Archive for April, 2006
Financial Times Analysis of Peruvian Youth and Election Results
In Peru, children of rich and poor dream of leaving
By Hal Weitzman in Lima
Financial Times on line, April 14 2006 19:08
Acording to Hal Weitzman, “young people in districts such as Villa Maria have long been attracted to the idea of escaping poverty by leaving Peru, but for many, last week’s elections could be the final push they need to do so.” Weitzman argues this feeling is also shared by children of the wealthy in Peru.
Note: You will need a registration to read this article.
Taking the Market for a Ride
In late March emerging market analysts descended upon Peru to assess the state of their investments in the run-up to the election. A number of sources have independently confirmed that there were meetings with prominent Peruvian technocrats, including Fritz Dubois, of the Instituto Peruano de Economia, and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, all of whom offered assurances that everything was going well: they were confident that Lourdes Flores would win and Humala would be stopped. By the end of March it was amply clear that Flores was in trouble. Did Dubois and Kuczynski know something the rest of us did not? Or were they taking the markets for a ride?
Many market analysts figured out that the Dubois/Kuczynski posture was, shall we say, “optimistic.” In an interesting article in the Financial Times, Richard Lapper writes about how the markets were misinformed. “For weeks investment banks and their Peruvian contacts have been blithely assuring clients that Lourdes Flores, the pro-market favourite, was a sure winner in the second round of the contest. But for any observer who occasionally ventured outside the better-off Lima suburbs like San Isidro and Miraflores, it has been obvious for a long time that the 50 per cent of Peruvians earning less than $2 a day were unlikely to vote for a candidate so clearly associated with the interests of Lima-based elites.”
Lack of Seats in Congress Worries UN
According to Xavier Barrón, “The priority is Lourdes. All the rest is of no interest.” The legal spokesperson for UN knows that with fewer than 20 seats in Congress, the UN will have little power unless Flores wins the presidency. Indeed, Barrón threatens to fire anyone who distracts attention from the presidential race by trying to count preferential votes. The fact is, however, that the poor performance of UN outside of Lima is a source of some concern within UN ranks. Most of the projected 19 seats won are from Lima-Callao. APRA got the same percent of presidential votes, but double the number of seats in Congress.
Source: La República, 17 de abril del 2006
Candidates Without Votes
A report in El Comercio focuses on the losers in this election campaign. It lists congressional candidates from some of the smaller parties who have received as few as one or two preferential votes.
With 55 percent of the votes counted, one candidate did surprisingly well: from his prison cell in Piedras Gordas, and with little access to the media, Antauro Humala has won 14.605 votes.
The Debate over Constitutional Reform: Henry Pease and Enrique Bernales
Maxwell A. Cameron
April 17, 2006
The idea of a constituent assembly is making headlines again. Some sectors of UPP may want to back away from the idea (UPP members of congress may not wish to contemplate their own obsolescence just yet). Nevertheless, it is a formal part of the UPP platform.
The parties that have gained significant representation in congress (especially APRA and UN) are starting to lay down the gauntlet. They are questioning the necessity of a constituent assembly. Jorge del Castillo, Lourdes Alcorta, and Martha Hildebrandt have all questioned the idea in recent days.
In two separate interviews, two of Peru’s most respected experts on constitutional issues, Henry Pease and Enrique Bernales discuss issue of constitutional reform. They coincide in saying that the existing constitution (and indeed, Peru’s previous constitutions) does not contemplate the idea of a constituent assembly and therefore the only body that could convene such a “supra-constitutional” body (to use Bernales apt term) would be “We the people.” That is, it would have to come from a referendum.
Pease suggests that the existing constitution should first be modified to establish how, who, and under what circumstances a constituent assembly can be convened. In his view, the rule of law means acting within the constitution and if the constitution does not state how to convene a constituent assembly this should be figured out within the existing legal framework.
Another possibility is that an Humala government would force a confrontation with the congress over constitutional reform. It would bully congress into submission (using the threat of dissolution). Congress would go along or face its own extinction. As Pease notes, were the initiative presented by the Prime Minister as a matter of confidence, this could be done—though it would require the congress to be foolish enough to censure a PM twice.
Does the UPP have the convening power necessary to call a referendum, win a majority, and create a constituent assembly? Hard to say.
Humala’s 30 percent of the vote in the first round does not seem like a powerful mandate for change. One of the consequences of ballotage, however, is that it gives the executive a sense of having won a majority of the popular vote, even in the absence of a majority in congress. This is supposed to inoculate the system against coups, but it can also encourage hyper-presidentialism—meaning, a tendency for the president to want to bypass courts and congress on majoritarian grounds.
One could an eventual Humala government, fresh from a second round victory, insisting on a referendum to convene a constituent assembly and using the sense of momentum provided by a second round victory to create a force for change. Chavez did it in 1998-1999. Bernales makes a good point: this would take time. In fact, Chavez devoted virtually the entire period form 1998-2000 in a process of constitutional reform. One of the reasons for the flurry of decrees in 2001 (which is part of what prompted the opposition that culminated in general strikes and a coup attempt in 2002) was the sense that the social agenda had lagged due to efforts to create the Bolivarian constitution.
The alternative would be to modify the constitution using the faculties attributed to the congress by the existing constitution. The trouble with this that recent experience is not encouraging. However, as Bernales notes, between UPP, APRA and UN there may just be enough support to return to the 1979 constitution. Perhaps this is the formula.
Public Opinion Polls Under the Spotlight
The president of the National Election Board, Enrique Mendoza, following recommendations made by the OAS, has called attention to the diffusion of public opinion polls in the week prior to elections. The law forbids the distribution of polls in that period, but polls are still conducted and circulate freely on the Internet. Fernando Tuesta, former head of ONPE and now a survey researcher with the Catholic University, says there is no way to prevent polls from circulating outside of Peru.
Shadow of Fredemo
Alvaro Vargas Llosa speaks from personal experience when he says that 24 plus 24 does not equal 48. At least not in politics. In other words, there is no mathematical formula for calculating the votes in a second round election. Alvaro’s father, Mario Vargas Llosa, held a slim lead over Alberto Fujimori in the first round of the election in 1990. Yet he lost overwhelmingly in the second round in part because of a process of polarization that cast the leader of FREDEMO as a candidate of the establishment against an insurgent outsider.
For this reason, Vargas Llosa (hijo) says that Humala should not be underestimated as a second-round candidate. He notes that an alliance between APRA and UN is likely to play into Humala’s hands. These two parties may think they are closing ranks in defense of democracy, but many voters will see it as an example of collusion between members of the establishment against a newcomer. Vargas Llosa also makes another important observation: the Fujimoristas who voted for Keiko Fujimori in Lima (where Humala is weakest) may well pass over to Humala in round two.
The results of a second round are unpredictable. A second round campaign will have a dynamic all of its own, and campaigns matter especially in elections like this. In his regular column in Peru.21, Augusto Alvarez Rodrich makes a similar observation. He warns against the construction of a new FREDEMO.
Ollanta Humala Won a Majority in Madre Mía
Source: La Primera, 17 de abril del 2006
Ollanta Humala appears to have won an absolute majority of the vote in Madre Mia where he commanded a military base in 1992. According to Alfonso Adriánzen Mejía, UPP legal representative in that locality, the preliminary result vindicates Ollanta Humala against alleged human rights abuses.
Here is an idea for some entrepreneurial researcher or survey research firm: send a team to Madre Mia and conduct focus groups to nail down the reasons behind the vote.
ONPE Presidential Results at 90.36%
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.84%
Alan García (Apra) 24.35%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.56%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.79% (about 89,396 votes).
Analysis of Lima Election Results
Carlos Meléndez Guerrero analyzes the performance of Lourdes Flores in the popular sector districts of Lima.
Andrés Oppenheimer Interviews Ollanta Humala
Ollanta Humala was interviewed on television by Andrés Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer has written an article on Humala in El Nuevo Heraldo, reproduced below.
Debate Could be on May 20
According to Luis Nunes, a debate between the candidates in a second round could be held on May 20. He also indicates that the debate would be based on the National Accord. Would Humala agree to this? Apparently the Humala camp has been asking for information on the National Accord.
Unidad Nacional se acerca gracias a votos del extranjero
Source: La República, 17 de abril del 2006
9:30 PM: ONPE Presidential Results at 89.49%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.852%
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.90%
Alan García (Apra) 24.38%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.53%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.85% (about 95,800 votes).
According to Magdalena Chu, chief of ONPE, 100 percent of the votes abroad should be available and computed within the next two days. After that, the Special Election Boards and the National Election Board will have to resolve all outstanding issues. The final official result may not be known until the end of the month. The second round will probably be held on the last Sunday of May or first Sunday of June.
13 Parties Fail to Pass Threshold
As many as 13 parties may not pass the 4 percent electoral threshold necessary to win a seat on congress, including:
FIM
Justicia Nacional
Partido Socialista
Fuerza Democrática
Concertación Descentralista
Alianza para el Progreso
Con Fuerza Perú
Progresemos Perú
Reconstrucción Democrática
Resurgimiento Peruano
Perú Ahora
Movimiento Nueva Izquierda
The jury is still out on Peru Posible and Restauracion Nacional
NDI Prepared to Organize a Presidential Debate
Luis Nunes, director of the National Democratic Institute, proposes a debate between the presidential candidates in the second round.
Jorge Bruce on the Demand for Change
Jorge Bruce has written a characteristically witty and insightful analysis of the election results.
APRA and UN Move Closer
Jorge del Castillo of the APRA and Xavier Barron of Unidad Nacional offered a message of calm to the public, saying both parties will wait for and respect the official results once announced. Both parties recognize that their interests are not served by attacking one another under the spotlight of publicity. A lengthy fight between the two rivals could undermine both and play to the advantage of Ollanta Humala, the two leaders said. The entente may be deeper. An eventual accord between the two parties seems feasible, although premature at this time. In addition to certain programmatic agreements, both sides have a common interest in closing ranks against Humala. This is also a risky strategy, since it casts APRA and UN as traditional parties trying to block an outsider.
Unidad Nacional tendría la mayoría de votos en el extranjero
Source: La República, 16 de abril del 2006
APRA decide retirar impugnaciones
Source: La República, 15 de abril del 2006
Publicistas analizan fortalezas y debilidades de los candidatos
Post-Election Workshop at The Universidad del Pacifico
From left to right: Max Cameron, Fabi Bazo, Taylor Boas, Henry Dietz,
Cynthia McClintock, Aldo Panfichi, Alberto Vergara, Bruno Seminario
POST-ELECTION WORKSHOP:
“Diagnosis of the First Round and Prognosis for the Second Round”
Rapporteur: Maxwell A. Cameron
Universidad del Pacifico
Lima, 12 April 2006
Author’s Note: This report was written with helpful input from Cynthia McClintock, Cynthia Sanborn, Aldo Panfichi and Fabiola Bazo. The author assumes full responsibility for any errors.
Under the auspices of the Centro de Investigación de la Universidad del Pacífico (CIUP), a workshop was held to analyze the results of the April 9 general elections and to consider the results in light of the second round of the presidential elections to be held at the end of May or early June. What follows is a report of the main observations made by the participants in the workshop.
OVERVIEW
At the time of writing, Ollanta Humala had just won about 30 percent of the vote in the first round of Peru’s presidential election. Alan Garcia held a small lead over Lourdes Flores, with 24.4 percent to 23.4 percent. Of the remaining candidates, none came close to the front-runners. As of Friday, April 14, 2006, Most of the 250,000 votes from abroad had not yet been counted, and returns from over 7,000 polling booths were under dispute. As a result, it was impossible to say who would place in the second round runoff against Humala.
With this caveat in mind, participants in the workshop ventured a number of important observations. The speakers tended to agree that the second round would be a bitterly-fought contest. If APRA makes it into the second round, it will be at the fulcrum of politics in Peru, for two reasons. First, voters who do not necessarily like Alan Garcia will have nowhere else to go if they want to prevent Humala from coming to power. In other words, if there is an “Anyone but Humala” coalition, it will benefit APRA. Second, APRA will be a pivotal party in congress. It could govern from the center, appealing to the UN for votes from the right, or to UPP for votes from the left. A contest between Garcia and Humala will also be a contest between a party and a candidate without a party—or perhaps, as a couple of participants noted, a candidate of Peru’s oldest party, the armed forces. The APRA will play a critical role in defining Peru’s destiny over the next few weeks. It brings tremendous political baggage, however, and it will not be easy to convince voters it deserves a “second chance.”
A contest between Flores and Humala would result in a highly polarized campaign pitting Lima (and voters abroad) against the provinces, rich against the poor, left against right. Peruvian voters have demonstrated a mood of protest, which Ollanta Humala successfully exploited. While this mood is not angry enough to produce a landslide victory for Humala, it appears to have caught the right by surprise. Flores seemed unable to shake the impression that she is tied to intransigent advocates of the current economic model, including technocrats in power. The inability of the leaders around Flores to move toward a more centrist position, due largely to internal constraints, prevented a broader alliance that might have encompassed Accion Popular. Current projections suggest few or no gains in congress for Unidad Nacional. At the same time, the left has proven unable to overcome its history of factionalism and its lack of organic connections to the classes and sectors it seeks to represent.
In a second round Ollanta Humala faces a major challenge. He will have to continue to tap into the mood of protest of his core supporters while projecting an image of moderation to the median voter. He may have a harder time competing for that space with Alan Garcia than he would against Flores. He has to add 20 points to his current margin of victory. If Garcia is the contender, Humala will emphasize the Garcia record in power in 1985-1990. He will also have to project some sense of an ability to offer a good government of his own. In some respects, the choice facing voters could be between the option of a Hugo Chavez-style government without the oil rents versus a Lula style social democratic option, complete with the corruption and governance problems that includes. If the contest is with Flores, Humala will still have a tough time competing with Flores for voters who, in the first round, cast ballots for Paniagua’s Frente de Centro or for the Fujimorista Alianza para el Futuro. There is strong antipathy to Humala in both camps.
Candidates Reject Call to Discuss FTA with Toledo
Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia both dismissed Toledo’s call to talk with him about passing the Free Trade Agreement he has recently signed in the United States. Humala said Toledo is putting the cart before the horse by trying to start a dialogue when there is nothing left to discuss. Garcia responded with a similar criticism: there is little to talk about when the deal is done, he said. Only Lourdes Flores has agreed to talk with Toledo. Her party supports the FTA. Meanwhile, congress is examining a proposal for a referendum on the trade deal.
Peru’s New Congress and Alliance Politics (Updated, again)
Maxwell A. Cameron
April 13, 2006
According to fellow-blogger Rici (see comment below), the distribution of seats in Congress could look something like the following
UPP 42 (Ollanta Humala’s “borrowed” party)
APRA 38 (Alan Garcia’s party)
UN 17 (The alliance behind Lourdes Flores)
AF 13 (The Fujimorista coalition)
FC 5 (Frente de Centro, led by Valentin Paniagua)
PP 3 (Peru Posible, the ruling party)
The exact number of seats may vary, but there are five inescapable conclusions.
First, the governing party, Peru Posible, has been all but wiped out. From 45 seats it is down to 3.
Second, no party of the left has passed the 4 percent threshold necessary to hold a seat in congress.
Third, UN has the same representation as before: 17 seats. Moreover, in its haste to jump on the renovation bandwagon, it has lost its most effective legislators.
Fourth, UPP did better than many expected. Rather than third, as polls predicted, it has a plurality. Humala has coat-tails.
Fifth, APRA is the pivotal party. It is the only party that could govern by cutting alliances with left (UPP) or right (UPP), or by playing the two off against each other.
Sixth, the Fujimoristas have increased their share of seats from 3 to 13. They are a force to be reckoned with, and they will have one over-riding goal: to bring back Alberto Fujimori. One of the biggest vote winners is Fujimori’s daughter, Keiko (see profile in The Miami Herald). This makes one wonder what would have happened in this election had Alberto Fujimori been able to run.
The prospect of an alliance between UPP and AF follows naturally from the composition of the congress. Since the over-riding goal of the AF is to have the case against Fujimori dropped, they will ultimately have to deal with whoever is elected. They would probably have less negotiating power with an APRA government, which will have more alliance possibilities. A UPP-AF alliance would also benefit Humala by bringing him closer to a legislative majority–though the two groups do not quite have 60 seats between them–and thereby reduce dependence on APRA or other groups. Yet the idea of any sort of deal-making between the two sides provokes sharply negative reactions from within their respective camps.
Postscript: Matthew Shugart, who runs a very useful blog called Fruits and Votes, argues that alliances are of particular importance in Peru’s semi-presidential system. Congress has a special power in this system: it can censure (and thereby remove) the prime minister (head of cabinet) (see Articles 122, and 132 of the Constitution). For a penetrating analysis from one of the great experts on institutions in Latin America, read below under extended entry.
In the comments section below, Sasha asks a question that goes to the heart of a related institutional issue: what happens if the president does not have enough seats to form a majority in congress? Can the other parties get together and select a new executive? The short answer is: no, the executive is not dependent on the composition of congress, as in a parliamentary system. The other parties can form an alliance. In principle, if they have enough votes, they can impeach the president (but that is rare). A president who does not have a majority in congress will typically try to form alliances to pass legislation.
As Matt points out, the need for alliances is built into the system to some extent. I also tend to agree with Matt’s thoughts on Garcia: “Garcia would have far less ability to destroy the economy this time if he won (as I think he will, if he is in the runoff). Last time, his party had a majority in congress and was totally under his control. He was unchecked. This time he will have to build alliances.”
The next president will not have a majority (as Garcia did before), and will have to spend a fair amount of time building coalitions. Of course, there is another alternative: rule by decree, ignore the congress and constitution, bypass legislature and courts, and establish what Guillermo O’Donnell has called “delegative democracy.” That would be possible in the event of an Humala victory, especially given his stated interest in a constituent congress/assembly (see the astute analysis by Julio Carrion on this).
9:30 AM: ONPE Presidential Results at 88.9%
Ollanta Humala 30.93%
Alan Garcia 24.42%
Lourdes Flores 23.42%
Peru Election: Focus on expatriate voters
Results Could Still Change
There are over 7 thousand “actas” or forms filled out at different voting booths or tables that have been disputed. While only a minority of these are from Lima, there tend to be more voters in the forms that correspond to voting booths in Lima. As a result, ONPE officials warn that the results of this election could still be altered as a result of the resolution of the disputed forms.
We now have a better sense of the size of the vote abroad. There are 458,000 voters abroad, and 250,000 of them actually voted in this election. Only about 15 percent of these votes have been counted.
APRA is taking the vote abroad seriously, and has asked for annulment of results from places like Miami, New York, Madrid, Milan and La Plata (Argentina). Unidad Nacional has denounced the “dirty” tactics being used by APRA to try to block the votes from being counted.
Lourdes Flores says APRA is nervous about losing the lead, while Garcia claimed to be confident that APRA will retain its lead by at least 1 percent.
Expert and former head of ONPE Fernando Tuesta says that voting results should not be annulled.
Interview with Salomom Lerner Febres
Debate in Second Round
In the first round of this election, neither Humala nor Flores seemed keen on a debate. Alan Garcia, on the other hand, repeatedly pushed for a debate. In the second round, a debate may be unavoidable. OAS Mission Chief Lloyd Axworthy has called for a debate, in the hope that the second round would focus more on ideas and proposals rather than personal attacks.
Rafael Rey leads vote for Andean Parliament
OAS Secretary General on the Election
OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza expressed his admiration for the recent electoral process in Peru and offered a positive evaluation of the administration of Alejandro Toledo.
Problems between JNE and ONPE over delays
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
A spokesperson for the JNE indicated that the ONPE has not submitted the forms from voting booths necessary for the Special Electoral Boards to resolve issues arising from ballots that have been disputed. The National Election Board needs forms to be submitted with the results from all 84,811 polling booths across Peru, as well as the forms that come from disputed polling booths. After that, there will be a period of 8 to 10 days while the JNE resolves the disputed forms.
The JNE claims that the ONPE has prioritized counting the ballots over getting the all the forms to the JNE so it can start to deal with the disputed cases. For its part, the ONPE says it has submitted 48 percent of the forms the JNE needs.
It is not known whether the disputed forms would tend to benefit Lourdes Flores and her National Unity alliance. Fernando Tuesta says it is impossible to know whether the current trends in the vote will change enough once votes from abroad are computed to alter the current lead held by APRA.
Reaction of Foreign Investors II
Source: El Comercio, 13 de abril del 2006
The stock market seems to have stabilized probably for two reasons. First, a realisation by foreign investors that Garcia may be the lesser evil by reaching some sort of understanding on governability with Lourdes Flores. Secondly, the signature of the free trade agreement with the United States.
With the voting for the first round over, President Toledo is pushing for the FTA with the US to be approved by the sitting congress. Ollanta Humala rejects this. Lourdes Flores is a strong supporter of the FTA. The most ambiguous position is that of APRA, which is advocating a strategy of export-led growth, but which is in no rush to push the deal through the existing, much maligned, congress.
See also: Inversionistas recuperan confianza
Vote by Vote: APRA vs Unidad Nacional
In the struggle for votes, APRA and UN are fighting tooth and nail.
APRA leaders are optimistic about winning enough votes to make it into the second round, but are leaving nothing to chance. Jorge del Castillo has challenged the voting results in a number of US cities where, he claims, the supporters of UN candidate Lourdes Flores engaged in proselytizing on election day.
ONPE Preliminary Results for Congress at 50%
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
ONPE Results for Metropolitan Lima
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
Note: at the time of this posting ONPE published results for Lima at 88.07 percent. Although La Republica states that the data on which this table is based are results at 100 percent, we do not believe this can be right for two reasons. First, there are voting booths in Lima where the results have been challenged and it will be days before these results are known. Second, votes abroad are added to the results for Lima. Hence, final results for Lima have not been published.
Nevertheless, this table shows how the spatial distribution of the vote for UPP, UN and ARPA maps onto the class structure of the city. UN is strongest in the affluent districts of Lima, UPP in the shantytowns. UN won strong majorities in the wealthier parts of Lima. Flores captured 65 percent of the vote in Miraflores, 71 percent in San Isidro, the two richest districts. UN also won majorities in solid middle class districts like San Borja (63 percent), Jesús María (53 percent), Lince (51 percent), and Pueblo Libre (55 percent). She also did impressively–at least in historical comparative terms, for a right-wing candidate–in San Juan de Miraflores (31 percent), and Villa María del Triunfo (28 percent).
UPP won pluralities in the poorest districts. Humala captured 31 percent in San Juan de Lurigancho, 30 percent in Independencia, 29 percent in Villa El Salvador and in Comas. He also did well in Ate (31 percent), El Agustino (31 percent), Lurigancho (28 percent), Pachacámac (29 percent). APRA did better than UPP in established working class and middle class districts, but nowhere did it win a plurality (though it might barely edge out Flores in Callao).
ONPE Results at 87.836%: Regional Distribution
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
10 PM: ONPE Presidential Results at 88.10% – Valid Vote
Ollanta Humala 31%
Alan Garcia 24.43%
Lourdes Flores 23.32%
Votes from Asia at 52.14%
Lourdes Flores 61.57%
Alan Garcia 8.57%
Ollanta Humala 6.97%
Votes from Oceania at 63.63%
Lourdes Flores 72.72%
Ollanta Humala 10.07%
Alan Garcia 6.52%
Fellow bloggers coverage:
El Banco Central
El exilio vota distinto
Peru Election: Race To The Finish Line
Peru’s First Round Elections
Mi experiencia como miembro de mesa
Una extenuante jornada democrática: Mi experiencia como miembro de mesa
Por Jorge Bazo Escudero
12 de abril del 2006
Y llegó por fin el día esperado, el 9 de abril, y por primera vez, en mis veintidós años de ciudadano, había sido elegido como miembro de mesa en el cargo de secretario, por lo que había que cumplir de la mejor manera posible con el deber cívico. Tras dos domingos de inducciones de parte de la ONPE para asumir tamaña responsabilidad, quedé expedito para enfrentar a casi doscientos electores en mi mesa.
The Economist: The return of populism
The return of populism
Apr 12th 2006
From The Economist print edition
Ver version en espanol abajo
¿Se merece Alan García otra oportunidad?
Natalia Sobrevilla Perea
12 de abril del 2006
Hace unas cuantas semanas me encontré con un amigo que me dijo que prefería el demonio antes que Lourdes Flores. Hoy cuando va quedando cada vez mas claro que no será ella quien pase a la segunda vuelta, muchos en el Perú se sienten en la necesidad de decidir quien será este ‘demonio’ a elegir en la segunda vuelta. Bryce Echenique ha descrito esta decisión como tener que escoger entre morir de sida o de cáncer, y otros como Susana Villarán han optado por el voto en blanco o viciado.
La pregunta que nos hacemos muchos en estas circunstancias, es si Alan García se merece una segunda oportunidad. El nos asegura que ha cambiado, que ha reflexionado, que la vida le ha mostrado sus errores, pero para quienes vivimos su gobierno de 1985 a 1990 el recuerdo de esos tiempos nos hace muy difícil confiar en la misma persona que ya una vez nos dijo que en política no hay que ser ingenuos. Muchos éramos bastante jóvenes en esos años pero no olvidamos como el país, pasó de estar moderadamente en crisis a una crisis tan profunda en que las posibilidades de futuro nos parecían imposibles. Quienes hemos vivido la hiperinflación, la estatización de la banca, el dólar MUC, los que hemos tenido que hacer cola para comprar azúcar, aceite y arroz, para después intercambiar con los vecinos, los que crecimos con el pan popular, el cuaderno popular y la leche Enci, encontramos muy difícil pensar en García en términos abstractos. Esto sin considerar además que durante su gobierno el terrorismo dejó el campo y pasó a la ciudad, vivimos paros armados, apagones, falta de agua, toque de queda y por primera vez tuvimos un poco del sabor de lo que sucedía en el resto del país.
A pesar de todo esto, muchos de quienes se han pasado los últimos quince años denunciando a García como el peor gobernante del Perú, un hombre corrupto que pasó de tener un departamento mediano en Miraflores a las mansiones de Naplo, Camacho y París, un inepto que llevo al Perú a ser inelegible por el FMI, un violador de los derechos humanos que lleva como vicepresidente a un general acusado de la matanza de los penales, han comenzado a pensar que quizás en estas circunstancias el líder Aprista sea el mal menor. Nadie le ha hecho una mejor campaña a Alan García que Ollanta Humala. Su discurso violentista y radical, sumado a las graves acusaciones en su contra han logrado en las ultimas semanas algo que pensé que nunca llegaría a ver: muchos de aquellos que juraron que todos menos Alan, de los que gritaron en su momento ¡Y va a caer y va a caer caballo loco va a caer!, están ahora pensando que ante las circunstancias es mejor darle una segunda oportunidad.
García sabe que para derrotar a Humala necesita del apoyo de la derecha, que la coalición debe ser con Unidad Nacional, además de con el Frente de Centro, Lay y todos los ‘pitufos’ que pueda sumarse. De alguna manera el dirigente de la olla le ha hecho el trabajo aun más fácil definiendo el espectro político como ‘todos contra Ollanta’. Pero lo que queda por verse es quien transara con Alianza para el Futuro, sus quince escaños en el Congreso les dan una posición privilegiada desde donde negociar el posible regreso y rehabilitación política de su líder. Humala ha dicho que no negociara con corruptos, mientras que García ha declarado que el fujimorismo no es una fuerza dictatorial en este momento, que han sido elegidos por el pueblo y que esta dispuesto a ‘darle la mano hasta a su peor enemigo’.
¿Será darle a Alan García una segunda oportunidad, abrirle la puerta a Fujimori para su segunda oportunidad? ¿Será esta una oportunidad mediada por la derecha, pactada con los representantes de Unidad Nacional? Opciones dicho sea de paso que no son mutuamente excluyentes, ya que solo basta ver a algunos de los acompañantes de Lourdes Flores para que eso sea evidente. El mapa político de los próximos años se esta reconfigurando en estos días y dependiendo de cómo se tejan las alianzas, como se presente Humala y como se establezcan los posibles pactos los que no votaron ni por Alan ni Ollanta en la primera vuelta decidirán cada uno si es mejor malo conocido o quien sabe que por conocer.
Natalia Sobrevilla Perea is an historian who teaches at Yale University.
UPDATED: The Reaction of Foreign Investors
Note: we have added an article published in El Comercio today on the subject and a chart below outlining the evolution of the stock market during the last two days.
Foreign investors are starting to recognize that Flores may not make it into the second round. It will not take long for them to start to see Garcia as their salvation. Here is a comment from someone who knows investment circles well. The comment was made just before the election:
“…the sense is that, at least last week, investors in New York were slowly recognizing that Flores could not reach the second round. They had also more or less ‘priced in’ a victory by Humala, even in a second round, but as some investors told me, they were waiting to see what Humala does before giving up on Peru completely (I thinks there was also some hope that Flores could in fact win). The question everyone had was what would Humala do once in power. I don’t think the idea that Garcia could win is out there yet, but will soon. I have the impression that Garcia could actually defeat Humala (in fact, ___ told me this was their biggest fear, that Flores would not reach the second round). In this sense, I think prices of Peruvian assets will probably fall significantly on Monday, and for a while until people realize that AG is their favourite. The question will then become, at least here, if Garcia’s moderation is credible. People here will start wondering if Alan is the new Lula, and he can really exploit that if he wants.”
The same source goes on to talk about investors who were in virtual denial about the possibiliy of Flores failing to make it into the second round. I met with one financial analyst who had spent a couple of days in Lima before the election and was assured by senior government officials that all was well and Flores was a good bet and would win a second round easily. If Flores does not make it to the second round, there will be some shock in these circles. Once the shock subsides, there may be two consolations for investors. First, Humala’s relatively modest victory comes as a relief (see recommendations by Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan). Assuming Garcia holds his precarious lead, investors may come to see him as the lessor evil (from their perspective). Only APRA can save investors?
Source: El Comercio, 12 de abril del 2006
Transparencia Datos Electorales #9
Datos Electorales No. 9: Publicidad en televisión y radio. This report contains information about paid advertising in tv and radio by political parties and groups from February 10th to March 31st, 2006 Download file
35% of the Armed Forces Voted on Election Day
Scenarios for Second Round II: Coalitions
7,543 actas están observadas
Source: La República, 12 de abril del 2006
Voto a Voto: APRA y Unidad Nacional
8:00 P.M.: ONPE Presidential Results at 86.64% – Valid Votes
Ollanta Humala 30.88%
Alan García 24.57%
Lourdes Flores 23.44%
NOTE: ONPE’s website is providing more up-to-date information
Peru Election: Race To The Finish Line
Voto fuera (2)
Could voters abroad decide this election?
Maxwell A. Cameron
April 11, 2006
Consider the absolute numbers at 84 percent of the vote counted:
UPP 3,284,730
APRA 2,624,740
UN 2,514,347
The gap between APRA and UN is 110,393 votes
According to ONPE, 9,332 votes abroad have been counted. The same source says 94.94 percent of the vote abroad is still left to be counted. That suggests the total vote abroad will be around 186,000. So far, 62 percent of the voters outside of Peru have voted for Flores. Assuming the rest of the vote breaks the way the first 5 percent has, we can calculate that Flores will get about 115,000 votes from abroad. This is more than the 110,000 gap that now separates Garcia and Flores.
Source: ONPE
Here is another exercise. If we assume (to be generous) Lourdes Flores gets 65 percent of the vote abroad, and Garcia gets 9 or 10 percent, and then add this to the results at 84 percent of the total counted, here is what we get:
Garcia 2,642,740
Flores 2,634,347
The difference is less than 10,000 votes.
The vote abroad may cancel out the effect of votes still coming in from rural areas. Moreover, there are still results to come in from Lima. In effect, as Rafael notes, there are over 7,200 “actas” or forms filled out in polling booths (mesas) that have been challenged (out of a total of over 81,000). Of those, 2,200 are from Lima. While most of the ones in Lima will presumably favor Lourdes, the rest may not. Hence, the additional actas are unlikely to change the overall balance much.
UPDATE (April 14): See article (posted in extended entry) from El Peruano on April 14. It suggests that the results could vary according to the results of the 7 thousand forms that have been disputed, since the forms corresponding to voting booths in Lima tend to have larger numbers of voters in them. That is, the weight of Lima will be greater, and this is Flores’ stronghold.
Two additional insights that have come from readers’ comments. First, if we scale the vote up to 97.2 percent (the total vote minus voters abroad), the gap between the candidates is greater: about 134,000 votes. Also, my projections for Flores are based on total not valid votes. If we correct this, the votes from abroad can only close the gap by about 82,000 votes.
So, whether votes from abroad will be sufficient to reverse the current margin between Garcia and Flores is hard to say. Increasingly, I would have to say no. Fernando Tuesta is probably right. He says we will not know the final outcome until 100% of the votes are counted.
In fact, even with 100 percent of the votes counted, we still may not know. A colleague just suggested that the result could be decided in the National Election Board, just as the Gore-Bush results in 2000 were decided in the US Supreme Court. That is, the final result may depend on decisions made by the election authorities over the admissibility of results from voting booths across the country. This process could take another 10 to 12 days. Does this remind anyone of hanging chads in Florida?
Mirko Lauer cautions Lourdes Flores to be patient.
Coverage by other bloggers:
There is an excellent analysis by Rici, who has been contributing to this discussion, in a blog called Fruits & Votes run by UCSD political scientist Matt Shugart.
Alan o Lourdes?
Compás de espera
El exilio vota distinto
Flores may still make it