If there is a single fact that jumps out of the APOYO exit poll it is the low level of support for Ollanta Humala in Lima. In the first round, Humala won 24 percent of the vote in Lima. According to this exit poll, he has only improved his vote by 13 points to 36.9 percent. By contrast, Garcia has improved his vote almost threefold, from 22 to 63.1 percent. Lima represents 5 million voters. The only department where Humala did worse was La Libertad in the “solid north.”
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3 replies on “Comment on APOYO Exit Poll: Election Decided in Lima”
I heard from a Political Analist named Adrianzen, on open channel 4, that only four departments have about 48% of the total vote. Is this True? As a matter of fact, he also said that this four departments where Lima, La Libertad, Ancash and Piura. Coincidently, the four departments where Apra is the most popular. That would imply a serious problem of misrepresentation. Any facts on this subject?
La misrepresentacion la esta haciendo Humala quien esta dando un discurso triunfalista como si hubiera ganado antes de saber los resultados y ademas esta convocando a todo el pueblo para empezar la supuesta “gran transformacion.” Esto tiene un objetivo: incitar a la poblacion en contra del voto general que ha apoyado a Humala. Lo que esta haciendo Humala no es convocar a la gran transformacion sino a la confrontacion entre peruanos (al estilo de lo que hoy pasa en Venezuela). El sabe que ha perdido y tal como lo dijo cuando Lourdes Flores estaba en carrera, esta convocando a que la gente no acepte estos resultados. Esto es abominable, que egoismo, por que no aceptar la derrota? El quiere enfrentamiento y desde ya lo esta incentivando. Esta llamando al pueblo a defender el nacionalismo que supuestamente el representa cuando todos los resultados senalan a Garcia ganador. Ademas ha dicho, “independientemente de los resultados de la ONPE” va a convocar a todo el pueblo peruano. Ojala que la gente no lo siga.
The fact that 4 departments represent 48% of the vote does not speak to problems of misrepresentation because votes are not tabulated at the departmental level. All that matters is the number of votes each candidate receives, meaning that a slim majority in a large province might be more important than a large victory in a small province. In general, the results in Lima, La Libertad, Ancash and Piura confirm the strength of the APRA candidacy in urban centers (or, alternatively, the weakness of the Humala campaign in attracting votes outside of rural highlands) and thus a developing geographic cleavage that will shape Garcia’s ability to govern but not a failure of representation per se.