The Insiders
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Jan
28
Insiders Predicts Turnout Down 42%
Posted by: Alex Lougheed | January 28, 2010 | 10 Comments
Note: Within an hour of this post, the elections committee broke the model! Good job, EC! (more t-tests, next time, I promise)
I did a really simple logarithmic fit to the data the elections committee has been releasing.
I’m going to go ahead and predict turnout this year will be 3781. Only 58% of last years ~6500.
Note: I’d do some confidence intervals, but seriously, I just finished a STAT 306 assignment, and I’m tired of t-tests.
What’s different this year from last? This editor notes one big difference is the lack of a student-wide email, highly visible poll-booths, and highly visible campaigns. Post your thoughts in the comments thread.
Comments
10 Comments so far
What have you? Why is turnout down this year?
Apparently, within an hour of me posting this, the EC met my predicted target. I guess I kind of ignored that votes come in clusters around noon, and the last datum I had was at 9:30am. Hilarity. Total model fail.
GJ on the EC on releasing the data though!
http://twitter.com/AMSElections/statuses/8341249136
This is adorable, so freakin’ adorable. p value FAIL.
So, what is quorum? Has it/will it be reached?
There was a massive spike in voting in the last hours of last year’s voting period.
5191.
Also, saved votes will be submitted at 4pm. Expect another spike.
MISUSE OF STATISTICS
True fact. I need to read more 306.
Proof that any model is only as good as the assumptions on which it is built.
Or as us CS-types are fond of saying: “Garbage in, Garbage out”…
haha good try though