1.http://www.agweb.com/article/blockbuster_bean_yields_headline_harvest_reports/

How can the weather affect the amount of soybeans and crop? This article talks about the farmers’ opinions. As they are first hand information, it is important to know what’s going on. As U.S. farmers wrap up their 2012 harvest seasons, several are reporting outstanding soybean returns via the AgWeb Crop Comments page. Meanwhile, corn yields are mixed as a result of this summer’s drought.

2.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/87815-cbot-wheat-rallies-closes-above-50-day-moving-average-.html

I recommend this article because it concludes all the information about import and export ban announced by governments that can affect the price of crop this week. For example, Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister said the country would ban wheat exports from Nov. 15 following a weather-damaged harvest. Syria’s General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade said it was seeking 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat of bread-making quality in an international tender.

3. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/28/nyregion/hurricane-sandy.html

I find an article about Hurricane Sandy. It’s a updating website, tracking the storm, written by The New York Times. This is a disaster and it will affect the demand and transport for food. It will push the price up. I’m sure you will find it useful when you want to find out how the Hurricane can affect the price of crops.

This week, I’ll still focus on wheat. I believe that the price of wheat will still go up.

One reason is that the harvest of wheat is coming to an end. However, the most important reason is that Hurricane Sandy will attack the east coast of America. There will be more wheat needed and the transport of wheat will be inconvenient. Sandy is a very severe disaster that may cause severe floods. I’m afraid the CBOT may stop trading for days.

Another reason may raise the price up is that Storms have pelted the South American grains powerhouse since August, raising uncertainty about crops needed to bolster food stocks after dry weather slashed output in other major producers such as Russia, Australia and the United States. Argentina’s upcoming wheat harvest is expected to shrink 17 percent from last season to 11.5 million tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said last week, as farmers skirt export curbs by shifting to other crops. I’m afraid this week, the bad weather is the most important factor that can decrease the supply of wheat and increase the price.

Third reason is that Taiwan Flour Mills Association tendered to buy 104,000 tonnes of milling wheat from the United States for shipment in November and December. The future price of November and December will increase too because there may be less available by that time.

So, this week, I will still go long on wheat and I’m looking forward to get more reward this time.

This week, my equity is $38360.88. I earned $2400 for the four long contracts of wheat (gain $600 each). So, what went right?

I went long on wheat two weeks ago and I’m glad to find out that the price of wheat went up. There are many reasons for that. I think the most important one is that the harvest of wheat is coming to an end. As time goes by, it is obvious that the price of wheat will go up.

There is some new information about wheat last week. Board of Trade wheat futures rose 1.6 percent to their highest level in more than three weeks on Wednesday on hopes that Ukraine’s export ban would raise demand for US supplies on the world market. Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister said the country would ban wheat exports from Nov. 15 following a weather-damaged harvest. Then, the price of wheat will go up and speculators will buy more. The future price of wheat will go up. Besides, Syria’s General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade said it was seeking 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat of bread-making quality in an international tender. With the rising demand of wheat all over the world for last week, it is clearly that wheat will be more expensive.

1.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/86790-cbot-corn-gains-as-us-harvest-nears-end-.html

Knowing the harvest progress is very important. We need to know what’s going on before making any decisions. Occasional showers over the next week to 10 days will cause minor slowdowns in harvesting the US corn and soybean crops, an agricultural meteorologist said. “The bottom line is they’ll fall short of perfect harvest weather but will be able to chip away and be close to complete by the end of the month,” said John Dee, meteorologist for Global Weather Monitoring.

2. http://www.agweb.com/article/feed_demand_for_wheat_to_soar/

Wheat is consumed both by human and livestock. The U.S. wheat supply will dwindle as poultry and livestock producers continue to turn to wheat as an economical feed source. In the same report, USDA projected a reduction in the global wheat supply. Total world wheat production is now estimated at 653.05 million metric tons, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 658.73 million metric tons and more than 7 percent smaller than 2011-12 world production of 695.69 million metric tons.

3. http://www.agweb.com/article/cme_group_to_acquire_kansas_city_board_of_trade/

CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, and the Kansas City Board of Trade, the leading futures market for hard red winter (HRW) wheat, announced they have signed a definitive agreement under which CME Group will acquire the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT).

As the US soybean harvest at 71 percent complete, there is no more important news about soybean released. I’ll just keep it until there is something new released. Next week, I’ll pay more attention on wheat.

For wheat, there is something important that we should pay attention to. US wheat futures rose on Thursday on better-than-expected export sales as well as some concerns about dry conditions hurting harvest prospects for recently seeded winter crops, traders said.

Besides, the US Agriculture Department said weekly export sales of wheat were 410,000 tonnes, topping forecasts for 250,000 to 375,000 tonnes. A week ago, wheat export sales were 279,900 tonnes.

Third, the U.S. wheat supply will dwindle as poultry and livestock producers continue to turn to wheat as an economical feed source. Increased demand for U.S. wheat in the current crop year is expected to more than offset the growing wheat supply. Wheat export, wheat for domestic food use, and wheat used for seed are expected to remain relatively flat from last year, but feed use will soar, according to USDA.

It is obvious that the price of wheat will go up next week. The strategy for next week is to go long on wheat. At the same time, I will keep an eye on soybean. As soon as the price of soybean go down, I’ll offset quickly.

This week, my equity is $36362.77. I went short on four soybean contracts two weeks ago and as the time goes by, I begin to lose money. Each of them is losing $487.5. The reason is quite simple. As the harvesting is coming in an end, the price of will begin to rise. At the same time, there are several important information that may be the reason affected the price of soy beans last week.

Additional pressure from talk of better-than-expected US soybean yields as the harvest winds down. Ahead of USDA’s weekly crop progress report expected later on Monday, analysts surveyed by Reuters pegged the US soybean harvest at 71 percent complete. This is very important. Knowing the harvest progress can help us finding out the trend of price. If the harvest will be end, the price will increase significant.

At the same time, cold front that moved into southeastern Brazil over the weekend will likely bring light rainfall to the country’s main soy belt this week, providing welcome soil moisture – forecaster Somar. Brazil is expected to surpass the United States in 2012/2013 as the world’s top soybean producer. In long run, Brazil can produce more soybean in the future. The price will decrease years later.

NOPA reported US stocks of soyoil in September at 2.043 billion lbs, down from 2.168 billion in August but slightly above the average trade estimate of 2.012 billion lbs. This can slightly rise the future price.

1.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/84038-us-wheat-falls-posts-biggest-weekly-losses-in-3-months-.html

US wheat falls, posts biggest weekly losses in 3 months. This is an article about wheat. This article explains the reason why the US wheat futures fell on Friday. After carefully reading the article, we can figure out the exactly reason of the falling price and after find out if the problems are solved, we can make our own decision of the future price of wheat.

2. http://www.agweb.com/article/high_prices_offset_some_crop_yield_loss/

A report by University of Missouri agricultural economists show despite a drought, net farm income is still strong. This is nothing to do with the trading game. However, I think it’s a very good resource for us, especially for students who study food price and food marketing to know what happens in the real world and what is the situation of the farmers.

3. http://www.agweb.com/article/pressure_on_usda_to_increase_yields/

The report of USDA is going to be released soon. Due to some timely rains in September that rescued the crop from the drought and extreme heat it suffered through during the summer, the analysts believed that the US soybean crop is bigger than previously forecast. This is a very important signal that the price of soybean may reduce next week. I’ll go short on Monday and go long on Friday.

Next week, I want to pay more attention to soybean.

For soybean, due to some timely rains in September that rescued the crop from the drought and extreme heat it suffered through during the summer, the analysts believed that the US soybean crop is bigger than previously forecast. This is a very important signal that the price of soybean may reduce next week.

The upcoming USDA report was expected to show that the crop weathered the adverse conditions better than the government had initially expected. The USDA’s monthly report was expected to forecast the US soybean crop at 2.759 billion bushels, based on the average of estimates in a Reuters survey of 26 analysts. The average yield was seen at 37.006 bushels per acre, up 4.8 percent from a month ago. A month ago, USDA pegged the soybean crop at 2.634 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 35.3 bushels per acre.

The USDA will release its October crop production and supply/demand reports at 7:30 a.m. CDT (1230 GMT) on Thursday. That means, the price of soybean will go down after the report is released. So, it will be a very good idea for me to go short on soybean next week. I’ll went short on Monday and I’m sure I can earn a lot on Friday.

This week my equity is $$38314.42, $5000 higher than the equity of last week. Last month, I went long 2 contracts on wheat on September 24^th and went short this week on October 1^st. I earned $1026.5 each. I also went short 2 contracts on wheat last week on September 28^th last week and went long this week on October 2^nd. I earned $849 each.

The reason of doing this is quite simple. The price of wheat went up on October 1^st because of the report written by USDA last Friday, the storage of wheat is less than expected. That will make the wheat price higher.

The price of wheat went down on October 2^nd. This is mainly because the forecasts were putting this year’s grain maize crop at 3.6 million tonnes which would be up by a dramatic 1.2 million tonnes on last year and so provide the local market with a sharply increased volume of feed grain supplies. The prospects of this huge increase in maize production were restraining trade in the market this week. The price of corn will decrease in long term and it will make the wheat cheaper in long term. I’m very happy that I made the right decision last week. The price of wheat will mainly go down next week. However, the price may went up slightly in the first few days.