Category: Electoral System
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Vote Counting Comes to an End
The vote counting will be done by tomorrow. Once the last 99 returns have been processed, ONPE will have 100 percent of the results ready to announce. Since no party has presented any further appeals to the Special Election Board of Lima Center, the last office open for such appeals, the process can now be closed.
The 99 returns represent less than 20,000 votes, and the gap between Garcia and Flores is over 65,000 votes. It has been clear for over a week that it is mathematically impossible for Flores to overtake Garcia.
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.62% – 3,757,435 votes
Alan García (Apra) 24.325% – 2,984,485 votes
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.79% – 2,919,473 votes
Gap between García and Flores: 65,012 votes.
Source: Observa, 28 de abril del 2006
Observa, Observatorio de la Vigilancia Social, es una iniciativa de un grupo de organizaciones que buscan articular, difundir y promover las experiencias de vigilancia social y una cultura de transparencia en la gestión pública.
Congreso aprobó un proyecto de ley que modifica el proceso de elección de los jefes de la ONPE y el RENIEC. La promulgación presidencial de este proyecto de ley implicaría el nombramiento indefinido de los jefes de lla ONPE y la RENIEC. Esta ley beneficiaría a los jefes actuales de estos organismos electorales.
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.66% – 3,752,036 votes
Alan García (Apra) 24.33% – 2,976,508 votes
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.73% – 2,903,777 votes
Gap between García and Flores: 72,731 votes. (0.60%)
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.67%
Alan García (Apra) 24.33%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.73%
Gap between García and Flores: 73,374 votes. (0.60%)
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.69% (3,748,167 votes)
Alan García (Apra) 24.32% (2,970,132 votes)
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.70% (2,895,159 votes)
Gap between García and Flores: 74,973 votes.
Source: La República, 26 de abril del 2006
Source: La República, 24 de abril del 2006
According to Fernando Tuesta, it is almost impossible at this point that APRA will not pass into the second round. Read on to see his calculations.
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Second Round Preparations
The National Election Board has authorized the National Office of Electoral Processes to begin preparations for a second round election for the presidency. The National Election Board also guarantees the security of the candidates in the second round. Meanwhile, the spokesperson for Unidad Nacional, Xavier Barron, has criticized the ONPE for the slowness of the vote scrutiny.
According to Fernando Tuesta, the National Election Board should have been more rigorous about applying the new law on political parties. That way, Peru would have been saved a presidential election with 19 candidates most of whom received very few votes. The law is also supposed to ensure a more coherent legislature. The breaking apart of various fronts that were formed in this election is likely to give rise to fragmentation in congress.
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.80% 2’817,554 votes
Alan García (Apra) 24.34%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.65%
García 2’817,554; Flores Nano 2’737,349 votes.
Gap between García and Flores: 80,205 votes.
See also: Peru Election: Garcia recuperating
According to the newspaper Expreso, Xavier Barrón, the legal spokesperson for Unidad Nacional (UN), will be asking the National Election Board to order the National Office of Electoral Processes to re-enter the data from a large number of election return forms (actas) on the grounds of “errors” at the expense of candidate Lourdes Flores.
Barrón is not the only dissatisfied customer.
Humberto Lay, presidential candidate for Restauracion Nacional, has denounced what he calls a “suspicious” decline in the percent of votes won by his party, above all in Callao, to the benefit of Peru Posible. Peru Posible has been claiming that it will cross the 4 percent electoral threshold. Lay mentioned “rumors” of foul play, including murder, and claimed that there are Peru Posible members working as officials from ONPE, but offered no evidence.
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Debate Could be on May 20
According to Luis Nunes, a debate between the candidates in a second round could be held on May 20. He also indicates that the debate would be based on the National Accord. Would Humala agree to this? Apparently the Humala camp has been asking for information on the National Accord.
Gap between García and Flores: 0.852%
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.90%
Alan García (Apra) 24.38%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.53%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.85% (about 95,800 votes).
According to Magdalena Chu, chief of ONPE, 100 percent of the votes abroad should be available and computed within the next two days. After that, the Special Election Boards and the National Election Board will have to resolve all outstanding issues. The final official result may not be known until the end of the month. The second round will probably be held on the last Sunday of May or first Sunday of June.
Luis Nunes, director of the National Democratic Institute, proposes a debate between the presidential candidates in the second round.
Source: La República, 16 de abril del 2006
Source: La República, 15 de abril del 2006
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Results Could Still Change
There are over 7 thousand “actas” or forms filled out at different voting booths or tables that have been disputed. While only a minority of these are from Lima, there tend to be more voters in the forms that correspond to voting booths in Lima. As a result, ONPE officials warn that the results of this election could still be altered as a result of the resolution of the disputed forms.
We now have a better sense of the size of the vote abroad. There are 458,000 voters abroad, and 250,000 of them actually voted in this election. Only about 15 percent of these votes have been counted.
APRA is taking the vote abroad seriously, and has asked for annulment of results from places like Miami, New York, Madrid, Milan and La Plata (Argentina). Unidad Nacional has denounced the “dirty” tactics being used by APRA to try to block the votes from being counted.
Lourdes Flores says APRA is nervous about losing the lead, while Garcia claimed to be confident that APRA will retain its lead by at least 1 percent.
Expert and former head of ONPE Fernando Tuesta says that voting results should not be annulled.
OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza expressed his admiration for the recent electoral process in Peru and offered a positive evaluation of the administration of Alejandro Toledo.
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
A spokesperson for the JNE indicated that the ONPE has not submitted the forms from voting booths necessary for the Special Electoral Boards to resolve issues arising from ballots that have been disputed. The National Election Board needs forms to be submitted with the results from all 84,811 polling booths across Peru, as well as the forms that come from disputed polling booths. After that, there will be a period of 8 to 10 days while the JNE resolves the disputed forms.
The JNE claims that the ONPE has prioritized counting the ballots over getting the all the forms to the JNE so it can start to deal with the disputed cases. For its part, the ONPE says it has submitted 48 percent of the forms the JNE needs.
It is not known whether the disputed forms would tend to benefit Lourdes Flores and her National Unity alliance. Fernando Tuesta says it is impossible to know whether the current trends in the vote will change enough once votes from abroad are computed to alter the current lead held by APRA.
In the struggle for votes, APRA and UN are fighting tooth and nail.
APRA leaders are optimistic about winning enough votes to make it into the second round, but are leaving nothing to chance. Jorge del Castillo has challenged the voting results in a number of US cities where, he claims, the supporters of UN candidate Lourdes Flores engaged in proselytizing on election day.
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
Note: at the time of this posting ONPE published results for Lima at 88.07 percent. Although La Republica states that the data on which this table is based are results at 100 percent, we do not believe this can be right for two reasons. First, there are voting booths in Lima where the results have been challenged and it will be days before these results are known. Second, votes abroad are added to the results for Lima. Hence, final results for Lima have not been published.
Nevertheless, this table shows how the spatial distribution of the vote for UPP, UN and ARPA maps onto the class structure of the city. UN is strongest in the affluent districts of Lima, UPP in the shantytowns. UN won strong majorities in the wealthier parts of Lima. Flores captured 65 percent of the vote in Miraflores, 71 percent in San Isidro, the two richest districts. UN also won majorities in solid middle class districts like San Borja (63 percent), Jesús María (53 percent), Lince (51 percent), and Pueblo Libre (55 percent). She also did impressively–at least in historical comparative terms, for a right-wing candidate–in San Juan de Miraflores (31 percent), and Villa María del Triunfo (28 percent).
UPP won pluralities in the poorest districts. Humala captured 31 percent in San Juan de Lurigancho, 30 percent in Independencia, 29 percent in Villa El Salvador and in Comas. He also did well in Ate (31 percent), El Agustino (31 percent), Lurigancho (28 percent), Pachacámac (29 percent). APRA did better than UPP in established working class and middle class districts, but nowhere did it win a plurality (though it might barely edge out Flores in Callao).
Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
Datos Electorales No. 9: Publicidad en televisión y radio. This report contains information about paid advertising in tv and radio by political parties and groups from February 10th to March 31st, 2006 Download file
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7,543 actas están observadas
Source: La República, 12 de abril del 2006
Source: Expreso, 10 de abril del 2006
Source: La Primera, 10 de abril del 2006
Pintas subversivas alarmaron a los peruanos residentes en Madrid, España, que cumplieron con el proceso electoral.
Ollanta Humala: 27.32%
Lourdes Flores: 26.45%
Alan Garcia: 26.05 %
Martha Chavez: 6.36%
Valentin Paniagua: 6.18%
Humberto Lay: 4.31%
Note: these percentages are not representative of the final result. Results at 80% will be more accurate.
For more details visit: http://www.elecciones2006.onpe.gob.pe/_resultados2006_/index.onpe
Ollanta Humala: 30.2.%
Lourdes Flores: 24.3%
Alan Garcia: 23.8%
Matha Chavez: 7.6%
Valentin Paniagua: 6.0%
Humberto Lay: 4.3%