Archive for March, 2006
La República: Military Justice has promoted Impunity in Peru
Pollsters Analyze Ollanta Humala´s Rise
Tras conocerse los resultados de la última encuesta de Apoyo, Manuel Saavedra, Oscar Díaz y Raúl Chamamé señalaron que el crecimiento de Ollanta Humala se debería al voto fujimorista y a la influencia de los ataques de Alan García a Lourdes Flores.
Divisions in National Unity
Jose Barba Caballero has criticized Lourdes Flores and stated that she will not win the general elections in the first round, but will beat Ollanta Humala in the second round.
Catholic University 2004 National Survey on Exclusion & Discrimination
Encuesta Nacional sobre exclusion y discriminacion social. Informe Final de analisis de resultados. Estudio realizado por DEMUS entre agosto y setiembre del 2004.
Universo: 1600 personas en zonas urbanas y rurales de 14 departamentos del Peru. Download file
ONPE inició el viernes impresión de 18 millones de cédulas
Source: La República, 13 de marzo del 2006
La Dra. Magdalena Chú Villanueva, Jefa de la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) confirmó el día viernes pasado el inicio de la impresión de las cédulas de sufragio para un total de 16 millones 494 mil 906 electores que participarán en las elecciones generales del 9 de abril.
No se exigirá uso de tinta indeleble a los electores de zonas de emergencia
La Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), estableció esta disposición especial como medida de seguridad para lograr un voto consciente de los electores en los próximos comicios del 9 de abril.
Juan Carlos Tafur sobre las estrategias finales del APRA y Unidad Nacional
JNE aprueba candidaturas de candidatos que acudirían al Tribunal Constitucional
El viernes pasado Nicolás Lynch (PS), Agustín Haya (PAP), Enrique Cornejo (PAP), Javier Barreda (PAP) y Alejandro Narváez (MNI), habían cuestionado la impugnación a sus postulaciones decidida por el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, alegando que “no se había seguido el debido proceso”, dejando en claro que si el JNE no daba solución a sus reclamos acudirían al Tribunal Constitucional. Tras dos días de deliberaciones, el sábado fueron aprobados Lynch, Dammert y Narváez, mientras que el día de ayer fue el turno de los 3 candidatos por el APRA, Haya, Cornejo y Barreda.
APOYO: Flores and Humala Tied for first Place
Source: La República, 13 de marzo del 2006
Apoyo Opinión y Mercado S.A. trabajó la encuesta para América Televisión. Metodología y técnica: Se aplicó un muestreo probabilístico polietápico estratificado por región de residencia (Lima, Costa Norte, Arequipa y Costa Sur, Sierra Norte, Sierra Centro, Sierra Sur y Selva) y ámbito de residencia (urbano-rural). Tamaño de muestra: 2000 electores hábiles. Fecha de realización: Entre el 8 al 10 de marzo del 2006. Lugares de realización y cobertura: 178 distritos de 113 localidades de 79 provincias de todos los departamentos del país. Nivel de representatividad: En las provincias seleccionadas reside el 81% de la población electoral del Perú. Margen de error: +/- 2.2% asumiendo un nivel de confianza del 95%. Download file
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 12, 2006
The television show “Cuarto Poder” revealed that the latest poll by APOYO gives Flores 31 percent and Humala 30 percent of the decided voters, while Alan Garcia hold third place with 22 percent. This shows a significant jump for Humala, and a continuing slide for Flores.
The poll also showed that in a second round Flores would win 54 percent and Humala would capture 47 percent. This is a much closer result than anything we have seen before in the polls. She does better against Garcia, with 59 percent to 41 percent. In this case too, however, Flores appears to be slipping. In any event, the race is tightening now not only for the first round, but for the second round too.
The congressional results place Apra in the lead with 23 percent of the vote, National Unity next with 20 percent, and UPP with 17 percent.
Rospigliosi and Gorriti: Humala Threatens Peruvian Democracy
Gustavo Gorriti and Fernando Rospigliosi, both prominent commentators and veterans of the struggle for democracy under the authoritarian regime of Alberto Fujimori, call attention in their respective editorials today to the dangers inherent in the candidacy of Ollanta Humala. Rospigliosi focuses on the connections between Humala and his entourage and the mafia controlled by Vladimiro Montesinos in the armed forces, while Gorriti calls Humala an enemy of democracy who could turn out to be worse than Fujimori.
Garcia Calls Flores A Demagogue; Humala calls Legislators “Comechados”
The negative campaigning continues. Alan Garcia has attacked Lourdes Flores, comparing her to Ollanta Humala as a “demagogue.” Humala, for his part, accuses the members of congress who threaten to investigate the matter of his military record as people who eat lying on their backs (comechados).
APRA to take Election Authorities to Constitutional Tribunal
Unless the National Election Board (JNE) backs down, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance is threatening to take the election authorities to the Constitutional Tribunal in protest against the refusal of the JNE to allow a number of its candidates to run for congress.
APRA’s Lawyer, Javier Valle Riestra, argues that the right to be elected is a fundamental human right enshrined in the constitution and international conventions, and it cannot be denied by election authorities based on arbitrary legal resolutions without undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process. A constitutional challenge could mean further delays before the final list of candidates is known.
Meanwhile, the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) insists that the delays caused by the JNE affect its ability to print preparatory material necessary for the election and could mean the inability to get ballots to polling stations abroad. The election can be kept within the electoral calendar only if the JNE finalizes the list of candidates by tomorrow, said Magdalena Chu, the head of ONPE.
Two Columns Discuss Humala-Garcia Runoff
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 11, 2006
Columnist for Peru21, Ricardo Ramos Tremolada, confirms our analysis that Alan Garcia is directing his attacks on Lourdes Flores in the hopes of eliminating her from contention in the first round and competing with Ollanta Humala in the second round. Garcia presumably expects he would do better against Humala than Flores, and that is what the polls say. However Ramos Tremolada suggests a lot of second round voters would rather vote for Humala in a second round, not out of anti-Aprismo but because they dislike Alan Garcia. He concludes that “All indications are that the next president of Peru will be Ollanta Humala.”
Ramos Tremolada reserves some critical comments for Mirko Lauer, who he says supports Alan Garcia. Lauer’s column in La Republica today also speculates about the possibility of an Humala-Garcia runoff. He notes the tendency of Flores to fall in the polls and the rise of Garcia and Humala (I would say Garcia more than Humala, who has been stable around 25 percent for the last few weeks). Flores has responded to these trends, says Lauer, with the announcment of a campaign to defend her vote in polling stations and by targeting the undecided voter. Humala persists in defending himself against media attacks which are favoring him; and Garcia is promoting a climate of entertainment in his campaign, which seems to be working.
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich on the last month of the campaign
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 10, 2006
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich says that while anything is possible in the last 30 days of the campaign, it would be a big surprise if there was not a second round with Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala or Alan Garcia. I agree with Álvarez Rodrich, and would add that the race between the three is tightening.
The top three candidates have 80 percent of the preferences of the decided voters. The spread between them has been cut in half, however, from around 20 percent to about 10 percent, in the past month. Until recently, Lourdes Flores Nano, the candidate for National Unity, has held a strong lead. She has hovered around 30-35 percent throughout most of the campaign, occasionally slipped below 30 percent or rising as high as 37 or 38 percent. In a recent poll, she stood at 33 percent. Meanwhile Ollanta Humala, who emerged from nowhere to take first spot temporarily in mid-January, has settled at around 25 percent of the vote since then. The most marked tendency in the last few weeks has been the rise of Alan Garcia, who now stands close to Humala with about 22 percent of the vote.
JNE continúa eliminando candidatos al Congreso
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) eliminó de la contienda electoral a 5 candidatos del APRA y 6 de la alianza electoral del Frente de Centro. La sorpresa la dió la admisión del conocido cantante de música tropical Abelardo Gutierrez Alanya, más conocido como “Tongo”, de Renacimiento Andino.
UPDATE: On March 12 La Republica reported Dammert was approved to run by the JNE.
¿Cuántos peruanos van a votar el 9 de abril?
Source: El Comercio, 10 de marzo del 2006
ONPE otorgó 430 minutos para franja electoral
Por medio de una resolución publicada hoy en el diario oficial El Peruano, la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), estableció el nuevo tiempo que regirá para los partidos políticos hasta un día antes de los comicios generales del 9 de abril:
– Perú Posible: 65 minutos y 35 segundos (Partido con mayor cantidad de minutos)
– Partido Aprista: 58 minutos y 30 segundos
– Unidad Nacional: 30 minutos y 10 segundos
– Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM): 17 minutos y 76 segundos
– Unión por el Perú (UPP): 14 minutos y 24 segundos
– Demás organizaciones políticas: 12 minutos y 48 segundos.
Asimismo, anunció que el próximo jueves 16 será el día en que se dará inicio a la franja electoral en los medios de comunicación privados.
Álvaro Rojas Samanez sobre los mensajes políticos
Critican la propuesta de Alan Garcia sobre retorno de “Jueces sin Rostro”
Durante un mitin el pasado martes 7 en la plaza Manco Capac en La Victoria, el candidato por el APRA, Alan García manifesto ser partidario frente al terrorismo de los “jueces sin rostro” en un eventual gobierno aprista. Tras ser criticadas inmediatamente por Marcial Ayaipoma, titular del Congreso; Alcides Chamorro, ex titular de la Comisión de Justicia e Ismael Vega, representante de la sección peruana de Amnistía Internacional por considerarlo antidemocrático, un retroceso en los DDHH e Inconstitucional; el dia de ayer se sumó el candidato presidencial del Frente de Centro, Valentín Paniagua, quien manifestó que esta figura no está permitida por la Constitución.
Humala Complains to OAS
Ollanta Humala has complained to the OAS that Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Alejandro Toledo are interfering in the electoral process. He is also complaining that only about 10 percent of the military, who are able to vote for the first time in this election, will actually be able to do so.
ONPE Prints Ballots
Notwithstanding the fact that it has not received from the National Election Board (JNE) a finalized and complete list of candidates, the ONPE has begun to print ballots for the April 9 election. Ballots do not contain the names of congressional candidates, but ONPE has been insisting that it should print the ballots along with the documentation of names of candidates at the same time because this is required by law and is less costly. However, to insist on simultaneous production of the ballots and list of candidates would cause delays and could interfere with the election calendar.
Meanwhile, a number of candidates who have been rejected by the JNE are using the last available appeal procedure. Last night on Prensa Libre, Rosa Maria Palacios interviewed three university professors who have been barred because they did not present documentation showing they are on unpaid leave of absence from San Marcos University–Manuel Dammert, Agustin Haya de la Torre, and Nicolas Lynch. They are arguing that their constitutional right to be elected is being infringed by arbitrary legal roadblocks. Lynch referred to the decision by the JNE as a “fraud.”
In an interview with La Primera, Agustin Haya de la Torre says the JNE is delegitimating the elections, and he threatens to challenge the decision before international organizations.
Humala Reads his Military Service Record from 1992
In a meeting in Ate Vitarte, Ollanta Humala read from the file containing his military service record (or “efficiency report”) in 1992, the same document that has mysteriously disappeared from the Ministry of Defense. He challenged the authorities to arrest him. (The Minister of Defense has said possession of this document is a crime). Humala read words of praise for his service, which suggested he had survived battles and recovered weapons without losing soldiers and was respected by soldiers under his command and by superior officers. Humala also stated that he is “the only candidate” to embrace the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in his plans for government.
Dispute between ONPE and JNE continues
The dispute continues between the ONPE and JNE. ONPE official Carlos Loyola says the time is up for the JNE to provide the complete list of candidates to congress and the Andean Parliament for the April 9 election. There can be no further delays, he said, without putting the electoral calendar at risk, something the JNE dismisses.
IMA National Poll, February 24 – March 2: Flores Retains Lead; Humala & Garcia Compete for Second Place
The second IMA Estudios de Marketing S.A.C. national urban poll confirms a slight decline in Lourdes Flores’ lead, with 26.9% (down from 27.2% in January). Ollanta Humala is in a technical tie for second place with 21.6% (up from 18.7% in January). Alan Garcia makes the largest gain with 20.1% (up from 14.7% in January). The overall conclusion is that the race is tightening. The poll also shows APRA in the lead in the race for congressional seats, followed by UN and UPP.
Universe: 6,400 interviews in 20 cities across the coutnry. Margin of error 1.22%.
Personas discapacitadas postulan al Congreso
Source: La República, 9 de marzo del 2006. Fotos: Marcos Rojas y Christian Salazar
Wilfredo Guzmán Jara del Partido Unión por el Perú (UPP), Víctor Vargas Chávarri, del Partido Socialista (PS), Luis Galarreta, de Unidad Nacional (UN), Luis Alfredo Bravo y Américo Martínez de Resurgimiento Peruano, son 5 candidatos con discapacidad que postulan al Congreso de la República para luchar por la educación inclusiva, la accesibilidad al trabajo, la promoción del empleo y la salud, pero sobretodo, para el fortalecimiento de la Ley General de la Persona con Discapacidad (27050).
Encuesta CPI: 93% de la población pide debate sobre el narcotráfico
Source: La República, 9 de marzo del 2006
Según una encuesta realizada por la Compañía de Estudios de Mercado y Opinión Pública (CPI), de un total de 2,100 entrevistas realizadas a nivel nacional, el 93% opina que el narcotráfico debe ser considerado un tema importante para ser debatido por los candidatos en la campaña política. El 59% considera que ningúno de ellos le ha dado la debida importancia.
Universo investigado: Población urbana y rural, hombres y mujeres en aptitud de votar, pertenecientes a los niveles socioeconómicos alto/medio y bajo/muy bajo. Cobertura geográfica: 20 departamentos, 99 provincias y 290 distritos. Técnica de investigación: Encuesta personal. Muestra: 2.100 entrevistados. Nivel de confianza: 95,5%. Margen de error: +/- 2,2%. Trabajo de campo: Del 23 al 27 de febrero del 2006.
JNE autorizó retorno de 17 candidatos a la contienda electoral
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) continuó con la publicación de las resoluciones en las que declara fundados los recursos de apelación interpuestos contra los fallos del Jurado Electoral Especial Lima Centro (JEE-LC), aprobando el retorno de 17 candidatos, siendo los más conocidos o controversiales los de Daniel Abugattás y Cenaida Uribe (UPP), y Gustavo Pacheco (FIM); mientras que 18 candidatos de las agrupaciones UPP, FIM, Renacimiento Andino, Alianza por el Futuro y Fuerza Democrática quedaron fuera del proceso electoral.
Ideele’s Magazine Survey on Political Parties Priorities
Source: La República, 9 de marzo del 2006
La revista Ideele envió un cuestionario a las distintas agrupaciones políticas que se encuentran en campaña con el objetivo de medir sus prioridades en los aspectos de política y economía, justicia militar, la comisión de la verdad, seguridad ciudadana y los derechos sexuales y reproductivos obteniendo sorprendentes resultados por la ausencia de medidas ante estos importantes aspectos.
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich sobre el último mes de la campaña de Lourdes Flores
Francisco Eguiguren Compares Latest Polls
Coronel EP Luis Pereira Briceño denunciado por desaparición del legajo personal de Ollanta Humala
La Inspectoría General del Ejército denunció ante el Consejo Supremo de Justicia Militar (CSJM) al coronel EP Luis Pereira Briceño y a los que resulten responsables por los presuntos delitos de destrucción de documento militar y desobediencia en el caso del legajo personal de Ollanta Humala.
Peru Election 2006 in the news
ONPE: Ballots Cannot be Printed Until JNE Submits Complete Lists
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 8, 2006
With the election just over a month away, the delays caused by the various legal disputes over who is eligible to run are threatening the electoral calendar.
The National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) insists that it cannot begin to print the ballots for the April 9 election until the National Election Board (JNE) finalizes the list of candidates. The JNE claims that they have sent complete lists for 17 of 25 registered electoral groups, but the ONPE says that this information is neither official (it did not come with the official JNE seal) nor can it be used because the printing presses cannot be stopped and started without adding to the cost of production. The total time it will take to print all the ballots is 15 days. The first set of ballots to be distributed are those that go abroad, and these should be ready to go by March 16.
ONPE points out that there are still potentially legal actions pending. The JNE has eliminated 35 candidates from the various lists. One electoral group–Concertacion Decentralista, led by Susana Villaran–is planning on challenging the decision by the JNE to reject 10 of its congressional candidates. They are preparing to take the issue to the Constitutional Tribunal. One of the eliminated candidates on Villaran’s list is Manuel Dammert, who has held legislative office before. He is a heavy-weight in her slate, and his elimination is a serious blow. He has been eliminated because he did not present documentation that he is on unpaid leave of absence from his teaching job. The law says that public officials have to present evidence they are on unpaid leave, but the JNE is interpreting this to mean universities as well. A spokesperson for Concertacion Decentralista says this is contrary to the law. Moreover, as we have reported previously, the JNE decided to require that candidates provide documentation to this effect in a decision published on February 3, only 5 days before the deadline to register.
The deeper background to this issue is that the ONPE is the body that organizes the elections, and the JNE is the legal authority that resolves disputes arising from the election process. In Peru, these two bodies are separate but have had difficulty coordinating.
For its part, the ONPE is also coming under scrutiny for its apparent inability to enforce party finance rules. 27 of 29 of the nation’s political parties have provided information concerning their financing, and this information will be made public on Friday. The ONPE can use this information to inquire about the sources of funding but it has little enforcement ability. Unless donations come from sources with a legal record, there is little the ONPE can do to verify the accuracy of the information provided by the parties.
Encuesta Imasen: El empleo debe ser tema principal de campaña
Source: La República, 8 de marzo del 2006
Un sondeo realizado por la empresa Imagen dio como resultado que tres cuartas partes de los peruanos priorizan al empleo como tema para elegir a un determinado candidato electoral.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 1,611 personas de 18 a 70 años a nivel nacional. Margen de error de +-2.5% para un nivel de confianza del 95.5%
¿Se puede celebrar el día internacional de la mujer en el Perú?
Source: La Primera, 8 de marzo del 2006
El Día Internacional de la Mujer se celebra desde hace más de ocho décadas. Cada 8 de marzo, mujeres y hombres que trabajan por sus causas, conmemoran a nivel mundial los esfuerzos que las mujeres han realizado por alcanzar la igualdad, la justicia, la paz y el desarrollo, y aunque el Perú no se queda atrás en cuanto a la celebración y toma de conciencia sobre este importante tema, todavía la participación femenina en la vida política, económica y social sigue siendo limitada a nivel de toma de decisiones. Según la última encuesta de la Universidad de Lima, la mayoría de mujeres siente que la sociedad peruana las discrimina porque aún se vive en una sociedad machista. Candidatas a la presidencia, congresistas y la Defensora de la Mujer opinan sobre los escasos logros de la mujer peruana.
Encuesta de la Catolica: 43% de las mujeres votaría por Lourdes Flores
Source: La Primera, 8 de marzo del 2006
Según la encuesta del Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú realizada entre los días 24 y 26 de febrero, el 43% de las mujeres a nivel nacional votaría por Lourdes Flores Nano, mientras que sólo un 29% de los hombres haría lo mismo.
Martha Chávez: Existe una “Encuesta Secreta” del gobierno
Martha Chávez, aspirante a la presidencia de Alianza por el Futuro, afirmó que el gobierno oculta los resultados de una supuesta encuesta que ubica a Ollanta Humala (UPP) en el primer lugar con 21% de intención de voto, seguido por Alan García (APRA) con 20%, desplazando a Lourdes Flores (UN) al tercer lugar con 19%. Chávez se ubicaría en el cuarto lugar con 15%. La candidata fujimorista insistió en acusar de que “el andamiaje del toledismo está puesto al servicio de Humala”.
35 candidatos al Congreso fueron retirados por el JNE
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones ratificó las tachas contra 35 candidatos al congreso con fallos inapelables. Las organizaciones políticas que más bajas sufrieron son Alianza Para el Progreso de Natale Amprimo, con 11 candidatos tachados, y Concertación Descentralista de Susana Villarán, con 10.
Salomón Lerner sobre los DDHH y la agenda electoral
Salomón Lerner, ex presidente de la Comisión de la Verdad y Reconciliación (CVR), conversó con el diario Perú 21 sobre el tema de los DD.HH. en la agenda electoral de los candidatos a las próximas elecciones y su poco esfuerzo por convencer a las masas con propuestas concretas sobre los problemas reales del país.
Social Barometer Lima & Callao, February 28-March 2, 2006: Women & Politics
Survey conducted by the Grupo de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Lima.
Sample: 605 men and women interveiwed in 36 districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Margin of error: +/-4.07% Download file
Catholic University Urban Poll – February 24-26, 2006: Gender & the Elections
Survey conducted by the Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú between February 24-26, 2006.
Sample: 1,767 men and women in 77 districts in 19 urban provinces from 17 departments Download file
Runoff Between Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia?
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 7, 2006
Alan García and Ollanta Humala have little chance of winning in a runoff against Lourdes Flores. All the available polls suggest that Flores dominates all other candidates in a second round. The reason lies in the very low level of negative rating of Flores. Support for Flores has tended to hover around 35 percent of the electorate nation-wide, and higher in Lima. But very few people say they would never vote for Flores, whereas substantial numbers of voters show strong antipathy to both García and Humala.
It may be that the best chance for García and Humala is to seek to eliminate Flores from contention in the first round. In a runoff between García and Humala, the result is anyone’s guess. Luis Benavente, director of the Grupo de Opinión de la Universidad de Lima, predicts that the final stretch of the campaign will almost certainly involve “negative campaigns” against Flores. Indeed, negative campaigning has already begun. Posters and fliers have begun to appear that present Flores as the candidate of the Banco de Credito. UN spokepersons are drawing parallels with the efforts to tarnish the reputation of Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990 by stressing his links with bankers and the wealthy.
Photo: Expreso, March 6, 2006
Lourdes Flores has complained that these attacks are part of a “dirty war” against her. To this, García has responded by saying “APRA has nothing to do with this [dirty war] for one reason: I say directly that UN represents the right, that it carries within its womb representatives of the bankers…this does not have to be done using a black campaign or with posters.”
Not everyone is of the view that García and Humala would prefer a runoff against each other. In a recent editorial, Augusto Alvarez Rodrich sought to decipher the strategies of candidates based upon whom they would most like to face in a runoff. He concluded that Flores would prefer Humala, Humala would prefer Garcia, and Garcia would prefer Flores.
The daily newspaper Correo, however, reports that APRA strategists are looking at a second round with Humala. Said Jorge del Castillo, Garcia’s right hand man: “I see Lourdes falls 5 percent in a recent poll and Garcia rises 4 percent. In five polls the tendency of Alan Garcia is to rise, and that of Flores is to fall. I am sure we are going into the second round. Until recently, I thought it was with Lourdes. Now I put that in doubt.” The possibility of a runoff between Garcia and Humala is still remote, but you can be sure it is being discussed behind closed doors.
Although Flores has proven unable to generate an upward momentum in her campaign, her performance has, thus far, been formidable. Her best strategy is to hold her lead and not make any major mistakes before April 9. At the same time, she should not be over-cautious. The final weeks will be dynamic, and she will need to be able to respond quickly to deflect attacks–especially from Alan Garcia.
Humala rejects US financing and personnel in anti-narcotics effort
Speaking in Quimbiri, a coca-producing region on the border between Ayacucho and Cusco, Ollanta Humala said Peru’s anti-narcotics efforts could operate without the assistance of the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). Humala is hoping to win the votes of coca-producing peasants in the highlands. He arrived in the area accompanied by coca leader Elsa Malpartida, candidate for the Andean Parliament for Union for Peru (Union Por el Peru, or UPP). According to Malpartida, fumigation of coca damages other plans grown in the area. Humala stated that he opposes the presence for foreign military personnel in Peru.
El Comercio offers two contrasting views on Humala’s position. Fernando Rospigliosi says Humala’s position favors drug traffickers since 90 percent of coca grown in Peru is illegal and supplies the drug trade. Without international assistance, Peru would succumb to drug trafficking. Hugo Cabieses favors the suspension of forceful eradication of coca following a gradual reduction of coca production based on cooperation with coca producing peasants. He cautions, however, that the proposal to expel the DEA is a copy the government of Hugo Chavez. Cabieses also notes the links between drug traffickers and the Shining Path.
Interview with Arturo Woodman
In an interview with Mariella Balbi, Arturo Woodman, vice presidential candidate for National Unity, denies that he represents the Romero group.
Controversy between ONPE and JNE could cause delays in electoral calendar
The controversy between the National Election Board (JNE) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) could frustrate the calendar for the scheduled April 9 elections. Until the JNE determines who can run in this election, the ONPE cannot print the ballots. That, at least, is what the officials from ONPE appear to be saying. The JNE is saying the 90 percent of the ballots can be printed now. ONPE says this is wrong, that all the material must be printed at once. According to ONPE, the JNE has approved the final list of names for the presidential ballot and the Andean Parliament, but has not produced the final list of candidates to the congress. Without the definitive list, the ballots cannot be printed.
PAIT Redux?
APRA has taken an old idea and tailored it to win votes among youth. In the 1985-1990 government of Alan García Pérez, the Program of Support for Temporary Income (PAIT) was a make-work program that employed thousands of informal sector workers, offering a supplement to their income. It now plans to re-tool the program to target youth. PAIT was managed by party loyalists and used for electoral ends. More importantly, it was a bandage program that formed part of an unsustainable economic strategy. Enrique Cornejo, one of APRA’s main economic thinkers, promises that this time the PAIT will be more transparent. Clearly APRA strategists are calculating that the idea of reviving the PAIT will win more youth votes that it will lose votes by reminding the electorate old enough to remember the bad old days of the first García government.
Flores seeks undecided voters
Lourdes Flores, candidate for National Unity, has recognized that she has dropped slightly in the polls, and has announced that her campaign will focus on picking up support from the roughly 25 percent of the electorate that remains undecided. She accepts that some people who have supported her may have defected, and she will seek to win them back. She disagrees with those who argue that the polls understate the strength of her rivals, saying the evidence is that may of the undecided voters view her candidacy with sympathy. Flores is also sticking to her strategy of focusing on character rather than issues. “The problem is not who sets the issues, but who do you believe.”
Bodies to be disinterred in Madre Mia
Forensic excavations will be undertaken in the military base in Madre Mia where Ollanta Humala was stationed in 1992. Based on witness reports, inspectors believe extrajudicial executions may have occurred on our around the base.
Meanwhile, the dispute continues over whether Humala should have copies of his own military record.
Nadine Heredia’s Anti-Fujimorismo
Nadine Heredia, wife of Ollanta Humala, has emerged as an increasingly important part of Humala’s campaign. She was on the television program “Día D” last night, with Nicolas Lucar. She described her involvement in student politics in opposition to the government of Alberto Fujimori as a formative part of her development, and she said that Ollanta Humala attempted to organize uprisings against Fujimori on two occasions prior to the rebellion on October 29, 2000. She criticized Lourdes Flores and her political party, the Popular Christian Party, for being too close to the Fujimori regime. Heredia says that if Humala is elected he will clean up corruption in the armed forces, and that one of the first things he would do would be to remove all the military officers who signed notes of allegiance to Vladimiro Montesinos under the Fujimori regime. For Fernando Rospigliosi, a prominent analyst of defense issues and former Minister of the Interior, the proposal to purge the armed forces would be used as a pretext to assert control over the armed forces, Chavez-style.
Encuesta de la Universidad de Lima confirma caída de Lourdes Flores
Source: La República, 5 de marzo del 2006
Tras los resultados que difundieron en los últimos días las empresas encuestadoras Apoyo, CPI y la Universidad Católica, el último sondeo realizado por la Universidad de Lima indica que Lourdes Flores bajó cinco puntos, mientras que sus más cercanos perseguidores, Ollanta Humala y Alan García, han incrementado sus porcentuales en 4.5% y 4.2%. Luis Benavente, director del Grupo de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Lima y los voceros de las diversas tiendas políticicas explican un poco el por qué de esta caída de la candidata de Unidad Nacional.