Source: La Primera
Maxwell A. Cameron, December 15, 2005
After a 42 month absence, Martha Chavez returned to her seat in congress. She had been forced out in mid-2002 due to an allegation that she had taken $20,000 (US) from President Fujimori’s de facto security chief, Vladimiro Montesinos.
She has been absolved of wrong-doing by the courts.
According to a report by Peru.21, when Chavez returned to the congress a number of lawmakers approached her to offer their congratulations. Members of the government kept their distance. The ambience was tense, with some legislators appearing uncomfortable. Many believe the removal of Chavez was excessive, and partisan, though others argue that the decision was consistent with the evidence of wrong-doing available at the time.
In a press conference Chavez indicated that the congress has lost prestige, and that she would return to her seat in the only out of a sense of obligation to the voters. She accused Carlos Ferrero of deceiving lawmakers by assuring them there was video evidence that she received had money from Montesinos. She said her human rights have been abused.
There is a dimension to this story which deserves greater attention. By suspending Chavez from congress in 2002, the members of the legislative majority acted like a judicial body. They took a decision that was not general in character, but specific. One of the worst abuses of power under the government of Fujimori was the tendency to pass “laws with proper names.” That is, rather than legislating about general matters, the congress often passed laws to benefit or penalize specific individuals.
An example of this is the “Law of Authentic Interpretation of the Constitution,” which was written with the sole purpose of enabling Fujimori to run for a third term in 2000, in violation of the 1993 constitution. Martha Chavez was a ferocious defender of this law, and she participated in the destruction of the Constitutional Tribunal when it attempted to overturn it.
A majority on the tribunal argued that an ordinary law should not be used to determine the meaning of an article of the constitution for no other purpose than to benefit a specific individual. Such a law violated both the idea of a hierarchy of laws and the idea that law should be general in character.
By removing Chavez from her seat, the current congress engaged in similarly punitive behavior. They encroached on the role of the judiciary. Deciding criminal guilt is business best left to judges, who are more competent to make such decisions. Now that their actions have been thrown back in their faces they naturally feel chagrined. Well they might. It is, after all, a sad day when someone like Martha Chavez can lecture the public about the abuse of power and human rights.
Author: Michael Ha
In a press conference in Caracas, the Vice President of Venezuela, José Vicente Rangel, denied that President Hugo Chavez has links with Ollanta Humala. Lourdes Flores made this claim during her recent visit to Washington, D.C.
Rangel suggested that perhaps Flores has links with the government of the United States, since the policy of the United States is “to create confusion.”
No uno sino muchos países. Una entrevista con Carlos Iván Degregori
por Abelardo Sánchez León y Martín Paredes Oporto, QUEHACER 156
Lima, 9 de noviembre 2005 Download file
APRA proposed legislation to prevent turncoatism in political parties. The bill, which would ask parties not to include on their lists of candidates legislators who had left their political parties, has gone nowhere. Secretary general Jorge Del Castillo suggests this is due to the large number of turncoats in the current legislature. He took the opportunity to note that only APRA has held fully free and open internal elections to choose members of their slates for the congress.
A very interesting interview by Cecilia Valenzuela with Jeanette Enmanuel, posted in Agenciaperu.com on December 11, 2005: Jeannette Enmanuel: “Mi madre me pidió de rodillas que no entrara a la política”
Two days after the resignation of Jeanette Enmanuel, Rafael Belaunde, leader of Adelante (a political party in process of registration with ONPE) and son of former president Fernando Belaunde Terry (1980-85), was “invited” by Alejandro Toledo to become the second presidential pre-candidate for Peru Posible. Belaunde is perceived to be an “independent.” He has proposed to reduce congressional terms to 2.5 years and cut public sector salaries. According to La Republica, Toledo chose Belaunde because of his public support for the free trade agreement with the United States.
Jose Barba Caballero told Radio Programas del Peru that Belaunde and Lourdes Flores held talks during the last year about forming an alliance. According to Juan Carlos Tafur, Flores Nano “invited” Belaunde to be first vice-president in her presidential slate. The deal fell through, however, because Flores did not agree to Belaunde’s request to include a handful of “independents” in Unidad Nacional’s congressional list.
For Augusto Alvarez Rodrich, the improvised selection of pre-candidates in Peru Posible is a characteristic of Toledo and his party that contributes to the perception that politics is a means for obtaining personal gains and privileges.
Source: Carlin, La Republica, December 13, 2005
The following alliances registered with the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) on December 10, 2005:
– Alianza Electoral Frente del Centro (Acción Popular, Coordinadora Nacional de Independientes, Somos Perú)
– Alianza por el Futuro (Cambio 90, Nueva Mayoria)
– Concertación Descentralista (Partido por la Democracia Social (PDS), Movimiento Humanista Peruano)
– Unidad Nacional (Partido Popular Cristiano, Renovacion, Fuerza Radical)
– Fuerza Democratica (Fuerza Democrática, Fuerza Loretana)
December 19, 2005 is the deadline to register presidential slates for political parties and alliances.
So far there are 31 political parties ready to run and 14 in the waiting list, representing one of the largest contingent of electoral hopefuls in Peruvian political history.
Source: La Republica, 11 de diciembre del 2005
Source: La Republica, 11 de diciembre del 2005
Source: El Comercio, December 11, 2005
Ollanta Humala surges to second place (22%), only 3 points behind Lourdes Flores (25%). Flores has consolidated the female vote, is perceived as the candidate most able to promote education and investment, and interested in helping people. Humala is perceived as the “law and order” candidate with a direct connection with people. We have to watch Humala to see if he can win the “trust and faith” of the masses that Max Weber saw as characteristic of Caesarist leaders.
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado en exclusiva para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 3-8 de diciembre del 2005. Universo: 1596 personas en las principales ciudades del Peru.
Source: El Comercio, December 11, 2005
Cambio 90 and Nueva Mayoria will run together as “Alliance for the Future”. Keiko Fujimori will become the president of this alliance with a slate that will not include former president Alberto Fujimori. Si Cumple’ strategy is to run separately and keep Alberto Fujimori as its presidential candidate.
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2005 Global Corruption Barometer
Source: La Republica, December 10, 2005
The 2005 Global Corruption Barometer, based on a Gallup International survey conducted on behalf of Transparency International for International Anti-Corruption Day 2005, reveals widespread concern about corruption around the globe.
Source: La Republica, December 10, 2005
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima. Barometro Nacional pre-electoral, December 3-4, 2005.
Sample: 1966 men and women, 18-70 years old, from all socio-economic levels in urban and rural areas in 22 provinces of Peru: Arequipa, Cajamarca, Callao, Cañete, Chiclayo, Chincha, Cusco, Huancayo, Huánuco, Huaral, Huaraz, Ica, Lima, Maynas, Jaén, Coronel Portillo, Piura, San Román, Puno, Tacna, Trujillo y Santa Download file
Source: La Republica, December 10, 2005
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de la Universidad de Lima. Barometro Social: III Encuesta Anual sobre confianza en las instituciones, Lima Metropolitana y el Callao, 5-6 de noviembre del 2005.
Sample: 620 people, 18-70 years old from all socio-economic levels in Metropolitan Lima and Callao Download file
Jeanette Enmanuel has resigned as leader of Peru Posible only days after she was proclaimed the new presidential candidate by party stalwarts Carlos Bruce and Javier Reátegui.
Source: La Republica
Frente de Centro is considering 3 women for the second vice-presidency: Rosario Sasieta (“Senora Ley”), Patricia Donayre (former Frente Independiente Moralizador) and Maricarmen Alva (niece of Javier Alva Orlandini). They are all members of Acción Popular.
Source: Archivo diario La República
Si Cumple-Cambio 90-Nueva Mayoria are evaluating withdrawing Alberto Fujimori’s presidential candidacy and considering Chavez as an alternative.
The Office of the Registrar of Political Organizations (OROP) in the National Electoral Board (JNE) vetoed the presidential candidacy of Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori wants to run as candidate for the alliance Si Cumple-Cambio 90-Nueva Mayoria but has been banned from holding public office. The alliance has until Saturday, December 10, to present an alternative candidate.
After a long wait, the Executive called general elections to take place on Sunday, April 9, 2006. If no presidential candidate achieves more than 50 percent of the vote, a second round would take place on Sunday, May 7 2006.
Photo: Rocío Orellana, La República
During the 43th Annual Executives Conference (CADE 2005), Alan García, APRA’s presidential candidate, presented his book Sierra Exportadora. The book is a proposal to develop the agro-industry in the Peruvian highlands. The implementation of such plan would take 5 years and US$ 102 million.
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Bazo, Fabiola and Maxwell A. Cameron. 2000. Dilemmas of the Opposition, Peru Election 2000: A Public Education Website. Download file
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Levitsky, Steven and Cameron, Maxwell A. 2003. Democracy without parties? Political parties and regime change in Fujimori’s Peru, Latin American Politics and Society, Fall 2003.
On December 4, 2005, 119 representatives from Union por el Peru (UPP) voted unanimously to form an alliance with Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP) that will position Ollanta Humala as the presidential candidate for the alliance UPP-PNP.
Ernesto Velit Granda has left UPP for considering this party decision “antidemocratic, improvised and populist.” In a press release Javier Perez de Cuellar, founder of UPP and presidential candidate in 1995, has stated that he is retired from party politics and that he will not participate or be a judge of UPP’s decisions.
Fernando Tuesta has called for the executive to “observe” the law that would make the rulings of the National Election Board final. Any such law would leave citizens whose fundamental rights have been violated without recourse under the law and is therefore an invitation to the abuse of power. No state institution is above the law or the constitution.
(Refer to our Rule of Law archives for more items on this discussion)
Para sorpresa y desacuerdo de muchos partidarios de Perú Posible (PP) Incluido Juan Sheput, Javier Reátegui y Carlos Bruce, miembros de la plana mayor de este partido, presentaron a la empresaria naturista Jeanette Enmanuel como la virtual candidata presidencial de PP. Esta postulacion debera ser ratificada en el congreso partidario el 11 de diciembre. Desconocida hasta el momento en el plano político, se sabe que en la década de los setentas militó en movimientos estudiantiles de izquierda y que tras vivir desde 1978 exiliada junto a su esposo en Suecia, en 1996 fundó Agroindustrias Floris y creó la marca Santa Natura, empresa exportadora de productos naturistas a Europa, Asia y Estados Unidos. Emmanuel ha declarado a los medios que:
– si sale electa no recibira sueldo;
– que no tiene compromiso con Peru Posible como partido;
– que otros partidos la llamaron pero solo le ofrecieron ser congresista, y como congresista “podia hacer poco”.
Report on a Round Table ‘Fujimori: From Fugitive to Candidate?’
By Fabiola Bazo and Maxwell A. Cameron
Yale Center for International and Area Studies, New Haven, CT,
December 2, 2005
On December 1, 2005 a round table discussion was held at Yale University sponsored by The Council on Latin American and Iberian Studies, The Latin American Series at Yale Law School, The Orville H. Schell Jr. Center for International Human Rights, the Canadian Studies Committee, and the Yale Center for International and Area Studies (YCIAS). The topic was “Fujimori: From Fugitive to Candidate?”
Participants included: Enrique Mayer (Yale University); Julio Carrion (University of Delaware); Natalia Sobrevilla Perea (Yale University); Julia Maria Urrunaga (Yale University); Andres Mejia Acosta (University of British Columbia); Akira Watanabe (University of Tokyo); Maxwell A. Cameron (Yale University/UBC); Fabiola Bazo (Yale University).
Enrique Mayer introducing panelists
Lourdes Flores keeps a clear lead in Lima and Callao with 30.4%, followed by Ollanta Humala (14.3%), Valentin Paniagua (10.7%) and Alan Garcia. We could say there is a technical tie between Humala, Paniagua and Garcia due to the size of the sample. 46.3% of people have decided who to vote for.
Sample: 700 people in 37 districts in Lima and Callao interviewed between November 28-30, 2005. Download file
On Thursday, December 1, Congress, in committee of the whole, approved — after a long delay and extensive public discussions among the JNE, TC, members of Congress and constitutional experts (refer to our archives), that decisions made by the National Electoral Jury could not be reviewed by the Constutitional Tribunal. Congress voted: 64 votes in favour, 7 against and 4 abstentions. This decision would guarantee jurisdictional autonomy and independence to the JNE, according to Congress.
Refer to pages 123-133, Diario de Debates del Congreso, December 1, 2005. Download file
Mientras que el presidente de Avanza País, Pedro Cenas manifestó al diario Peru 21 que la agrupación presentará como precandidato a Antauro Humala, preso actualmente en el penal de Piedras Gordas, en Ancón; el abogado de Víctor Polay Campos, informó al diario La Primera que el dirigente del Movimiento Revolucionario Túpac Amaru (MRTA) aceptó ser candidato a la Presidencia de la República por el Movimiento Electoral Revolucionario, aunque su llamado “a la unión de las izquierdas” fue rechazado por Patria Roja y el Partido por la Democracia Social.
Lourdes Flores keeps the lead, but lost 8 points (from 34% to 26.7%) in the last IDICE poll. Valentin Paniagua showed a recovery of close to 6 points (from 8.4% to 14.1%). Humala continues his momentum (from 4.9% to 12.3%). If a second round takes place, Lourdes Flores would win comfortably over Humala and Garcia. Garcia continues stagnated.
Sample: 860 people in Lima and Callao.
Source: ollantaperu.com
Why Ollanta Humala may be more than a flash in the pan
By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 30, 2005
On November 15, Ollanta Humala presented more than 295,000 signatures to register his party with JNE. In record time (see chart), ONPE took only 10 working days to verify the signatures supporting the application to register the Partido Nacionalista Peruano. So far, 30 political parties are registered to run for April elections.
Source: La República, 30 de noviembre del 2005
Congress has decided to hand 17 charges (denuncias constitucionales) against former president Fujimori to the judiciary (Fiscalia de la Nacion).
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ONPE: Requirements to be a presidential candidate
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Yale University Holds Forum on Fujimori
The Yale Center for International and Area Studies will hold a forum on Fujimori on December 1, 2005.
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Crabtree, John
Crabtree, John. 2005. <a href="http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-protest/andean_politics_3032.jsp”>An Andean crisis of democracy , posted on November 2005, Open Democracy: Free Thinking for the World Download file
Con un notable repunte en las últimas semanas, el líder del Partido Nacionalista Peruano, Ollanta Humala, llegó al segundo lugar en intención de voto, con 15.0%, y desplazó a Alan García, que ostenta 13.4%, a solo 10.6 puntos de la candidata de Unidad Nacional, Lourdes Flores, quien sigue en el primer puesto.
La encuesta de la Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercados y Opinión Pública (CPI) fue realizada entre el 19 y el 23 de noviembre en 11 departamentos, 14 provincias y 85 distritos a 1,739 personas de todo el país. Download file
Ideario del Movimiento Nacionalista Peruano (MNP), designed by Isaac Humala, father of Ollanta and Antauro. Among several documents, this manifesto provides an etnocacerista definition of the Peruvian society, a government policy platform for 2006-2011, and a national development program for Peru (2006-2030).
By Maxwell A. Cameron
November 26, 2005
A Barometro poll by the Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima finds Ollanta Humala eating into the support for Lourdes Flores Nano in Lima.
This poll should be read with caution. A sample size of 631 people is very small. All of them are from the Lima/Callao area, so this is not a national poll. A margin of error of 4 percent means that most of the candidates are indistinguishable.
There are, nonetheless, two things worth highlighting in this poll. First, it shows Humala in a statistical tie (with Garcia and Paniagua, both of which fall within the margin of error) for second place in Lima. Humala is thought to be strongest outside Lima in the provinces. Second, it suggests Humala is taking votes away from Flores in the poorest strata (D and E).
At the current moment, there are definite similarities with the 1990 election. A candidate strongest among affluent voters is in first place. With APRA looking like a possible contender for second place, voters are casting around for someone else. Humala is the outsider who seems capable of winning the sympathies of voters who are socially and politically excluded.
Of course, there are differences. Humala insists he is not an candidate without a program, and indeed his ideological profile is very different from Fujimori. Flores is not the disaster that Vargas Llosa was as a candidate–for one thing, she listens to the voters. Nevertheless, it is striking how the Peruvian political system tends to generate these sorts of contests. The reasons would appear to be structural.
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima, Barometro Noviembre 2005
Sample: 631 people in Metropolitan Lima and Callao, November 19-20, 2005.
Source: La Republica, November 26, 2005.
Source: El Comercio, November 26, 2005
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Interview with Isaac Humala
Former vice-president Maximo San Roman withdrew his candidacy in the presidential elections of April 2006 following a decision by his party, Avanza País, to include extreme nationalist Antauro Humala on the list without prior consultation.
Antauro Humala, brother of Ollanta Humala, led an assault on a police station in Andahuaylas earlier this year.
Tras haber lanzado su candidatura el pasado 6 de noviembre a las elecciones presidenciales del 2006, el ex-vicepresidente de la república Máximo San Román, anunció su retiro debido a que su partido, Avanza País, no le consultó sobre la incorporación de Antauro Humala.
Current Peruvian Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kucynski has written a commentary on The Fujimori Legacy, about to be published by The Penn State University Press. The volume is edited by Julio Carrion.
According to a poll conducted by Datum Internacional which was published this week in Lima, ex-president Alberto Fujimori could make it into a second round with Lourdes Flores Nano. This assumes he is allowed to run in the elections of April 2006, and that seems both unlikely and, according to this poll, unwanted by most of the voters.
According to the survey of 1118 subjects, which was conducted between November 12 and 15, 2005, including the major cities of Peru, Fujimori and Alan Garcia are the two candidates with the highest negative ratings (68 and 69 percent respectively), while Flores Nano has both the highest overall approval rating (57 percent) and the lowest negative rating (36 percent).
A comparison with previous surveys shows that, with 30 percent of the decided vote, Flores Nano has pulled well ahead of the rest of the pack. Garcia, Paniagua, and Humala are all stuck within 2 or 3 percentage points of each other (16, 15, and 13 percent respectively). Humala continues to trend upward.
The poll also shows that Fujimori would get 17 percent of the decided vote were an election held in which he was allowed to run. That would place him in a runoff with Flores Nano who, in this scenario, would capture 25 percent of the vote. Unfortunately, the survey did not ask how voters would cast their second-round ballots. In all other runoffs, however, Flores Nano wins.
The survey has other notable findings:
— Jamie Salinas has lost momentum
— Only 3 percent of the electorate would never vote for Flores Nano
— 30 percent of the voters think Flores Nano will win
— Flores Nano is overwhelmingly popular (64 percent) among women
— Nearly half the voters (47 percent) have decided for whom they will vote
— 65 percent say Fujimori should not be allowed to run
— 70 percent say he is guilty of the charges against him
— 59 percent say his trip to Chile has hurt him
— Fujimori’s support is strongest among the D and E voters (the poorest strata)
— 74 percent of voters prefer democracy to any other system of government
Según una encuesta de la firma Datum Internacional publicada en Lima, el ex presidente Alberto Fujimori acompañaría en una segunda vuelta a Lourdes Flores Nano en caso de que fuera habilitado para participar en las elecciones de abril del 2006. Datum evaluo dos escenarios, uno con Fujimori participando y otro sin su presencia.
Muestra: 1,118 personas en Piura, Lambayeque, La Libertad, Ancash, Ayacucho, Junin, Arequipa, Cuzco, Puno, Loreto y las provincias de Lima y Callao. El sondeo se realizó entre el 12 y el 15 de noviembre del 2005, despues de la llegada de Fujimori a Chile. Download file
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CPI October 22-28, 2005
Compania Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinion Publica (CPI). Estudio de Opinion Publica a nivel nacional, 22 al 28 de octubre del 2005. Muestra: 2820 adultos en 16 departamentos (38 provincias). El estudio fue realizado en exclusividad para Radio Programas del Peru (RPP) y el diario Correo Download file
Era un hecho. Alan García, líder del Partido Aprista Peruano, fue elegido como el candidato presidencial por tercera vez tras ganar las elecciones internas de su partido a los precandidatos apristas Luis Alvarado Contreras, Angela Valdez Olivera y Nancy García Carrillo. En Lima sufragaron alrededor de 30 mil personas y en provincias más de 100 mil electores en las 1,697 mesas instaladas en el país. De acuerdo a las primeras proyecciones, el 50% de los votos emitidos en Lima y el 25% de los votos en provincias indican que el 96% eligió a García como el candidato aprista para las próximas elecciones presidenciales del 2006.
Yves Tiberghien is a political scientist at The University of British Columbia, currently enjoying a postdoctoral fellowship at Harvard University. As an exceptionally knowledgeable observer of Japanese politics, we asked him to explain why the Japanese public and political leadership seems to have such a positive view of Fujimori.
Barometro Social Octubre 2005: Campanas Electorales Estudio 287. Sample: 614 adults in 35 districts in Metropolitan Lima and Callao from all socio-economic levels. Survey was conducted on Saturday, October 29 and Sunday, October 30, 2005 Download file
Note: this survey was conducted by Universidad de Lima before the arrival of Alberto Fujimori to Chile.
Views from the streets of Puno about Alberto Fujimori’s arrest in Chile. Interesting link: Altiplano Politico