Archive for July, 2006
Always the Bride
Maxwell A. Cameron
The Guardian, Comment is free…
July 31, 2006
On July 28, 2006, Alan García Pérez, leader of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA), assumed the presidency of Peru for the second time. The sight of the now middle-aged politician wearing the presidential sash fills many Peruvians with a weird sense of déjà vu. Having decided to give him a second chance, voters now wonder whether he has changed.
García is the kind of politician who, as one wag put it, needs to be the bride in every wedding, the corpse in every funeral. He must control the need to eclipse everyone around him if he wants to govern effectively.
García’s inauguration speech this July 28 suggests that he has learned some hard lessons from his previous term in office (1985-1990). (For a summary of the inauguration speech, in Spanish, see Adonde.com). He argued that the emphasis on macroeconomic stability and privatisation under the so-called Washington Consensus were insufficient to address social exclusion and unemployment, but he also appointed a conservative minister of finance who has the confidence of the international financial community. He will walk a fine line between striving to make Peru an investment grade economy while redressing the social causes that produced the massive protest vote in this election.
The speech also exposed García’s troubling urge to be the protagonist in too many policy areas. Many words were devoted to detailing a wide range of specific measures, rather than laying out the general principles that would guide his government (leaving the details to be fleshed out by cabinet, lawmakers, and senior bureaucrats). García has left little room for initiative to his prime minister, Jorge del Castillo. His stupendous ego does not allow him to delegate powers that he believes should be monopolized by the president.
In his first term, García turned Peru into what Argentine political scientist Guillermo O’Donnell called a delegative democracy. In a delegative democracy presidents do their best, and often succeed, to suppress constitutional checks and balances.
According to this conception of rule, says O’Donnell, “whoever wins election to the presidency is thereby entitled to govern as he or she sees fit, constrained only by the hard facts of existing power relations and by a constitutionally limited term of office.” The president is the “embodiment of the nation” and courts and legislatures are treated as mere nuisances.
In 1985, García came to power in the midst of a severe economic crisis, with the economy in recession and the public sector staggering under a massive external debt burden. The Shining Path revolutionary movement was on the rise, moving increasingly from Ayacucho into urban areas – especially Lima. The young leader responded with an ambitious policy agenda that involved placing a cap on debt service, controlling prices, and stimulating growth through public spending.
It worked for about 18 months. After an initial boom, however, the economy slumped. García attacked the business community, which he denounced as disloyal for refusing to invest to sustain the recovery he had stimulated. The 1987 decision to attempt to nationalize the banks led to a collapse of business confidence, capital flight, and a massive recession. The collapse was accompanied by hyperinflation as the government continued to print money to cover costs. Corruption ran rampant as APRA party members plundered the state in an end-of-term piñata.
Whatever the errors inherent in García’s management of the economy, one of the most important political errors in his administration was his own tendency to dominate policymaking initiatives while weakening mechanisms of accountability. The effort to nationalize the banks, for example, was a decision taken by García and a handful of advisers. Yet he abdicated democratic responsibility in the management of coordinated prison uprising in 1986, turning the matter over to the armed forces. The military bombarded the prisons and executed dozens of Shining Path prisoners who had surrendered. The matter was investigated by congress, but to this day Peru’s backlogged judiciary has refused to touch the case.
O’Donnell argues that delegative democracies tend to go through cycles. Presidents begin their term with the appearance of omnipotence but, unable to overcome opportunism based on skepticism about whether the delegative leader can deliver the goods, they fall prey to impotence and policy failure. García’s failures set the stage for the rise of the autocratic government of Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) and the erosion of Peru’s democracy.
Today’s García is not the impetuous bête noire of 1985. A frequent theme in his recent speeches is the importance of the separation and independence of powers. He pledges to respect the jurisdictional independence of the judiciary. This is positive, as is his announcement that the anti-corruption tsar and comptroller general would not be members of the APRA party. Similarly, it is reassuring to hear his support for regional and municipal governments, and his desire to continue the process of decentralization.
At the same time, García was vague about what he calls the need to rebuild the political system. How will his government work with congress? Apart from calling for a reduction of salaries for the president and congress, he said little to indicate how he would work with congress to carry out his policy agenda. That agenda seems to come exclusively from the president and his inner circle; congress may have a subordinate role. This could set the stage for confrontations between the executive and legislature in the future, something that García hinted at during the election campaign. With regard to the bureaucracy, García emphasized austerity and an end to frivolous expenses, but reducing salaries and firing unnecessary employees does not necessarily alter the way the bureaucracy functions.
Another key issue will be García’s ability to work with and control his own party. APRA is the only well-organized party in Peru. García has a chance to govern with APRA, giving it real power while seeking to ensure that it does not become a source of corruption and scandal as it did in the 1980s.
García takes power today under conditions radically different from 1985, and far more auspicious for policy success. If his inaugural speech is an indicator, however, he will have to watch his tendency to rule by executive fiat. He more than anyone else should know how quickly the omnipotent powers of the presidency can evaporate.
Summary of President Garcia’s Inaugural Speech
A good summary of Alan Garcia’s inaugural speech is provided, in Spanish, by Adonde.com. See also the review in Agenciaperu.com.
Alan Garcia’s First Speech as President, July 28, 2006 Download file
Alan Garcia’s second coming
John Crabtree
28 July 2006
Alan Garcia returns to the presidency of Peru as a far less radical figure than in the 1980s, but the political and institutional challenges facing him are just as great, reports John Crabtree.
Alan García Perez – someone who most Peruvians never imagined would regain the sash of office, after his first period as head of state (1985-90) ended in hyperinflation and political crisis – was sworn in as president on 28 July 2006, among all the pomp and ceremony of his country’s independence day. However, he seems a very different Alan García to the figure sworn in twenty-one years ago, when he used his inaugural speech as a platform to announce Peru’s unilateral moratorium on debt-service payments. Today, he pledges to follow orthodox economic policies, and is keen to avoid the mistakes that led to his leaving office in 1990 in disgrace, amid a shambolic, unsustainable economy.
The new cabinet
García’s appointment of a sixteen-member cabinet, announced on 27 July, underscores this point in three ways. First, he selected the conservative banker Luis Carranza as minister of economy and finance. Carranza returns to Peru from Spain, where he held a senior position at the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). Before this, he was one of the key confidants of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, the prime minister (and former finance minister) of outgoing president, Alejandro Toledo. Kuzcynski’s imprimatur on Peru’s economic policy during 2001-06 has been seen by the international financial community as a guarantee of fiscal and monetary rectitude.
It is precisely García’s former heterodoxy (which included the ill-fated attempt to nationalise Peru’s private banks in 1987) that makes him determined to take every step to convince the outside world that he has learned the errors of his former ways. In practical terms, he and Carranza will follow economic policies that are close to those of the Toledo administration. As always in Peru, however, there will be tension between the economy ministry and those in government who would like to see more public spending. In the short term, at least, the new economy minister will seek to maintain a tight grip on the public purse.
Second, García is determined to show that he is not going to pack his government with party loyalists as he did in his first term, when these became widely viewed as the beneficiaries of institutionalised corruption. Card-carrying members of the centre-left Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (Apra) are in a distinct minority in the new cabinet. García has gone out of his way to bring in independent technocrats. He has even reserved a seat round the cabinet table for the far-right Opus Dei militant, Rafael Rey, who becomes minister with responsibility for production. Apra militants privately feel rebuffed by García’s initial choice of ministers, though at least prime minister Jorge Del Castillo is one of their number.
A third criterion that has prevailed in the selection of the new cabinet is the number of women represented. García has strained to comply with a campaign promise – perhaps reflecting a concern not to be outdone in this respect by Chile’s new president Michelle Bachelet – to have a fifty-fifty split between men and women ministers. But to honour this commitment as far as possible (in the event only six women are included in the cabinet, including Mercedes Araoz as trade minister and Pilar Mazzetti as interior minister), there had to be last-minute changes which left one or two highly eligible males out in the cold.
The party landscape
The composition of García’s government also reflects new political realities arising from the results of the 2006 presidential contest. This saw the leftwing nationalist Ollanta Humala win more votes (just over 30% of ballots cast) in the first round on 9 April, with García only beating third-placed Lourdes Flores of the right-of-centre Unidad Nacional (UN) by the narrowest of margins. In order to win in the second round on 6 June, García had to appeal to conservative voters who had previously supported Flores. This meant that Apra found itself pushed to the right.
Humala’s party, Unión Por el Perú-Partido Nacionalista Peruano (UPP-PNP), is also the largest (with forty-five representatives) in the new 120-seat congress sworn in for a five-year term on 25 July; Apra (with thirty-six representatives) is the second-largest grouping. García could expect little support from Humala’s deputies who have no sympathy with neo-liberal economics and want a radical shift in Peru’s foreign and social policies. He therefore had little alternative but to seek collaboration where he could find it, on the right, and Unidad Nacional was the first port of call.
Although not prepared to enter any formal coalition with Apra, UN has made clear that it will support the government’s legislative agenda for the time being, so long as it roughly corresponds to policies that the right finds acceptable. Since Apra and the Partido Popular Cristiano (PPC), the senior partner in UN, are both reasonably disciplined parties, this should mean that the government can rely on majority support in the single-chamber congress. And even if it suffers defections, there are others from smaller parties that can probably be relied upon for help when needed. Moreover, Humala’s opposition UPP-PNP is proving extremely flaky, with early signs of internal schism.
The foreign-policy picture
If in its economic policies, Peru under García will seek to play by the established rules of the “Washington consensus”, in its foreign policy it is also likely to fall in closely with the United States in contraposition to countries like Venezuela and Bolivia that reject Washington’s tutelage in Latin America.
An early sign here is García’s apparent willingness to go along with the free-trade agreement (FTA) with the United States, negotiated by Toledo and signed in December 2005. During the presidential campaign, he argued the need for changes in the text agreed by Toledo, but these doubts seem to have dissipated in the face of Realpolitik. Although ratified by the outgoing Peruvian congress, it now seems unlikely that the FTA will be considered by the United States congress before the US’s mid-term elections in November 2006.
The pattern of García’s pre-inauguration travels – which have included trips to Brasilia, Santiago and Bogotá – suggest the flavour of likely alliances within Latin America. Peru will seek to align itself with governments that are moderate in their economic policies and prepared to do business with Washington. García has been particularly effusive towards Bachelet, promising détente in the prickly relationship between Peru and Chile in recent years. The Peruvian military regards the military balance as being stacked in Chile’s favour and regards rapprochement with suspicion; perhaps it is partly for this reason that García has chosen a retired general as his first vice-president.
The acrimonious war of words between Venezuela and Peru in recent months, heightened by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s open support for Humala in the Peruvian presidential race, is set to diminish. However, García is not inclined to cultivate friendship in Caracas if it means alienating Washington, and Chávez was conspicuously absent from the heads of state attending García’s inauguration.
In the case of Bolivia, the Peruvian position may be more accommodating. But, as in the past, the bottom line may prove to be Peruvian reluctance to go along with any territorial arrangement along its southern frontier that affords Bolivia some sort of access to the Pacific.
The social agenda
Peru has been among Latin America’s fastest growing economies in recent years, but a major challenge for the García government will be whether it has any more success than its predecessor in extending the benefits of this growth to the majority of the population officially classified as “poor”.
One of the main reasons for deep public disillusionment with the Toledo administration, which began with high hopes in 2001, was its abject failure to honour its campaign slogan of más trabajo (more work). More than half of the workforce continues to labour in the so-called “informal sector” where remuneration is low, employment unstable and where social benefits (such as pensions) are nil.
Alan García has promised to maintain Toledo’s flagship social programme, called Juntos. Like Bolsa Familiar in Brazil and Oportunidades in Mexico, this is a scheme for making direct payments to poor households where families accept the conditions attached by sending their children to school and having the stipulated health injections. The main problem here is that the programme (if implemented throughout the country) is fiscally expensive and is dependent on the highly deficient educational and health provision offered by the relevant ministries. Many families complain, for example, that there is little point in sending their children to school when there are not adequate numbers of qualified teachers and when children can earn money for the family by going to work.
The problem of poverty in Peru is most acute in the Andean highlands, especially in rural areas. Here García has promised to introduce a scheme known as the sierra exportadora whereby peasant farmers are encouraged to produce for niche export markets. For instance, there has been some success in exporting broccoli from the highland valleys, echoing Peru’s previous success as an exporter of asparagus. However, it is most unlikely that this will benefit more than a tiny fraction of Peru’s highland farmers, while many producing for the domestic urban market face the prospect of disabling competition from subsidised United States producers due to the FTA.
The scale of discontent among low-income households, especially in rural areas, was made clear by a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report released in March 2006 which showed a clear rejection of the way in which democratic institutions work in Peru. The elections themselves showed voters dividing along clear lines of class and income, with lower-income Peruvians (especially those of indigenous origin) voting massively for Humala. If García wants to avoid growing social tension and possibly political conflict, he will need to show that he can do something concrete for the millions of poor Peruvians who expressed confidence not in him but in Humala.
The next elections
Even before Peru’s new president and congress were installed, politicians’ minds were turning to the next electoral hurdle: municipal and regional elections scheduled for November. This will be the first major pointer as to whether Alan García can hold on to his newfound popularity or whether Humala and his friends will take advantage of a mood of disillusion and discontent at the sub-national level.
The last time regional elections were held, Apra won in nearly half of Peru’s twenty-five departments. This time, especially in light of their relegation to second place in the congressional elections, the party will be on the defensive. A weak result in the November elections could prove a major psychological blow for the country’s new government and its ruling party. Alan García has work to do.
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This article originally appeared on openDemocracy.net under a Creative Commons licence. To view the original article, please click here. |
John Crabtree is a research associate at Oxford University’s Centre for Latin American Studies. He is the author of Peru under Garcia: Opportunity Lost (Macmillan, 1992), Fujimori’s Peru (ILAS, 1998), and Patterns of Protest: Politics and Social Movements in Bolivia (Latin America Bureau, 2005). He is the editor of Making Institutions Work in Peru: Democracy, Development and Inequality since 1980 (Institute for the Study of the Americas, London University, April 2006).
Minute-by-Minute Coverage of Inauguration
Coverage of the inauguration of President Alan Garcia is being provided in English by Living in Peru.
Diario Financiero (Chile) on Toledo’s Legacy
Toledo se despide de un Perú agradecido con economía, pero insatisfecho con pobreza
Marta Lillo Bustos
Diario Financiero
28/7/2006
Alejandro Toledo tendría dificultades hoy para ceder el sillón presidencial a Alan García en Palacio Pizarro. En sus cinco años de gobierno, recién en los últimos cuatro meses logró lo que en un principio parecía imposible: más de 20% de la aprobación popular. Impresionante, considerando que el nivel de rechazo ciudadano del mandatario llegó incluso a 90% debido a una seguidilla de errores políticos, frivolidades poco celebradas por más del 51% de la población bajo la línea de la pobreza, y escándalos familiares que terminaron por mellar su imagen, y que incluso en 2003 casi le cuestan la presidencia.
¿Quiénes conforman el Gabinete?
En conferencia de prensa, el presidente Alan García resaltó que de los 15 integrantes de su primer Gabinete seis son mujeres, seis son militantes apristas y nueve son técnicos independientes, con lo que prácticamente cumplió con su promesa de paridad de género.
Garcia Speech to Americas Society
Here is the text of a recent speech given by Alan García to the Americas Society. Download file
This and other information can be gleaned from the July issue of News & Views, the newsletter of the Americas Society and the Council of the Americas.
The speech shows García trying to walk a line between emphasizing growth and retaining the stability achieved under the current economic model–indeed he aspires to achieving investment grade for Peru–while promoting equity and greater economic activity in rural areas. In terms of international relations, he emphasizes linkages with neighboring democracies in which the separation of powers is respected. That means countries like Chile, and is surely intended as a swipe at Venezuela.
Se define el Gabinete de Ministros IV
Source: El Comercio, 27 de julio del 2006
Se inician las actividades de transmisión de mando
Source: La República, 27 de julio del 2006
Mercedes Cabanillas proclamada presidenta del Congreso.
Source: La República, 27 de julio del 2006
La nueva Presidente del Congreso pidió apoyo a sus colegas parlamentarios para ejecutar reformas congresales. Acabará con la inmunidad parlamentaria.
Mandatarios extranjeros llegarán a partir de mañana
Los presidentes, todos latinoamericanos, que han confirmado su presencia a la ceremonia de transferencia de mando presidencial de Alan García son: Michelle Bachelet, de Chile; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, de Brasil; Néstor Kirchner, de Argentina; Álvaro Uribe, de Colombia; Alfredo Palacio, de Ecuador; Nicanor Duarte, de Paraguay; Evo Morales, de Bolivia; Elías Saca de El Salvador y Manuel Pelaya de Honduras.
Se define el Gabinete de Ministros III
UPDATED: Incidentes en la juramentación de congresistas
Source: La Primera, 26 de julio del 2006
Con muchos problemas, apelaciones a todo tipo de lemas y repeticiones al momento en que los congresistas prestaron juramento se realizó la ceremonia de juramentación de los parlamentarios para el periodo 2006-2011, destacando en esto los partidarios de UPP y sobretodo, los fujimoristas. El congresista Miró Ruiz Delgado (UPP) le dijo tránsfuga a Torres Caro y se retiró sin juraramentar, y Martha Acosta, tambièn de UPP, faltó a la sesión por su negativa a jurar ante el presidente de la Junta Preparatoria.
Entrevista a Luis Gonzáles Posada
Gonzáles Posada es el encargado de coordinar la transferencia en los ministerios del Interior y Defensa, así como de formular recomendaciones para ambos sectores.
Javier Diez Canseco sobre el próximo quinquenio
Conformación del Congreso 2006-2011
Source: El Comercio Online, 25 de julio del 2006
Hoy juramenta nuevo Congreso
La Junta Preparatoria que integran Carlos Torres Caro, Luciana León y Martha Hildebrandt tomará juramento a los nuevos parlamentarios.
¿Qué quieren oir los peruanos en el mensaje presidencial?
Source: La República, 25 de julio del 2006
Resultados de la encuesta realizada por Conecta Asociados SAC, a 1,319 personas en Lima, Callao y 10 ciudades al interior del país entre el 14 y 16 de julio.
Se define el Gabinete de Ministros II
Por lo menos en un 50% de los ministros del primer gabinete serán profesionales independientes o militantes de otros partidos, el resto será de militancia o relacionados al APRA.
Se define el Gabinete de Ministros
A las elecciones de Luis Carranza Ugarte en la cartera del Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas, de José Antonio García Belaunde como primer canciller y el más que seguro ingreso de Jorge Del Castillo a la Presidencia del Consejo de Ministros, ahora se añaden los nombres del electo parlamentario andino Rafael Rey, quien se haría cargo del Ministerio de la Producción, y de la actual ministra de Salud, Pilar Mazzetti, quien pasaría a la del Interior.
Nuevo Congreso inicia funciones
Hoy lunes a las 11 de la mañana se realizará la sesión de instalación de la Junta Preparatoria del Congreso presidida por Carlos Torres Caro, iniciándose su proceso reglamentario de instalación para el período 2006-2011 de 120 parlamentarios electos.
Interview with Mercedes Cabanillas (APRA)
Mensaje “austero” de Alan García para el 28 de julio
Se espera un mensaje de austeridad por parte del nuevo Presidente de la República que permita diferenciar lo que significó su primer gobierno.
Encuesta Datum: Alan García tiene el 50% de aprobación
Source: La República, 22 de julio del 2006
Según la última encuesta de Datum, la popularidad de Alan García llegó al 50%, con tendencia a seguir subiendo después de su mensaje presidencial del próximo 28 de julio. Subió 3 puntos con respecto al mes anterior.
Congresistas longevos que se retiran
Source: El Comercio, 22 de julio del 2006
Mirko Lauer sobre la mujer en la política peruana
APRA elige sus primeros ministros
El presidente electo del Perú, Alan García Pérez, eligió las dos primeras personas que lo acompañarán a tomar sus primeras medidas de gobierno, ellos son el neoliberal Luis Carranza Ugarte en la cartera del Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas y José Antonio García Belaunde, experimentado diplomático y amigo personal de García, será su primer canciller. Todo indica que el premier sería Jorge del Castillo, aunque no lo quiso confirmar.
The New Face of Fraud in Latin America: Examples from Mexico and Peru
Maxwell A. Cameron
July 20, 2006
Writing for The Guardian blog “Comment is free…” James Galbraith and Greg Palast have provided a great service by calling attention to the serious possibility of systematic fraud in the Mexican election. Neither offer definitive proof, but both provide information and analysis that, in conjunction with other deficiencies in the process, suggest this election may have been neither free nor fair. Yet I fear there is a danger that in searching for fraud of the sort that occurred in Mexico in 1988 we may miss the real story. The greatest obstacle to clean elections may arise not from systemic fraud but from the politicization of electoral processes.
The case of Peru is instructive. I recall a warning by a former Peruvian official at the outset of the election campaign. He said that systematic fraud by election authorities was unlikely, but incompetence among election officials, especially in the event of a close election, might create a context in which a loser might challenge an election result. Sure enough, one candidate (Lourdes Flores) raised doubts about the outcome, saying that she may have won in the ballot boxes but lost in the vote counting. To make matters worse, the ballots were destroyed after they were counted, making a recount impossible. Rather than a recount, judges ruled on the authenticity of voting returns.
The problem was not systematic fraud by the authorities. Elections are messy, especially when election authorities are badly trained and overworked. Parties must have scrutineers in every voting station to ensure mistakes or irregularities do not occur. Add weak party finance rules and media bias and you create conditions in which losers can’t accept defeat. Even if they believe they lost, both candidates and their strategists may impugn the electoral process in an effort to reinforce their image among supporters.
Something similar may be happening in Mexico. I doubt election authorities, in cahoots with the executive, engineered a massive conspiracy to defeat of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and place Felipe Calderón in Los Pinos. There is, however, plenty of proof of incompetence which, coupled with documented irregularities (and here bloggers deserve credit), provided an opportunity to dispute the outcome. Vote stealing may have occurred in places where the PRD did not have scrutineers. The PREP was designed to offer the image of transparency, but it backfired when officials acknowledged that the PREP count was not the same as the official count.
Mexico is not a country with a high tolerance for computer problems during elections. The historical memory of the computer crash during the fraudulent election of 1988 makes the acceptance of cybernetic irregularities impossible. The fear campaign by Mexico’s entrepreneurial elite—which spent millions in a campaign to convince nervous voters that they would lose everything if AMLO was elected—made it even harder for the PRD to accept defeat.
I am not saying the election was not stolen. It may have been. But so far we have better evidence of incompetence than malfeasance by the authorities. The problem is not just the errors of election authorities, however, but something more systemic: the politicization of state institutions. Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute used to be one of the nation’s most respected public institutions—and a model for the region. Now it has a black eye. Good institutions cannot operate in isolation. The government of President Vicente Fox contributed to undermining its own electoral authorities. As a result, Mexican democracy has suffered a regrettable setback.
Counting votes is not rocket science, but legitimate results are hard to produce when election officials do not inspire confidence and the electoral process is politicized. An exhaustive vote-by-vote recount is necessary, not to appease AMLO or legitimate Calderón, but for the sake of Mexico’s democratic system. Those who chastise AMLO for building a social movement for a recount of the vote forget that such tactics are both legal and democratic. The worrisome reality, however, is that Mexico’s judicial institutions may not be strong enough to serve as neutral umpires.
There is also a lesson here for international election observers. It is not good enough for election observers to arrive a shortly before an election, deploy a small force of observers, accept the assurances of local authorities, and declare the election to be a legitimate exercise. Elections require, among other things, organized parties, a vigorous civil society, and strong public institutions. In the absence of any of these conditions, electoral observation should be widened to include reporting on the state of democracy analogous to the human rights reporting currently conducted under the aegis of the United Nations.
UPDATE: For sharp criticism of electoral observation, see the article from La Jornada below.
El nuevo círculo que rodea a Alan García
Source: Perú 21, 20 de julio del 2006
El entorno de Alan García que ejerce influencia sobre él, no es muy amplio, pero tras la campaña electoral ha variado un poco destacando algunos nombres que antes de la elección no aparecían y que ahora han adquirido un mayor protagonismo.
Casi listo el primer gabinete de Alan García
Tras las especulaciones sobre quiénes integrarán el primer gabinete ministerial de Alan García solo se sabe que revelará los nombres que lo acompañará en su primer gabinete recién el 27 de julio, aunque se comenta que estaría conformado por al menos seis mujeres, una cuota de género empleada por primera vez en el Perú, y que el nombre del nuevo primer ministro “no necesariamente será un independiente o un aprista”, aunque el diario La Primera menciona que Jorge del Castillo será el flamante presidente del Consejo de Ministros tras imponer su candidatura a las de Javier Silva Ruete y Alfredo Barnechea.
Mesa de Mujeres Parlamentarias se instala en el Congreso
Las 35 congresistas electas de los partidos y alianzas UPP, APRA, Alianza Parlamentaria, Unidad Nacional y Alianza por el Futuro, el 29% de la representación parlamentaria, anunciaron su instalación, sentando un precedente interpartidario y comprometiéndose a trabajar por el fortalecimiento de la democracia, la gobernabilidad, el respeto a los derechos humanos y la igualdad de oportunidades de género.
Entrevista con Max Cameron Por Gonzalo García-Sayán
Punto de Equilibrio
Año 14 – Número 91
Julio-Setiembre 2006
¿Cuál le parece que es el mensaje principal que nos deja la campaña electoral?
Son varios mensajes. Uno de ellos es un deseo de cambio, que se expresa tanto por el voto de cambio radical de Ollanta Humala como por el voto a favor de Alan García que, como él ha tratado de expresarlo, era un voto de cambio responsable. En todo caso, ambos candidatos están apostando hacia el cambio en el sistema y en el modelo económico. Humala ofreció un cambio de modelo más profundo; sin embargo, se pueden interpretar los resultados como un rechazo a la continuidad. En ese sentido, lo que ha puesto sobre el tapete la candidatura de Ollanta Humala es un deseo de una inclusión de esa población de la sierra que no se siente beneficiada por el modelo económico.
En esta campaña hubo una especie de paradoja: las propuestas están tendiendo a una cierta convergencia; la derecha habló más que nunca de programas sociales y aun la izquierda más radical de Humala hablaba de balance fiscal. Sin embargo, a pesar de esta convergencia de planes, la división que generaron en la sociedad fue mayor que las antes vistas.
En el nivel de planes de gobierno, los tres principales candidatos hicieron mayor énfasis en las políticas sociales, por ejemplo. Y los planes de gobierno de Humala y García han tenido aspectos tan similares, que se han criticado mutuamente de plagio. Sin embargo, creo que los electores han sido sabios: han entendido que la elección no es solamente entre planes de gobierno, sino entre candidaturas que tienen detrás de ellos intereses específicos. Ese ha sido el caso de Lourdes Flores que, por más que su discurso buscaba votos en los conos, en las provincias y en el Sur, fue percibida como una candidata que tenía lazos fuertes con el sector empresarial, grupos de clase media o profesionales de Lima, sobre todo; mientras que la diferencia entre Humala y García ha sido que este último planteaba cambios en el campo económico, político, social, pero dentro del sistema político existente, sin buscar cambios de las reglas de juego político. Humala era un outsider que se enfrentó al sistema político.
¿Cómo ha sido tomada la victoria de García en el ámbito internacional?
Creo que ha sido tomada con alivio. La comunidad internacional, en general, tiene una lectura bastante superficial de la realidad peruana y se manejan ideas como que Humala representaba un eje de izquierda que iba a conectar a Castro a través de Chávez y Evo. Los mercados financieros estaban preocupados por las propuestas de Humala de nacionalizar ciertos sectores de la economía. En ese sentido, Alan García ha sido visto como un candidato capaz de frenar eso, lo cual es un poco irónico, pues en su tiempo fue considerado un niño malo.
Se está hablando de la presencia de dos izquierdas en la región: una radical, representada por Humala, Chávez, Morales, y una “moderna”, representada por Lula o por Bachelet. En este sentido, ¿se puede decir que el APRA es ahora una izquierda moderna?
Yo creo que sí, hasta cierto punto. Evidentemente, ese es el discurso de Alan García. Hay cierta validez en esa hipótesis, pero el problema con ese argumento es que el Perú no es Chile y tampoco es Venezuela; es un país con sus propias condiciones, que ha generado opciones distintas. Ollanta Humala no es tan radical como Chávez, ni tan democrático como Evo. Evo tiene detrás un movimiento social fuerte, de indigenismo combativo, que viene de mucho antes.
No es un outsider…
Claro. Son veinte años de lucha muy consecuente con los intereses que representa: los cocaleros, la lucha por el agua, las tierras, los recursos naturales. Hasta sus adversarios reconocen que su elección representa un paso adelante en términos de democratización del país. Es importante que haya un líder que represente los intereses de los que se sienten excluidos. Esto aun no los ha conseguido Humala. Sin embargo, los primeros indicios son que será una oposición dura a García, lo cual no es necesariamente malo. Alan García, por su parte, puede aspirar a ser un líder democrático moderno de izquierda moderada, social demócrata, pero tendrá que demostrarlo, porque ha propuesto hasta disolver el Congreso. Aunque él tampoco es tan demócrata social, esa es su aspiración y, sobre todo, la oposición radical de Ollanta Humala lo obliga a ser un líder de centro izquierda.
Y en los próximos meses, ¿en qué se deben concretizar las tareas de gobierno?
Lo que probablemente va a tratar de hacer el Gobierno es mandar señales de confianza al sector privado, tratar de convencer, sobre todo al empresariado local, de que va a mantener la estabilidad macro y el modelo económico. El reto de Alan García es tener un plan económico de mediano y largo plazo, algo que no logró en su primer gobierno. En el primer gobierno, su plan de corto plazo consistió en gastar las reservas; promover el crecimiento a través de la intervención del Estado, controlando los precios para evitar la inflación; lo que puede funcionar por unos meses. Pero más allá de eso, buscaba una inversión del sector privado para continuar ese crecimiento, objetivo que no logró porque el sector privado sabía que ese modelo no era sostenible. Por ello, sacaron su dinero, lo cual socavó el proyecto. Era evidente que esas propuestas económicas no tenían credibilidad para el mediano y largo plazo. Por lo tanto, Alan García tendrá que mandar una señal clarísima. No va a ser tan difícil, porque el Perú no está en un momento de inflación, deuda externa, violencia.
¿Podría enviar señales contradictorias?
Si bien es un líder percibido como muy hábil para enviar mensajes distintos, en función de sus audiencias, deberá evitar mandar señales contradictorias que generen pérdida de confianza en su gobierno. Como líder, tiene que ser lo suficientemente inteligente, pensar en el largo plazo, para entender la necesidad de articular ese modelo exportador de la costa con la sierra a través de proyectos de infraestructura, de créditos, de capacitación, de manera que incluya el sur andino y la sierra central y norte en ese crecimiento. Un tema que va a provocar mucha discusión es el TLC. ¿Cómo vas a abrir el mercado interno a la globalización cuando tienes millones de personas que no están en condiciones de participar en el mercado? Eso va a requerir políticas del Estado fuertes, para evitar perjudicar más a los que no se sienten beneficiados por el crecimiento que se ha tenido hasta ahora; en particular, en los lugares que no votaron por Alan García.
En esos lugares, la victoria de Humala ha sido abrumadora.
Este es un anclaje en el país muy antiguo, entre Norte y Sur, entre sierra y costa, que se ha acentuado. El hecho de que Humala gane con más de 80% en Ayacucho, muestra que el país está dividido. Tendría quizá sentido empezar a pensar en formas de permitir más autonomía a las regiones, porque es clara la división en el país, lo cual es un reto para este gobierno.
Además de eso, las elecciones nos han mostrado la capacidad del Estado peruano de llevar a cabo un proceso electoral, que es importante para la consolidación de una democracia. Al mismo tiempo, se debe reconocer que hay más de un millón de peruanos que no tienen documentos. Si el elector no tiene identidad legal, no puede ser ciudadano. Hay muchas cosas que se pueden hacer para incluir a más personas en el proceso político, que no costarían mucho, pero fortalecerían la presencia del Estado y, al mismo tiempo, la sociedad civil.
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Entrevista a Hernando de Soto por El Financiero (Chile)
El reconocido economista peruano Hernando de Soto opinó en una entrevista al diario chileno El Financiero sobre los gobiernos latinoamericanos, que el nuevo presidente del país, Alan García, no cometerá los mismos errores que realizó en su pasado gobierno.
Junta Preparatoria rechaza resguardo policial para el martes 25
El presidente de la Junta Preparatoria, Carlos Torres Caro, indicó que no se piensa solicitar una dotación policia especial para que vigile la juramentación del próximo martes 25 en el Congreso, pensamiento que comparte Marcial Ayaipoma, el presidente del Congreso saliente, quien afirmó que la policía solo debe cuidar sus exteriores pero no ubicarse dentro del hemiciclo por ser un acto democrático.
Nueva pugna en el PPC por “Candidaturas Vitalicias”
Tras las declaraciones de Ántero Flores Aráoz, quien sostuvo que el PPC necesita renovarse y no debe comprometerse a “candidaturas vitalicias”, se inició una nueva pugna de poder por el partido. Xavier Barrón afirmó que Lourdes Flores debe seguir siendo líder y “futura candidata presidencial”, porque las bases del partido lo desean y porque no hay nadie por el momento capaz de reemplazarla, mientras que la lideresa de Unidad Nacional y presidenta del PPC rechazó que haya candidaturas vitalicias.
Total control para el martes 25 en el Congreso
Junta Preparatoria conduce desde hoy el proceso de instalación del Congreso
La Junta Preparatoria del Congreso conformada por Martha Hildebrandt, Luciana León y Carlos Torres se encarga desde el día de hoy, y durante los próximos nueve días, del proceso de instalación para el próximo período 2006-2010: Tomarán juramento a los nuevos parlamentarios, conducirán la elección de la mesa directiva y coordinarán su ubicación en los escaños y oficinas. El presidente de la Junta Preparatoria del Congreso, Carlos Torres Caro, anunció que los congresistas que protagonicen escándalos durante la ceremonia de juramentación de sus cargos serán sancionados.
OAS Congratulates Peru on Elections — El Peruano
Saludan en la OEA transparencia de elecciones peruanas: Afirman que Pacto Ético Electoral podría ser modelo para los países de América
El Peruano
14 julio, 2006
Conformación del nuevo Congreso
Fuente: La República, 14 de julio del 2006
Las cinco futuras bancadas electas en las pasadas elecciones presidenciales del 9 de abril tienen claro cuales serán sus ubicaciones para los próximos cinco años de gobierno.
Nueva alianza PPC-Solidaridad Nacional
Esta renovación del pacto político Unidad Nacional (UN), será hasta el 2010 e irá más allá del proceso electoral, declararándose disuelta la actual alianza que estaba conformada además por las agrupaciones políticas Renovación Nacional y Cambio Radical.
OAS Mission Chief Axworthy Presents Report on Election
LLOYD AXWORTHY, HEAD OF THE ELECTORAL OBSERVATION MISSION AND RAFAEL BIELSA, HEAD OF THE ELECTORAL OBSERVATION MISSION
PRESENTATION TO THE PERMANENT COUNCIL OF THE OAS OF THE CHIEF OF THE ELECTORAL OBSERVATION MISSION TO THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN PERU, JUNE 4, 2006
July 12, 2006 – Washington, DC
Congresistas jurarán el 25 de julio
La Junta Preparatoria del nuevo Parlamento integrada por Carlos Torres Caro, Martha Hildebrandt y Luciana León, fijó para el martes 25 de julio su primera reunión en la que tomará juramento a los nuevos 120 congresistas, y al día siguiente se votará para elegir a los miembros de la mesa directiva. Torres Caro aclaró que congresistas que juren de espaldas serán sancionados según el reglamento del Congreso.
Interview with Enrique García – Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF)
Partidos políticos definirán Comisiones Ordinarias
Los partidos políticos que lograron superar la valla electoral, y con esto una representación en el Congreso, definirán en reuniones internas desde esta semana cuáles serán las comisiones ordinarias que desean presidir.
Informe de Observa sobre el último proceso electoral
El Observatorio de la Vigilancia Social (Observa) emitió su segundo boletín, en el que entrega información cuantitativa sobre el último proceso electoral. Esta es una iniciativa de coordinación, promoción y difusión de la vigilancia de la sociedad civil, impulsada por entidades como Transparencia, Ciudadanos al Día, el CIES, la Mesa de Concertación de Lucha contra la Pobreza, entre otros.
Mirko Lauer sobre la división del humalismo
Fin de la alianza UPP-PNP
José Vega, secretario general de UPP, ratificó que este partido y PNP irán solos en próximos comicios de noviembre, mientras que Aldo Estrada, su presidente, manifestó que están preparados y dispuestos a este hecho. Para el Sociólogo Carlos Reyna, este puede ser el primer paso para una división irreversible debido a sus diferencias de tipo ideológico y político.