Archive for April, 2006
Shining Path Activities in Emergency Areas
Dangerous Liaisons III: Ollanta Humala’s Relations with the Montesinos Mafia
Interview with Lourdes Flores
Interview with Antauro Humala
UPDATE: Ollanta Humala closes campaign in Lima
Maxwell A. Cameron & Fabiola Bazo
Photos: Jorge Bazo
April 5, 2006
UPDATE: We have added local and international media coverage and front pages of local newspapers.
Ollanta Humala closed his campaign in Lima tonight in a massive meeting in the Paseo de los Héroes Navales (in front of the Palace of Justice). In front of an enthusiastic crowd of at least 20,000, Humala hammered away at the themes that have dominated his campaign, using military references and metaphors throughout.
The evening began with singing of the nation anthem. Most people sang with their hands on their hearts. This tradition began with the military regime of General Juan Velasco Alvarado and has become fairly commonplace ever since.
Conspicuous among the crowd were reservists, and supporters of Ollanta’s brother Antauro.
After paying tribute to Victor Raul Haya de la Torres, Jose Carlos Mariategui and Jorge Basadre, Humala said the status quo cannot continue. He called for a more solidary society without exclusion. Humala lamented that conditions are so bad that many young people wish to leave the country. He reiterated his call for contracts with foreign enterprises to be renegotiated. At the same time he insisted that he will respect private property. Firms that pay taxes and royalties and don’t hurt the environment will be welcome in Peru.
Humala claimed that his party is the only one that acknowledges the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and requested reparation for communities that were silent witnesses to the violence.
The speech had a strongly defensive tone as well, which suggests Humala is smarting from attacks by his adversaries. He said his adversaries are trying to link Humala to the “bad Montesinos” in order to delink Montesinos with Fujimori. In fact, said Humala, Fujimori and Montesinos were Siamese twins. “Enough of this campaign of fear,” he said, the election is not about dictatorship or democracy. “Peru is a dictatorship of those with economic power.”
Humala dismissed the legal charges against him. He did not use the opportunity of this speech to provide his own account of his record of service as a commander of the Madre Mia base in 1992.
Humala denied that he would break apart the police force, as has been alleged by Alan Garcia.
Humala used now stock lines from his repertoire of campaign jokes and turns of phrase. He talked of traditional, aged, macerated politicians, and explicitly asked Garcia to take a step to the side. He called attention to Garcia’s record in office, and linked Flores to bankers. He accused her of supporting the surrender of Peruvian territory to Ecuador.
He retold the joke about the politician who offers a school, clinic and bridge and then, when told the bridge is not needed because the is no river, offers a river. He also reiterated that he has never met anyone in a military barracks named Kuscynski, Diez Canseco or Belaunde, and lots named Quispe, Huaman, or Humala. Candidates have gone down to defeat on this issue—think only of Vargas Llosa and Perez de Cuellar.
Humala argued for a new constitution, not the one produced by the autogolpe of April 5, 1992—exactly 14 years ago to this day. This would involve “a refounding of the nation.” Humala ended saying “this commander humbly requests you let me command the nation.”
Interview with Lloyd Axworthy: Results must be Respected
Source: El Peruano, 6 de abril del 2006
Javier Valle-Riestra on Constitutional Assemblies
In this opinion piece, Javier Valle-Riestra argues in favour of calling a constitutional assembly.
Lourdes Flores: Unidad Nacional and APRA will Defend Democracy Together in the Second Round
Carlos Ivan Degregori on Electoral Promises
Fujimoristas Close their Campaign Celebrating the “Auto-golpe”
Fujimoristas close their campaign in Lima celebrating the 1992 “auto-golpe” and with a surprise announcement: the wedding of Alberto Fujimori with Satomi Kataoka. Kataoka stole the show to presidential candidate Martha Chavez.
More on Statements by Ollanta Humala in Página/12
Victor Andres Garcia Belaunde, Congressional candidate for Frente de Centro, and Alberto Moreno, presidential candidate for Movimiento Nueva Izquierda, see some basis for Ollanta Humala’s claim that Lourdes Flores, should she be elected, would not last a year, if current economic policies continue under her rule. Ulises, brother of Ollanta Humala and presidential candidate for Avanza Pais, claims that a governemnt led by his brother would not last a year and predict a fall similar to Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador. Mirko Lauer analyzes the potential for political instability under governments led by Flores and Humala.
Washington Post coverage of the Peruvian Election
Washington Post: Peruvian Election Primer
Dangerous Liaisons II: Ollanta Humala’s Relations with the Montesinos Mafia
Source: Correo, 6 de abril del 2006
La Primera continues its unveiling of connections between Ollanta Humala with members of the mafia of Vladimiro Montesinos with an interview with Fernando Rospigliosi. Correo provides new information on the 2000 Locumba uprising by the Humala brothers.
Presos por corrupción pidieron emitir su voto
http://elcomercio.pe/edicionimpresa/html/2006-04-06/ImpTemaDia0484851.html
Unos treinta presos procesados por delito de corrupción que se encuentran con arresto domiciliario fueron autorizados para emitir su voto porque así lo pidieron a la ONPE, según la Dirección de Seguridad de Penales (Dirsepen). Entre ellos hay un coronel EP (r) del grupo Colina, designado secretario de mesa.
Ellos están autorizados a votar porque tienen su DNI y no han sido sentenciados, precisó la Dirsepen, de tal forma, añadió, que el domingo serán acompañados por uno o dos policías a los centros de sufragio.
Entre los autorizados a votar está el coronel EP Víctor Silva Mendoza, ex jefe del Servicio de Inteligencia del Ejército, vinculado al grupo Colina, quien irá a una mesa de Barranco.
También están los generales Carlos Bergamino Cruz, Jorge Girano Soto, Abraham Cano Angulo, Walter Chacón Málaga, Juan Yanqui Cervantes, Ricardo Sotero Navarro, Walter Jave Huangal, Jorge Malpartida.
Pero no solo ellos, también sufragarán Orlando Montesinos Torres (hermano del ‘Doc’), los ex vocales Alipio Montes de Oca y Lorenzi Goicochea; los hermanos Áybar Cancho, comprometidos en el tráfico de armas para las FARC colombianas. Igualmente Carlos Echevarría Quevedo, juzgado por violación y Pedro Santillán Galdós, por tráfico de drogas.
Según la ONPE, solo los reclusos con sentencia y en los penales no están autorizados a votar por carecer de DNI pero los procesados (sin veredicto) pueden ejercer su derecho al sufragio. La Dirsepen ha dispuesto un plan especial para llevarlos y luego regresarlos a sus domicilios.
Interview with Cecilia Blondet
Transparencia Will Conduct a Quick Count
Military vote will not be decisive in the elections, according to spokespersons from the non-governmental organization Transparencia. A meeting convened to seal a copy of the sample of voting booths that it would use for a quick count on election day turned into a dicussion of the military and police vote when journalists present asked about recent statements by candidate Humala concerning a possible fraud. Percy Medina reminded people that 138,000 men and women in uniform represent 0.84 percent of the electorate. Only one third will be able to vote. This does not mean that a fraud is being committed, however. Pepi Patron said this issue should not be dramatized. In the face of threats to take to the streets, Medina called for presidentiail candidates to maintain their calm.
Figures: 138,156 military and police are eligible to vote (though not all are registered).
19,883 belong to the army.
9,995 to the Airforce
20,500 to the marines
87,778 to the national police
Interview with Valentín Paniagua
Shining Path Activity in Tingo Maria and Ayacucho
CNDH – Report on Human Right Abuses in Huallaga
Informe de la Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos: Contexto de Violencia en la Región Nororiental y Sucesos de la Base Militar “Madre Mía” 1992. El caso del ex Capitán EP Ollanta Humala Tasso.
14 Years after the “Auto-Golpe”
For detailed coverage (including images and video) on the autogolpe visit the blog El Utero de Marita. The blog Desde el Tercer Piso recounts the event.
Financial Times on the Future of Democracy in Peru
Humala fans fears of ‘coup with a democratic face’. By Hal Weitzman in Tacna, Peru, Financial Times
“Humala’s talk fans fears of ‘coup with a democratic face’ in Peru The presidential frontrunner is a former army officer playing to the nation’s affection for authoritarian leaders, reports Hal Weitzman.”
John Crabtree: Peruvians Prepare to Bite Back
In this article for Open Democracy, John Crabtree examines the “Humala Phenomenon.”
Fallout from Statements by Ollanta Humala in Página/12 Continues
Ollanta Humala’s claim that Lourdes Flores, should she be elected, would not last a year continued to dominate the election campaign today. Lourdes Flores characterized the comment as “undemocratic” and Alan Garcia closed ranks with Lourdes Flores implying that Humala’s comments were cowardly. At issue is whether all the candidates are prepared to respect the democratic rules of the game. Flores and Garcia have used this opportunity to highlight their difference with Humala. Whether this will affect voting intentions is hard to know. It could well limit the chances of any further growth in support for Humala just days before the election. At a time when Humala wants to be creating a sensation of momentum and growth he is besieged by criticisms of his own comments, by the lunch between his vice presidential candidate and a prominent media owner, and by new evidence of elements in his entourage connected to the Montesinos mafia.
Shining Path Threatens Voters in Huánuco in San Martín
Source: Correo, 4 de abril del 2006
The Shining Path is threatening the population of Huánuco y San Martín, calling voters to stay at home. Meanwhile, in contradictory news, the leader of the New Left Movement (Movimiento Nueva Izquierda, MNI), Alberto Moreno, has been forced to deny allegations by the police that elements of the the Shining Path supporting his candidacy wtih a campaign of intimidation of peasants in Huánuco, Tingo María y Aucayacu.
Santiago Pedraglio on Fight for Paniagua’s Votes
Santiago Pedraglio argues against the campaign by National Unity to appeal to voters who might plan to support Paniagua in the first round and Flores in the second round. It is well known that Flores has low negative ratings. Few voters would say that under no condition would they vote for Flores. However, some voters would prefer other candidates first. The idea behind the National Unity strategy is to encourage these voters to see the vote for Paniagua as a “lost vote”–and one that could cost Flores the chance of entering the second round. Hence, the argument goes, it would be a vote for Garcia and Humala. It is not clear, however, that Paniagua’s supporters feel much affinity for Flores. In fact, as Pedraglio argues, they may be more likely to identify with the centrist positions of Alan Garcia. Note, that as Paniagua’s vote has declined over this campaign, it does not appear to have benefited Flores.
JNE, ONPE & RENIEC Guarantee Transparent Elections
Enrique Mendoza, President of the National Election Board, Magdalena Chú, Chief of National Office of Electoral Processes and Eduardo Ruiz, the head of the National Registry of Identity and Civil Status, met to indicate their unity of purpose in carrying out transparent elections.
Valentín Paniagua Attacks Public Opinion Polls
Presidencial candidate for the Frente de Centro, Valentín Paniagua, criticized the use of public opinion polls and regretted the lack of appropriate regulation or auditing of the polls.
OAS Observers to be sent into emergency areas
According to Lloyd Axworthy, in statements to the international press, the OAS will be sending observers across the country for the April 9 election, including areas of conflict.
Peruvian Electoral Population
Source: El Comercio, 5 de abril del 2006
94 mil policías vigilarán comicios del 9 de abril
94,000 police officers will provide security on election day. This is the first election in which they will be able to vote. The police will rotate throughout the day so that they can also vote. Even so, about 40 percent of the police will not be able to vote because their work will take them far from their domicile.
Mayor Ítalo Ponce, promotor de la campaña de UPP, vinculado con Montesinos
Source: La República, 5 de abril del 2006
Según La República, el diario ha reunido pruebas de que el oficial Ítalo Carmelo Ponce Montero y otros cuatro miembros de la promoción de Ollanta Humala visitan con regularidad a Óscar López Meneses, procesado junto a Vladimiro Montesinos por corrupción.
Interview with Ollanta Humala
In this interview with BBC Mundo, posted by Venezolana de Television, candidate Ollanta Humala expresses his concerns with the armed forces not being able to vote on April 9th.
Página/12 (Arg) Interview with Ollanta Humala
Asked “What would happen in Peru if the elections are won by Lourdes Flores, who represents a continuation of the economic model?” Ollanta Humala responds “The same as has happened to presidents in other Latin American countries which were removed by the people. I think it would be very hard for Lourdes Flores to last a year in government.” “What role would you play in this process?” asks the interviewer. “I would be in the democratic opposition.”
Reaction from the candidates has been swift. Alan Garcia says Humala needs to learn democratic manners. A spokesperson for National Unity, Xavier Barron, said the comment is a clear threat of a coup.
La nueva estrategia de Unidad Nacional
Dangerous Liaisons: Ollanta Humala’s Relations with the Montesinos Mafia
According to La Primera, Ollanta Humala has connections with a number of members of the mafia of Vladimiro Montesinos. These include Oscar Lopez Meneses, who supports Humala from prison, and has met with members of Humala’s graduating class. La Republica profiles Adrian Villafuerte Macha, who is part of the Humala campaign team and served under Cesar Saucedo, part of the Montesinos mafia. A piece in Agenciaperu.com makes the Humala uprising in October 2000 look like a bit of a tragi-comedy. It suggests the rebellion was carried out with the connivance of senior officers linked to Montesinos.
New Strategy for Frente de Centro: Chaparron Re-Loaded
Source: Peru 21, April 4, 2006
La Tercera (Chile) analyses the campaign
The Battle of the Headlines
Maxwell A. Cameron
April 3, 2006
As the final week of the campaign began, the biggest fight appears to be between Lourdes Flores Nano and her National Unity alliance and the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance, led by Alan Garcia. The front-page headline of La Republica (which tends to be sympathetic to the APRA) was: “Alan: I will defeat Ollanta.” Garcia claims he is the candidate best able to defeat the “threat of violence and authoritarianism” represented by Ollanta Humala, the front-runner in the race. According to Garcia, Flores cannot stop Humala.
Source: La Republica, April 3, 2006
An interesting contrast to the headline in La Republica is the front page headline of Correo (which tends to support Flores): “Is a vote for Paniagua a vote for Alan?” The top news story is an interview with pollsters who suggest that Paniagua is competing for the same voters as Flores, and he could be the spoiler in this election (as Fernando Olivera was in 2001). The 6 percent of the vote Paniagua has locked up could push Flores into the second round.
Peru.21 (which tends to be fairly balanced), ran “War of Nerves” as its headline, and noted that both Flores and Garcia vow to dispute the second round with Humala. Peru21 presented two views. One analyst, Romeo Grompone said Alan is favored by his centrist position; another, Nelson Manrique said the rise of APRA could re-awaken anti-Alan sentiment.
There is a full page interview with Alfredo Torres in El Comercio. Torres is the head of the polling firm APOYO. He notes that Flores and Garcia are in a virtual “technical ties” and that there is a tendency for their places in the polls to converge. He predicts a huge confrontation between the two. He sees Garcia as eating into Humala’s votes. 10 percent of the electorate will decide for whom to vote on the last day.
The competition between APRA and National Unity has extended to the scrutiny of votes. Both are preparing small armies of volunteers to watch the voting in booths across the country. UN will do an exit poll of its own, and APRA will do a quick count. UN has 124,612 volunteers to defend their votes, and 88,000 will be devoted to defending votes in polling stations across the country in the face of possible challenges by APRA or UPP. APRA hopes to have people in the 88,000 voting booths across Peru as well. They have 87 percent covered and are aiming for 100 percent. UPP also hopes to have personnel in all polling booths.
Humala continues to take a beating for the meeting between his vice presidential candidate, Carlos Torres Caro, and Genaro Delgado Parker (owner of Panamericana Television). He insists that he will not pardon the station’s $10 million debt, or allow the station to pay it off its debt with publicity for the state. Torres Caro has been attacked from within UPP by Jose Vega, who was dismayed by the lunch with Delgado Parker.
Humala is also attacked prominently in the newpaper Expreso (which is often considered close to the armed forces). “How did he pay for his honey moon?” asks Expreso. The story inside claims Humala’s honey moon cost $10,000, far more than a poorly paid army officer could afford on his own. Humala was a commander in the early 1990s at a time when drug trafficking was widespread. Protection money was taken from Colombia cartels in return for allowing drug shipments. Also, Humala was promoted in 1999 (the year he was married) to the 3rd Military Region under General Abraham Cano, a man of confidence of Vladimiro Montesinos. He was put in charge of an artillery group in the Arica Base. Interviews with military brass reinforce the claim that Humala must have had other sources of income.
Foreign Press Coverage of the Peruvian Election
Peruvian Election Primer
Heather Murphy at the Washington Post has prepared a helpful primer on the election in Peru.
Pagina/12 Examines the Rise of Ollanta Humala
In this very interesting article, Carlos Noriega discusses with Carlos Reyna, Nelson Manrique and Carlos Tapia who Ollanta Humala is. The three analysts explore the rise of Humala, the campaign against him, and the type of government he may pursue in Peru.
Analistas opinan sobre las últimas encuestas de APOYO y CPI
Interview with Alfredo Torres (Apoyo)
Interview with Romeo Grompone
Interview with Jürgen Schuldt
In this interview Jurge Schuldt examines the economic platforms of the leading candidates.
The Meeting between Genaro Delgado Parker and Carlos Torres Caro
El broadcaster Genaro Delgado Parker y Carlos Torres Caro, candidato a la segunda vicepresidencia de Ollanta Humala, fueron descubiertos por la prensa almorzando juntos el pasado viernes 31 de marzo en el restaurante “La Gloria” de Miraflores.
OAS Electoral Mission Approved ONPE’s Electoral Software
Most of the local press has commented on the arrival of the OAS Election Observation Mission. The Chief of the Mission, Lloyd Axworthy, discounted the possibility of fraud given the transparency and professionalism with which the organization of the election is being carried out, and called for candidates to avoid attacks and insults.
Biography: Antauro Humala
Biography: Antauro Humala
El Quijote en los Andes
Jorge Zavaleta*
Voltairenet.org
2 de abril de 2006
Peru Seven Days Before the Election
Maxwell A. Cameron
April 2, 2006
At this moment, one week from today, the polls will be closed and scrutineers will be counting the votes. The election is one week away, and in this final week many things could happen. The last week is strategically important. Each campaign will want to end with a sense of momentum and anticipated triumph. The closing rallies will be big, noisy, colorful events, and a couple are scheduled to occur simultaneously within the radius of a few city blocks in downtown Lima.
The insults and the recriminations between the various candidates and their supporters will probably intensify. An especially intense race is emerging between Lourdes Flores of National Unity (UN) and Alan Garcia of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) for the second-place spot. Whereas all the polls coincide in suggesting that the first place candidate is Ollanta Humala of the Union for Peru (UPP), is it unclear whether the critically important runner-up candidate will be Lourdes Flores or Alan Garcia. The tendency in the polls over the past few weeks has been for Garcia to gain support slowly and for Flores to declining support equally slowly. It is possible that by the end of the week the two candidates could be tied, in which case either one might pass into the second round.