Financial Times Analysis of Peruvian Youth and Election Results

In Peru, children of rich and poor dream of leaving
By Hal Weitzman in Lima
Published: April 14 2006 19:08
Villa Maria del Triunfo is a dusty shanty town in southern Lima poised between development and squalor. Most of its 340,000 inhabitants are migrants from the southern Peruvian highlands, or their children. Some who have prospered have built mini-mansions whose gaudy marble facades sit anomalously on the dirt streets. Others live in shacks of rusty corrugated iron and straw matting.
“People here think about surviving, nothing more,” says 17-year-old Giancarlo Ordoñez. “Life here is ultra-short-term. It’s about getting two soles to make it through the day.”
Young people in districts such as Villa Maria have long been attracted to the idea of escaping poverty by leaving Peru, but for many, last week’s elections could be the final push they need to do so.
Ollanta Humala, the radical nationalist who came first in the first round of presidential elections last week, would have hoped to win a lot of support in Villa Maria. But in fact he got no more votes here than Lourdes Flores, the market-friendly candidate, reflecting a view among many that things are slowly getting better.
Although counting is likely to go on for several more days, former President Alan García, who has more support outside Lima, is looking ever more likely to edge out Ms Flores to make it into the second-round run-off. Given that Mr García’s 1985-1990 administration ended in economic chaos, and given the uncertainty of Mr Humala’s plans, many young people are gloomy.
“I can’t get a job here that allows me to make enough money to save,” says Giancarlo. “My dad lives in the US, and I’m planning to go there. I’ll make some money. Then I’ll come back and start a business here.”
If Giancarlo leaves, he will be joining a rising wave of emigration from Peru. From a population of about 28m, more than 400,000 Peruvians left the country last year, up from about 300,000 in 2004, according to government figures. Many come from the 28 per cent of the population aged between 15 and 29: polls suggest that 75 per cent of young people want to emigrate, the most popular destinations being the US, Chile and Spain.
While their relative economic success abroad has fuelled the desire to leave Peru, emigrants also sent about $2.5bn (£1.4bn, €2.1bn) back to the country last year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.
Although high levels of under-employment are a strong factor, there is also a widespread perception among young people that education levels are so poor that worthwhile training can only be obtained abroad.
“I can learn more reading at home than going to school,” says Vanessa Chumpitaz, 19, from Villa Maria.
During the election campaign, Mr Humala picked up on the theme. “There’s no work for our young people,” he said at his closing rally in Lima last week. “They are queuing up outside foreign embassies to get visas to leave the country.”
But while he may hope to stem the tide with job-creation, Mr Humala’s candidacy has made it more likely that a different set of young Peruvians – the children of the wealthy – will want to leave their country.
About 8km north of Villa Maria in the upmarket district of Miraflores, the signs of Peru’s impressive headline economic growth – 6.7 per cent last year – are evident in a construction boom and the popularity of new bars and restaurants. As in Villa Maria, there is a tangible fear in the chatter over Lima’s finest cuisine that Mr Humala threatens to reverse the economic progress of recent years.
Alex, a 24-year-old who owns a small IT consultancy in the neighbourhood employing three people, says he is depressed at the prospect of a second-round presidential run-off between Mr Humala and Mr Garcia.
“I’m scared of what will happen to the country if Alan becomes president again,” he says. “And if Humala wins, I’ll stay for the first six to eight months to see how things pan out. But if things start going as people think they will, I’ll leave the country. I’ve already spoken to some relatives in the UK about possibly coming to stay with them.”
Whereas among young entrepreneurs in Lima’s upmarket districts there is trepidation about the next government’s policy towards their business interests, in Villa Maria there is a more immediate worry.
“A lot of young people here fear that Humala might reintroduce military service,” says Gilmer Cárdenas, a 19-year-old from the poor neighbourhood who is training to be a chef. “I want to get out soon. If Humala wins, it could become impossible for us to leave the country.”