Congressional vote update
Rici kindly offers the following update on the congressional vote count:
As the revision of congressional votes continues, there has been a general trend of slight increases in UPP votes in strong UPP districts. Interestingly, over the last month the total popular vote for all parties has remained virtually the same, but the number of seats allocated to UPP has continued to increase. As of Saturday May 20 (the last ONPE webpage update), the congressional standings are:
UPP: 45
Apra: 36
Unidad Nacional: 17
Alianza por el Futuro: 12
Frente de Centro: 5
Restauración Nacional: 3
Perú Posible: 2
Since my last update, that represents a gain by UPP of one seat from Apra (in Cusco) and a gain by RN of one seat from AF (in Lima).
Both of these contests are very close, and it is possible that they will change again. Cusco is at 89% of polls counted, and Lima is at 77%. In all, counting is finished in 18 of the 25 districts, but slight changes are still possible as a result of appeals.
RN’s popular vote is currently 3.988% and PP’s is currently 3.978%. However, the bulk of the uncounted votes are in Lima, where RN is polling at 4.8% and PP at 6.9%, so I’m pretty confident that both of them will make it over the quota. However, it will be tight, particularly in the case of RN.
In addition to the two districts where the overall outcome is still in doubt, there are a couple of quite close preferential counts. The closest of these is in Piura, where UPP won two seats; the second and third place preferential vote winners for UPP differ by only 6 votes (out of about 14,000). While Piura is theoretically at 100%, I suppose it is still possible that there are outstanding appeals, and a single polling station’s results could alter the order of preferential votes.
There are also quite close preferential races for the only Apra congressional seat in Junin, and for the fifth Apra congressional seat in La Libertad.
If the results stand as they are at present, there will be 35 women in the new congress, by my count, which is just under 30%. That might be a bit disappointing (it is lower than the percentage of women candidates), but it is a lot more than the current congress (or any previous congress), and in my opinion illustrates the importance of open-list preferential voting.
It is also interesting to note that UPP will have congresistas from 24 of the 25 districts, while Apra will represent 20 of the 25 districts. Unidad Nacional only managed to elect congresistas in 10 districts.