Brace yourself for May 5 election: Here’s a little campaign primer

RYAN JACKSON/ EDMONTON JOURNAL FILES

Barring an alien invasion or a zombie apocalypse, Premier Jim Prentice will kick off the provincial election campaign at 10:30 a.m. Tuesday.

Of course, given how most Albertans feel about an early provincial election, you’d probably prefer to find Martians or the undead on your front step rather than a politician.

But the election is coming, and so are the door-knocking candidates, whether you like it or not. Here, to help get you warmed up, is a little primer on what to expect from the campaign trail as the parties get ready for Alberta’s 29th election on May 5.

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES

Goal: To win another majority government. Strengths: The PCs aren’t just incumbents, they’re pretty much fixtures in Alberta politics, having won 12 consecutive majority governments since 1971 (a Canadian record). After a disastrous time under Alison Redford, the PCs managed to turn things around under new leader Jim Prentice. He also helped eviscerate the official Opposition by encouraging 11 Wildrose MLAs, including leader Danielle Smith, to cross to the government late last year.

The PCs have a candidate ready to go in all 87 ridings and they have a huge war chest at the ready, having raised $5.6 million in 2014. Weaknesses: Prentice’s provincial budget raised taxes and cut spending — and has consequently opened the government up to attacks from both sides of the political spectrum either for not cutting enough or for not raising taxes on corporations.

The Wildrose mass floor crossing, though a political coup for Prentice, left a bad odour. Many saw it as a cynical move on the part of Smith and Prentice. Smith paid the price, dumped by PC members in a nomination meeting. Voters might be tempted to lob a rotten egg the premier’s way, figuratively speaking, in the election.

Even though the PCs are doing relatively well, according to public opinion polls, Prentice has personally suffered a drop in popularity. Even though an early election is not illegal, it’s certainly not in the spirit of the province’s election law, which said the election was supposed to be held a year from now.

And a series of bitter PC nomination meetings where candidates were disqualified with little or no reason given has created controversy.

WI LDROS E

Goal: To hang on to official Opposition status. Strengths: The Wildrose party’s new leader, former Fort McMurray-Athabasca Conservative MP Brian Jean, has brought a much-needed boost of optimism and media coverage to the party.

Even though the Wildrose has seen a big drop in donations, it still managed to raise $3 million in 2014. Weaknesses: The most obvious, of course, was having 11 of their 17 MLAs defect to the government last year (and one left to sit as an independent), leaving a shellshocked caucus of five.

Jean, a complete newcomer to provincial politics, has been leader for a little more than a week and has such a steep learning curve ahead of him he should be campaigning with crampons.

The party is also having to rush the nominations of its candidates with the hope of having 87 in place soon.

NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Goal: To finish second and form the official Opposition. Strengths: A dynamic new leader, Rachel Notley, has injected enthusiasm into the NDP while introducing a measure of uncertainty, and thus excitement, into provincial politics.

The NDP is doing well in opinion polls, particularly in Edmonton, which could see it depose the Wildrose as the second-largest party in the legislature. The NDP was official Opposition from 1986 to 1993 and Notley is hoping to recapture that crown.

The NDP has candidates in all 87 ridings and raised a record $1 million last year. Weaknesses: The NDP’s strength is centred in the capital city, with pockets of support in Calgary and Lethbridge. Though the party has 87 candidates, it is seen by much of the province as too left-y and too Edmonton-y.

The NDP is hoping for votesplitting between the PCs and Wildrose, allowing a few extra NDP candidates to slip up the middle. That might not happen if the Wildrose fails to field a full team.

LIBERALS

Goal: To survive as a functioning party. Strengths: It is hard to think of any, seriously. The party has two well-respected and longtime incumbents: Laurie Blakeman in EdmontonCentre and David Swann in Calgary-Mountain View. Weaknesses: Where to begin? The Liberal party has no money, little popularity and not enough candidates to call itself a truly provincial party. The Liberal brand, once good for at least 25 per cent of the vote, dropped to nine per cent in the 2012 election — and doesn’t seem to be improving. Given the possibility they could be wiped out as a party, Liberals are probably hoping for an alien invasion or zombie apocalypse — anything but a provincial election. gthomson@ edmontonjournal.com

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