Think you know your own mind inside out? Think again. A recent study done by an international collection of scientists has revealed that evolutionary survival techniques are partly responsible for the decisions that gamblers make when placing bets. The scientists, from McMaster University, the University of Lethbridge, and Liverpool John Moores University, looked at how gamblers made decisions during a series of random events. In accordance with our ancestors’ behaviours pertaining to survival, it was found that the gamblers relied on their past experiences to predict what could happen next.
Courtesy of Antoinetav via Flickr Creative Commons
The researchers conducted two experiments. In the first test, subjects observed two targets being illuminated in random sequence. The researchers then gave them money to bet on which target would become illuminated first. The subjects maintained steady bets regardless of whether they won or lost. But, for each “win”, subjects were more likely to move their bets to the other target for their next wager.
In the second experiment, the same procedure was followed as the first experiment, except that the subjects placed their bets based on a partner’s result. Once again, if the partner correctly guessed a target, the subject was more likely to move on to the next target on their next turn.
These results demonstrate a phenomenon called the Gambler’s Fallacy. Even though there were exactly equal odds between targets for each new trial, a string or pattern of “left targets” illuminating first gives people a strong feeling that a “right target” is long overdue, and is more likely to occur. Many of us have probably fallen victim to the fallacy ourselves; three coin tosses landing on heads, and we are sure that the fourth will be tails! Yet it’s always 50/50.
A coin flip begins the 113th Annual Army-Navy Game. Courtesy of the U.S Army via Wikimedia Creative Commons
This is nothing new. But, the researchers found a relation between the tendency to bet along with the Gambler’s Fallacy, and personal scores of IOR: attentional processes associated with inhibition of return. Simply put, the participants who fell subject to the Gambler’s Fallacy more often were also more quick to respond to the targets in general. This means that evolutionary human traits could be at work when people aren’t even aware of their own betting patterns. Humans have literally evolved to adjust their behavior based on what they experience in the context of their location. But, these automatic processes are still used in artificial environments in which the brain is “tricked” into reacting a certain way, even if the circumstances don’t call for it.
So, before you act, think! You can’t always trust your instincts.
-Chloe Bocker
