Archive for March, 2006
Isaac Humala and the Communiqué Requesting a Fair Sentence for Victor Polay
A communiqué asking for a fair sentence for Victor Polay and signed by several political personalities, presidential candidates, intellectuals and artists was made public on Friday, March 17th. Following this statement, Isaac Humala, father of Ollanta and Ulises, said to local media that if he were president, he would pardon Victor Polay and Abimael Guzman. Ollanta and Ulises Humala have put distance between themselves and the statement made by their father to the media. Leading presidential candidates, including Ollanta Humala, have expressed strong opposition to such a proposal. Local headlines and front pages displayed pictures of Isaac Humala and gave minor exposure to the communiqué whiel adversaries of the Humalas took the opportunity to attack the Humalas and their ideas. Santiago Pedraglio considers Isaac Humala’ statements will not have an impact on Ollanta Humala’s campaign.
Biography: Javier Diez Canseco
Biography: Javier Diez Canseco
Biography: Susana Villarán
Biography: Susana Villarán
Biography: Alberto Borea
Biography: Alberto Borea
Biography: Natale Amprimo
Biography: Natale Amprimo
Biography: Valentin Paniagua
Biography: Valentin Paniagua
Biography: Alan García
Biography: Alan Garcia
Biography: Ollanta Humala
Biography: Ollanta Humala
Ollanta Humala and South America’s Tilt to the Left
By Maxwell A. Cameron
From Puerto Rico
The appearance of a new figure in Peruvian politics, Ollanta Humala, has led to speculation that this Andean nation might be poised to join South America’s tilt to the left. When social scientists gathered for the International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association in San Juan, Puerto Rico, last week, a major debate broke out over the implications of Humala’s candidacy. Will he win? If so, will he take Peru in the same direction as Venezuela and Bolivia?
A self-styled nationalist who first achieved prominence in an unsuccessful military rebellion against the government of Alberto Fujimori, Humala is currently in first place in the presidential race, with about 32 percent of the decided vote. He is likely to make it into a runoff election, which is required in Peru if no candidate wins 50 percent plus one vote on April 9. According to the latest poll, Humala has a 50 percent chance of winning in a runoff against Lourdes Flores Nano, the conservative candidate of the National Unity alliance.
The real story in this election is not the shift to the left by the voters, but their rejection of a dysfunctional political system. The campaign has become a contest over who can best capture the mood of repudiation of the status quo. In this context, the collapse of the once-formidable Peruvian left has created a vacuum that has made the rise of Humala possible. What he represents is anyone’s guess.
Humala is an amateur with neither a coherent party organization nor experience in government. After a rapid ascent in the polls between October 2005 and January 2006, his campaign stalled in late January as a result of scandals and factionalism. His reputation was tarnished by credible accusations that in 1992 he was “Captain Carlos.” Carlos was a commander in the Alto Huallaga region who committed human rights abuses in the war with the Shining Path, a fanatical revolutionary group whose “prolonged people’s war” caused close to 70,000 deaths between 1980 and 2000. Yet the criminal allegations have not derailed Humala’s candidacy.
Why have the accusations of human rights abuses done so little damage to Humala’s campaign? First, many voters do not trust the media; they believe witnesses can be bought, and that the charges are part of a political campaign. Second, many people believe human rights abuses were unavoidable and necessary in the fight with the Shining Path, and Humala casts himself as a patriotic soldier who dutifully followed orders. Finally, the Peruvian left—once a major political force—has splintered into three or four mini-parties. If the polls are right, not a single left-wing party will passes the 4 percent threshold necessary to win seats in congress. The vacuum on the left helps explain the sudden upsurge of Humala.
Humala claims inspiration from General Juan Velasco Alvarado, the populist and nationalist general who implemented land reform and worker-run cooperatives as part of an effort to establish a corporatist-authoritarian political system in the 1970s. Unlike Velasco, however, Humala is unlikely to alter basic property rights. His most radical policy proposals include renegotiating contracts with foreign enterprises and refusing to sign a recently negotiated Free Trade Agreement with the United States. This is tepid stuff compared to the radicalism of the 1970s and 1980s, but Humala is unlikely to be able to pursue a more radical agenda. Peru has neither the indigenous social movements that brought Evo Morales to power in Bolivia’s December 2005 election, nor the disciplined and coherent party organizations that have sustained the left in Chile, Uruguay, and Brazil.
Peru does have the conditions that make for anti-system politics everywhere: miserable poverty, gross inequality, and a growing sense of injustice and hopelessness. The fact that Humala has captured the loyalty of one third of the electorate proves that the status quo is not working for many Peruvians. Wealth created by years of robust export-led growth has not trickled down to the shantytowns, highland villages, or rural areas. The poor feel more abandoned today than under Fujimori. They will tilt toward any candidate who incarnates their frustration. Their vote is not for a particular ideology, but against a system that is cynically indifferent to their suffering—except at election time.
Two Advertising Experts Assess the Electoral Campaign
For those interested on the advertising side of the electoral campaign. Gustavo Rodriguez was interviewed by El Comercio today and Hernán Garrido Lecca (APRA) was interviewed by Peru 21 on Friday.
Ollanta Humala Proposes to Convert Government Palace into a Museum
Alberto Fujimori Denies Knowledge of Massacre in Barrios Altos
Alberto Fujimori declared to a Chilean judge that he learned about the massacre in Barrios Altos by listening to the radio. Fujimori claims he had no knowledge of it and insisted he is innocent of all charges.
DATUM National Poll, March 10-12, 2006: Technical Tie between Flores and Humala
Source: La República, 17 de marzo del 2006
A survey conducted by DATUM International offers results that appear to replicate the findings of APOYO. Flores and Humala are in a technical tie, with Garcia trailing somewhat behind in third place. The race would appear to be between the three front-running candidates, since the rest are in single digits. Flores remains strong in Lima, while Humala’s strength is in the south and growing in the center and west. Garcia’s strength remains in the north, but is contested according to DATUM.
Lourdes Flores: 27%
Ollanta Humala: 26%
Alan Garcia: 19%
Source: La Primera, 17 de marzo del 2006
Sample: 2,438 interviews in 17 departments and 157 districts. Margin of error: +/-2.0%. Download file
Accounts of Lourdes Flores Campaign
Raúl Mendoza Cánepa assesses Lourdes Flores’ campaign strategy for La Primera. Caretas also offers an interesting account of the campaign. Download file
Interview with Arturo Woodman
In this interview Arturo Woodman, vicepresidential candidate for Unidad Nacional, tells La Primera that Unidad Nacional will win in the second round. For him the campaign is not between Left and Right, but over who has the ability to attract investment to the country.
Interview with Alberto Borea
Comentary on 3 Political Campaigns
Juan Carlos Tafur evaluates posible second round escenarios for Alan Garcia. Augusto Alvarez Rodrich discusses Lourdes Flores new strategy. Mirko Lauer examines the fujimorista campaign.
Military Justice in the Election
Here is an interesting interview with Gral. Juan Pablo Ramos touching on issues such as the relationship between military justice and human right abuses. Vicealmirante ap. Luis A. Giampietri Rojas, vicepresidential candidate for APRA, makes the case for faceless judges in his column in La Primera.
Lourdes Flores Changes her Position on Contracts with Investors
During a speech for the Ideele radio network Lourdes Flores stated that one of her first actions as president on July 28, 2006 will be to request to the Contraloría General de la República to audit all the contracts between the Peruvian state and private enterprises. Her goal would appear to be two-fold: (1) to not allow her competitors to monopolize the issue, and (2) to appear less beholden to private sector interests.
Most Electoral Platforms do not Convince Peruvians
Representatives of CONFIEP and the Consorcio de Investigación Económica y Social (CIES) are critical of the policy platforms offered by candidates in this election. For Carlos Reyna, the winner of the election will be the candidate able to build a credible image and offering realistic proposals to the electorate.
Searching for Where the Bodies are Buried
Forensic excavations have begun in Madre Mia in search of evidence of possible victims of “Captain Carlos.” Ollanta Humala has acknowledged that he was a “Captain Carlos” and that he commanded the military base in Madre Mia but has denied violating human rights.
Meanwhile, Antauro Humala has declared his support for his brother’s campaign. Speaking through his lawyer on the television program La Ventana Indiscreta, he claimed that he has never been estranged from his brother. Antauro is running for congress from behind bars, where he is on trial for his role in an assault on a police station in Andahuaylas last year. Together with his another brother, Ulises Humala, he founded the party Avanza País.
Ulises Humala says Antauro is free to support Ollanta Humala, and says that Antauro is probably motivated by pragmatism, illness, and imprisonment. We can read between the lines here: Antauro is hoping for a pardon from his brother if elected.
A Forgotten Issue in this Election: Drugtrafficking
IDICE National Poll, March 11-13, 2006: Technical Tie between Flores, Humala and García
Source: La República, 16 de marzo del 2006
The latest national poll by IDICE, commissioned by the Universidad Garcilaso de la Vega, arrived at a surprising conclusion: there is a technical tie between Lourdes Flores (23.6%), Ollanta Humala (23.3%) and Alan García (22.8%). As with our February posting assessing the previous IDICE national poll, we believe these finding should be read with some skepticism. There may be a hidden vote favoring Alan García, but most other polls suggest he holds third place. That said, with three weeks to go, any of the three top candidates could make it into a second round runoff.
Universe: 4,850 households in 21 regions, 37 provincess and 140 districts, representing 70% of the electoral population. Margin of error +/-4.5%.
Source: La Primera, 16 de marzo del 2006.
Interview with Alfredo Torres of APOYO
In this interview published in Perú.21, Alfredo Torres–who runs the polling firm APOYO–examines the most recent poll results. He argues that the election continues to be a race between Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala and Alan García, with a clear tendency toward polarization between Humala and Flores. A battle is emerging over “C” voters–that is, voters who are not members of the priviledged sectors (the so-called “A & B”) in nor the poorest strata (“D & E”). There is also a fight to win the undecided voters, the 22 percent who are still unsure for whom to vote. He also does not discard the possibility that Garcia could enter the second round since the movements in the electorate remain fluid.
Mirko Lauer and Augusto Alvarez Rodrich on the Crisis in National Unity
Columnist Mirko Lauer says the climate of rebellion within National Unity could contribute to a further loss of voters. Flores continues to focus on the campaign, but there is a growing division between the “politicians” and the “publicists” within UN. So far, no one has been fired, but the attacks seem to be focusing on Glorisa, Flores’ Colombian campaign advisor. There is also some unhappiness in UN with the latest publicity spots, which appear to be doing little for the campaign.
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich also notes increasing nerviousness within UN, and says that Humala may be in a clear first place above Flores if the rural vote is factored into the poll results. Rural voters are costly for survey researchers to reach, and tend to be under represented. Yet the situation is not so different from January of this year, and is not so surprising given the evidence of Humala’s “teflon” with respect to the various accusations that have been made against him.
Interview with César Hildebrandt
A revised version of Cesár Hildebrant´s “Por qué no votaré por Alan” has been circulated in the web lately. In this interview Hildebrandt states that he has not updated the opinion piece he wrote five years ago. He also says that if he was “demanded” to vote for somebody, he would vote for Valentín Paniagua.
La extrema pobreza de Huancavelica y Puno
Source: El Comercio, 16 de marzo del 2006
Analysis of the Meaning of the Polls
A couple of interesting pieces. One by Francisco Eguiguren analyzing the results of the latest polls and the proposals of the leading candidates, and another one by Eduardo Morón, seeking to grasp why Peruvian voters might be attracted to another political project favoring abrupt change.
Se dió inicio a la Franja Electoral
Tras realizar la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) el 24 de febrero el sorteo para determinar su orden de aparición, desde hoy, las organizaciones políticas que participan en los comicios generales del 9 de abril, utilizarán la franja electoral en los medios de comunicación públicos y privados.
ONPE: Electoral Material Ready to be Deliver to Peruvian Consulates around the World
Close to 500,000 Peruvians outside Perú will be able to vote on April 9 in 2,510 voting stations. ONPE has delivered the electoral materials to the ministry of external relations in Lima to mail to Peruvian consulates around the world.
Shining Path Calls for Boycott of Election
Members of the Shining Path have painted walls and circulated fliers calling on the population of Huancayo to boycott the April election.
Analysts Assess Lourdes Flores’ Campaign
Peruvian political analysts are examining the challenges Lourdes Flores faces in the remaining weeks of the campaign. For Fernando Rospigliosi, Flores does not have a central, clear, focus in her campaign–something like security for citizens. For José Luis Sardón, Lourdes Flores has not defended the strengths of the market economy and its social implications. As a result, Ollanta Humala has positioned himself as the candidate for change. For Eduardo Toche, Flores started her campaign too early, her discourse is not credible, and her activities seem artificially directed to winning votes from poorer areas. Juan Carlos Tafur states that Flores’ campaign is going through a very tough times. The mayor of Lima, Luis Castañeda Lossio, has come forward to publicly express his support for Flores; this may be a sign that members of National Unity may finally start to work in a more collaborative manner. Raúl Rachitoff, Lourdes Flores advertising advisor, has announced, in an interview with Perú.21, that there will be changes in the campaign.
The Final Race is between Lourdes, Ollanta & Alan
According to Santiago Pedraglio, the elecction is between three candidates: Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala and Alan García. García needs to capture a large number of the undecided voters and take away votes from other candidates. Pedraglio thinks the percentage of undecided voters is not that significant, based on comparisons with previous elections. For Mirko Lauer, García is the only one who could beat Humala in a second round and needs to pick up the votes Flores is losing to get there.
Interview with Ralph Murphine
Here is an interesting interview in La República. Ralph Murphine, an election consultant, says Ollanta Humala projects a positive image and his nationalism gives his image depth, whereas Lourdes Flores’ image is shallow, and non-specific beyond the fact that she is a woman. Given that pollsters like APOYO exclude close to 20% of the rural population in their sampling, Murphine warns the outcome of the Peruvian election could be similar to the Bolivian one, where people in rural areas voted heavily for Evo Morales.
Alfredo Torres on the latest Apoyo poll
Alfredo Torres runs APOYO, Peru’s leading polling company. His latest survey shows Humala and Flores in a dead heat. In this commentary, Torres notes the propensity of the Peruvian electorate to vote for change and says the candidate best able to capture the mood of repudiation of President Toledo will win the next election. So far, Humala appears to be that candidate. Torres is not explicitly predicting a Humala victory, but this seems implicit in his analysis.
340 Candidates Excluded by JNE
340 candidates have been prevented from running for congress by the National Election Board (JNE). According to the JNE, the registration of many of these candidates was rejected because the candidates did not provide accurate information about themselves to the Board. All candidates are required to provide an hoja de vida, a brief curiculum vitae. The National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) now has the precise information about the candidates to congress and Andean parliament necessary to print all election materials. However, the information has not yet arrived at the ONPE. As of yesterday, the information the ONPE had included candidates who were still under review, and it was this information that has been printed to be sent abroad. The JNE also gave the green light yesterday to 22 other candidates who had been blocked.
Much of the conflict between the JNE and the ONPE originates in the expressed intent of officials of the JNE to merge the two intitutions into one. A spokesperson for the RENIEC, which manages the voters list, has expressed opposition to such a merger.
Cyber-Campaign: Por una Elección Moral
I just found (thanks to fellow blogger Utero de Marita!) this cyber-campaign Campaña por una Elección Moral frente al Proceso Electoral led by a group of young citizens who are critical of the current electoral process and the three leading candidates (Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia). The cyber-campaigners propose to support a coalition Valentin Paniagua-Javier Diez Canseco-Susana Villaran. We will follow their cyber-activities… Below you will find a copy of their manifesto.
Financial Times: Arequipa, a Political Stronghold of Ollanta Humala
Hal Weitzman has written an insightful piece in the Financial Times on Ollanta Humala’ support in the south of Peru.
Mario Vargas Llosa comments on the Peruvian Election
An opinion piece by Mario Vargas Llosa published in El Comercio is sure to be widely read and discussed.
More on the Technical Tie between Flores and Humala
An interesting analysis on the technical tie between Lourdes Flores and Ollanta Humala can be found in the weblog Gran Combo Club: El empate tecnico trasciende.
Back to 1990? Political Analysts Discuss the latest APOYO Poll
According to Nelson Manrique, Lourdes Flores, candidate for National Unity, faces challenges similar to those that confronted Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990. First, it is difficult for Flores shake her image as a candidate of the rich, especially in the midst of the barrage of spending on political advertisements by her congressional candidates. Second, although Flores has traveled extensively across the country, her core support remains strongest in Lima.
In contrast, Ollanta Humala has a clear lead outside Lima. Analyst Fernando Rospigliosi argues that, if there is a second round, APRA will back the outsider–in this case Ollanta Humala, as it did in 1990. For Eduardo Toche, if Humala gets elected, there will be serious consequences for governability given the controversy over Humala’s record of military service. For Jose Luis Tapia, the second round could be between Humala and Alan Garcia. If that is the case, Tapia hopes local business leaders recognize the need to avoid the kinds of mistakes that were made by business leaders in Venezuela. He mentions the coup led by Pedro Carmona, which reinforced the power of Hugo Chavez. Over-reactions by Peru’s business leaders could also reinforce Humala.
Lourdes Flores Moving Away from her “Hyperpersonal” Campaign
Lourdes Flores may be considering some changes to her hyperpersonal campaign strategy given the results of the latest APOYO national poll. Suggestions proposed by members of her alliance include:
– Undertake fewer walks through neighbourhoods and more public meetings.
– Provide opportunities for media exposure to representantives of National Unity. So far, Lourdes Flores has been the only voice.
– Use more local political analysis and less imported political marketing.
– Less TV advertisement by congressional candidates.
– Talk about concrete themes like education, investment and employment.
Such advice suggests the fraying of internal unity.
The Frustrated Negotiations Between Javier Diez Canseco & Ollanta Humala
In an interview with La República, Javier Diez Canseco (of the Socialist Party, or Partido Socialista) describes his unsuccessful negotiation to reach a political agreement with Ollanta Humala earlier in the campaign.
There are more details in a previous posting.
Nicolás Lynch sobre las tachas electorales
Michael Voss (BBC): Candidates Court the Poor
Source: La República, 14 de marzo del 2006. Fotos: Yanina Patricio.
Michael Voss, enviado especial de la BBC, realizó la crónica “Peru candidates court the poor” alrededor del clima político-electoral en el país a menos de un mes de realizarse las elecciones. Candidatos disputando el voto presidencial haciendo de la pobreza el punto principal en el debate político.
Francisco Durand: The Economic Marriage of Dionisio Romero and Lourdes Flores
Few analysts know as much about economic power groups in Peru as Francisco Durand. In this commentary, published in La Republica, he discusses the economic linkages between Dionisio Romero, the richest man in Peru, and Lourdes Flores.
Analistas políticos opinan sobre el 41% de indecisos
Source: La República, 14 de marzo del 2006
Interview with Martha Chávez
Cronograma Electoral: Disposiciones Legales del JNE
Source: La República, 14 de marzo del 2006
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones publicó cronograma con las disposiciones legales que todo ciudadano deberá cumplir antes, durante y después de las elecciones del próximo 9 de abril.