the exterior votes get counted, Garcia will begin to widen his lead again. As will Humala.
PPK and the election. I got this quote from someone who met Pablo Kucynski at one of those exclusive Peruvian beach resorts 60 miles south of Lima that the ordinary Peruvians aren’t allowed to go to. It is ironic how academics go back and forth between academia and government. Would Max Cameron be more likely to be appointed or hired by a Flores government or a Humala government.
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is Peru’s finance minister and a Princeton economist. In spite of Choledo’s ignorance and incompetence, PPK managed to get the economy moving and Peru has experienced very good growth. (QUESTION, IS THIS THE GUY WHO NEGOTIATED THE DEAL WITH THE U.S. WITHOUT REFERENDUM?)
PPK says there is a big difference between the Indian from the province and the Indian from the city. The Indian from the city has benefited from the growth and to hear them speak, they don’t trust Humala very much. Alan Garcia is the key to this election. There will be a run-off and you will see Alan supporting Lourdes.
PPK, who we know from the beach, predicts a Lourdes win. He is hedging his bets though because Humala has stated that he will have Toledo and PPK arrested if he wins. That’s all Peru needs, a Cholo with bravado.
It is remarkable that Flores vote total in the U.S. is so significant. I attribute this to Flores well-funded ability to run email campaigns through the San Isidro Miraflores Peruvian Longtime Elitists (SIMPLE) network. There are many Americans and Europeans who are dual citizens of their new countries. Should these people, legally, be allowed to vote for Peru’s leader? Many of them haven’t been in Peru in years. Humala, whose followers are mostly too poor to have the internet or electricity for that matter, is at an incredible disadvantage.
It was generally my understanding, at least in terms of South American migrants, that most people who are able to head out of their country’s are generally middle class and up. This in my opinion, coupled with the squeeky clean image projected about LFN in the U.S. media campaigns, have helped her garner votes there. Add to that thought a general ethic amongst expatriat peruvians, and peruvians in general, that hard work and education are the keys to advancement. It actually works in the states so perhaps LFN’s image as a squeeky clean, professional woman when contrasted to the disastrous AGP government and the heavy handed smear campaign against AHT has benefitted her.
I do recall that a spanish language television station in the states showed images of the LGBT community rally, against the Mayor of Lima, was projected in the foreign press as an anti-humala rally.
Max, had you truly understood Peruvian history, you would know if the “SIMPLE” network really existed, Vargas Llosa would have won Fujimori and Flores would have won Toledo. The poor and uniformed have elected every democratic president we’ve ever had.
Also, it is an advantage for Humala that his followers are poor and have no internet. He can only get votes from the ignorant and uninformed, unfortunately which is most of peru. It is no surprise that those outside of Peru would vote for a free market, pro-industry candidate. This has nothing to do with wealth, but instead education.
Also, since you apparently never read to the end of your last politics text book, the only equality socialism and communism have ever achieved in the history of our world is equality in poverty, misery, and tyranny.
Max — if you don’t like this blog, maybe you can start yours and see how many actually are interested in your opinions. Why shouldn’t Peruvians abroad vote? Never mind that Peru makes it difficult to vote — there are no mail-in ballots and you have to travel to a city with a consulate to vote between 9am and 4pm. Then the media wonders about absentees, but ONPE is happy to collect the 40 consular dollars for the fine…
Almost every democracy in the world allows their emigrants to vote. Chile is an exception (created by Pinochet) that many hope will lift this restriction soon. Compared to some other countries, Peru has very few people living abroad. Think of Italy (with representation in Congress for emigrants) or Greece, for example, to get a sense of the importance of vote abroad.
PLL, That’s a common approach to people who don’t agree. If you don’t like it leave. If that’s the case, same to the SIMPLE alliance.
Also, you give away your lack of knowledge of the U.S. It is easier for the SIMPLEtons to get to the voting areas than those who may not come from the middle / upper class money.
I have no problems with Peruvians abroad voting. But every Peruvian in the U.S. since the U.S. made citizens of everyone here since 1999, should have to prove they are not U.S. citizens as denoted on a U.S. driver’s license or Social Security card. Why should people be able to vote in two countries?
Javier, I’m still waiting on the link with all those quotes you attribute to Humala.
Max, how can you be going on about “inclusion” when you use a racial slur like “cholo”?
Many expatriates have family in Peru, as well as personal interests. We more than have a right to have a say in those affairs.
SIMPLE, a very good concept, but I do not think that it really exists as an entity. Many of my “SIMPLEtons” 🙂 friends think that the one that choose a different political position is because they are not informed or are almost stupid or potencial criminals. I think everybody (me included) should really try to understand other political positions. We must not became political fundamentalist.
By the way, I think peruvians abroad have the right to vote. I do not know the legal implications for those who are in the U.S.
Jordi
Max,
You are right when you say that foreign vote will no be enough to change the election results, I believe at the end the difference will be of 40,000 to 50,000 votes for Garcia.
What I do not agree with is your intrest in neglecting the voting right to peruvians with dual citizenship. I remember you that according to peruvian constitution, peruvians only lose their peruvian citizenship by surrenderring it publicly before peruvian authorities.
On the reasons why peruvians abroad voted for Lourdes Flores, it is not because most of them belong to the wealthy class, in fact most peruvians that migrate abroad, do it because the lack of opportunities in Peru and they are lower and middle class people. I woul agree better with the idea that the experience living abroad has taught them that free market economies contribute better towards the country´s economic stability. Remember that Alan García´s socialist government was a complete disaster.
Max, quit using your made up acronym. Can’t you make any arguments without resorting to spewing stupid insults like a five year old?
Why should people be able to vote in two countries? Why not?
Inkan169, are you a U.S. citizen? You shouldn’t be voting for the Peruvian president then. If you are only a Peruvian citizen then go right ahead. You didn’t read my quote correctly, I didn’t use the slur, it was a quote from someone else with a SIMPLE attitude.
Max: This web site provides more complete information than any other I have seen. The people who have taken the trouble to afford us this forum are doing a fantastic job and therefore your comment about “continuing to publish incomplete information” is misplaced – there was no implied promise anywhere of posting every piece of information. If you can improve upon it, by all means do.
As to your comment about voting from abroad, it is evident that I disagree — Peruvians do not have to prove anything except that they are eligible to vote. You may want to get acquainted, someday, Peru’s citizenship law: Peruvians do not loose their citizenship (and the rights and obligations that come with it) unless they expressly renounce it “before a competent authority”; dual citizenship is explicitly allowed, as is in many other countries. If anything, voting while you live abroad should be voluntary, not mandatory. When someone living abroad votes, it is because he/she cares and can travel to the city where voting booths have been enabled. If you do not intend to return or don’t care an iota, you simply don’t vote. You may want to read up, too, before you start typing about how to prove US citizenship: neither a driver’s license nor a social security card are proofs of US citizenship. And, if they were, why not vote in two countries? Is there something in a persons’ brain that would preclude them from caring and being up to date with the situation in two countries?
Depending on the context Cholo can be interpreted as a term of endearment or as pejorative to peruvians with darker complexion, of a lower social economic strata, or recent arrival from a provincial area.
No harm depending on how one uses it.
Victor
PLL, are you paying taxes in both the U.S. and Peru? If not and if you are a U.S. citizen and paying taxes here, you shouldn’t be voting in Peru. You are playing without paying. Why should you have any say whatsoever on the fate of the indigenous 82% of the country?
Max, I’m sorry for misunderstanding that last line in your post. But you keep calling President Toledo “Choledo”. What’s up with that?
And do we take the vote away from Peruvians who pay no tax because they are too poor to pay tax?
U.S. Naturalized Peruvians have the option to renounce or affirm their Peruvian citizenship. That they make the deliberate effort to maintain their Peruvian citizenship and become dual citizens indicates they have an active interest in Peruvian civic affairs.
Max — I love the tax argument. Fabulous argument, thank you (autogol!). If you understood the first thing about Peru, you would know that only what you call the “SIMPLE” people and their firms are tax payers in Peru. Are you suggesting that only actual tax paying citizens vote? Peru should become a new plutocracy? Perhaps you consider not speaking about things way, way beyond your knowledge.