Here is the latest seat count, courtesy of Rici: Download file
Thanks, Rici!
Rici also offers the following observations:
Here’s the results, updated as of today. I’m expecting that UN will continue to advance, and it is not far from a ninth seat. It is also still quite unclear which (if either) of the minor parties will reach the threshold. Both of them are within a few hundred votes of another seat in Lima. So the Lima results are generally susceptible to change. If I were forced to make a hard prediction it would be: UN 9, AF 8, Apra 7, UPP 6, FC 3, PP 2.
Most of the other districts should be stable, although there are quite a few actas which need to be revised by the JEEs, and so we won’t have definitive figures for at least another couple of weeks, I would guess. The ones which are most likely to change (or least likely to remain the same) are:
Callao: There is an off-chance that AF will pick up enough votes to take the second seat away from Apra.
Madre de Dios: If RN doesn’t make the threshold, the seat will go to UPP. It’s just barely possible that that will happen anyway, but they’re far enough apart that I don’t think so.
Loreto: RN thinks it can win a seat there. I’m less certain, but things could change as the revisions come in. If it won a seat, it would probably be from Apra.
Piura: AF could conceivable gain a seat (from Apra).
I believe that PP will make the threshold, but RN seems to be drifting away from it. The last few actas from Lima should tell the complete story; if they do well enough to get two seats in Lima, they will probably also make the threshold. It must be a real nail-biter for them.
2 replies on “Congressional Seat Count”
I believe the distribution of Congress is, if of any, of very little relevance to the regular citizen. The results of the elections suggest that few people paid attention on who were the candidates, considering the preferentail votes results.
Also, the precedent placed by Fujimori will encourage the next president to do the same if Congress is not being submissive, especially when the one done by Fujimori had such a wide popular support, not seen in any other country where this action was attempted.
In addition the sad history of the ‘transfugas’ make this congress distribution a mere mathematical exercise.
My personal experience with Peru congress is not good. Favors and bribes are the modus operandi, and it is assumed that you look for it when you look for a seat. Not that it is any different elsewhere, just to cite Tom DeLAy and Abramson cases recently in the US, but would it be too much that people know their representatives and find a way to really have a voice in their government?
Any way to get ONPE to improve their performance and have more regular reporting? Are they responsive to feedback? The world is watching.