1.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/92107-cbot-wheat-ends-up-on-weak-dollar-us-export-data-.html

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade crept higher for a fourth straight session on Friday, supported by a weaker US dollar and higher-than-expected weekly US wheat export sales, traders said.

2.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/92106-grains-week-ahead-corn-closing-the-gap-on-soybeans-.html

US corn prices are faring relatively better than those for soybeans, with the gap between the two narrowing from the widest in more than four years in September to just nine months now. And expectations are for corn to continue closing the spread with soybeans as export demand picks up due to shrinking supplies of corn in South America and feed wheat in Europe.

3.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/92011-argentina-201213-soy-area-seen-1935mn-hectares-govt-.html

Argentina’s 2012/13 soybean planting area is expected to be 19.35 million hectares, the Agriculture Ministry said in its monthly crop report on Thursday, leaving its previous forecast for the season unchanged. The Argentine government says the country can produce 55 million to 58 million tonnes of soybeans this crop year if the weather cooperates.

4.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/92107-cbot-wheat-ends-up-on-weak-dollar-us-export-data-.html

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade crept higher for a fourth straight session on Friday, supported by a weaker US dollar and higher-than-expected weekly US wheat export sales, traders said. CBOT grain trade closed two hours early because of the US Thanksgiving holiday weekend. CBOT December options expired at the close, with moderate open interest at the $8.50 strike helping to keep front-month wheat futures from falling very far below that level.

Next week, instead of wheat, I’m going to pay more attention on soybean and corn.

First, let’s look at some news about soybean from USDA report. USDA reported export sales of US soybeans in the latest week at 543,600 tonnes, within a range of trade estimates for 400,000 to 650,000 tonnes. USDA pegged weekly US soymeal sales at 197,800 tonnes, slightly below a range of trade estimates for 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes. USDA reported weekly US soyoil sales at 124,000 tonnes, well above a range of trade estimates for 50,000 to 70,000 tonnes. USDA through its daily reporting system on Friday confirmed sales of 20,000 tonnes of US soyoil to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery. As we can see from above, the price of soybean may increase because of the increasing demand.

Now, let’s look at corn. The point was underscored in the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture on Friday. Corn sales totaled 958,600 tonnes, the highest in about 10 weeks. And Japan, the world’s largest importer of corn that has been buying cheaper feed from alternative sources, bought 646,500 tonnes of corn from the United States last week — the largest weekly purchase in nearly two years. Months of incessant rains in Argentina, the world’s No 2 corn exporter after the United States, have delayed the seeding of the crop, leading the country’s government to revise down the planted area to 4.7 million hectares from 4.97 million. These news show that corn price may increase too. Due to less supply and more demand.

Strategy for next week, go long on soybean and corn.

Last week, my Equity is 33867.67. I went long on wheat 2 weeks ago and I’m still losing money. Now, I’m afraid that I can’t win that part of money back although last week, the wheat price did increase a little. Now, let’s see what happened last week.

Argentina’s government cut this season’s wheat output forecast, citing three months of heavy rains that started in August and flooded key parts of the Pampas farm belt, the Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday. The South American grains powerhouse is seen producing 11.1 million tonnes of wheat in the 2012/13 crop year, down from the government’s previous forecast of 11.5 million tonnes, the ministry said in its monthly crop report. Due to this news, the price of wheat may increase since there will be less wheat supply in Argentina

USDA reported export sales of US wheat in the latest week at 657,500 tonnes (635,500 for 2012/13), above a range of trade estimates for 200,000 to 400,000 tonnes. The increasing demand will also push the price up. At the same time, Ukraine’s grain traders are ready to halt milling wheat exports on an informal basis as they approach a critical limit, in order to protect the domestic market after a poor harvest, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. This will also push the price up. As we can see, with less supply and more demand, the price did increase last week.

1.http://www.agweb.com/article/u.s._corn_and_soybean_production_forecasts_are_larger_than_expected/

U.S. Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts Are Larger Than Expected. Today, the USDA released new forecasts of U.S. and world crop production as well as updated forecasts of 2012-13 marketing year consumption. Following is a brief summary of the new forecasts and implications for corn, soybean, and wheat prices.

2. http://www.agweb.com/article/coverage_analysis_of_the_nov_9_usda_reports/

Coverage, Analysis of the Nov. 9 USDA Reports. See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

3.http://www.agweb.com/article/demand_gnaws_at_higher_than_expected_soybean_production/

Demand Gnaws at Higher-Than-Expected Soybean Production. Many U.S. producers likely will be worried about the soybean situation coming off of Friday’s USDA production estimates, says Kevin Van Trump, owner of Farm Direction. While the government raised production unexpectedly high—up 1.5 bushels from last month to an average yield of 39.3 bushels per acre–most of those gains were chewed up by demand.

4.http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/89849-us-soy-crop-up-4pc-supply-strain-eases-.html

US soy crop up 4pc, supply strain eases. WASHINGTON: The US soybean crop is much larger than expected, thanks to late-season rains that blunted the impact of the worst drought in half a century, and the corn crop also is marginally larger, the government said on Friday.

I believe that next week, wheat price will still go up. The most important reason is still the point that the harvest is coming to an end. There are some other reasons too.

First of all, the market’s focus remained on wheat as expectations of smaller crops in places like Argentina and Australia, coupled with dry conditions in key growing areas of the US Plains, provided support to a commodity that has been stuck in a narrow trading range for months. The supply is decreasing. The price will go up.

Secondly, “Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska are dry and global wheat stocks are falling. At some point this winter wheat business is going to shift back to the US. That time is getting pretty close,” a wheat trader on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade said. USDA also was seen cutting its global wheat stocks forecast for the second month in a row due to weather-related problems in key growing areas such as Ukraine, Australia and Argentina.

Thirdly, Australia, the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, is expecting a much smaller crop this year, with early harvest showing lower protein scales and poor yields. Traders said rains forecast over the nation’s east coast could slow the harvest. Asia’s top buyers, who rely on Australia for the bulk of their milling wheat supplies, may be forced to import larger volumes of high-protein spring wheat from the United States and Canada. This will also rise the wheat price.

The strategy for next week is really easy. I will go long for two contracts. I believe the price will rise a lot next week.

This week, my equity is $40429.86. I went long on wheat last week and I’m glad to find out that the price of wheat was rising in most of time last week. Although the price went down on Friday, I do believe it will go up in the future. Now, let’s find out why the wheat price went down last week.

Why the price went down on Friday? Well, the reason is that USDA Raises Corn, Soybean Production Estimates. Corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, up slightly from the October forecast but down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the United States since 2006. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 122.3 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from the October forecast but 24.9 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast and up 4 percent from 2011.This estimate will decrease the corn price. As we know, wheat and Corn can substitute to each other. If the price of corn went down, the price of wheat will go down too.

As we can see, USDA report can affect the future price easily. So, it is important to pay more attention on USDA report.

1. http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/89177-soybeans-drop-pull-corn-lower-while-wheat-steadies-.html

How will the price of wheat, corn and soy beans can affect each other? How will the bad weather in South America affect the whole world price? This article shows us all the information we need and we can learn how to analyze ourselves.

2. http://www.brecorder.com/markets/commodities/america/88774-speculators-cut-cbot-corn-longs-by-21-percent-cftc-.html

Large speculators made the biggest cut to their bullish bet on corn futures in nearly a year as anemic global demand for US supplies weighed on prices, regulatory data issued on Friday showed.

3. http://www.agweb.com/article/drought_makes_wheat_attractive_for_feed/

This article talks about Wheat Feeding Decision. The decision to use any grain, including wheat, in feeding livestock is a complex management decision. Energy and nutritional needs in a balanced feed ration are specific to both the animal species and the type of animal within a species. Moreover, changing the mix of wheat in a ration during a feeding cycle can materially reduce feeding efficiency. Hence, livestock feeders want to be relatively certain that not only is wheat a cheaper source of feed now but will remain so throughout the feeding cycle. In other words, the decision to feed wheat is more of a longer-term strategic decision than a short-term tactical decision. This may partially explain why the share of wheat that is fed is positively and statistically significantly correlated in adjoining years: +0.42. Thus, high wheat feeding in one year is likely to be followed by high wheat feeding next year.

Next week, I’m still going to focus on wheat. As we know, as the harvest of wheat is coming to an end, the trend of wheat price is increasing. However, there are still some news can affect the price of wheat in short run. I believe the price will go up in long run, but may be affected by other news in short run.

First of all, price of corn fell last week, pressured by the drop in soybeans, while wheat was up slightly, but well below its daily highs due to a round of profit taking. Concerns about tightening global supplies due to adverse weather conditions in key growing areas supported wheat. Wheat fell 4.2 percent in October, its biggest monthly decline since November 2011, which has sparked some bargain buying on dips in recent days. Based on the information above, I believe the price of wheat will go up soon.

Another news about wheat is that In its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA increased the estimated feeding of wheat during the current 2012/13 wheat crop year by 95 million bushels to 315 million bushels. USDA currently projects that the feeding of wheat will account for 12.7% of total projected use of U.S. wheat during the 2012 wheat crop year. This exceeds the average share of 9.1% and is the highest share since the 2000 wheat crop year. The increasing demand of wheat will certainly rise the price of wheat. It is obvious that the price of wheat will go up in long run.

The strategy of this week is that go long on wheat and offset weeks later. I hope I can earn a lot this week!

This week, my equity is $41557.20. I earned 3197 dollars last week. I offset my long contract because I want to “put” the money into my pocket. So, what went right? Well, I believe there are three major reasons that kept the price up last week.

First of all, Hurricane Sandy attacked the east coast of America last week. As we know, Sandy is a very severe disaster that caused severe floods in many cities. The Hurricane affected the transportation of wheat and it reduced the harvest of crop. There were more wheat needed and the transport of wheat is inconvenient.

Secondly, even with recent weather disruptions, U.S. farmers still made harvest progress this week. According to this week’s USDA Crop Progress and Condition Ratings, of the 18 key corn-growing states, only Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania have not reach 70% complete. South Dakota has reached the finish line in corn harvest, an impressive feat since normally they only have 47% harvested by this point in the season. As harvest is coming to an end , the price of crop will increase as time goes by.

Thirdly, a Libyan state grain buying agency tendered to buy 30,000 tonnes of milling wheat, 15,000 tonnes of corn and 10,000 tonnes of barley for delivery in November, European traders said. The bidding deadline is Nov. 6. The demand is rising so the price will rise too. Russia’s 2012 wheat crop will be just over 37 million tonnes, lagging official estimates by 6 percent, analysts said. The supply is decreasing so it will also increase the price.