Archive for the ‘Polls – Results’ Category
Encuestas de Conecta y CPI muestran las preferencias del electorado para el Congreso
Source: Perú 21, 23 de febrero del 206
Tras los resultados de la última encuesta de Conecta Asociados que elaboró en exclusiva para Perú.21, de los 25 partidos políticos que presentaron su lista parlamentaria, solamente 7 superarían la valla electoral para obtener representatividad en el Congreso, siendo lo más resaltante el empate técnico entre el APRA y Unidad Nacional con un 16% aproximadamente; mientras que el sondeo de CPI reveló las tendencias en el voto preferencial en el que también estos partidos obtendrían en Lima los primeros lugares de las preferencias electorales.
CONECTA National Poll – February 15-17, 2006: Lourdes Flores Maintains Lead and Dispute for Second Place Continues
Conecta Asociados SAC, Informe Opinión Febrero 2006 for Peru.21. Survey covers 33 provinces in 16 departaments, including rural areas. 2,111 individuals interviewed between February 15-17, 2006. Margin of error +/-2.1. Download file
Source: Peru.21, February 22, 2006
DATUM National Poll February 10-13, 2006: Lourdes Flores 29%
Source: La República, 17 de febrero del 2006
Según el último sondeo a nivel nacional realizado por la empresa Datum, Lourdes Flores Nano, candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), se mantiene en el primer lugar de las preferencias electorales con un 29%. Ollanta Humala se mantiene segundo con 24% a una distancia de 9% de Alan García, que tiene 15%. Valentín Paniagua se mantiene cuarto con un alejado 8%. La encuesta revela que el 55% de los ciudadanos ya decidió su voto, un 23% no se decide entre 2 ó 3 candidatos y hay un 12% de indecisos. Un 10% piensa votar en blanco.
Este sondeo fue realizado entre el 10 y 13 de febrero a un total de 2444 personas en 17 departamentos a nivel nacional, incluyéndose a la provincia constitucional de Callao. El margen de error del estudio es de +/- 2% y cuenta con un nivel de confianza de 95%.
Acceda a la encuesta completa en pdf
IDICE Lima & Callao Poll, February 10-11, 2006: Only 5 Political Parties would Get Seats in Congress
Source: La Republica, February 16, 2006
Source: La Primera, 16 de febrero del 2006
Survey made by Idice del Peru Intencion de Voto al Congreso Download file
Sample: 1,020 people in Lima and 120 in Callao interviewed between February 10-11, 2006. Margin of error: +/- 4.5%.
Alfredo Torres: Ollanta Humala’s Teflon
During an interview with Cadena Peruana de Noticias, Alfredo Torres, general manager of APOYO Opinion y Mercado, argued that Ollanta Humala’s support base is unexpectedly strong. The candidate seems to enjoy a certain “teflon effect,” in the sense that the attacks against him have not had a major impact on voter intentions.
Torres also argued that Lourdes Flores’s campaign strategy may need some rethinking as a result of the 2 percent decline in support she has registered in the last poll. Internal disputes could weaken her candidacy. Moreover, she is not making concrete proposals like Alan Garcia and Valentin Paniagua.
Mirko Lauer on the Undecided Vote
According to Mirko Lauer, the most important news in the recent APOYO poll is the 10 percent increase in the number of undecided voters over the past month.
APOYO National Poll, February 8-10, 2006
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado en exclusiva para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 8-10 de febrero del 2006. Universo: 2,000 personas en zonas urbanas y rurales del Peru. Download file
APOYO’s reply to Controversy to Presentation of Data
Source: La República, 14 de febrero del 2006
The head of APOYO, Alfredo Torres, confirmed that the most recent poll, by calculating support for candidates according to the response by decided voters rather than all respondents, concealed a decline in support for Lourdes Flores. When her support is calculated based on all respondents, which is the methodology used in previous surveys, the gap between Flores and Humala narrows from 10 to seven percent.
Alfredo Torres, el director de la empresa encuestadora Apoyo Opinión y Mercados admitió que la interpretación del último sondeo, en el cual se contabilizaron solo los votos válidos no deja claro la caida de intencion de voto hacia Lourdes Flores. Si se hubiesen incluido los votos indecisos (representan 22%), la diferencia entre la candidata de Unidad Nacional y Ollanta Humala hubiese sido de 7 y no de 10 puntos. APOYO continuará en sus próximos sondeos contando únicamente el voto válido.
Alan Garcia’s Harsh Criticisms of APOYO Poll
Alan García, candidato por el APRA, acusó a la empresa Apoyo de manipular sus sondeos, considerando solo los votos válidos, para favorecer a Lourdes Flores.
APOYO National Poll: Candidates Views
Candidatos de las principales agrupaciones políticas opinaron al diario Perú 21 sobre los resultados de la última encuesta de Apoyo Opinión y Mercado realizada entre el 8 y 10 de febrero pasado a nivel nacional.
Alberto Adrianzen and Juan Sheput Critize Results of Latest APOYO Poll
Comenzaron los cuestionamientos a la última encuesta de Apoyo. El analista político Alberto Adrianzén indicó que es un error hablar de votos válidos cuando ha aumentado el número de indecisos, creándose una falsa ilusión de crecimiento de la candidata de Unidad Nacional; mientras que el dirigente de Perú Posible Juan Sheput, denunció una “manipulación grosera” por resaltar arbitrariamente la candidatura de Lourdes Flores al considerarse solo los votos válidos omitiéndose los blancos y viciados.
APOYO Poll – Congressional Preferences: Five Parties with Chance to Obtain Seats
Source: El Comercio, 13 de febrero del 2006
Según la última encuesta de El Comercio elaborada por Apoyo con entrevistas a dos mil personas en ciudades y el campo a nivel nacional, sólo 5 grupos pasarían la valla electoral (que es de 4%) para colocar más representantes en el Congreso: Unidad Nacional, APRA, Unión por el Perú, Frente de Centro y Alianza por el Futuro, a la vez que guardan algunas posibilidades Perú Posible y Justicia Nacional, ambos con 3% en dicha encuesta.
Preliminary Thoughts on the APOYO Poll
Maxwell A. Cameron
February 12, 2006
In broad-brush strokes, the recent APOYO poll confirms the main trends that have recently been observable in the election process. The survey has been much anticipated because it covers both rural and urban areas, includes 2,000 respondents, was conducted by the most respected polling firm in Peru, and was commissioned and is distributed by the nation’s leading newspaper, El Comercio.
The poll finds that the candidacy of Ollanta Humala, which reached as high as 32 percent in the polls in early January, has stalled at around 25 percent. Front-runner Lourdes Flores has sustained a strong 10 percent point lead over Humala for the past fortnight, while García has flat-lined with about 17 percent support. Nothing here is especially unexpected.
The most novel and interesting information to be gleaned from the APOYO poll lies in the details.
In the first place, it is important to note what has not happened. Humala has not been destroyed by the allegations that he committed human rights abuses in Madre Mia in 1992 (for a summary of the allegations, see the commentary by Fernando Rospigliosi below). The last APOYO poll was conducted on Wednesday to Friday, the 25th to the 27th of January, shortly after the first denunciation of human rights abuses were aired by Panorama on Sunday January 22. Afterwards, on Sunday January 29, there were further reports in Panorama, Reporte Semanal. In addition, newspapers like La Republica carried stories on Humala’s alleged human rights abuses on the Sunday and Monday of February 5-6. Peru.21 also published photos of Humala in Madre Mia on Tuesday and Wednesday of February 7-8, which coincides with this poll (conducted on Wednesday to Friday, February 8-10). Notwithstanding the seriousness of these denunciations, the support for Humala has dropped by only 2 points between the two polls. It may have dropped more if the January 27 poll, conducted only in cities, underreported support for Humala.
Only 9 percent of those who were interviewed had not heard the allegations against Humala. 41 percent said they thought the accusations were true, while 28 percent thought they were false, and 22 percent did not answer the question. Here there is clearly room for hardening of opinion—either in the direction of greater conviction that Humala is guilty or that he is innocent or it does not matter.
The gap between Humala and García has narrowed from 11 to 8 percent, as Humala has slipped from 27 to 25 percent and García has risen from 16 to 17 percent. There is now a race for second place between these two candidates (see commentary in La Republica by Carlos Reyna below). This explains, in part, Humala’s attack on Garcia (he should step aside because he has already had the chance to govern) and García’s angry response (Humala should turn himself into the authorities for his human rights abuses).
Martha Chávez has consolidated her position as the number 5 candidate. She now has about 6 percent, placing her just behind Paniagua who has slid from 10 to 8 percent. Paniagua’s slide was predictable and may be irreversible. Chávez is unlikely to emerge as a strong contender, but she may be taking back Fujimorista votes that were bleeding to Humala at an earlier stage. Chávez may be taking a small number of feminine votes from Flores.
Flores is the front-runner almost entirely by virtue of her popularity with women. She has a whopping 43 percent of the female vote, while Humala is the narrow front-runner among men with 31 percent of the male vote. Gender is turning out to be a major factor in this election. Flores also has a big plurality of the youth vote (40 percent of those between 18 and 24 years of age), and has 43 percent of the support of those living in Lima, compared with 20 percent for Humala in the metropolitan capital.
If gender is a factor, so is region. Humala is strongest in the southern and central highlands and the jungle, where he has 44, 36 and 30 percent respectively. Flores dominates Arequipa and the southern coast, and does well in the northern highlands, with 40 percent and 28 percent respectively. García’s strength remains in the “solid north,” the only place where he is in contention for first spot with 30 percent. Overall, the support for Flores across the country is impressive. Only in the southern highlands is she really behind with only 20 percent (less than half Humala’s support).
The battlegrounds regions are: the north (Flores vs. García); the northern highlands (all three front runners are close); the central highlands (Humala vs. Flores); and the jungle (Flores vs Humala).
Perhaps more than gender and region, however, the polarization in this election is around class. As one moves from the wealthier to the poorer strata (from groups A to E in the categories used by public opinion polling), support for Flores gets weaker–from 65 percent in A, to 44 percent in B, and roughly one third (between 33 and 31 percent) of the vote in the groups C through E. The inverse holds for Humala. He has the support of only 6 percent in A, 15 in B, and between 23 and 32 percent in C through E. The war between Humala and Flores will be fought by votes in C, D, and E, the vas majority of the electorate.
There is something about the socioeconomic breakdown of this poll that is puzzling. For all the candidates except Humala and Flores, the overall level of support is something roughly equivalent to the mean score in the votes in sectors D and E. For example, Paniagua has 9 percent in D, 7 percent in E, and his overall support is 8 percent. The same is true for Chávez and García. Yet the overall support for Humala and Flores is closer to the mean between groups C and D. Flores has 35 percent overall, which is slightly above the mean of her vote in sectors C and D. I am a little surprised that she has 35 percent overall when she does not reach that level in C, D, or E. Her overwhelming support in sectors A and B must explain the difference. Humala, on the other hand, has an overall support level of 25 percent even though his support in sectors D and E (presumably the largest groups) is 29 and 32 percent.
The obvious question is how well does the sample map onto the actual socioeconomic structure of the country?
APOYO National Poll, February 8-10, 2006: Dispute for Second Place
Source: El Comercio, February 12, 2006
Source: El Comercio, February 12, 2006
Sample: 2000 people in 171 districts in113 localities in 78 provinces. Margin of error: +/- 2.2%
IDICE National Poll, February 3-5, 2006: Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala in Technical Tie for Second Place
Source: La República, 8 de febrero del 2006
Sample: 4,850 households. Margin of error +/- 4.5%
IMA Urban Poll, January 19-28, 2006: Lourdes Flores Maintains Lead
Source: La Republica, 7 de febrero del 2006
Sample: 6,351 individuals in 19 cities interviewed between January 19-28, 2006. Download file
IMA Lima & Callao Poll, January 25-27, 2006: Lourdes Flores 31.9%
Source: La República, 1 de febrero del 2006
Encuesta realizada a nivel de Lima y Callao el 25 y 27 de enero, en un universo de 700 entrevistados. Download file
Radical Humala Loses Lead in Peru Polls
By Hal Weitzman
Financial Times
January 31, 2006
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¿Por qué ha descendido Ollanta Humala en las encuestas?
Source: La República, 31 de enero del 2006
Tras dos semanas encumbrado en el primer lugar de diversas encuestas de opinión, se ha producido un estancamiento y caída en la candidatura de Ollanta Humala por diversos motivos: su vinculación con Hugo Chávez, una serie de denuncias de abusos contra los DDHH y las pugnas en su partido por la lista parlamentaria.
APOYO y Analistas y Consultores: Lourdes Flores en el primer lugar y tendencia al descenso de Ollanta Humala
Source: La República, 30 de enero del 2006
Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado: 1,600 personas en 30 provincias de todo el país.
Analistas & Consultores: 2,000 personas en 26 ciudades del país.
Los programas periodísticos “Cuarto Poder” de América TV y “La ventana indiscreta” de Frecuencia Latina difundieron dos encuestas a nivel nacional ratificando a Lourdes Flores Nano, candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), como primera en la intención de voto con resultados muy similares. En la encuesta de Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado alcanzó el 30% mientras que en la de Analistas & Consultores obtuvo 30.9%.
Barometro National Pre-electoral, January 20-22, 2006: Lourdes Flores Maintains National Lead (clearly in Lima and Urban Areas). Ollanta Humala Leads in Rural areas
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima, Estudio 297, Barometro Nacional Pre-electoral Download file
Sample: 2,003 individuals in urban and rural areas in 20 regions, 34 provinces y 133 districts. Sample represents 69.79% of the electoral population.
PUCP Lima & Callao Poll, January 20-21, 2006 – Part II
Source: La República, 28 de enero del 2006
Fernando Tuesta and Manuel Saavedra Explain Disparities among CPI and PUCP Polls results
Contradictions among Polls
Serious doubts are being raised about the validity of polls in this election campaign. A recent poll by the Catholic University placed Lourdes Flores at 38 percent in Lima and Callao. This is a level of support significantly higher than what other polls have found. Polls have a checkered history in Peru, in part because the deep cleaveages in Peruvian society exacerbate the different results that are obtained according to who is polled, where and how they are polled, who asks the questions, how the questions are framed, and what the respondent thinks the pollster wants to hear. Nonetheless, the high level of support for Flores in Lima seems intuitive, in part because Flores seems to have become a sort of default option for many voters.
An interesting editorial by Mirko Lauer in La Republica today picks up this theme. He suggests that Flores has benefited from a migration of voters from other candidates as they falter. Her challenge is to retain these votes over the rest of the campaign.
Source: La Republica, January 27, 2006
PUCP Lima & Callao Poll, January 20-21, 2006: Lourdes Flores in Clear Lead with 38%
Source: La República, 26 de enero del 2006
En el segundo sondeo realizado por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP) sobre la intención de voto, la candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores, aparece con el 38% de intención de votos, mientras que Ollanta Humala con solo el 16%.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 745 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años en 31 distritos de Lima Metropolitana y Callao, con un error y nivel de confianza estimados de +3,58%, un nivel de confianza del 95% y 50-50% de heterogeneidad bajo el supuesto de muestreo aleatorio simple.
CPI National Poll, January 21-24, 2006: Lourdes Flores Nano 28.8%
La encuesta de la Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercados y Opinión Pública (CPI) fue realizada entre el 21 y el 24 de enero en 50 provincias sobre un universo de 1,950 entrevistados.
Fernando Tuesta on PUCP Latest Poll
PUCP Lima & Callao Poll, January 2006: Lourdes Flores in Clear Lead with 38%
En el segundo sondeo realizado por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP) sobre la intención de voto, la candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores, aparece con el 38% de intención de votos, mientras que Ollanta Humala con solo el 16%.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 745 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años en 31 distritos de Lima Metropolitana y Callao, con un error y nivel de confianza estimados de +3,58%, un nivel de confianza del 95% y 50-50% de heterogeneidad bajo el supuesto de muestreo aleatorio simple.
Conecta National Poll – January 12-14, 2006: Perceptions on Nationalism
Conecta Asociados SAC, Informe Opinión Enero 2006. Survey focuses on perceptions on nationalism, democracy and expectations of political change.
Sample: 1,394 individuals in Metropolitan Lima, Callao and 12 cities Download file
Survey by Peruana de Opinión Pública (POP): Lourdes Flores Nano first with 30%
Another polls places Lourdes Flores Nano ahead with 30 percent of the vote, followed by Ollanta Humala with 25 percent. The highest negative ratings are for Alan Garcia (32 percent), followed by Humala (28 percent) and Fernando Olivera (16 percent). Asked who they trust, another way of getting at voter intentions, voters chose Flores (30 percent), Humala (18 percent), Paniagua (11 percent) and Garcia (10 percent).
Según un sondeo a nivel nacional de Peruana de Opinión Pública (POP), la líder de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores Nano, recuperó terreno en las preferencias y se ubicó nuevamente en el primer lugar con un 30% de la intención de voto, seguida de Ollanta Humala con un 25%.
Alan García Pérez, del partido aprista, encabeza el llamado “antivoto” con el 32%, seguido por Humala con el 28% y Fernando Olivera con el 16%; mientras que entre los personajes con mayor confianza de la población, Flores Nano ocupa nuevamente el primer lugar con el 30%, Humala con el 18%, Valentín Paniagua con el 11% y García con el 10%.
DATUM National Poll, January13 -14: Lourdes Flores in First Place
Source: La República, 19 de enero del 2006
Encuesta aplicada a 1121 personas a nivel nacional entre el 13 y 14 de enero con un margen de error de +/- 3 %
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IMA Metropolitan Lima & Callao – January 14-15, 2006: Lourdes Flores Maintains Lead
Source: La Primera, 18 de enero del 2006
Encuesta realizada entre el 14 y 15 de enero en 37 distritos de Lima y Callao, bajo la técnica de encuesta personal “cara a cara”. La muestra comprende 700 casos y el nivel de representatividad de Lima Metropolitana es de 97.5%.
APOYO January 11-13, 2006 National Survey: Humala in First Place
Source: El Comercio, January 15, 2006
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado en exclusiva para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 11-13 de enero del 2006. Universo: 1618 personas en las principales ciudades del Peru.
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Ollanta Humala’s Electoral Base
Source: La Republica, January 15, 2006
The chart combines the results of January results from IDICE (national) and UNI (Metropolitan Lima and Callao) polls with Datum (nacional) December poll.
According to Sinesio Lopez (sociologist) and Luis Benavente (pollster), the poorest support Ollanta Humala because policies of elected governments have not had a direct impact in their lives.
UNI Metropolitan Lima & Callao, January Survey
Source: La Republica, January 15, 2006
IDICE National Poll, January 9-12, 2006: Ollanta Humala Takes the Lead
Source: La Republica, January 14, 2006
Sample: 4,950 households. Margin of error +/- 4.5%
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich on Quality of Polls
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich says there are phoney polls circulating these days. We should all take note. Alvarez Rodrich has a solid reputation as an analyst, and these are deeply troubling accusations. While shocking, such claims are not entirely surprising; even the best polls are often conducted in a manner that is less than fully transparent. That said, there appear to be particular problems with the IDICE poll. The story we quoted from La Republica raised questions at about the remarkably large size of the sample. Other survey researchers have also raised questions.
DATUM Poll, December 16-19, 2005
Source: La Republica, December 29, 2005
DATUM Poll, December 16-19, 2005: Flores Looses Momentum and Humala Continues Rising
DATUM Internacional. Estudio de Opinion Publica Electoral: 8va encuesta nacional de opinion publica 2005 – Download file
Sample: 1144 interviews between December 16-19, 2005 in Metropolitan Lima, Callao, Cusco, Ancash, Loreto, Piura, Arequipa, Junin, Ayacucho, La Libertad, Puno y Lambayeque. Margin of error: +/-3.0%.
IDICE National Poll, December 19-23, 2005: Tie among Humala, Flores and Garcia
Source: La República, Dic 27 2005
Sample: 4,950 households in 37 provinces between December 19-23, 2005.
The study was supported by Universidad Particular Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Margin of error: +/- 4.5%
IMA December 16-18, 2005 – Lima & Callao: Flores Reaches a Ceiling, Humala Maintains Second Place, Salinas and Belaunde Rise
Source: La Republica, December 24, 2005
Sample: 700 people in Lima and Callao. Download file
Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria Poll – Metropolitan Lima & Callao, December 17, 2005
Source: La Republica, December 21, 2005
Sample: 1200 people in Metropolitan Lima and Callao.
The table above compares the results from the Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad de Ingeniería (UNI)and the ones from La Catolica’ survey that has a smaller universe (607 people).
Universidad Catolica Poll- Metropolitan Lima & Callao, December 9-11, 2005
Instituto de Opinion Publica de la Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru. Reporte de Opinion Publica, Diciembre 2005.
Sample: 605 men and women, 18-70 years old, in 37 districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao (not including beach resorts–balnearios). Survey was conducted between December 9-11, 2005.
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Barometro Nacional December 3-4, 2005: regional distribution of electoral preferences
Source: La Republica, 11 de diciembre del 2005
Barometro Nacional December 3-4, 2005: socio-economic distribution of electoral preferences
Source: La Republica, 11 de diciembre del 2005
APOYO December 3-8, 2005 National Survey: Humala surges
Source: El Comercio, December 11, 2005
Ollanta Humala surges to second place (22%), only 3 points behind Lourdes Flores (25%). Flores has consolidated the female vote, is perceived as the candidate most able to promote education and investment, and interested in helping people. Humala is perceived as the “law and order” candidate with a direct connection with people. We have to watch Humala to see if he can win the “trust and faith” of the masses that Max Weber saw as characteristic of Caesarist leaders.
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado en exclusiva para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 3-8 de diciembre del 2005. Universo: 1596 personas en las principales ciudades del Peru.
Source: El Comercio, December 11, 2005
Barometro Nacional December 3-4, 2005: Lourdes Flores in comfortable lead
Source: La Republica, December 10, 2005
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima. Barometro Nacional pre-electoral, December 3-4, 2005.
Sample: 1966 men and women, 18-70 years old, from all socio-economic levels in urban and rural areas in 22 provinces of Peru: Arequipa, Cajamarca, Callao, Cañete, Chiclayo, Chincha, Cusco, Huancayo, Huánuco, Huaral, Huaraz, Ica, Lima, Maynas, Jaén, Coronel Portillo, Piura, San Román, Puno, Tacna, Trujillo y Santa Download file
Barometro Social November 5-6, 2005: III Annual Survey on trust in institutions
Source: La Republica, December 10, 2005
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de la Universidad de Lima. Barometro Social: III Encuesta Anual sobre confianza en las instituciones, Lima Metropolitana y el Callao, 5-6 de noviembre del 2005.
Sample: 620 people, 18-70 years old from all socio-economic levels in Metropolitan Lima and Callao Download file
IMA November 28-30, 2005 – Lima & Callao: Humala in second place
Lourdes Flores keeps a clear lead in Lima and Callao with 30.4%, followed by Ollanta Humala (14.3%), Valentin Paniagua (10.7%) and Alan Garcia. We could say there is a technical tie between Humala, Paniagua and Garcia due to the size of the sample. 46.3% of people have decided who to vote for.
Sample: 700 people in 37 districts in Lima and Callao interviewed between November 28-30, 2005. Download file
IDICE Poll, November 24-27: 8 points decline for Lourdes Flores
Lourdes Flores keeps the lead, but lost 8 points (from 34% to 26.7%) in the last IDICE poll. Valentin Paniagua showed a recovery of close to 6 points (from 8.4% to 14.1%). Humala continues his momentum (from 4.9% to 12.3%). If a second round takes place, Lourdes Flores would win comfortably over Humala and Garcia. Garcia continues stagnated.
Sample: 860 people in Lima and Callao.