Multiple Choice by Clinton Cardozo
I Knew It All Along!
It can be overwhelming when things happen unexpectedly. To cover this ambiguity we will tend to view things, which have already happened as being relatively inevitable and predictable. For example, as it happens for most university students, during one of my final exams this past year I was unsure about many of the questions. I reached a point where I was just writing answers so I did not leave anything blank! After comparing my answers with my classmates I still doubted my answers. However, after I received my A+ grade I thought to myself “I knew I would do great in this course, I had a feeling from the beginning that it would turn out just the way I wanted it to”. It turns out that this feeling was due to hindsight bias. Hindsight bias, sometimes referred to as the “I knew it all along” phenomena, is the tendency to overestimate the ability to foresee or predict an event after learning about its outcome. This phenomenon is among the most common decision traps that have been observed in various fields including medical diagnoses, athletic competition, and political strategy.
There are two factors that advocate for hindsight bias. Firstly, memory can influence our knowledge about an event. Our memory can work in a way such that the outcome comes into our minds more easily than the alternative, making it appear to be more certain. Additionally, the memory of the alternative result fades away over time as you learn the outcome, thus making it more difficult to remember that you were uncertain about the outcome. Secondly, the desire to sort out any inconsistencies in our mind can also influence hindsight bias. Once you have learned an outcome, you will believe it is right even if it is different from what you originally had in mind.
The Seed of an Idea by Kimberly Vohsen
You are now probably thinking why this matters and how it relates to you.
Our thoughts about how an event took place may influence the way that we approach the same event in the future. For example, if you do well on a test that you were unsure about before you saw your grade, you may not spend much time for the next test since you might think that doing well was inevitable. In fact, you may not take valuable lessons that will aid you to succeed in the future exams. Another consequence of hindsight bias is becoming overconfidence ,which may develop as we eagerly want to confirm our beliefs that we already hold.
One way to reduce hindsight bias is to consider the alternative and think about the reasons it happened, this has proven to an effective strategy. Through the aforementioned strategy, a person can raise their awareness of other possible alternatives and develop a plan to tackle any task.
-Shadi Saffari
Reference:
(1) Bernstein, M.D. Atance, C. Meltzoff ,A.N. Loftu, G. R Child Development 2007, 78, 1374 – 1394.
(2) Dewey, R. Cognitive Consistency. http://www.intropsych.com/ch09_motivation/cognitive_consistency.html (accessed 10/6, 2012).
(3) Gunderman, R. B. American Journal of Roentgenology 2009, 192, 561-564.
(4) Roese, N., & Vohs, K Perspectives on Psychological Science 2012, 7, 411-426.
(5) Tae, D. What is Overconfidence Effect in Physcology ?
. http://www.helium.com/items/1871038-overconfidence-effect (accessed 10/6, 2012).
(6) wikipedia Belief. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belief (accessed 10/7, 2012).
(7) wikipedia Memory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory (accessed 10/7, 2012).
Images :
http://www.alligator.org/blogs/lifestyle/poorphilosophy/article_b302fb1c-4627-11e1-8a24-001871e3ce6c.html?mode=image
http://psychology.about.com/od/psychologystudyguides/a/testtips.htm
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