1. http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america.html?start=7

I’m really interested in wheat price. That’s why I’ll recommend this website. With updated wheat news, it can help us analyze the trend of wheat price. What’s more, it will summarize the important news that influenced wheat price of the whole week. With the summary, we can learn to analyze the factor ourselves.

2. http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome

As we know, the price of corn and wheat were basically declining last week. However, on Friday, the price of corn and wheat increased sharply. What happened? Well, the report of USDA was released. The report pointed out that the stockpiles of corn and wheat is lower than expected. That’s why I believe USDA is really important for future price.

3. http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/europe/82394-indias-pec-issues-new-tenders-to-sell-225000-t-wheat-.html

Knowing what happened in the whole world is really important. We should not only focus on North America, Europe and Asia is really important too. Policy of the government and big companies can always affect the future price.

4. http://www.agweb.com/article/wheat_crop_insurance_in_2013/

Wheat crop insurance in 2013 is released recently. There are some changes in the insurance. That will definitely affect the decision of farmers. How can this changes affect the farmers’ decisions? Will there be more wheat produced? Reading this article can help us predict what will happen in the wheat market.

As the price of wheat kept decreasing last week, finally, on Friday, the wheat price was increased. According to the USDA report, the storage of wheat is less than expected. That will make the wheat price higher.

At the same time, however, Russia decided to raise the wheat price instead of limit the export. The European future climbed 2 percent on Friday, recovering from a six-week low hit earlier in the day.

Traders reported on Thursday sales of European Union wheat to Iran, Morocco and Algeria, which together with recent purchases by Egypt would bring to over 1.6 million tones volumes for shipment between September and December. Feed wheat futures in London were also higher with November up 4.8 pounds at 202.75 pounds a tone.

However, forecasts are putting this year’s grain maize crop at 3.6 million tonnes which would be up by a dramatic 1.2 million tonnes on last year and so provide the local market with a sharply increased volume of feed grain supplies. The prospects of this huge increase in maize production were restraining trade in the market this week. Because corn and wheat are substituted, the price of corn will decrease in long term and it will make the wheat cheaper in long term.

This week is a very tough week. My equity is 33293.16 and I lost $7244.39. I made many terrible decisions that I can learn many things from them.

First of all, no matter how sure you think your judgements are, don’t make too many contracts. I believe that the price will increase eventually this week. I made a serious mistake that I made too many contacts and I decided to go short immediately when the price of wheat and corn go up. Unfortunately, the price kept going down until Friday.

Second, never offset the losing money contracts easily. As the price went down during the day, because I bought too many contracts, I began to worry I’ll be bankrupt this week if I don’t do anything to stop it. After carefully thinking, I failed to find anything may stop the falling of price. I went short the contracts because I was afraid of being bankrupt because of keeping losing money. As we know, if I do not offset the contracts, I may still have chance to earn money. So, we need to consider carefully when we decide to offset contracts that still losing money. That also implies we shouldn’t make too many contracts no matter how sure you think your judgements are.

If we want to make profit in the commodity future market, information is the most important thing. Only with fast, new, reliable information of all over the world, we can make the right decision. In order to make decision for both long run and short run, I found several website that is really helpful. They update very often and some of them even post analysis articles that are really helpful to green hand.

First, I’d like to introduce the website of United States Department of Agriculture. It is a professional web government website with lots of updated reliable information. We can find out information about supply and demand as well as climate change

http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome

Second, a website powered by Farm Journal called AGWEB is also a very good source of information. When you enter the website, you can choose “Crops” section and you can find information about corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton. With updated news, this is a very good website with clear classify.

http://www.agweb.com/crops/

Third, a website called Business Recorder founded by a Pakistan’s premier financial daily. It classifies the world market by regions. We can find out what happens in the world during the day and it can help us to make decision how the price of crops will change.

http://www.brecorder.com/

I’m planning to long or short for wheat and corn next week so I’m planning to get some information about them.

Corn is widely cultivated in US and China. Corn is used to feed livestock, made ethanol and consumed as food to human. US is the largest corn producer all over the world. The price of corn went down last week because of US harvest pressure and a wave of fund long-liquidation. However, Asian buyers such as South Korea’s largest feed maker Nonghyup Feed is looking to buy 140,000 tonnes of corn. The pace of US corn harvest is likely to slowdown in the central and eastern Midwest due to light rains. Most important, due to the severe drought in US, the production of corn will decrease and the price of corn will go up. I believe the price of corn will go down, but not too much.

I believe wheat price will continue to rise next week. First, South Korea feed maker Nonghyup and feed millers in Philippines are looking to buy 70,000 tones and 60,000 tonnes of feed wheat. What’s worse, Russia is going to restrict grain exports due to the high domestic price. This will makes wheat price higher.

References

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/80946-cbot-corn-up-on-end-week-positioning-dn-42pc-for-week-.html

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/80945-cbot-wheat-up-22pc-supported-by-talk-of-russian-export-cuts-.html

On Sep 17, 2012, I went long on wheat (W4U). The price in 787.00 and today’s price is 797.75. I gain $537.50. I believed that the price of wheat will go up and I based my decision on several reasons.

First, the government of United States announced that it will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed debt per month as an aggressive stimulus program to boosted investor appetite for riskier assets.

Second, USAD said on last Thursday that weekly export of wheat were 381,800 tonnes, below forecasts for 450,000 to 600,000 tonnes. The wheat export sales were 573,400 tonnes. That’s because the supply of wheat is decreasing.

Third, Strong winds in western Canada damaged wheat in Saskatchewan and Alberta, causing significant yield losses. This will cause wheat price all the way up.

Fourth, because of the severe drought in America, the production of wheat decreased significantly. As the biggest wheat exporter in the world, the decrease of wheat production will push the price up in the world market.

However, this is only my prediction of long trend. I can’t decide what will exactly happen in the future markets. So, I only bought one contract in the wheat market. I believe that only collect information frequently can us always predict right.

Reference:

http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?navid=DISASTER_ASSISTANCE&parentnav=DISASTER_SAFETY

http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/79257-cbot-wheat-corn-and-soybeans-end-higher-after-fed-stimulus-plan-.html

First of all, building Northern Gateway pipeline will lose existing jobs. Asian countries, especially China, pay a little bit more for crude oil. Because the pipeline can reduce the Asian premium, everyone else buy oil from Alberta will pay more for the oil. A large amount of oil is exported and the there are less oil for sell in Canada. That makes oil in Canada becomes nore expensive, Canadian consumers will pay more while companies will pay more for energy. So the product cost of refinement will rise too. Once the Northern Gateway pipeline is built, the activity and capacity for North American market including Canadian refineries will reduce 5% in the first few years and it will get worse over time. 8000 Canadians will lose their jobs and the Canadian GDP will reduce 750 million dollars.

Besides, if Canadian companies can refine crude bitumen instead of export crude bitumen directly, they can earn more. In fact, because of the high price of oil, many Canadian refinery companies have to shut down. Canada has to export crude bitumen with lower price and other countries will refine them and then sell them back to Canada with higher price. If Canadian companies refine bitumen themselves, the price of bitumen will be lower and there will be more jobs created in Canada.

So, if the Northern Gateway pipeline is built, totally, more jobs will be lost. Once the Northern Gateway pipeline is built, because of the reduction of activity and capacity of Canadian industry and Asian premium, the price of oil will rise.