Peru Election 2006

The archived version

Archive for April, 2006

Alianza por el Futuro (AF) seeks to lift ban on Alberto Fujimori

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Alianza por el Futuro (AF) is studying the possibilty of lifting the prohibition on Alberto Fujimori’s right to hold political office on the grounds that it is based on a political decision. Carlos Raffo, spokesperson for the group, insists that his group is not interested in an amnesty since Fujimori is innocent.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 24th, 2006 at 7:55 am

Posted in Fujimori

Debate on FTA intensifies

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The debate on the FTA has intensified as a result of criticisms of Peru and Colombia by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, as well as by President of Bolivia, Evo Morales, who has said Alejandro Toledo has betrayed the indigenous peoples of Peru by negotiating an FTA with the United States.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 24th, 2006 at 7:44 am

La República analiza fortalezas y debilidades de Humala y García

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Source: La República, 24 de abril del 2006

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Written by Michael Ha

April 24th, 2006 at 7:28 am

Posted in Political Parties

Fernando Tuesta: APRA is in the second round

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Source: La República, 24 de abril del 2006
According to Fernando Tuesta, it is almost impossible at this point that APRA will not pass into the second round. Read on to see his calculations.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 24th, 2006 at 7:01 am

Posted in Electoral System

Updated – Reflections on the Defeat of the Peruvian Left

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Written by Michael Ha

April 24th, 2006 at 6:31 am

Posted in Political Parties

Second Round Preparations

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The National Election Board has authorized the National Office of Electoral Processes to begin preparations for a second round election for the presidency. The National Election Board also guarantees the security of the candidates in the second round. Meanwhile, the spokesperson for Unidad Nacional, Xavier Barron, has criticized the ONPE for the slowness of the vote scrutiny.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 23rd, 2006 at 9:24 pm

Posted in Electoral System

John Crabtree analiza a Ollanta Humala

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Written by Michael Ha

April 23rd, 2006 at 9:15 am

Posted in Political Parties

National Election Board Blamed for Surplus of Candidates

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According to Fernando Tuesta, the National Election Board should have been more rigorous about applying the new law on political parties. That way, Peru would have been saved a presidential election with 19 candidates most of whom received very few votes. The law is also supposed to ensure a more coherent legislature. The breaking apart of various fronts that were formed in this election is likely to give rise to fragmentation in congress.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 23rd, 2006 at 8:49 am

Posted in Electoral System

Estrategias APRA-UN de segunda vuelta

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Source: La República, 23 de abril del 2006

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Written by Michael Ha

April 23rd, 2006 at 8:40 am

Posted in Political Parties

Candidates Who Fell Short

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Source: El Comercio, 23 de abril del 2006

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Written by Michael Ha

April 23rd, 2006 at 8:29 am

Posted in Political Parties

The Venezuelan Connection

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There is plenty of speculation about Chavez supporting the Ollanta Humala campaign, but precious little hard evidence to back it up. Correo seems to think that Isaac Galsky might be part of the connection, but it provides no evidence. Correo, it would be fair to say, is rabidly anti-Humala. How else to describe a paper that routinely calls the candidate “the fascist”—not in its editorials only, but in its news reporting as well?

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Written by Michael Ha

April 22nd, 2006 at 9:20 am

Posted in Political Parties

How I Predicted the Peruvian Election

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Maxwell A. Cameron
April 22, 2006

Now that we know for sure that Alan Garcia will be in the second round, I confess to feeling no surprise. I know, nobody likes a braggart, but I predicted the April 9 election with a level of accuracy equal or better than all the polls, the exit polls, and even the quick counts.
Here is what happened. The night before the election, I was lounging with a group of friends and drinking mineral water (in deference to the local dry law at election time). We decided to take bets on who could predict the outcome. The winner would buy a round of mineral water. I predicted Ollanta Humala would get 30 percent, Alan Garcia 25 percent, and Lourdes Flores 24 percent. With 96 percent of the votes counted, Humala stands at 30.8 percent, Garcia at 24.3 percent, and Flores at 23.6 percent.
My secret formula? There were two key sources of intelligence: the results of the 2001 election and the last good poll. In 2001 Alejandro Toledo won 36.5 percent, Garcia won 25.8 percent, and Flores won 24.3 percent. The last APOYO poll, released on April 8, gave Humala 27 percent, and placed Flores and Garcia in a tie with 23 percent each. I assumed that—at least for the candidates who had run previously—history would repeat itself. There would be a tight race between Garcia and Flores, similar to 2001. Humala would not do as well as Toledo, and 30 percent seemed like a nice round number.
Two things made me think Garcia would nudge out Flores: the hidden vote for his party, APRA, and party organization. APRA voters tend to be reticent with pollsters, and APRA has a superior capacity to pull and defend its votes.
Having discovered a good formula, I plan to use it to predict the presidential runoff between Humala and Garcia (which will probably be held on May 28, though it could be as late June 4). We know that in 2001 Garcia lost to Alejandro Toledo by 47 to 53 percent. We can use this as a baseline, and factor in the last good poll taken before the election.
Some observers think that Garcia can do better this time. The reasons for this view were nicely summarized in an editorial in Caretas last week (see: Caretas 1920, April 13, 2006, p. 17).
First, Humala is arguably a weaker candidate than Toledo was in 2001. Toledo got a lot of credit for leading the opposition to the Fujimori regime. He won 36.5 percent in the first round (and his support was fairly solid across the country).
Second, the winner in the first round often faces an “anyone but…” campaign in the second. Alberto Fujimori placed second in the first round in 1990, and beat Mario Vargas Llosa in the runoff.
Whereas Flores supporters had no trouble supporting Toledo in a second round in 2001, they are unlikely to vote for Humala. Flores supporters mobbed Humala when he tried to enter his polling station in the Ricardo Palma University. They held him hostage for nearly an hour.
Alan Garcia is already wooing Flores with promises of co-governability. Flores can see that APRA will a pivotal party in congress, and her ranks are already looking weak. She may need an alliance with APRA—and the pork it will provide—to retain coalition discipline.
Third, local business and foreign investors have already realized that their interests lie with Garcia (See: Anuncia primer ministro Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, desde Washington: “García haría mejor gobierno esta vez”, Expreso, April 22, 2006). APRA would probably sign the Free Trade Agreement with the United States, arguing that it is necessary to promote exports from the highlands and the coastal areas where APRA seeks inroads.
Finally, Garcia wants victory so badly he can taste it. He is a brilliant campaigner, and this is his last chance to do something great for APRA and Peru.
Other observers caution that Humala enjoys the many advantages that accrue to the “outsider” in Peruvian elections.
First, he does not have a record that can be used against him and will attack Alan Garcia for his performance in government in 1985-1990.
Second, as the candidate of the “anti-establishment,” Humala can paint Garcia as a traditional politician, a creature of the past.
Third, he can alter his image more easily and may be able to lower his negative ratings with smart strategies.
Both candidates will go after one another’s core constituencies. It is symbolically significant that Garcia has begun the campaign for the second round in Puno, and has proposed a debate with Humala in Puno or Cusco. Humala has promised to conquer the north, taking the nationalist message into Aprista territory.
The real battleground, however, will be Lima (the swing voters, between north and south). Neither candidate did that well in Lima in the first round. This is where the Flores’ voters were concentrated. Now Lima is up for grabs.
I am not yet ready to take bets on mineral water. Before making a prediction for the second round, I recommend waiting until the last good poll, meditating on the results of 2001, and then making an educated guess.
See also: “How to Predict the Peruvian Election” Comment is free… The Guardian

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Written by Michael Ha

April 22nd, 2006 at 8:42 am

Peru’s New Cleavage: North versus South

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Maxwell A. Cameron
April 21, 2006

In an interview with La Republica, Pedro Francke offered a number of interesting observations with regard to the sources of Ollanta Humala’s support. The first question he was asked was: if Humala’s support comes from the poor, who represent 52 percent of the total population of Peru, why did Humala win only about 30 percent of the vote? To this, Francke replied that “I don’t believe there is a direct correlation between poverty and the vote for Ollanta Humala.” Humala, said Francke, has strong support in some poor regions, like Puno, Cusco, and Huancavelica, but not in others like the jungle and Cajamarca.
I thought this was an intriguing observation, so I went to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informacion (http://www.inei.gob.pe/) to look at poverty numbers. One of the tables provides statistics on poverty by region in 2001 and 2004. The first thing that even a casual glance suggests is that it is simply not true to say there has been no trickle-down from economic growth in the past few years. There has been poverty reduction, but it is uneven.
Overall, poverty has declined in Peru from about 54.3 to 51.6 percent between 2001-04. In some areas, like Lima, poverty has actually increased. Poverty has declined significantly along the coast of Peru, such as in Ica (where it has declined from 46.7 to 29.2) and in Tumbes (where it has declined from 44.4 to 21.6), but it has also declined in some of the highland areas like Cusco (from 72.7 to 59.2) and in the jungle departments of Ucayali (70.8 to 55.8) and Madre de Dios (48.7 to 20.4).
When we look at the distribution of poverty in Peru, it matches the vote for Humala only imperfectly. Download file. Thus, for example, Humala has done best in the poorest departments like Huancavelica, Puno and Ayacucho, but he has also done well in Arequipa, Tacna, and Madre de Dios. On the other hand, he has not done so well in certain poor departments like Cajamarca or Pasco. There is a rough correlation between poverty and the vote for Humala, but it weaker than one might expect. Nor is there an obvious relationship between changes in poverty and the vote for Humala. Humala has done well in places where poverty has declined (like Tacna and Madre de Dios) as well as in places here it has remained unchanged (Huancavelica and Huanuco).
Pedro Francke’s conclusion is that there is more to the vote for Humala than poverty. “Poverty is combined with marginalization but also with an element of ethnic identification. It is striking how similar the results are with those obtained by Alejandro Toledo in 2001.” This is indeed true. Toledo did best in places like Cusco and Puno, but he also did well in places like Loreto and Ancash where Humala has not done so well. Toledo did better in Lima, Cajamarca, and Lambayeque; Humala has done better in Ayacucho, Huancavelica, and Apurimac.
Violence is another factor that probably plays a role. Humala does well wherever there was major conflict (Ayacucho, Huanuco, Junin) , but he also does well in places where there was no conflict (Moquegua and Tacna).
So what is driving the vote for Humala? I’d have to say that the most interesting exercise in looking at these numbers is simply ranking departments according to support for Humala. What comes up? Basically, Peru is divided north/south. Draw a line from Lima east to Madre de Dios. Take everything below except Ica, and exclude everything above except Huanuco and Junin, and you have over 50 percent support for Humala in what is left over. Take the north of Peru, add Ica and subtract Huanuco and Junin, and Humala’s support falls to 28 percent. The lesson for the second round is clear: a fight between Garcia and Humala is likely to become a fight between north and south.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 21st, 2006 at 2:15 pm

Partidos que no superaron la valla participarán en elecciones regionales y municipales

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Written by Michael Ha

April 21st, 2006 at 1:07 pm

Posted in Political Parties

Ramón Pérez Almodóvar, nuevo asesor de Ollanta Humala

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Written by Michael Ha

April 21st, 2006 at 7:25 am

Posted in Political Parties

ONPE Presidential results at 95.12%

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Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.84%
Alan García (Apra) 24.35%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.56%
Gap between García and Flores: 932,434 votes.
See also:
Peru Election: Foggy Friday
Peru Election: Garcia recuperating

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Written by Michael Ha

April 21st, 2006 at 7:22 am

Posted in Polls - Results

The Latest Numbers: Presidential Vote and Legislative Seat Projections

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Here are some of the latest numbers, and some pretty pictures, courtesy of Rici.
The graph shows the presidential vote count as of this morning, split between the foreign vote, the Lima vote (Lima province, not the department), and the rest of Perú. The percentages do not correspond to ONPE; they are based on the percentage of voters computed, not the percentage of voting booths.
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For those of you who want to see the latest seat count, including the calculation based on the “cifra repartidora”: Download file. The explanation is provided below (see “continue reading.”)

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 1:24 pm

Posted in Political Parties

Fernando Rospigliosi sobre el fracaso de la izquierda

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 1:07 pm

Posted in Political Parties

The Nation (US) on Ollanta Humala

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 8:37 am

Javier Diez Canseco sobre la posibilidad de una nueva Constitución

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 8:05 am

Humberto Campodónico on the FTA with the US

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Humberto Campodonico analyzes how the FTA has become a theme in the second round election campaign.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 8:03 am

Juan Carlos Tafur sobre la ingobernabilidad en el Congreso

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 7:51 am

Posted in Political Parties

Santiago Fujimori: “Ollanta Humala no es el enemigo”

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Fujimori’s supporters in Congress will pursue one over-riding objective: to secure the return of their leader. To that end, it remains to be seen what sorts of alliances the AF group might form. One possibility, which is not discarded by member of congress-elect Santiago Fujimori, is an alliance with Humala. Such an alliance would, however, face opposition within both groups.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 7:08 am

Posted in Political Parties

OAS Electoral Mission Report to OAS Council

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 7:08 am

Posted in Electoral System

8:18 a.m. ONPE Presidential results at 92.96%

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Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.80% 2’817,554 votes
Alan García (Apra) 24.34%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.65%
García 2’817,554; Flores Nano 2’737,349 votes.
Gap between García and Flores: 80,205 votes.
See also: Peru Election: Garcia recuperating

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 6:59 am

Posted in Electoral System

Ollanta Humala and the Media

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Ollanta Humala met with the Consejo de la Prensa Peruana to complain about press bias and affirm his commitment to a free press.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 6:55 am

Posted in Political Parties

Perú Posible y la Valla Electoral

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 6:48 am

Luis Castaneda se va de Unidad Nacional

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 6:46 am

Posted in Political Parties

Congresista Gerardo Saavedra defiende proyecto de ley que lo favorece económicamente

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 6:43 am

Posted in Political Parties

Complaints about the vote counting

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According to the newspaper Expreso, Xavier Barrón, the legal spokesperson for Unidad Nacional (UN), will be asking the National Election Board to order the National Office of Electoral Processes to re-enter the data from a large number of election return forms (actas) on the grounds of “errors” at the expense of candidate Lourdes Flores.
Barrón is not the only dissatisfied customer.
Humberto Lay, presidential candidate for Restauracion Nacional, has denounced what he calls a “suspicious” decline in the percent of votes won by his party, above all in Callao, to the benefit of Peru Posible. Peru Posible has been claiming that it will cross the 4 percent electoral threshold. Lay mentioned “rumors” of foul play, including murder, and claimed that there are Peru Posible members working as officials from ONPE, but offered no evidence.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 6:40 am

Posted in Electoral System

Mirko Lauer on likelihood that García will make the second round

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Lauer suggests that with 92 percent of the votes counted, including 60 percent of the vote abroad, and a 70,000 vote gap between Garcia and Flores, is seems unlikely that Flores will make it into the second round. Moreover, many of the disputed returns are from peripheral areas of Lima, where Humala is likely to benefit rather than Flores.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 20th, 2006 at 6:29 am

Posted in Political Parties

Congressional Seat Count

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Here is the latest seat count, courtesy of Rici: Download file
Thanks, Rici!

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 11:37 am

Posted in Political Parties

Public Opinion Pollsters Fight Back

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The Board of the Association of Marketing Research Firms of Peru (APEIM) has responded to criticisms of the conduct of public opinion polling in this election. They argue that the polls correctly predicted the results of the election and the key trends before election day. In addition, they have listed a series of baseless criticisms directed against the use of public opinion polling in Peru that have been reported in the media.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 9:35 am

Posted in Polls - Results

Ley 28712: Ley de Partidos Políticos para la entrega y publicación del Plan de Gobierno

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Ley 28712: Ley de Partidos Políticos para la entrega y publicación del Plan de Gobierno Download file

Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 8:23 am

Posted in L

Augusto Álvarez Rodrich on Fujimoristas in Congress

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Fujimori’s congressional bench will use its newfound voice in the legislature to demand the return of their leader as a condition for support providing a majority to the next government. Augusto Álvarez Rodrich warns that contenders in the second round may be tempted to make a deal.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 7:46 am

Posted in Political Parties

ONPE Presidential results at 91.60%

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Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.67%
Alan García (Apra) 24.30%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.71%
Gap between García and Flores: 67,649 votes (0.59%).

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 7:12 am

Posted in Polls - Results

¿Quién es Humberto Lay?

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:57 am

Posted in Political Parties

Analistas sobre las posibilidades de Humala en el debate de segunda vuelta

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:57 am

Posted in Political Parties

Juan Carlos Tafur sobre el triunfo de Ollanta Humala en Madre Mía

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Juan Carlos Tafur: “El triunfo de Ollanta Humala en Madre Mía y, coincidentemente, en el mapa donde más violencia y víctimas hubo, no es casual. Humala podrá ser visto como un violador de derechos humanos por algunos, pero para la mayoría fue el justiciero que eliminó terroristas y ahora el personaje capaz de vengarlos simbólicamente y de satisfacer ese odio resembrado por el gobierno actual.”

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:53 am

Posted in Political Violence

Mirko Lauer on the Second Round

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According to Mirko Lauer, in the event that the runoff is between Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia, Humala will move to the center, even as Garcia attempts to go after Humala’s core supporters. Humala may calculate that his core support is strong, but he needs to pick up moderate voters; Garcia will adopt a populist strategy, trusting that more conservative voters have nowhere else to go. The effect could be an interesting crossfire.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:50 am

Posted in Political Parties

Carlos Tapia on Ollanta Humala

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The allegations that Ollanta Humala was responsible for human rights crimes places the left in an awkward position as they struggle with who to choose between candidates in the second round. Humala has a platform that resonates with the left, but he has not provided an account of his actions while commander of the military base in Madre Mia and the allegations against him are credible.
In this interview with La Republica, Carlos Tapia, former member of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, outlines the reasons for the rise of Ollanta Humala and his ability to capture voters that in the past have supported the left. The interviewer asks Tapia about how, as a former member of the CVR, he can support a candidate accused of human rights crimes. He answers that he supports Humala’s “great transformation” but that the human rights allegations should be investigated. The interview ends on an angry note as Tapia rejects the idea that because he votes for Humala he is a violator of human rights and a “Fuji-Montesinista.”
Tapia appears to have changed his tune since earlier this year when he criticized Humala for his authoritarianism: Ollanta y el ‘neovelasquismo’ electoral; Elecciones: Ollanta y las izquierdas; Carlos Tapia on Ollanta Humala’s Undemocratic Values; Ollanta: ¿policía municipal?

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:37 am

ONPE Results at 90.99%: Gap between APRA and UN Narrows

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Source: La República, 19 de abril del 2006

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:33 am

Posted in Polls - Results

Dangerous Liaisons IV: Ollanta Humala’s Relations with the Montesinos Mafia

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portadasolla.jpg
Source: La República, 19 de abril del 2006

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:26 am

Constitutional Tribunal Decision on Military Justice Law

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In February, the Constitutional Tribunal, Peru’s supreme court in constitutional matters, agreed to review the law of military justice to determine its constitutionality. Yesterday, the Tribunal decided the law of military justice was unconstitutional. The decision also determined that military officers on active duty cannot be military justices.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:20 am

Posted in Rule of Law

Peru Posible y la Valla Electoral

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Written by Michael Ha

April 19th, 2006 at 6:11 am

Posted in Political Parties

Transparencia: Informe Complementario del Conteo Rapido

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Segundo informe de la jornada electoral y estimaciones de resultados producto del conteo rápido efectuado a nivel nacional: Download file
Nota de Prensa: Download file

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Written by Michael Ha

April 18th, 2006 at 5:17 pm

Posted in Polls - Results

12:00 pm ONPE Presidential results at 90.742%

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Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.857%
Alan García (Apra) 24.325%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.586%
Blank votes 11.998%
Gap between García and Flores: 83,818 votes.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 18th, 2006 at 9:39 am

Posted in Polls - Results

The Independent (UK) on Ollanta Humala

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Written by Michael Ha

April 18th, 2006 at 7:31 am

Posted in Political Parties

La Republica on Votes Abroad

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According to La Republica, of the estimated total of 260,000 votes abroad, 151,000 have been counted leaving 109,000 to go. If Flores wins 60 percent, or 65,000 votes, this will not be enough to close the gap with Garcia who currently leads with about 90,000 votes. There are, however, disputed returns from both Peru and abroad, though it is hard to know in advance how they will break.
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Source: La Republica, 18 de abril de 2006, p. 2.

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Written by Michael Ha

April 18th, 2006 at 7:05 am

Posted in Political Parties

10:30 PM: ONPE Presidential Results at 90.53%

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Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.87%
Alan García (Apra) 24.34%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.55%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.79%.
Coverage by other fellow bloggers: Peru Election: two more weeks

Written by Michael Ha

April 17th, 2006 at 8:11 pm

Posted in Polls - Results

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