Martha Chávez, aspirante a la presidencia de Alianza por el Futuro, afirmó que el gobierno oculta los resultados de una supuesta encuesta que ubica a Ollanta Humala (UPP) en el primer lugar con 21% de intención de voto, seguido por Alan García (APRA) con 20%, desplazando a Lourdes Flores (UN) al tercer lugar con 19%. Chávez se ubicaría en el cuarto lugar con 15%. La candidata fujimorista insistió en acusar de que “el andamiaje del toledismo está puesto al servicio de Humala”.
Author: Michael Ha
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones ratificó las tachas contra 35 candidatos al congreso con fallos inapelables. Las organizaciones políticas que más bajas sufrieron son Alianza Para el Progreso de Natale Amprimo, con 11 candidatos tachados, y Concertación Descentralista de Susana Villarán, con 10.
Salomón Lerner, ex presidente de la Comisión de la Verdad y Reconciliación (CVR), conversó con el diario Perú 21 sobre el tema de los DD.HH. en la agenda electoral de los candidatos a las próximas elecciones y su poco esfuerzo por convencer a las masas con propuestas concretas sobre los problemas reales del país.
Survey conducted by the Grupo de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Lima.
Sample: 605 men and women interveiwed in 36 districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Margin of error: +/-4.07% Download file
Survey conducted by the Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú between February 24-26, 2006.
Sample: 1,767 men and women in 77 districts in 19 urban provinces from 17 departments Download file
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 7, 2006
Alan García and Ollanta Humala have little chance of winning in a runoff against Lourdes Flores. All the available polls suggest that Flores dominates all other candidates in a second round. The reason lies in the very low level of negative rating of Flores. Support for Flores has tended to hover around 35 percent of the electorate nation-wide, and higher in Lima. But very few people say they would never vote for Flores, whereas substantial numbers of voters show strong antipathy to both García and Humala.
It may be that the best chance for García and Humala is to seek to eliminate Flores from contention in the first round. In a runoff between García and Humala, the result is anyone’s guess. Luis Benavente, director of the Grupo de Opinión de la Universidad de Lima, predicts that the final stretch of the campaign will almost certainly involve “negative campaigns” against Flores. Indeed, negative campaigning has already begun. Posters and fliers have begun to appear that present Flores as the candidate of the Banco de Credito. UN spokepersons are drawing parallels with the efforts to tarnish the reputation of Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990 by stressing his links with bankers and the wealthy.
Photo: Expreso, March 6, 2006
Lourdes Flores has complained that these attacks are part of a “dirty war” against her. To this, García has responded by saying “APRA has nothing to do with this [dirty war] for one reason: I say directly that UN represents the right, that it carries within its womb representatives of the bankers…this does not have to be done using a black campaign or with posters.”
Not everyone is of the view that García and Humala would prefer a runoff against each other. In a recent editorial, Augusto Alvarez Rodrich sought to decipher the strategies of candidates based upon whom they would most like to face in a runoff. He concluded that Flores would prefer Humala, Humala would prefer Garcia, and Garcia would prefer Flores.
The daily newspaper Correo, however, reports that APRA strategists are looking at a second round with Humala. Said Jorge del Castillo, Garcia’s right hand man: “I see Lourdes falls 5 percent in a recent poll and Garcia rises 4 percent. In five polls the tendency of Alan Garcia is to rise, and that of Flores is to fall. I am sure we are going into the second round. Until recently, I thought it was with Lourdes. Now I put that in doubt.” The possibility of a runoff between Garcia and Humala is still remote, but you can be sure it is being discussed behind closed doors.
Although Flores has proven unable to generate an upward momentum in her campaign, her performance has, thus far, been formidable. Her best strategy is to hold her lead and not make any major mistakes before April 9. At the same time, she should not be over-cautious. The final weeks will be dynamic, and she will need to be able to respond quickly to deflect attacks–especially from Alan Garcia.
Speaking in Quimbiri, a coca-producing region on the border between Ayacucho and Cusco, Ollanta Humala said Peru’s anti-narcotics efforts could operate without the assistance of the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). Humala is hoping to win the votes of coca-producing peasants in the highlands. He arrived in the area accompanied by coca leader Elsa Malpartida, candidate for the Andean Parliament for Union for Peru (Union Por el Peru, or UPP). According to Malpartida, fumigation of coca damages other plans grown in the area. Humala stated that he opposes the presence for foreign military personnel in Peru.
El Comercio offers two contrasting views on Humala’s position. Fernando Rospigliosi says Humala’s position favors drug traffickers since 90 percent of coca grown in Peru is illegal and supplies the drug trade. Without international assistance, Peru would succumb to drug trafficking. Hugo Cabieses favors the suspension of forceful eradication of coca following a gradual reduction of coca production based on cooperation with coca producing peasants. He cautions, however, that the proposal to expel the DEA is a copy the government of Hugo Chavez. Cabieses also notes the links between drug traffickers and the Shining Path.
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Interview with Arturo Woodman
In an interview with Mariella Balbi, Arturo Woodman, vice presidential candidate for National Unity, denies that he represents the Romero group.
The controversy between the National Election Board (JNE) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) could frustrate the calendar for the scheduled April 9 elections. Until the JNE determines who can run in this election, the ONPE cannot print the ballots. That, at least, is what the officials from ONPE appear to be saying. The JNE is saying the 90 percent of the ballots can be printed now. ONPE says this is wrong, that all the material must be printed at once. According to ONPE, the JNE has approved the final list of names for the presidential ballot and the Andean Parliament, but has not produced the final list of candidates to the congress. Without the definitive list, the ballots cannot be printed.
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PAIT Redux?
APRA has taken an old idea and tailored it to win votes among youth. In the 1985-1990 government of Alan García Pérez, the Program of Support for Temporary Income (PAIT) was a make-work program that employed thousands of informal sector workers, offering a supplement to their income. It now plans to re-tool the program to target youth. PAIT was managed by party loyalists and used for electoral ends. More importantly, it was a bandage program that formed part of an unsustainable economic strategy. Enrique Cornejo, one of APRA’s main economic thinkers, promises that this time the PAIT will be more transparent. Clearly APRA strategists are calculating that the idea of reviving the PAIT will win more youth votes that it will lose votes by reminding the electorate old enough to remember the bad old days of the first García government.
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Flores seeks undecided voters
Lourdes Flores, candidate for National Unity, has recognized that she has dropped slightly in the polls, and has announced that her campaign will focus on picking up support from the roughly 25 percent of the electorate that remains undecided. She accepts that some people who have supported her may have defected, and she will seek to win them back. She disagrees with those who argue that the polls understate the strength of her rivals, saying the evidence is that may of the undecided voters view her candidacy with sympathy. Flores is also sticking to her strategy of focusing on character rather than issues. “The problem is not who sets the issues, but who do you believe.”
Forensic excavations will be undertaken in the military base in Madre Mia where Ollanta Humala was stationed in 1992. Based on witness reports, inspectors believe extrajudicial executions may have occurred on our around the base.
Meanwhile, the dispute continues over whether Humala should have copies of his own military record.
Nadine Heredia, wife of Ollanta Humala, has emerged as an increasingly important part of Humala’s campaign. She was on the television program “Día D” last night, with Nicolas Lucar. She described her involvement in student politics in opposition to the government of Alberto Fujimori as a formative part of her development, and she said that Ollanta Humala attempted to organize uprisings against Fujimori on two occasions prior to the rebellion on October 29, 2000. She criticized Lourdes Flores and her political party, the Popular Christian Party, for being too close to the Fujimori regime. Heredia says that if Humala is elected he will clean up corruption in the armed forces, and that one of the first things he would do would be to remove all the military officers who signed notes of allegiance to Vladimiro Montesinos under the Fujimori regime. For Fernando Rospigliosi, a prominent analyst of defense issues and former Minister of the Interior, the proposal to purge the armed forces would be used as a pretext to assert control over the armed forces, Chavez-style.
Source: La República, 5 de marzo del 2006
Tras los resultados que difundieron en los últimos días las empresas encuestadoras Apoyo, CPI y la Universidad Católica, el último sondeo realizado por la Universidad de Lima indica que Lourdes Flores bajó cinco puntos, mientras que sus más cercanos perseguidores, Ollanta Humala y Alan García, han incrementado sus porcentuales en 4.5% y 4.2%. Luis Benavente, director del Grupo de Opinión Pública de la Universidad de Lima y los voceros de las diversas tiendas políticicas explican un poco el por qué de esta caída de la candidata de Unidad Nacional.
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Gender as a political weapon
Tyler Bridges has written an interesting report on women in politics in Latin America. His story profiles Lourdes Flores and Michelle Bachelet as examples of the growing importance of women in the region’s electoral politics. The topic of gender in politics has become increasingly polemical. On Friday, in a bizarre statement that has been widely repudiated, first lady Eliane Karp suggested that Flores, who is single, should give birth as women do in indigenous communities — without clinics, medical instruments, and risking malaria and other diseases — in order to appreciate the conditions in which indigenous women live.
Encuesta nacional realizada por el Grupo de Opinión Pública (GOP) de la Universidad de Lima a 2, 251 personas en zonas urbanas y rurales de 25 regiones, 58 provincias y 144 distritos de todo el Perú, con el propósito de obtener información sobre opiniones, hábitos y actitudes de la población electoral del Perú en relación a temas electorales. El trabajo de campo se realizó del viernes 24 al domingo 26 de febrero de este año. Download file
We now know who was Ollanta Humala’s direct superior when he was chief of a military base in Madre Mia in 1992: Benigno Cabrera Pino. Cabrera Pino was also one of the commanders who freed the hostages taken by the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) in the Japanese ambassador’s residence in Lima in December 1996. There were extrajudicial executions in that operation. He was also involved, according to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, in extrajudicial executions in the Huallaga river in 1994.
Meanwhile, a fight has broken out between the Minister of Defense, Marciano Rengifo, who after weeks of stonewalling finally announced that Humala’s military record was vandalized and contains no information on his activities in 1992. Humala claims he has a photocopy of the report for that year, which he threatens to release unless the Minister provides an official copy within 5 days. In response, the Minister alleges it is a crime for a soldier to photocopy his own file.
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The Case Against José Luna Gálvez
The candidacy of José Luna Gálvez, of National Unity, has been rejected by the National Election Board because he has charges pending against him for having received money from Vladimiro Montesinos in exchange for joining the government bench in 2000. Lourdes Flores has reportedly not decided whether to go to bat for Luna.
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 3, 2006
A working breakfast on “Public Electoral Broadcasting and Access to the Media” was held on Thursday, March 1, 2006, 8:00-9:30 am, sponsored by Transparencia and IDEA. This rapporteur’s report summarizes some of the key issues and conclusions to emerge from the discussion. Participants holding public office (see list below) spoke on a not-for-attribution basis.
Photo: J. Bazo
Access to the media for political candidates has dramatically improved since 2000. Under the government of Alberto Fujimori, much of the mass media—especially network television and the popular press—was corrupted. Voters today have a better chance of getting the accurate and diverse sources of information and opinion they need to cast their ballots than they did under the previous regime.
Under Peru’s 2003 Law of Political Parties, all registered political candidates are guaranteed free airtime on both private and public television. This system is called the “franja electoral”—the electoral strip. According to Fernando Tuesta, the franja electoral is an offspring of the 2000 transition; it emerged from the OAS-sponsored dialogue round tables. According to the law, “from 30 days to two days prior to the general elections, political parties have free access, as established in this law, to the media of radio broadcasting and television, of private property or the state, in an electoral strip” (Article 37, Ley 28094: Ley de Partidos Politicos). The idea was to counter the power of money: unless all candidates were given publicly subsidized time on television, the broadcast media would be monopolized by candidates with deep pockets.
Fernando Tuesta and Percy Medina
Photo: J. Bazo
The Law of Political Parties did not, however, adequately address a key problem: how should the franja electoral be financed? It is not in the spirit of the law for the franja electoral to be a lucrative business for television stations. Informing the public is part of the responsibility of the media as publicly chartered and regulated bodies. When the law was being made, however, there was an energetic lobbying effort by the media, as a result of which the law indicates: “The state will compensate the communications media by means of a proportional reduction in the payment of the toll for the use of the radio-electric and electromagnetic spectrum.” In practice, the media have profited from the franja electoral by charging high rates.
Television stations have established rates that they charge for airtime, but these can often be negotiated. The Peruvian government has little capacity to negotiate with the media over the rates the public must pay for the franja electoral, however, especially in the middle of an election campaign. Whereas the government is obliged by the law to provide broadcasting time to the parties, the media are not obliged to accept a particular rate.
The electoral authorities are already running against the clock. It will be impossible to have the franja electoral ready before about March 17 or 18, at least on network television (Channel 7, owned by the state, has already begun the franja electoral). The reasons for this delay have to do with administrative procedures. For one thing, the funding is not yet in place. A permanent commission in the congress is considering the funding issue. There is a proposal to authorize the use of S/. 20 million that was initially appropriated for the electronic voting system prior to its cancellation. [This has been approved. See update here]. This will probably be reallocated to pay for the franja electoral. The delay could cause disagreements among political candidates over what to do in the week in mid-March when the franja is not in operation.
The franja electoral is, in part, designed to ensure a minimum level of equity in media coverage, and to allow the candidates to say more about their proposals than is possible in brief spots. Taylor Boas noted that the typical 30 second spot does not give candidates enough time to convey much of substance, whereas the franja electoral enables them to develop their proposals in greater depth.
According to Percy Medina, research by Transparencia has found that the media has inadequately performed it responsibility to provide crucial information to voters. Only about 8 percent of the coverage of the election in 54 newspapers throughout Peru between January 10 and February 10 dealt with the candidates’ plans for government.
The media have also been criticized by some of the candidates for not providing equitable coverage to all candidates. With 22 presidential candidates and nearly 3,000 candidates running for congress, the media can hardly be expected to provide equal coverage to all contenders. Moreover, the news media in Peru have always had political biases, as do news organizations everywhere. The media cannot afford to ignore their bottom line, which is closely connected to ratings.
That said, as Luis Nunes stressed, there is, with notable exceptions, a lack of balance in television news coverage. Some daily newspapers do not openly endorse candidates, but provide them with protective shields. In the long run, public trust in the media might be reinforced by a clearer separation between the opinions of the owners of the media and the content of news reporting.
Luis Nunes
Photo: J. Bazo
Participants:
Engelbert Barreto Huamán, JNE
Fabiola Bazo, “Peru Election 2006”
Jorge Bazo, “Peru Election 2006”
Taylor Boas, University of California
Luz María Correa, Canadian Embassy
Maxwell A. Cameron, University of British Columbia
Alfonso Chan, ONPE
Percy Medina, Transparencia
Luis Nunes Bertoldo, NDI
Luis C. Seghelmeble Riera, RENIEC
Fernando Tuesta, La Universidad Católica del Perú
Fabiola Bazo
March 3, 2006
Susel Paredes, Jana Villayzan and Tito Bracamonte, congressional candidates for the Socialist Party, gathered with a group of friends and supporters in a local chifa on the evening of March 3. Representatives from human rights organizations, academia and the arts joined the candidates, who were feeling boosted by the results of the latest Catholic University national poll. The poll gave the Socialist Party more than 5% of voter intentions; it also found that more than one third of the voters interviewed in Lima would approve of the election of a gay or lesbian candidate for congress.
Susel Paredes, Congresional Candidate
Photo: J. Bazo
Paredes is a long time member of the Socialist Party. She was chosen congressional candidate through internal primaries. To win the internal election she travelled across the country seeking to win the support of labor and grassroots organizations as a lesbian candidate. She was ranked 5th out of 35 candidates.
Tito Bracamonte, Candidate to Andean Parliament and former president of the Homosexual Movement of Lima (MOHL)
Photo: J. Bazo
Jana Villayzan, Candidate to Andean Parliament
Photo: J. Bazo
A note on the gathering (in Spanish) can be found at: Diario de Lima Gay
Source: La República, 3 de marzo del 2006
En el último sondeo de la Universidad Católica, la candidata de Unidad Nacional aún se mantiene como lider de las preferencias del electorado, pero ha perdido seis puntos en Lima en elación a los votos válidos que siginifica un fuerte revés en sus aspiraciones de llegar a la presidencia, puesto que la capital es uno de sus bastiones electorales. En cuanto a sus contendores más cercanos, Ollanta Humala ganó tres puntos en Lima, obteniendo el 22%, y Alan García dos, para llegar al 14%. Algo que había sorprendido en la encuesta de Idice se presenta en este sondeo en el interior del país, donde Flores tiene el 29% y Ollanta Humala la empata con el 28%, mientras que Alan García se mantiene a la expectativa con el 20%. Los dos últimos captan mayor intención de voto en provincias.
El Congreso aprobó ayer la autorización a la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) de utilizar 20 millones de soles de su presupuesto para la implementación de la franja electoral en los medios de comunicación no estatales.
Para los analistas políticos Fernando Rospigliosi, Alfredo Torres y Manuel Saavedra, la distancia que existe entre Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala y Alan García con el resto de los aspirantes es tan marcada que ninguno de los llamados candidatos “chicos”, de Valentín Paniagua hacia abajo, puede remontarla en circunstancias normales. La eventual segunda vuelta se definirá entre dos de estos tres candidatos.
David Hidalgo Vega, periodista de El Comercio, muestra un perfil de la trayectoria del líder del Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM).
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Posible regreso de Fujimori al Perú
El ex presidente Alberto Fujimori estudia la posibilidad de allanarse a la extradición debido a dos poderosos motivos: las negativas del ministro (juez chileno) Orlando Álvarez de otorgarle la libertad o el arresto domiciliario, pero sobretodo, por la ubicación en las encuestas de su candidata presidencial, Martha Chávez. Se piensa que su presencia (aunque detenido), ayudaría a su movimiento a tener una mayor presencia en la contienda electoral.
The Ministry of Defense, after weeks of stonewalling about Ollanta Humala’s military record, now acknowledges that its files on Humala have been vandalized. The material on the key periods of interest to the public (including 1992 when Humala was in Madre Mia) are gone. Calls for the Minister of Defense Marciano Rengifo’s resignation are intensifying.
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Lourdes Flores’ Inner Circle
Here are two excellent reports on Lourdes Flores’ campaign. The first, by Pedro Tenorio of Peru21, focuses on her inner circle, and indicates that Colombian campaign strategist Gloria Isabel Ramirez (aka Glorisa) is the architect of Flores’ strategy of direct contact with the people (walks through shantytowns, trips to the provinces). The second report, by Gustavo Gorriti for La Republica, also focuses on Flores’ key campaign strategists, with more discussion Glorisa as well as Rafael Fernandez Stoll Marchena, another key organizer.
55 congressional candidate have been told their papers are not in order; if they want to run for office they must get their documents to the National Election Board in time for an appeal. Candidates who hold public office must show they are on unpaid leave. The JNE decided to require that candidates provide documentation to this effect in a decision published on February 3, only 5 days before the deadline to register. Fernando Tuesta, former director of ONPE, said the JNE is being legalistic and bureaucratic in some cases. Legal paperwork should not override the constitutional right to be elected. The ONPE is worried that the large number of rejections and appeals could result in serious delays, and has called for the JNE to resolve the cases as quickly as possible. ONPE does not want to print the ballots until all the candidates are finalized. Otherwise, candidates could appear on the ballots who are, in effect, ineligible for office. The ballots and accompanying instructional material must be distributed across the country in a timely manner. Ballots are supposed to be finalized on March 15.
Source: La Primera, 2 de marzo del 2006
The latest national poll by Idice, commissioned by the Universidad Garcilaso de la Vega, came up with a surprising result: Lourdes Flores is first with 24.3%, and close behind her is Alan García, with 22.4%. Ollanta Humala is in third place with 19.3%.
These finding should be read with skepticism. There are 94 firms doing opinion polling in Peru, not all have the same track record. APRA has certainly surged, but it is unlikely that García is near first place. These results are out of line with the findings of the Catholic University and CPI.
La última encuesta a nivel nacional de la empresa Idice, por encargo de la Universidad Garcilaso de la Vega, presentó un sorprendente resultado: Primer lugar para Lourdes Flores con 24.3%, y muy cerca suyo Alan García, con 22.4%. Ollanta Humala baja al tercer lugar con 19.3%.
Este trabajo de campo abarcó 21 regiones, 37 provincias y 140 distritos de todo el país. El nivel de confianza es del 95% y el margen de error de +- 4.5%.
The latest poll by the Catholic University finds that Lourdes Flores has maintained the lead with 29% of respondents saying they intend to vote for her, followed by Ollanta Humala with 20% and Alan Garcia with 14%. Paniagua has 6% and Martha Chavez has 4%.
A surprising finding here is that the Socialist Party has 5.5% of the congressional voter intentions according to this poll. UPP is way behind APRA, with 10.8% to 21.1% respectively. Interesting to note that APRA is probably pulling Garcia up in the polls, not vice versa.
La última encuesta nacional realizada por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica (PUCP) confirman la tendencia del electorado en los últimos meses: Lourdes Flores se mantiene sólida en el primer lugar con el 29% de las preferencias, seguida por Ollanta Humala con 20%, Alan García con 14%, Valentín Paniagua con 6% y Martha Chávez con 4%. Es preocupante que a casi un mes de las elecciones exista un 19% que votará en blanco, viciado o que aún no ha decidido su voto.
En cuanto a las encuestas al Congreso el primer lugar de los votos validos esta muy cerrado entre Unidad Nacional (26.1%) y el Apra (21.1%). Alejados se encuentran UPP (10.8%), Frente de Centro (6.6%), Alianza por el Futuro (5.7%), Partido Socialista (5.5%), Perú Posible (5%), aunque todos pasen la valla electoral.
Esta encuesta fue realizada entre el 24 y 26 de febrero por la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP), con un universo de 1,767 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años, electores hábiles de 19 provincias urbanas principales del Perú. El nivel de error y confianza estimado es de +- 2.31%, con un nivel de confianza del 95%.
Descargue la encuesta completa en PDF.
Poll by Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercados y Opinión Pública S.A.C. an exclusive for Correo. Results based on valid votes:
Lourdes Flores: 34.1%
Ollanta Humala: 25.5%
Alan Garcia: 21.5%
Universe: 2,100 individuals interviewed in 20 Departaments, 99 Provinces and 280 Districts across the country.
Results: Download file
Charts: Download file
Source: La República, 2 de marzo del 2006
La encuestadora Idice, aplicando la cédula de votación, ha detectado que el voto escondido lo comparten Alan García del Partido Aprista Peruano, con un 5%, y el grupo de los candidatos de menor arraigo con 8%.
Source:La República, March 1, 2006
Source: La República, 1 de marzo del 2006
Mediante un sorteo público se decidió la ubicación de los partidos y organizaciones que participarán en el proceso electoral del próximo 9 de abril. 21 organizaciones presentaron lista presidencial y lista al Congreso, y 3 al Parlamento. El Partido Socialista, que lidera Javier Diez Canseco, será el primero en la relación de las organizaciones incluidas en esta cédula electoral que, con un largo de casi 45 cm., será la más extensa de todos los comicios anteriores.
El caso de las presuntas violaciones a los DDHH por parte del comandante(r) Ollanta Humala en la base contrasubversiva de Madre Mía, ha dado un giro inesperado. Ante la denuncia formulada en el programa periodístico La Ventana Indiscreta, el Ministerio de Defensa (Mindef) confirmó la desaparición de parte de su expediente, sustrayéndose los informes de eficiencia de 1992, con una estadía de seis meses en la base de Madre Mía, Tingo María, como responsable del batallón Contrasubversivo Nº 331, asi como los de 1999 en el cuartel militar de Huancayo como miembro de la División de Infantería y del 2002 como agregado militar en Francia.
La documentación que debió ser enviada al Archivo General del Ejército debido a que Humala había pasado al retiro, estaba indebidamente en poder del coronel Luis Pereira Briceño, jefe de la Sección de Administración de la Carrera del Oficial (SACO) de Artillería. El ministro de Defensa, Marciano Rengifo, sostuvo que los “informes de eficiencia” que faltan del expediente del comandante en retiro no confirman si es que este fue el “capitán Carlos”, aunque tendrá que explicar ante el Congreso esta mutilación en el legajo de Humala.
Poll made by Apoyo Opinion y Mercado for Cuarto Poder and Opinion Data, February 20-24, 2006. Universe: 2,000 personas across the country. Download file
Source: La República, 28 de febrero del 2006
De acuerdo con los resultados al 100% de la última encuesta de Apoyo, el porcentaje de indecisos ha aumentado en 15% los últimos 45 días. Es sumamente preocupante el hecho de que el número de los que no saben o no precisan, y los que piensan votar en blanco o viciado sea mayor a la intención de voto por Lourdes Flores, quien encabeza las encuestas con 24.42%. El diario La República conversó con el analista Alberto Adrianzén y el historiador Antonio Zapata, quienes coinciden en que este nicho de electores es el que definirá el resultado de las elecciones.
Source: La República, 28 de febrero del 2006
Según el último informe elaborado por la institución Transparencia, solo el 8.16 % de las informaciones que se han publicado en el primer mes de campaña en los diversos medios de comunicación se han referido a los planteamientos de los partidos políticos en carrera electoral. Se evaluaron 54 diarios (13 de Lima y 41 de 19 ciudades), y se llegó a la conclusión de que la mayor parte de los medios escritos se ocupa más de las declaraciones y denuncias en medio de la campaña (sobretodo de los escándalos), que de los planes de gobierno.
Source: La República, 28 de febrero del 2006. Foto: Oscar Farje.
Alan García, candidato presidencial por el APRA, habló sobre su repunte en las últimas encuestas (de las que antes criticaba), su campaña agresiva en los próximos 40 días para convencer a la población de que es la opción, pero sobretodo, para captar el voto juvenil y de las madres de familia a ritmo de reggaetón y vasos de cerveza.
El reportero Ítalo Sifuentes Alemán del diario El Comercio, conversó en el penal de Piedras Gordas con Antauro Humala, quien reconoció que su hermano Ollanta es el discutido “Capitán Carlos” que operó en Madre Mía. Mediante un manuscrito, afirmó que en la lucha antiterrorista el ahora candidato a la presidencia actuó de Unión por el Perú (UPP), “de acuerdo con las reglas del Ejército” durante el gobierno de Alberto Fujimori bajo la asesoría de Vladimiro Montesinos.
Source: Perú 21, 28 de febrero del 2006. Foto: Martín Pauca.
La respuesta a la campaña “reggaetonera” del APRA. Tras experimentar un ligero bajón en la última encuesta de Apoyo, el día de ayer se presentaron los dos primeros (de una serie de 5) spots televisivos de Unidad Nacional, cada uno destinado a un tema específico: La emigración de jóvenes sin trabajo, problemática de la salud, seguridad ciudadana, generación de empleo y educación. Representantes de la alianza política indicaron que no se piensa incluir algún ritmo de moda para contrarrestar el spot del Apra.
Cada día aumentan más los rumores del estallido de una grave crisis al interior de Alianza por el Futuro. Tras el poco apoyo de la población a través de las encuestas, la candidatura de Martha Chávez ha dividido a los seguidores de Fujimori. Augusto Alvárez Rodrich, Director de Perú 21, comentó en su editorial del domingo 26 de febrero sobre las duras perspectivas electorales del fujimorismo.
The blog Peru Politico has analyzed the the government plan of the Nationalist Party of Peru, the Great Transformation.
Lloyd Axworthy returned to Peru for the second time since he was appointed to head up the OAS mission to observe the presidential and congressional elections in April. Between Thursday and Saturday, Axworthy held meetings with leaders of major political parties and groups in civil society. The best newpaper report on Axworthy’s visit was printed in La Republica. According to La Republica, Axworthy heard many reports from candidates and individuals in civil society that there is favoritism on behalf of Lourdes Flores Nano, candidate for National Unity. One of the people Axworthy met was Ollanta Humala. Ollanta Humala has said it is strange how the media gives more coverage to other candidates and said nothing about “gigantic” meetings he held in the north and western regions last week. Humala may be right–according to Transparencia, Humala is getting a smaller share of the publicity than one might expect given his standing in the polls.
It is significant that Axworthy met with Cesar Hildebrandt before leaving Lima. Hildebrandt said that Peruvian television had concentrated its attention on questioning Humala without giving him a chance to outline his program for government. He noted that he was forced out of his program on television after airing an interview with Humala. In his next visit, Axworthy may want to meet with the media to express the concerns of some of the candidates.
In what follows, we provide the two main newspaper articles that covered Axworthy’s visit to Lima, and then a number of stories from the following day (January 27) in which people react. Augusto Alvarez Rodrich suggests that the candidates who are complaining that the media is responsible for their standing in the polls should examine the lack of effectiveness of their own campaigns. Ángel Páez, on the other hand, says woe to any TV station, newspaper, magazine or radio that offers negative coverage of Loudes Flores. In effect, powerful economic interests want her to win and money talks when it comes to shaping media coverage.
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Interview with Alan Garcia
Source: La Primera, 27 de febrero del 2006
Según el último sondeo a nivel nacional efectuado por la empresa Apoyo difundido el día de ayer por el programa Cuarto Poder de América Televisión, Lourdes Flores Nano, candidata presidencial de Unidad Nacional, se mantiene firme en las preferencias electorales con 33%, aunque con una baja de 2 puntos en relación al anterior estudio, Ollanta Humala se mantiene en el segundo lugar, con una tendencia al estancamiento, con 26%, seguido muy de cerca por un Alan García en un aumento sostenido con 22%, y Valentín Paniagua sigue descendiendo con 7%. Estos porcentajes corrresponden al número de votos válidamente emitidos a 41 días de las elecciones generales.
En relación a una eventual segunda vuelta entre Lourdes Flores y Ollanta Humala, ganaría la primera con 60% contra un 40% del candidato de UPP. En el caso de un enfrentamiento entre Flores y García, la primera llegaría a la presidencia con un 62%, mientras el ex mandatario quedaría con un 38%. En una segunda vuelta entre Ollanta Humala y Alan García, ambos empatarían con 50%.
En cuanto a la composición del próximo Congreso de la República, el Apra tendría mayoría en el Congreso con 26%, seguido de Unidad Nacional a 4 puntos con 22%, tercero Unión por el Perú (UPP) con 15% y el Frente de Centro cuarto con 9%.
Consulta realizada en un universo de dos mil electores hábiles entre el 22 y 24 de febrero en 178 distritos de 113 localidades de 79 provincias de todos los departamentos del país. Margen de error: un máximo de +-2.2%. Nivel de confianza: 95%.
Comenzaron las críticas de los contrincantes electorales de Ollanta Humala. El candidato presidencial de Frente de Centro, Valentín Paniagua, manifestó que es difícil que la población acepte su plan de gobierno por la inclusión de propuestas “del rezago velasquista” que arruinaron al país; mientras que Alan García, candidato del APRA, sostuvo que las ideas de nacionalizar las actividades económicas estratégicas y volver a la figura del Estado como empresario pertenecen al pasado. Por otro lado, el candidato del Movimiento Nueva Izquierda, acusó a Humala de copiar las tesis de la izquierda.
El segundo sondeo nacional de Peruana de Opinión Pública (POP), difundido el día de ayer por el programa Panorama de Panamericana Televisión, reveló un bajón del 3% de Ollanta Humala en las preferencias electorales, mientras que el líder del APRA, Alan García, subió dos, llegando a un 16%. En el primer lugar se mantiene Lourdes Flores con 30%.
Percy Medina, secretario general de Transparencia, manifestó que desde la noche del día de hoy lunes 27 de febrero hasta el viernes 03 de marzo, los 20 candidatos a la presidencia expondrán en Televisión Nacional del Perú (TNP), sus principales propuestas de gobierno, con miras de que el electorado conozca sus medidas a aplicar en caso de llegar al poder. Este espacio televisivo, denominado “Elige tú, elige bien”, se emitirá desde las nueve hasta las once de la noche.