Peru Election 2006

Ollanta Humala 30.88%
Alan García 24.57%
Lourdes Flores 23.44%

NOTE: ONPE’s website is providing more up-to-date information
Peru Election: Race To The Finish Line
Voto fuera (2)

5:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 85.34% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.87%
Alan García 24.65%
Lourdes Flores 23.52%
4:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.938% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.866%
Alan García 24.681%
Lourdes Flores 23.591%
2:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.54% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.85%
Alan García 24.70%
Lourdes Flores 23.60%
1:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.41% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.85%
Alan García 24.70%
Lourdes Flores 23.59%
12:10 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.30% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.86%
Alan García 24.69%
Lourdes Flores 23.60%
11:20 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 84.17% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.86%
Alan García 24.79%
Lourdes Flores 23.61%
10:20 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.96% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.84%
Alan García 24.70%
Lourdes Flores 23.63%
09:30 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.87% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.82%
Alan García 24.71%
Lourdes Flores 23.64%
09:00 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.52% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.85%
Alan García 24.62%
Lourdes Flores 23.70%
Martha Chavez 7.06%
Valentin Paniagua 5.80%
07:00 A.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 83.42% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.84%
Alan García 24.62%
Lourdes Flores 23.71%

Las impugnaciones pueden definir segunda vuelta y postergarla
Correo, 11 de abril del 2006
Los expertos en temas electorales Fernando Tuesta, de la Universidad Católica, y Percy Medina, de Transparencia, afirmaron que ante el estrecho margen que separa a Alan García (APRA) de Lourdes Flores (UN) los “votos impugnados” podrían definir el pase a segunda vuelta y “retrasar” la fecha de ésta.
Tuesta señaló que aún no se puede hablar de triunfos, pues un acta impugnada puede contener –por ejemplo– 150 votos, que, ante la proximidad que hay entre los competidores, pueden definir quién pasa a competir con Ollanta Humala.
“Espero que los Jurados Electorales Especiales, que son los que resuelven impugnaciones, actúen con celeridad. Estamos en una situación límite de incertidumbre que el país no merece. Y es posible que se deba esperar al 100% para definir la elección”, señaló.
Por su parte, Medina coincidió con Tuesta en la importancia que adquieren las impugnaciones, y además señaló que éstas pueden “retrasar eventualmente” la segunda vuelta, posiblemente hasta fines de mayo o las primeras semanas de junio.
“La segunda vuelta debe convocarse luego de la proclama total de votos de la elección por el JNE”, explicó.
De otro lado, Medina explicó que una elección general, según nuestras leyes, puede ser anulada totalmente si es que la suma de votos blancos y viciados llega a los dos tercios del total. Sin embargo, precisó que en esta justa electoral no se ha llegado a tal grado “ni por asomo”. Los expertos en temas electorales Fernando Tuesta, de la Universidad Católica, y Percy Medina, de Transparencia, afirmaron que ante el estrecho margen que separa a Alan García (APRA) de Lourdes Flores (UN) los “votos impugnados” podrían definir el pase a segunda vuelta y “retrasar” la fecha de ésta.
Tuesta señaló que aún no se puede hablar de triunfos, pues un acta impugnada puede contener –por ejemplo– 150 votos, que, ante la proximidad que hay entre los competidores, pueden definir quién pasa a competir con Ollanta Humala.
“Espero que los Jurados Electorales Especiales, que son los que resuelven impugnaciones, actúen con celeridad. Estamos en una situación límite de incertidumbre que el país no merece. Y es posible que se deba esperar al 100% para definir la elección”, señaló.
Por su parte, Medina coincidió con Tuesta en la importancia que adquieren las impugnaciones, y además señaló que éstas pueden “retrasar eventualmente” la segunda vuelta, posiblemente hasta fines de mayo o las primeras semanas de junio.
“La segunda vuelta debe convocarse luego de la proclama total de votos de la elección por el JNE”, explicó.
De otro lado, Medina explicó que una elección general, según nuestras leyes, puede ser anulada totalmente si es que la suma de votos blancos y viciados llega a los dos tercios del total. Sin embargo, precisó que en esta justa electoral no se ha llegado a tal grado “ni por asomo”.
Rici
Fruit & Votes
Flores might still make it, but it seems unlikely. The preliminary results are slightly biased by the fact that the last ballots to be counted will be those cast outside of Peru. The exterior vote makes up 2.8% of Peru’s voting population, and is heavily biased towards the right.
It should be noted that rather more than 2.8% of Peruvians live outside of Peru. However, many of those are “undocumented” and are reluctant to register with the Peruvian embassy. (Some do, though, and there is no evidence I know of that the information is leaked. However, it’s easy to understand the reluctance.) On the other hand, Peruvian law does not allow mail-in or proxy votes, so in order to vote you have to physically present yourself at a polling booth; this might be quite a distance. So the turnout is generally lower in the exterior than it is in Peru.
Voting is mandatory in Peru; you are fined if you don’t vote. So the turnout is higher than it would otherwise be.
Having said all that, my back-of-the-envelope computation indicates that García will win by something like 30,000 votes (0.2%).
Another point of information: the 2001 election was between an outsider, Alejandro Toledo, running on a platform of opposition to traditional politics. In fact, running in opposition to traditional politics is pretty well a tradition in Peru. In any event, the other two protagonists were the same, and the results were somewhat similar: Toledo received 36.5% of the vote, García 25.8% and Flores 24.3%.
At the time, Toledo was trying his best to look left wing, although I couldn’t help noticing that his CV was not exactly consistent with that: he’s an economist who has been a consultant for the World Bank, for example. He also played the “poor boy from Cabana” card to the hilt. Of course, it’s true: he did grow up in unimaginable poverty. Humala grew up in a middle-class family. Both of them live in very nice parts of Lima. But that’s all beside the point.
So, in the second round in 2001, Toledo edged García out by 53% to 47%. However, he was starting with a rather larger base than Humala. My guess is that unless something particularly outrageous happens in the next few weeks, García will edge Humala out by roughly the same 53-47 majority. If I were a professional political analyst I might be less shy about making a prediction about a Peruvian election.
Pre-election polls showed Humala beating García in a hypothetical second round, and Flores beating Humala; in both cases, the margins were slim. But that actually seems unlikely to me. It is very difficult, perhaps impossible, for the right to win a fair election in Perú.
Of course, Toledo managed it, but his popularity plunged so fast he must have had nosebleeds; his party, such as it is, has been completely devastated in this election. And that despite the fact that he managed to do exactly what he said he would do — reading between the lines — that is, implement a successful neoliberal program which kept Perú’s macroeconomy steadily growing. The problem is that the macroeconomic success was actually counter-productive: if you’re poor and you know some people are getting richer, you are much more inclined to notice that you are not yourself getting less poor.
Flores is just not in a position to tap into that resentment. Toledo could, and so could Fujimori, because both of them are visibly not part of the establishment (whether or not they are actually part of the establishment). So Flores (somewhat like Vargas Llosa in 1990) finds that the more she presents herself in public, the less support she has; her vote slipped steadily in the polls during the election campaign.
Flores does have one thing going for her: the gender gap. Polling shows an enormous gender gap between Flores and Humala, and I think that is what was driving the hypothetical second-round victory for her. However, by voting day the gap had diminished somewhat, and it probably wouldn’t resist another six weeks of campaigning. For one thing, Humala now has a caucus. By my count, 14 of Humala’s predicted 45 seats were won by women. That’s 13 out of 39 seats outside of Lima. By contrast, UN seems to have elected four women, two from Lima and two outside.
An even more interesting hypothetical question is: how well would Fujimori have done had he managed to get onto the ballot? His daughter Keiko will receive far and away the highest preferential vote in Lima (she has more than 80% of her party’s vote). But I don’t feel like going down that road…
I haven’t reverified my congressional calculation, but I did put names to the seats, and it seems like there will be 34 women elected, 11 in Lima (of 35) and 23 in the rest of the country (of 85). We’ll see in a week or two how close I came.
Seed planted by Rici — 11 April, 2006 @ 19:04