Peru Election 2006

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“The vote is secret, compañero”

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Maxwell A. Cameron
January 21, 2006

A few days ago I watched an interview with Alan Garcia on the television program Hoy with Cesar Hildebrandt and I could not avoid the feeling that the candidate of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance should not be underestimated. Garcia may have presided over one of the most disastrous governments in recent memory, and he provokes strongly negative reactions in much of the electorate, but he is doing an impressive job of painting himself as the alternative to the right-wing policies represented by Lourdes Flores, on the one hand, and the chaos and violence that seem to be close to the surface of the forces behind Ollanta Humala, on the other.
Garcia presents himself as the candidate of the center, the politician closest to the median voter, and the elder statesman of Peruvian poltiics. He also leads the only well-organized and grassroots-financed political party in the country, and has a clear program of government. Garcia reminded Hildebrandt that he won close to 50 percent of the vote in the second round election in 2001, and he fully expects to be able to tap into the same electorate in this campaign.
Later, talking about the election with a friend, I asked how he would vote: “el voto es secreto, compañero” he said–the ballot is secret, compañero. Compañero is the phrase APRA supporters use among themselves, so the subtext was: I’m voting for Alan and that is a secret among those of us who support APRA. How many more APRA voters out there refuse to reveal their support for Garcia to suvery researchers? In the following article, Juan Carlos Tafur argues that the other candidates should not make the error of counting Garcia out.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 21st, 2006 at 10:03 am

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

Humala denounces plot to assassinate secretary general of UPP

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Maxwell A. Cameron
January 20, 2006
NOTE TO READERS: LOOK AHEAD TO JANUARY 23. THE STORY OF THE ASSASSINATION PLOT PROVES TO BE A FARSE.

Dante Yorges: “Don’t do it in the party locale or other place because people are around him like flies.”
Hit man: “You suggest the door of his house.”
Yorges: “In his house, at the door.”
Hit man: “How? With lead?”
Yorges: “Lead in the head would be best. One shot of lead, and done.”

Source: El Comercio, January 20, 2006
Is this a scene from a B-rated gangster film? No, it is part of the process of selecting candidates to run for congress.
Ollanta Humala has denounced a plot to kill secretary general of the Unión Por el Perú (UPP), José Vega Antonio. The plot was allegedly hatched by another UPP leader, Dante Yorges, the secretary of mobilization of the same party. The television program “Cuarto Poder” aired a video in which Yorges and a hit man (who remains unidentified, but was apparently the source of the video) discussed how to eliminate Vega.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 20th, 2006 at 8:52 am

Peru May Join Latin America’s Populist Tilt to Left

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Written by Michael Ha

January 18th, 2006 at 9:27 pm

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

¿Los errores de siempre? Los dilemas y desafíos de Lourdes Flores Nano para estas elecciones

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We have the pleasure of publishing a very thoughtful analysis written by Aldo Fernando Ponce, a Peruvian graduate student currently doing doctoral research in the University of Connecticut in the United States. The purpose of the paper is to assess the dilemmas facing conservative candidate Lourdes Flores Nano.
The paper begins by analyzing the fragmentation and erosion of the party system, a process that has given rise to “outsider” candidates. These conditions create problems for all established party leaders, but there are additional problems that have plagued the right in the past, including the tendency to form temporary alliances that are not very disciplined or enduring, and problems marketing their programs. The paper provides a good sense of the significant challenges that will need to be addressed by Flores Nano if she is to be successful in this contest.
¿Los errores de siempre? Los dilemas y desafíos de Lourdes Flores Nano para estas elecciones
By Aldo Fernando Ponce
January 17, 2006

En los últimos procesos electorales, el sistema electoral peruano ha mostrado una gran fragmentación que se ha manifestado por el alto número de candidatos a la presidencia y de listas para acceder a posiciones en el Congreso. Sin embargo, en números gruesos, la mayoría de votos ha tendido a concentrarse en tres fuerzas: la primera en el APRA con su tradicional bastión electoral concentrado en el norte del país; la segunda en diversas agrupaciones consideradas de “derecha”, entre ellas el PPC (Partido Popular Cristiano) y Acción Popular como una de las más representativas; y en una tercera relativamente más difusa e inestable que las dos anteriores, la cual hasta antes de 1990 recayó sobre ciertas agrupaciones de Izquierda aglutinadas bajo la alianza Izquierda Unida, y posteriormente sobre el surgimiento de outsiders oportunistas que, como Alberto Fujimori y Alejandro Toledo, se convirtieron en los actores políticos más exitosos de los últimos años.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 17th, 2006 at 1:45 pm

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

The “No Legislative Re-Election” Bandwagon

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Maxwell A. Cameron
January 14, 2006

The topic of re-election of legislators is the flavor of the moment. Since Ollanta Humala proposed that no member of congress in Union Por el Peru (UPP) be allowed to run for re-election, most other leaders have jumped on the no-reelection bandwagon.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 14th, 2006 at 7:15 pm

Peru Could Be Wooed By Yet Another Prophet

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Embassy, January 11th, 2006
By Vladimir Torres

Bolivian President-elect Evo Morales began a lengthy international tour on Jan. 3. After visiting Cuba before the New Year, his second trip started with a brief visit to Venezuela, where Morales expressed his adhesion to the “anti-neo-liberal and anti-imperialist” struggle of Hugo Chavez.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 13th, 2006 at 6:12 pm

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

Humala Supporters Celebrate Victory, While Fujimoristas Continue Hunger Strike

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Maxwell A. Cameron
January 12, 2006

Two radically different political dramas were played out on the streets of Lima today. While supporters of Ollanta Humala anticipated another victory in their effort to overcome legal obstacles to participating in the April elections, the supporters of former president Alberto Fujimori, who has been legally denied the right to run, continued in their hunger-strike and vigil before the electoral authorities.
Jesus Maria
A clamorous scene was observed in the otherwise quiet residential neighborhood of Jesus Maria near the center of Lima. A group of supporters of Ollanta Humala gathered outside the office of the Special Election Board for Lima-Callao as authorities inside deliberated over the merits of the arguments for and against Humala’s candidacy.
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Photo: M.A. Cameron
The crowd sensed that the decision would go their way. Yesterday, the Board had decided to reject a similar motion of censure, which had been initiated by lawyer Julio Quintanilla. The mood was expectant, and the crowd demonstrated support for their leader with colorful banners and flags, and chants of “Urgente, urgente, Humala presidente!” Sun hats with “Ollanta Presidente” were de rigeur; the ads for Coca Cola on the visors presumably did not imply corporate sponsorship. The chorus was led by a wiry character festooned with flags and a megaphone strapped above his head. Another chant went: “If there’s no solution, there will be revolution!”
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Photo: M. A. Cameron
Moving around, but always at the center of attention, one leader stood out: Dr. Liliana Humala De la Oliva, cousin of Ollanta and lawyer by training. From atop a pickup truck she doled out water to the dozens of supporters scorched by the mid-day sun. Once all the supporters were sated, she moved along the security perimeter established by the police, offering water to the men in uniform. The crowd roared approval with “Police, friends, Ollanta is with you.” Some of the police accepted the water, while other demurred. None dared drink it openly.
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Photo: M.A. Cameron
Agreeing to an on-the-record interview, Liliana Humala suggested we use her mobile “office,” the cab of her pickup truck. Flanked by advisors and supporters, we bundled into the cab, occasionally jolted as water continued to be dispensed to the crowd from the back. “The people of Peru are going through a delicate sentimental crisis, she said; they have been betrayed by politicians who have cheated on them. Now they are giving their heart to a new person—Ollanta Humala.” Why have Peruvians deposited their affections in this new leader? “His transparency,” she answered; “we talk naturally, without putting on airs.”
At that moment, an advisor informed Liliana Humala that the decision had been taken: the second censure had been ruled unfounded. “How does this make you feel?” I asked. “The greatest happiness in the world. We are going to win in the first round” she responded. According to Liliana Humala, efforts to stop her leader’s candidacy were backfiring, and providing excellent propaganda for her movement. Who was behind these efforts to block Humala? I asked. “Olivera works with Quintanilla” she said. Fernando Olivera is the leader of the Frente Independiente Moralizador, or FIM, and Quintanilla had run on the FIM congressional slate in 2000.
Regarding the dispute with Michael Martinez, Liliana Humala insisted that the member of congress for the Union Por el Peru had done nothing for the Department of Apurimac, which he represents, and that is the reason Humala asked him, along with all other congressional incumbents, not to run again.
I asked whether Ollanta Humala, should he come to power, would govern with his supporters or abandon them when he took power, to which Liliana Humala responded that people should occupy their posts because they are “competent professionals.” She was chosen to be on the national executive committee (CEN) of her party because, she claimed, she is seen as someone capable of putting things in order and the rank-and-file have identified her as a leader. “I get very angry with the local press,” she said, “for comparing me with Margarita.” Margarita is the sister of Alejandro Toledo, current President of Peru, who has been accused of influence trafficking and of falsifying signatures for the registration of the ruling party, Peru Posible.
“I am a lawyer. I have not met with groups to falsify signatures. This I cannot accept. That woman did nothing, otherwise things would be different for Peru Posible. I am working to create a party like APRA, and to fulfill the demands of the people.” Alan Garcia was a leader, she said, but he has already governed.
Lima Cercado
Not far from the boisterous celebrants in Jesus Maria, a rather sadder drama was unfolding in front of the principal office of the National Election Board. On the corner of La Colmena and Jiron Lampa, across from what used to be the Banco de la Nacion before it was burnt down in protests against President Fujimori’s attempt to be re-elected to a third term in office in 2000, a smaller group of Fujimori supporters were camped. They were on a hunger strike, and some had been there as many as 17 days without service or medical attention.
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Photo: M.A. Cameron
Asked what brought them to such desperate measures, they responded that they were all there to support the candidacy of Alberto Fujimori. “We want Fujimorisimo with Fujimori” said one. “We support Fujimori because he did many good things, good works” chimed in another. “He changed the history of the country in 10 years” said a young man in his 4th day without food, to a general murmur of agreement. Warming to the topic, he went on:
“He gave us the opportunity to know a new way of governing, different from traditional politicians who governed as demagogues and ignored the people. Fujimori reached to the farthest villages, bringing basic necessities like schools and medicine. Toledo has done nothing. Before Fujimori there was hyperinflation, terrorism, misery, hunger and chaos. He left the country without terrorism, with peace. He took the country from being unviable to stable. With Fujimori, authority and discipline were restored. This has been misinterpreted as dictatorial.”
“Why are they so afraid?” asked another, with reference to the refusal to allow Fujimori to run. “All we’re saying is he should be allowed to compete.” I asked whether the group thought Fujimori would win if allowed to run. “Without doubt” was the consensus. “People say that to be Fujimorista is to be a thief, corrupt. But there is no proof against Fujimori. There are thousands of commissions, and no proof. The Kroll commission cost $800,000 and not a single sol was found.” The $800,000 is a sum that has been mentioned on Fujimori’s website.
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Photo: M.A. Cameron
Another hunger striker, 17 days without food, came forward and asked that his message be conveyed outside Peru: “Don’t send dollars to the NGOs. They are controlled by members of congress, and the help does not reach the poor.” He said he had been threatened by terrorists while on hunger-strike, and drew his hand across his throat ominously.
The animus of the two protests could not have been more starkly contrasting. Yet both crowds had taken to the streets to rally behind leaders facing what they believed were unjust obstacles to their participation in the election process. Obstacles imposed, moreover, by those who fear change. Undeniably, both represent important currents in Peruvian politics.

Written by Michael Ha

January 12th, 2006 at 9:59 pm

The Illusion of Legislative Renewal

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Maxwell A. Cameron
January 10, 2006

With the deadline to register presidential candidates past, attention now turns from candidates to the executive office to candidates to the legislature. The two front-running candidates are calling for sweeping renewal in congress. Ollanta Humala (candidate of Unión Por el Perú, UPP) is asking that all members of the congressional slate supporting his proposed government be non-incumbents. Lourdes Flores Nano (candidate for Unión Nacional) has also proposed a number of new faces for congress and has asked more established leaders to step aside. Both these initiatives, while popular with voters, have fallen like cold water on incumbent members of congress behind these candidates.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 10th, 2006 at 8:42 am

Alan Garcia’s Choice of VP Questioned

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Alan Garcia would like to win the support of Fujimorista voters who may feel they have nowhere else to park their votes if their preferred candidate cannot run. So he has appointed a vice presidential candidate with past involvement in Fujimori´s municipal movement, Vamos Vecinos. Luis Giampietri also shares with Garcia responsibility for one of the worst human rights crimes of the 1980s: the penal massacre in El Fronton.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 9th, 2006 at 4:18 pm

The Campaign Has Only Just Begun

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Maxwell A. Cameron
January 8, 2006

Researchers in the field of comparative politics like to “soak and poke” in the areas they study as much as possible. Sometimes what we learn from primary research could be discovered by other means, especially in an era of instant communication over the Internet. That said, there is no question that being in a place, even for a short period, puts things into a new perspective. One acquires a sense of a place, an olfato politico, only by living in it. What follows are a few initial impressions.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 8th, 2006 at 11:15 pm

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

Judicial Reform is Dead

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Maxwell A. Cameron
January 8, 2006

There are important insights in a feature story from El Comercio, entitled “La Reforma Judicial Sigue Durmiendo,” January 8, 2006, pp. A1, A8-9-10. The basic thrust of the story is that judicial reform has simply gone into sleep mode. Notwithstanding comprehensive reforms recommended in a report by the Comision Especial para la Reforma Integral de la Administracion de la Justicia (known by its acronym CERIAJUS), Peru’s judicial power remains as inefficient, corrupt, and backlogged as ever.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 8th, 2006 at 10:21 pm

Hugo Neira on La Tierra de Humala o “Los Estragos de la Globalización”

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Written by Michael Ha

January 7th, 2006 at 3:13 pm

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

Observatorio Electoral

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There is a new electronic publication from Palestra, the Portal de Asuntos Publicos de la Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru (PUCP), it is called Observatorio Electoral.

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Written by Michael Ha

January 3rd, 2006 at 8:32 am

Caudillos in Peruvian Politics

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By Jean Pierre Chabot, Sprott School of Business
Carleton University, Ottawa
December 30, 2005

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Written by Michael Ha

December 30th, 2005 at 8:41 pm

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

Martha Chavez returns to congress

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Source: La Primera

Maxwell A. Cameron, December 15, 2005

After a 42 month absence, Martha Chavez returned to her seat in congress. She had been forced out in mid-2002 due to an allegation that she had taken $20,000 (US) from President Fujimori’s de facto security chief, Vladimiro Montesinos.
She has been absolved of wrong-doing by the courts.
According to a report by Peru.21, when Chavez returned to the congress a number of lawmakers approached her to offer their congratulations. Members of the government kept their distance. The ambience was tense, with some legislators appearing uncomfortable. Many believe the removal of Chavez was excessive, and partisan, though others argue that the decision was consistent with the evidence of wrong-doing available at the time.
In a press conference Chavez indicated that the congress has lost prestige, and that she would return to her seat in the only out of a sense of obligation to the voters. She accused Carlos Ferrero of deceiving lawmakers by assuring them there was video evidence that she received had money from Montesinos. She said her human rights have been abused.
There is a dimension to this story which deserves greater attention. By suspending Chavez from congress in 2002, the members of the legislative majority acted like a judicial body. They took a decision that was not general in character, but specific. One of the worst abuses of power under the government of Fujimori was the tendency to pass “laws with proper names.” That is, rather than legislating about general matters, the congress often passed laws to benefit or penalize specific individuals.
An example of this is the “Law of Authentic Interpretation of the Constitution,” which was written with the sole purpose of enabling Fujimori to run for a third term in 2000, in violation of the 1993 constitution. Martha Chavez was a ferocious defender of this law, and she participated in the destruction of the Constitutional Tribunal when it attempted to overturn it.
A majority on the tribunal argued that an ordinary law should not be used to determine the meaning of an article of the constitution for no other purpose than to benefit a specific individual. Such a law violated both the idea of a hierarchy of laws and the idea that law should be general in character.
By removing Chavez from her seat, the current congress engaged in similarly punitive behavior. They encroached on the role of the judiciary. Deciding criminal guilt is business best left to judges, who are more competent to make such decisions. Now that their actions have been thrown back in their faces they naturally feel chagrined. Well they might. It is, after all, a sad day when someone like Martha Chavez can lecture the public about the abuse of power and human rights.

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Written by Michael Ha

December 15th, 2005 at 8:04 pm

Yale University Forum on Fujimori

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Report on a Round Table ‘Fujimori: From Fugitive to Candidate?’
By Fabiola Bazo and Maxwell A. Cameron
Yale Center for International and Area Studies, New Haven, CT,
December 2, 2005

On December 1, 2005 a round table discussion was held at Yale University sponsored by The Council on Latin American and Iberian Studies, The Latin American Series at Yale Law School, The Orville H. Schell Jr. Center for International Human Rights, the Canadian Studies Committee, and the Yale Center for International and Area Studies (YCIAS). The topic was “Fujimori: From Fugitive to Candidate?”
Participants included: Enrique Mayer (Yale University); Julio Carrion (University of Delaware); Natalia Sobrevilla Perea (Yale University); Julia Maria Urrunaga (Yale University); Andres Mejia Acosta (University of British Columbia); Akira Watanabe (University of Tokyo); Maxwell A. Cameron (Yale University/UBC); Fabiola Bazo (Yale University).
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Enrique Mayer introducing panelists

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Written by Michael Ha

December 2nd, 2005 at 3:00 pm

Traditional Politicians, Apristas, and Outsiders

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humalahug.jpg
Source: ollantaperu.com
Why Ollanta Humala may be more than a flash in the pan
By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 30, 2005

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Written by Michael Ha

November 30th, 2005 at 9:17 am

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

Barometro November 2005: Humala vs Flores; 1990 all over again

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By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 26, 2005

A Barometro poll by the Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima finds Ollanta Humala eating into the support for Lourdes Flores Nano in Lima.
This poll should be read with caution. A sample size of 631 people is very small. All of them are from the Lima/Callao area, so this is not a national poll. A margin of error of 4 percent means that most of the candidates are indistinguishable.
There are, nonetheless, two things worth highlighting in this poll. First, it shows Humala in a statistical tie (with Garcia and Paniagua, both of which fall within the margin of error) for second place in Lima. Humala is thought to be strongest outside Lima in the provinces. Second, it suggests Humala is taking votes away from Flores in the poorest strata (D and E).
At the current moment, there are definite similarities with the 1990 election. A candidate strongest among affluent voters is in first place. With APRA looking like a possible contender for second place, voters are casting around for someone else. Humala is the outsider who seems capable of winning the sympathies of voters who are socially and politically excluded.
Of course, there are differences. Humala insists he is not an candidate without a program, and indeed his ideological profile is very different from Fujimori. Flores is not the disaster that Vargas Llosa was as a candidate–for one thing, she listens to the voters. Nevertheless, it is striking how the Peruvian political system tends to generate these sorts of contests. The reasons would appear to be structural.
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima, Barometro Noviembre 2005
Sample: 631 people in Metropolitan Lima and Callao, November 19-20, 2005.
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Source: La Republica, November 26, 2005.
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Source: El Comercio, November 26, 2005

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Written by Michael Ha

November 26th, 2005 at 4:54 am

Ollanta Humala Gains Momentum

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Source: website Partido Nacionalista Peruano
By Fabiola Bazo and Maxwell A. Cameron
November 15, 2005

In a trend that is alarming pundits, the presidential candidacy of Ollanta Humala appears to be gathering momentum. A couple of recent polls suggest that Humala has the potential to capture disaffected voters who might otherwise be inclined to support Fujimori.
According to Apoyo Opinion y Mercado, Humala has risen by three percentage points in the last month, and is now favored by 11 percent of the electorate. In the southern highlands his support reaches 23 percent and 19 percent in the central sierra.(1)
In the 1980s Peru had a strong (if not very unified) democratic left, which routinely won substantial representation in congress and municipalities throughout the nation. In the 1990s, with the rise of Fujimori, political parties of all stripes lost their claim on the allegiance of voters who, in unprecedented numbers, threw their support behind so-called “independent” candidates. Today, most voters still see themselves as independent and overwhelmingly reject party attachments. A robust majority of 60 percent locate themselves in the center of the political spectrum, according to Apoyo.(2)
That said, if you combine the 18 percent of the voters who define themselves as “center left” with the rest of the left, you get almost 40 percent of the electorate—or at least that is what the APOYO numbers suggest. In the 1980s, these voters tended to support the left or APRA and in the 1990s they were captured by Fujimori. They are among the voters who are now turning to Humala.
According to Apoyo, Humala is the only presidential candidate who a vast majority of the voters locate on the left. As many voters think Garcia is a candidate of the right as think he is a candidate of the left. This may change. Facing the threat of a new entrant into the political market place, expect Garcia to shift to the left. But Humala has something Garcia does not. As the outsider in this contest, he has less political baggage. Humala is the candidate who is least known and whose ceiling, as Peru21 editor Augusto Alvarez Rodrich argues, is hence unknown.
Humala’s left-wing credentials are called into question by editorialist Mirko Lauer who argues that the candidate represents a mix of left-wing, nationalist, and authoritarian ideas, along with a commitment to ethnic autonomy. He compares Humala to Venezuela’s Chavez. Another apt comparison is made by Carlos Tapia, who describes Humala’s thinking as a sort of “neovelasquismo” or return to the discourse of the reformist military officers who governed Peru in the 1970s (and, incidentally, are also admired by Chavez). Like Lauer, Tapia questions Humala’s democratic credentials, noting that in 2000 he did not support the OAS dialogue roundtables and rejected the accord among political forces seeking a democratic solution to the crisis. Tapia asks what Humala’s views might be on human rights violations in emergency areas where he served as an army officer.
Another poll, this one by IDICE, shows Humala growing among supporters of Fujimori in the poorer areas in the highlands. IDICE interviewed 4,950 people across the country (excluding Huancavelica, Madre de Dios, Pasco, Apurimac and Ucayali). The results of this poll seem to reinforce the view that the Humala’s Peruvian Nationalist Party (or Partido Nacionalista Peruano) has taken first place in a number of highland regions (Arequipa, Ayacucho, Cusco, Huanuco, Puno and Tacna) and in every case except Arequipa this growth has primarily come at the expense of Si Cumple. The same polling firm projects Humala’s party to take third place in congress with 18 seats, after APRA with 32 seats and Unidad Nacional, with 22 seats. Such projections are obviously premature, but they suggest Humala is becoming a force to be reckoned with.
Alvarez Rodrich argues that the a consensus among experts is that Humala’s candidacy can continue its upward trend, in part because the electorate does not yet know him very well. Once they know him better, the trend may slow down. This is not, however, a universally shared view. Juan Carlos Tafur argues that support for Humala is lowest in the polls in places where he has not yet actively campaigned. So it remains to be seen whether Humala’s fortunes will continue to rise or plateau as the campaign unfolds and Peruvians become more acquainted with the latest outsider candidate.
According to a report in La Razon, Humala regards Fujimori as his most serious rival. Fujimori’s candidacy, according to Humala, is backed by powerful economic groups. He laments the Toledo government’s emphasis on extraditing Fujimori instead of concentrating his efforts on defending Peru’s sovereignty in the dispute over maritime sea rights with Chile.
According to the survey by Apoyo, Fujimori’s arrival in the region did not result in a big spike in support for Fujimori among voters. Part of the reason seems to be that Humala’s movement is attracting Si Cumple votes outside Lima. Peruvian democracy confronts a double challenge: the possible return of Fujimori and the temptation to leap into another autocratic adventure under the guise of participatory democracy.
Note
1. Polls can be unreliable, but Apoyo is one of the more respected firms. The poll conducted this November was limited to urban areas, but it did cover major cities through the country and the sample size was 1,618 men and women above 18 years of age.
2. On this question, however, only 552 people responded, the rest refused to locate themselves on the ideological spectrum at all.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 16th, 2005 at 11:12 am

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

The Trouble with Alberto

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By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 12, 2005

A perusal of the charges against former president Alberto Fujimori reveals an assortment of pecadillos ranging from vile abuses of power to mundane acts of private enrichment. How do you build a legal case when the specific crimes are hard to prove although the broader pattern of the abuse of power is indisputable?
All constitutions really do is tell us how laws are to be made; once a legal system is in place the laws can be enforced with penalties. But there is nothing in a constitution that spells out the consequences of violating the constitution (such provisions would be absurd, since constitutions precede laws and hence penalties). The worst offenses committed by the governments over which Fujimori presided were actions that were reprehensible not so much because they were illegal (though they involved systematically breaking the law) but because they were unconstitutional. They included:
– The autogolpe of 1992
– The 1995 Amnesty Law
– Ramming through congress the “law of authentic interpretation”
– Disbanding of the Constitutional Tribunal in 1997 when it struck down the law of authentic interpretation
– Running for an unconstitutional third term in 2000
– And, of course, putting Montesinos on the payroll for a job that was never formally defined but which amounted to turning control over much of the machinery of government to the intelligence service and giving free rein to the Colina group.
These are serious violations of the constitution, and they involved systematic law-breaking, but the Chilean judges are presumably going to want to see evidence of specific criminal wrong-doing that links particular crimes directly to Fujimori. After years of investigation there is precious little by way of material evidence linking Fujimori directly to such heinous crimes as the massacres at Barrios Altos or La Cantuta.
There is testimonial evidence that Fujimori was directly involved in these events, and there is written evidence that he rewarded the principals, but what is surely more serious is the fact that he was responsible, along with Montesinos, for creating a political system in which such actions could occur with impunity.
Fujimori and Montesinos created a system of government based on impunity, in which key offices in all major government agencies were captured and subordinated to the will of the executive. Montesinos was directly involved in torture, extortion, bribery and corruption of public officials. His criminality is beyond question.
Fujimori should be thought of not as a common criminal–though crimincal charges against him may ultimately be sustained–but more importantly he was the intellectual architect of a criminal regime. What is required here is political not legal judgment. And that is why it is vital to remember that what bars Fujimori from running in the 2006 election is a political judgment not a legal one.
Such is the sorry state of affairs of the Peruvian judiciary that there is not one single sentence against Fujimori, only charges. Having fled the country, Fujimori could not be tried. Apparently—though I have trouble accepting this, and would happily be corrected if anyone else knows better—he could not be sentenced in absentia in Peru.
Whatever the case may be, the fact that there are some 20-plus charges against him does not stop him from being a candidate (except that it might mean campaigning from behind bars). The impediment to his candidacy is a congressional vote that designates him ineligible for public office for 10 years. The power to designate an individual ineligible for office is a faculty that resides in the congress according to Peru’s constitution.
This faculty is political not juridical. Congress does not need a judicial sentence to ban someone from holding public office. That does not mean it can do so arbitrarily. Like any such political judgment, it had better be supported with solid reasons capable of winning the support of the vast majority of the voters, or else it will appear to be nothing better than political persecution. This, of course, is exactly what Fujimori and his supporters are arguing.
And that is why it is incumbent upon the political parties that have a commitment to democracy to insist that Fujimori cannot run for no other reason than to protect Peruvian democracy.
Fujimori has never run in an election that was not tarnished by some sort of doubt about his legitimacy as a candidate. He has, once again, positioned himself in the middle of a storm of controversy in which the central issue is, as usual, his eligibility for office.
Happily, some candidates, like Jaime Salinas, have followed Juan Sheput’s advice to pledged themselves to present a united front against Fujimori and, if necessary, abstain from any election in which the former leader might be a candidate. The public, particularly Fujimori’s supporters, need to hear a reasoned and unified defence of the political decision to bar Fujimori from office. Candidates should not try to stand behind the feeble shield of the judiciary. It is not enough to say that Fujimori is facing legal charges; the deeper question is political. Can Fujimori coexist with Peru’s fragile democracy? His decenio suggests the answer is “No.”
A number of related articles on this topic follow.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 12th, 2005 at 7:10 am

Return of Fujimori

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By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 6, 2005

Alberto Fujimori is not known for half-measures or equivocation. His political style is direct and confrontational. It is also utterly contemptuous of the legal rules of the game. Those who underestimate his immoderate ambition, or fail to appreciate the depth of his indifference toward the rule of law, are often surprised by his decisions.
When he was offered the presidency by Vargas Llosa between the first and second rounds in 1990, Fujimori preferred to decline and run in the second round rather than to be allied with Vargas Llosa’s FREDEMO party. In April 1992, he closed congress and purged the judiciary rather than operate within Peru’s constitutional system. When the Japanese ambassador’s residence in Lima was captured by Tupac Amaru revolutionaries in December 1996, Fujimori opted for a decisive military victory rather than negotiation. Even his resignation was dramatic and decisive.
Fujimori’s return to Peru, while announced some months back, was widely regarded by analysts as part of a legal strategy–something half way between an effort to rehabilitate his image and a strategy to open the door to a return to Peru in the future on terms that would be more or less acceptable. His arrival in Chile and recent communique suggest otherwise. Fujimori appears to believe he can return to Peru and run in the 2006 election.
With Alberto Fujimori in Santiago de Chile, everything about the 2006 election has changed. The entire debate over the National Election Board (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) and the Constitutional Tribunal (Tribunal Constitucional) takes on a new cast. The issue of whether decisions by the JNE can be appealed is no longer a hypothetical debate. The question is: Is the JNE the best body to decide whether Fujimori can be a candidate? Or should that decision be taken by the Constitutional Tribunal? (Hint: which put up the better fight against Fujimori when he was in power?)
Fujimori’s arrival in Santiago also changes the dynamics of the incipient campaign. For weeks the pundits have been arguing that there are essentially four or five candidates that need to be taken seriously: Lourdes Flores Nano, Alan Garcia, Valentin Paniagua, Jaime Salinas, and, perhaps, Ollanta Humala. How will each of these candidates respond to the prospect of a new competitor? Already, it has been argued, that candidates should collectively withdraw in the event that Fujimori enters the race. This view, taken by Juan Sheput, was dismissed as “ingenuous” by Javier Diez Canseco. To others, such talk may have seemed premature. Not now. Now would be an excellent time for all the candidates to address the issue.
The situation in 2005-06 is not quite the same as in 1999-2000 when the parties of the so-called “opposition” failed to either collectively withdraw from the campaign after Fujimori was registered by a JNE penetrated and controlled by the President’s cronies, or to unite behind a single candidate. This time, the political parties have better cards to play. Fujimori can’t count on the unconditional support of a subservient electoral body, a judiciary corrupted and coopted by Vladimiro Montesinos, and a deeply partisan military hierarchy.
If Fujimori returns to Peru, it will be critical to watch how the judiciary, the JNE, and the armed forces, behave. According to Heriberto Benitez the Peruvian government has been acting as if the Constitutional Tribunal had not barred Fujimori from holding public office. For example, Peruvian diplomats in Japan helped Fujimori to sign the document that created an alliance between his three political parties.
It will also be important to watch the political parties opposed to Fujimori. It is still early to talk about coalescing against the former president. However, if the parties share a common interest in protecting the democratic rules of the game (and that is a big “if”), their messages will stress the fact that Fujimori’s 10 years in power weakened democracy by undermining any consensus on the core rules of the game and that his bid to return to Peru is a continuation of that long-standing pattern. Let’s not forget that Fujimori’s return has been accompanied by threats of violence, promises of more “Vladivideos,” and lots of legal double-talk.
If, on the other hand, the parties persist in their more usual habit of ignoring principle and seeking immediate electoral advantage at the expense of the rules of the game, then the parties will avoid alienating the Fujimori voters who might well decide the difference in a runoff contest. In the process, they may even help Fujimori’s cause.

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Written by Michael Ha

November 6th, 2005 at 4:50 pm

Is Ollanta Humala an option?

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On Friday, October 14, three Peruvian political analysts wrote opinion pieces analyzing Ollanta Humala’s rising support in the polls. Mirko Lauer, from La Republica, argued in Outsider con galones that rumours are circulating that Humala may have received US$80,000 in support from Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez to assist him in his travels across the country. Diego Garcia-Sayan in El voto antisistema for El Comercio speculated about the possibility that Humala might capture the antisystemic vote. August Alvarez Rodrich in his Peru 21 editorial, Mamita Ollanta! argued that Humala’s support resides mainly outside Lima, in the Southern highlands.
Can Humala maintain his upward trend in the polls over the next 5 months?
Agenciaperu.com interviewed A. Alvarez Rodrich and Carlos Tafur on October 16. Alvarez Rodrich argued that he would not be surprised if the second electoral round is between Flores Nano and Humala

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Written by Michael Ha

October 24th, 2005 at 11:07 am

Posted in Analysis & Opinion

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