Archive for March, 2006
Gender as a political weapon
Tyler Bridges has written an interesting report on women in politics in Latin America. His story profiles Lourdes Flores and Michelle Bachelet as examples of the growing importance of women in the region’s electoral politics. The topic of gender in politics has become increasingly polemical. On Friday, in a bizarre statement that has been widely repudiated, first lady Eliane Karp suggested that Flores, who is single, should give birth as women do in indigenous communities — without clinics, medical instruments, and risking malaria and other diseases — in order to appreciate the conditions in which indigenous women live.
U. de Lima National Barometer, February 24-26, 2006
Encuesta nacional realizada por el Grupo de Opinión Pública (GOP) de la Universidad de Lima a 2, 251 personas en zonas urbanas y rurales de 25 regiones, 58 provincias y 144 distritos de todo el Perú, con el propósito de obtener información sobre opiniones, hábitos y actitudes de la población electoral del Perú en relación a temas electorales. El trabajo de campo se realizó del viernes 24 al domingo 26 de febrero de este año. Download file
Ollanta Humala’s Superior in Madre Mia Allegedly involved in Extrajudicial Executions
We now know who was Ollanta Humala’s direct superior when he was chief of a military base in Madre Mia in 1992: Benigno Cabrera Pino. Cabrera Pino was also one of the commanders who freed the hostages taken by the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) in the Japanese ambassador’s residence in Lima in December 1996. There were extrajudicial executions in that operation. He was also involved, according to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, in extrajudicial executions in the Huallaga river in 1994.
Meanwhile, a fight has broken out between the Minister of Defense, Marciano Rengifo, who after weeks of stonewalling finally announced that Humala’s military record was vandalized and contains no information on his activities in 1992. Humala claims he has a photocopy of the report for that year, which he threatens to release unless the Minister provides an official copy within 5 days. In response, the Minister alleges it is a crime for a soldier to photocopy his own file.
The Case Against José Luna Gálvez
The candidacy of José Luna Gálvez, of National Unity, has been rejected by the National Election Board because he has charges pending against him for having received money from Vladimiro Montesinos in exchange for joining the government bench in 2000. Lourdes Flores has reportedly not decided whether to go to bat for Luna.
Transparencia and IDEA Forum on Electoral Broadcasting and Access to the Media
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 3, 2006
A working breakfast on “Public Electoral Broadcasting and Access to the Media” was held on Thursday, March 1, 2006, 8:00-9:30 am, sponsored by Transparencia and IDEA. This rapporteur’s report summarizes some of the key issues and conclusions to emerge from the discussion. Participants holding public office (see list below) spoke on a not-for-attribution basis.
Photo: J. Bazo
Access to the media for political candidates has dramatically improved since 2000. Under the government of Alberto Fujimori, much of the mass media—especially network television and the popular press—was corrupted. Voters today have a better chance of getting the accurate and diverse sources of information and opinion they need to cast their ballots than they did under the previous regime.
Under Peru’s 2003 Law of Political Parties, all registered political candidates are guaranteed free airtime on both private and public television. This system is called the “franja electoral”—the electoral strip. According to Fernando Tuesta, the franja electoral is an offspring of the 2000 transition; it emerged from the OAS-sponsored dialogue round tables. According to the law, “from 30 days to two days prior to the general elections, political parties have free access, as established in this law, to the media of radio broadcasting and television, of private property or the state, in an electoral strip” (Article 37, Ley 28094: Ley de Partidos Politicos). The idea was to counter the power of money: unless all candidates were given publicly subsidized time on television, the broadcast media would be monopolized by candidates with deep pockets.
Fernando Tuesta and Percy Medina
Photo: J. Bazo
The Law of Political Parties did not, however, adequately address a key problem: how should the franja electoral be financed? It is not in the spirit of the law for the franja electoral to be a lucrative business for television stations. Informing the public is part of the responsibility of the media as publicly chartered and regulated bodies. When the law was being made, however, there was an energetic lobbying effort by the media, as a result of which the law indicates: “The state will compensate the communications media by means of a proportional reduction in the payment of the toll for the use of the radio-electric and electromagnetic spectrum.” In practice, the media have profited from the franja electoral by charging high rates.
Television stations have established rates that they charge for airtime, but these can often be negotiated. The Peruvian government has little capacity to negotiate with the media over the rates the public must pay for the franja electoral, however, especially in the middle of an election campaign. Whereas the government is obliged by the law to provide broadcasting time to the parties, the media are not obliged to accept a particular rate.
The electoral authorities are already running against the clock. It will be impossible to have the franja electoral ready before about March 17 or 18, at least on network television (Channel 7, owned by the state, has already begun the franja electoral). The reasons for this delay have to do with administrative procedures. For one thing, the funding is not yet in place. A permanent commission in the congress is considering the funding issue. There is a proposal to authorize the use of S/. 20 million that was initially appropriated for the electronic voting system prior to its cancellation. [This has been approved. See update here]. This will probably be reallocated to pay for the franja electoral. The delay could cause disagreements among political candidates over what to do in the week in mid-March when the franja is not in operation.
The franja electoral is, in part, designed to ensure a minimum level of equity in media coverage, and to allow the candidates to say more about their proposals than is possible in brief spots. Taylor Boas noted that the typical 30 second spot does not give candidates enough time to convey much of substance, whereas the franja electoral enables them to develop their proposals in greater depth.
According to Percy Medina, research by Transparencia has found that the media has inadequately performed it responsibility to provide crucial information to voters. Only about 8 percent of the coverage of the election in 54 newspapers throughout Peru between January 10 and February 10 dealt with the candidates’ plans for government.
The media have also been criticized by some of the candidates for not providing equitable coverage to all candidates. With 22 presidential candidates and nearly 3,000 candidates running for congress, the media can hardly be expected to provide equal coverage to all contenders. Moreover, the news media in Peru have always had political biases, as do news organizations everywhere. The media cannot afford to ignore their bottom line, which is closely connected to ratings.
That said, as Luis Nunes stressed, there is, with notable exceptions, a lack of balance in television news coverage. Some daily newspapers do not openly endorse candidates, but provide them with protective shields. In the long run, public trust in the media might be reinforced by a clearer separation between the opinions of the owners of the media and the content of news reporting.
Luis Nunes
Photo: J. Bazo
Participants:
Engelbert Barreto Huamán, JNE
Fabiola Bazo, “Peru Election 2006”
Jorge Bazo, “Peru Election 2006”
Taylor Boas, University of California
Luz María Correa, Canadian Embassy
Maxwell A. Cameron, University of British Columbia
Alfonso Chan, ONPE
Percy Medina, Transparencia
Luis Nunes Bertoldo, NDI
Luis C. Seghelmeble Riera, RENIEC
Fernando Tuesta, La Universidad Católica del Perú
Congressional Candidates Challenging Discrimination in Peru
Fabiola Bazo
March 3, 2006
Susel Paredes, Jana Villayzan and Tito Bracamonte, congressional candidates for the Socialist Party, gathered with a group of friends and supporters in a local chifa on the evening of March 3. Representatives from human rights organizations, academia and the arts joined the candidates, who were feeling boosted by the results of the latest Catholic University national poll. The poll gave the Socialist Party more than 5% of voter intentions; it also found that more than one third of the voters interviewed in Lima would approve of the election of a gay or lesbian candidate for congress.
Susel Paredes, Congresional Candidate
Photo: J. Bazo
Paredes is a long time member of the Socialist Party. She was chosen congressional candidate through internal primaries. To win the internal election she travelled across the country seeking to win the support of labor and grassroots organizations as a lesbian candidate. She was ranked 5th out of 35 candidates.
Tito Bracamonte, Candidate to Andean Parliament and former president of the Homosexual Movement of Lima (MOHL)
Photo: J. Bazo
Jana Villayzan, Candidate to Andean Parliament
Photo: J. Bazo
A note on the gathering (in Spanish) can be found at: Diario de Lima Gay
PUCP National Poll Feb. 24-26: Lourdes Flores lost 6% in Lima
Source: La República, 3 de marzo del 2006
En el último sondeo de la Universidad Católica, la candidata de Unidad Nacional aún se mantiene como lider de las preferencias del electorado, pero ha perdido seis puntos en Lima en elación a los votos válidos que siginifica un fuerte revés en sus aspiraciones de llegar a la presidencia, puesto que la capital es uno de sus bastiones electorales. En cuanto a sus contendores más cercanos, Ollanta Humala ganó tres puntos en Lima, obteniendo el 22%, y Alan García dos, para llegar al 14%. Algo que había sorprendido en la encuesta de Idice se presenta en este sondeo en el interior del país, donde Flores tiene el 29% y Ollanta Humala la empata con el 28%, mientras que Alan García se mantiene a la expectativa con el 20%. Los dos últimos captan mayor intención de voto en provincias.
Aprobados 20 millones de soles para la franja electoral
El Congreso aprobó ayer la autorización a la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) de utilizar 20 millones de soles de su presupuesto para la implementación de la franja electoral en los medios de comunicación no estatales.
Fernando Rospigliosi: Candidatos “chicos” no tienen opción
Para los analistas políticos Fernando Rospigliosi, Alfredo Torres y Manuel Saavedra, la distancia que existe entre Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala y Alan García con el resto de los aspirantes es tan marcada que ninguno de los llamados candidatos “chicos”, de Valentín Paniagua hacia abajo, puede remontarla en circunstancias normales. La eventual segunda vuelta se definirá entre dos de estos tres candidatos.
Enrique Bernales on electoral process
Apogeo y crisis de Fernando Olivera
David Hidalgo Vega, periodista de El Comercio, muestra un perfil de la trayectoria del líder del Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM).
Posible regreso de Fujimori al Perú
El ex presidente Alberto Fujimori estudia la posibilidad de allanarse a la extradición debido a dos poderosos motivos: las negativas del ministro (juez chileno) Orlando Álvarez de otorgarle la libertad o el arresto domiciliario, pero sobretodo, por la ubicación en las encuestas de su candidata presidencial, Martha Chávez. Se piensa que su presencia (aunque detenido), ayudaría a su movimiento a tener una mayor presencia en la contienda electoral.
Who Vandalized the Files on Humala’s Military Record?
The Ministry of Defense, after weeks of stonewalling about Ollanta Humala’s military record, now acknowledges that its files on Humala have been vandalized. The material on the key periods of interest to the public (including 1992 when Humala was in Madre Mia) are gone. Calls for the Minister of Defense Marciano Rengifo’s resignation are intensifying.
Lourdes Flores’ Inner Circle
Here are two excellent reports on Lourdes Flores’ campaign. The first, by Pedro Tenorio of Peru21, focuses on her inner circle, and indicates that Colombian campaign strategist Gloria Isabel Ramirez (aka Glorisa) is the architect of Flores’ strategy of direct contact with the people (walks through shantytowns, trips to the provinces). The second report, by Gustavo Gorriti for La Republica, also focuses on Flores’ key campaign strategists, with more discussion Glorisa as well as Rafael Fernandez Stoll Marchena, another key organizer.
55 Candidates Rejected by National Election Board
55 congressional candidate have been told their papers are not in order; if they want to run for office they must get their documents to the National Election Board in time for an appeal. Candidates who hold public office must show they are on unpaid leave. The JNE decided to require that candidates provide documentation to this effect in a decision published on February 3, only 5 days before the deadline to register. Fernando Tuesta, former director of ONPE, said the JNE is being legalistic and bureaucratic in some cases. Legal paperwork should not override the constitutional right to be elected. The ONPE is worried that the large number of rejections and appeals could result in serious delays, and has called for the JNE to resolve the cases as quickly as possible. ONPE does not want to print the ballots until all the candidates are finalized. Otherwise, candidates could appear on the ballots who are, in effect, ineligible for office. The ballots and accompanying instructional material must be distributed across the country in a timely manner. Ballots are supposed to be finalized on March 15.
Idice National Poll Feb. 24-26 Places Alan Garcia in Technical Tie with Lourdes Flores
Source: La Primera, 2 de marzo del 2006
The latest national poll by Idice, commissioned by the Universidad Garcilaso de la Vega, came up with a surprising result: Lourdes Flores is first with 24.3%, and close behind her is Alan García, with 22.4%. Ollanta Humala is in third place with 19.3%.
These finding should be read with skepticism. There are 94 firms doing opinion polling in Peru, not all have the same track record. APRA has certainly surged, but it is unlikely that García is near first place. These results are out of line with the findings of the Catholic University and CPI.
La última encuesta a nivel nacional de la empresa Idice, por encargo de la Universidad Garcilaso de la Vega, presentó un sorprendente resultado: Primer lugar para Lourdes Flores con 24.3%, y muy cerca suyo Alan García, con 22.4%. Ollanta Humala baja al tercer lugar con 19.3%.
Este trabajo de campo abarcó 21 regiones, 37 provincias y 140 distritos de todo el país. El nivel de confianza es del 95% y el margen de error de +- 4.5%.
Catholic University National Poll Feb.24-26: Trends Holding
The latest poll by the Catholic University finds that Lourdes Flores has maintained the lead with 29% of respondents saying they intend to vote for her, followed by Ollanta Humala with 20% and Alan Garcia with 14%. Paniagua has 6% and Martha Chavez has 4%.
A surprising finding here is that the Socialist Party has 5.5% of the congressional voter intentions according to this poll. UPP is way behind APRA, with 10.8% to 21.1% respectively. Interesting to note that APRA is probably pulling Garcia up in the polls, not vice versa.
La última encuesta nacional realizada por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica (PUCP) confirman la tendencia del electorado en los últimos meses: Lourdes Flores se mantiene sólida en el primer lugar con el 29% de las preferencias, seguida por Ollanta Humala con 20%, Alan García con 14%, Valentín Paniagua con 6% y Martha Chávez con 4%. Es preocupante que a casi un mes de las elecciones exista un 19% que votará en blanco, viciado o que aún no ha decidido su voto.
En cuanto a las encuestas al Congreso el primer lugar de los votos validos esta muy cerrado entre Unidad Nacional (26.1%) y el Apra (21.1%). Alejados se encuentran UPP (10.8%), Frente de Centro (6.6%), Alianza por el Futuro (5.7%), Partido Socialista (5.5%), Perú Posible (5%), aunque todos pasen la valla electoral.
Esta encuesta fue realizada entre el 24 y 26 de febrero por la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP), con un universo de 1,767 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años, electores hábiles de 19 provincias urbanas principales del Perú. El nivel de error y confianza estimado es de +- 2.31%, con un nivel de confianza del 95%.
Descargue la encuesta completa en PDF.
CPI National Poll – February 23-27, 2006: Alan Garcia Approaching Second Place
Poll by Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercados y Opinión Pública S.A.C. an exclusive for Correo. Results based on valid votes:
Lourdes Flores: 34.1%
Ollanta Humala: 25.5%
Alan Garcia: 21.5%
Universe: 2,100 individuals interviewed in 20 Departaments, 99 Provinces and 280 Districts across the country.
Results: Download file
Charts: Download file
El voto escondido lo comparte el APRA con los partidos minoritarios
Source: La República, 2 de marzo del 2006
La encuestadora Idice, aplicando la cédula de votación, ha detectado que el voto escondido lo comparten Alan García del Partido Aprista Peruano, con un 5%, y el grupo de los candidatos de menor arraigo con 8%.
APOYO Poll: Youth Electoral Preferences
Source:La República, March 1, 2006
Nueva Ubicación de los Partidos en Cédula Única
Source: La República, 1 de marzo del 2006
Mediante un sorteo público se decidió la ubicación de los partidos y organizaciones que participarán en el proceso electoral del próximo 9 de abril. 21 organizaciones presentaron lista presidencial y lista al Congreso, y 3 al Parlamento. El Partido Socialista, que lidera Javier Diez Canseco, será el primero en la relación de las organizaciones incluidas en esta cédula electoral que, con un largo de casi 45 cm., será la más extensa de todos los comicios anteriores.
The X-Files of Ollanta Humala
El caso de las presuntas violaciones a los DDHH por parte del comandante(r) Ollanta Humala en la base contrasubversiva de Madre Mía, ha dado un giro inesperado. Ante la denuncia formulada en el programa periodístico La Ventana Indiscreta, el Ministerio de Defensa (Mindef) confirmó la desaparición de parte de su expediente, sustrayéndose los informes de eficiencia de 1992, con una estadía de seis meses en la base de Madre Mía, Tingo María, como responsable del batallón Contrasubversivo Nº 331, asi como los de 1999 en el cuartel militar de Huancayo como miembro de la División de Infantería y del 2002 como agregado militar en Francia.
La documentación que debió ser enviada al Archivo General del Ejército debido a que Humala había pasado al retiro, estaba indebidamente en poder del coronel Luis Pereira Briceño, jefe de la Sección de Administración de la Carrera del Oficial (SACO) de Artillería. El ministro de Defensa, Marciano Rengifo, sostuvo que los “informes de eficiencia” que faltan del expediente del comandante en retiro no confirman si es que este fue el “capitán Carlos”, aunque tendrá que explicar ante el Congreso esta mutilación en el legajo de Humala.