On the certainty of uncertainty…

In the run-up to the conference here in Orlando, I made a few bad jokes about the wisdom of heading to Florida during hurricane season. I was assured that the season had passed (that wasn’t my understanding, but what do I know?)…

Apparently not, with Wilma gaining strength overnight. I’ve been checking the pages from the National Hurrican Service off and on through the day. The most recent update is reassuring:

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS…WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION…WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE…WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

…SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY…CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK…ESPECIALLY THE TIMING…HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

So far everyone is merrily going about their conference business… though I have overheard a couple of people making inquiries regarding flight availability on Friday on their seemingly obligatory headset cell phones. I am beginning to regret not booking a redeye back, my Saturday departure is looking shaky.

I’ve never seen a more car-oriented city than Orlando. It’s a testament to the beauty of urban sprawl. When I checked into my hotel room at three o’clock on Tuesday morning, the air conditioning was on full blast, as I realized it always is in every room in the hotel. When I leave for the day, I make sure it’s turned off. When I return, it’s back on. Obviously, global warming is just a conspiracy theory being peddled by the sinister and all-powerful environmentalist cabal, a gang of kill-joys seething with resentment at the sheer joi de’vivre enjoyed by the SUV set.