Financial Times: Bush administration and its Unlikely Ally

Bush administration crosses fingers for García victory
By Hal Weitzman in Lima
Financial Times, June 1 2006 00:07
It was billed as a clash of the titans. On one side were Hugo Chávez, the fiery Venezuelan president, and his protégé Evo Morales, the Bolivian leader, who a few days earlier had announced the nationalisation of his country’s gas sector. On the other side were Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Néstor Kirchner, the more moderate left-leaning presidents of Brazil and Argentina, the countries most affected by Bolivia’s move.
But the expected confrontation at a summit on the issue last month ended in a round of back-slapping and an endorsement of Mr Morales’s move.
It was an example of how the region’s leaders have failed to challenge Mr Chávez and his allies – to the irritation of the US, the main target of the Venezuelan leader’s outbursts. But if Alan García proves the opinion polls right by winning the presidential elections in Peru on Sunday, the Bush administration may find itself with an unlikely regional ally – at least when it comes to firing verbal barbs back at Caracas.
Mr Chávez has weighed in heavily in Peru’s election, coming out strongly in favour of Ollanta Humala, the radical nationalist candidate, and attacking Mr García as a “swine” and “scoundrel” known for his “stealing and demagoguery”.
In April, Peru withdrew its ambassador to Caracas in protest at the Venezuelan leader’s interference.
Mr García has worked hard to keep Mr Chávez involved, a tactic that has helped to divert attention from his record as Peru’s president between 1985 and 1990, when the economy collapsed and a guerrilla campaign by the Maoist Shining Path gained ground.
Barely a day has gone by in which Mr García has not lashed out at the Venezuelan leader, whom he calls a “dictator” who acts like a “Caribbean petty king”.
That may be sweet music to the White House. “Washington complains that South American leaders who don’t like Chávez say so privately but not publicly,” says Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank in Washington. “[Colombian President Alvaro] Uribe’s been sur-prisingly restrained, Lula’s been restrained. But García has few qualms about standing up to Chávez.”
Without outspoken allies in Latin America, the US has felt forced to respond to Mr Chávez’s barbs. Last month, President George W. Bush said he was “concerned about the erosion of democracy” in Venezuela and Bolivia.
Mr García’s attacks on the Venezuelan leader have been largely aimed at boosting his own popularity, prompted by polls that show about 70 per cent of Peruvians reject Mr Chávez’s attempts to influence the election. Mr García also has a long-standing personal resentment: in 1992 Mr Chávez, then an army officer, launch-ed a failed coup against Carlos Andrés Pérez, the populist Venezuelan president and ally of Mr García.
Mr García may also sniff an opportunity to project himself on to the world stage as a left-of-centre alternative. “There’s definitely some ideological space there that Alan could move into,” says Luis Benavente of the University of Lima.
Daniel Kerner, a political risk consultant at the Eurasia group in New York, says Mr García may well be tempted to regain the stature he enjoyed in the early days of his first presidency. “García tries to present himself as a regional figure to earn some points with international leaders,” he says.
But it would be stretching matters to see Mr García as the new best US friend in the region. He won continent-wide acclaim in his first stint as president by attempting to nationalise foreign banks and restricting debt payments.
Moreover, his Apra party has a strong tradition of resistance to US influence. “I am anti-imperialist,” he said recently. “I don’t like the American presence in Iraq and I don’t like Chávez’s presence with his oil and his money in Peru.”
Mr García has not lost his populist streak, and his agenda is likely to clash with Washington’s on several issues.
He has attacked the US-sponsored programme to eradicate coca, the raw material for cocaine. He has been at pains to avoid saying he would approve the trade deal Peru recently signed with the US, hinting that he may try to revise it. Taking a cue from Mr Humala, he has also attacked “neo-liberalism” and suggested he would revise some contracts with foreign investors.
“The US would be wise not to depend too much [on] and not to expect too much from García,” says Mr Shifter. “He may stand up to Chávez but he will diverge on other issues. It doesn’t mean that García embraces the US agenda.”
In any case, Mr García’s first task will be not to throw his weight around internationally but to rise above begin to rebuild his disastrous record in Peru.
As Eric Farnsworth of the Council of the Americas in Washington notes: “There is an opportunity there to play a more international role, but . . . in order for a President García to do so, he’ll have to show that he can govern at home first.”