Transparencia announced this evening that the race for the second spot in the presidential election is too close to call. Speaking on behalf of the non-governmental organization, Pepi Patron said that the public will only know the final result when all the votes are counted and she appealed to all parties for calm and patience.
In the past, Transparencia’s results have been within 0.1 and 0.2 percent of the final result. Even with a very low margin of error, the results at 11 pm were too close for the NGO to declare who would be in the second round with Ollanta Humala.
For now, the results are:
Ollanta Humala: 29.85%
Lourdes Flores: 24.42%
Alan Garcia: 24.27%
However, this result does not provide certainty that Lourdes Flores will be in the second round. A different estimation technique, in which the various departments of Peru are weighed according to their electoral size, yields a district result:
Ollanta Humala: 30.32%
Lourdes Flores: 23.5%
Alan Garcia: 24.20%
Rafael Roncagliolo explained that Transparencia’s methodology involves inputing data until the outcome is stable. In this case, additional data will not significantly vary the result, and the margin of difference is still extremely small. In short, the quick count can only confirm two things: there will be a second round, and Ollanta Humala will be in the second round.
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5 replies on “11:25 pm: Transparencia Quick Count”
No se dice lo que dijo la Sra. de Transparencia: Que este resultado no es confiable ya que considerando la ponderación real de las circunscripciones el resultado variaría a: Alan 24.4% y Lourdes 23.8%. Así que deben decir toda la verdad.
I am surprised Alan Garcia can capture almost 25% of the vote. I think that anyway Flores is going to make i into the second round.
However she needs to change her strategy in the 2nd round if she wants to win. Appealing to gender will not be enough to beat Humala.
I would like to be added to the long list of your readers who commend you for your timely and responsible coverage of this election. We owe you a debt of gratitude for your superb efforts to keep us truly up to the minute and broadly informed.
My coments is going to be very short:
For my surprise in the Peru Elections 2006…it have been very sad, and with allot of embarrasment…to see the way this canditates manages to express them self with no manners or with the educacion skills that they suppost to have….definately is a very,very dirty war and I was a shame to see how peruviam people act or behave themself in this elections.
The only thing that they portray is the lack of intelectual,morals,spiritual means, and mostos all the dishonesty that the people of Peru is showing to the whole world. “Shame and Embarrassments as a Nationts” No wonder! why South America Continent is not respected by the others Nations!!
Desafortunadamente Hay un dicho enter peruanos que “tienes que ser vivo!” Pienso que es una necesidad para la gente en terminos de sobrevivir pero en la politica es otra cosa.