Horacio Cánepa Torre fue uno de los que organizó el fraude electoral del denominado “Huanucazo” de 1995 que favoreció a Alberto Fujimori, y hoy es candidato al Congreso por Unidad Nacional en Huánuco.
Author: Michael Ha
Programas dominicales Panorama de Panamericana Televisión y Reporte Semanal de Frecuencia Latina, presentaron más acusaciones de los familiares de las víctimas del “Capitán Carlos”, autor de violaciones a los DDHH cuando ocupó la jefatura de la base militar de Madre Mía. Sostienen que él y Ollanta Humala son la misma persona.
Source: Arturo Pérez. La República, 30 de enero del 2006.
Arturo Woodman, empresario y actual candidato a la primera vicepresidencia de la plancha de Lourdes Flores Nano, es investigado por la fiscal Juana Meza Peña bajo la sospecha de ser cómplice del delito de colusión en el caso de la concesión del puerto Matarani al Grupo Romero, organización para la que trabajaba mientras al mismo tiempo actuaba como funcionario público del gobierno de Alberto Fujimori.
Speaking in Puno, Ollanta Humala reiterated his proposal for the industrialization of coca production and lashed out against his aversaries who, he said, want to destroy his candidacy.
Un Lobo en Peru provides an English summary of the content of the article. Thanks!
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 29, 2006
Photo: M.A. Cameron
On Saturday, January 28, Valentín Paniagua visited three popular markets in the district of San Martín de Porres. San Martín de Porres is one of the older working class districts of Lima. A notice in La Republica had announced that the candidate for the Frente de Centro, who served as interim president of Peru in 2000-2001, would be lunching in a popular kitchen on the 13 hundred block of Avenida Perú. We arrived a little early and had the chance to speak with local party organizers. As we congregated at one of the market entrances, we were approached by Oscar Benavides, former president of the National Association of District Mayors of Peru, and the number 4 candidate on the list of aspirants to congress for the Frente de Centro. Benavides emphasized that the campaign has just begun, and he expressed optimism in spite of recent polls placing Paniagua in a distant 4th place position with only 7 percent of the popular vote. The Frente de Centro does not buy polls, offered Benavides in explanation.
Organizers pass out leaflets
Photo: M. A. Cameron
A yellow station-wagon announced over a megaphone that Paniagua would shortly arrive, calling him a candidate of “proven integrity.” When he did arrive, Paniagua was in the accompany of congressional candidate Carlos Valenzuela (numbers 11 on the Frente de Centro list), and was greeted enthusiastically with cheers of “Valentín Presidente!” Others muttered less scripted comments under their breath about how short he was, or how bald. Paniagua moved energetically through the market, seeming to take great pleasure shaking hands and stopping to talk. At one point a market woman—who earlier had told us we were at the right place when we asked whether Paniagua was coming through—offered him flowers. Because the campaign was running behind time, Paniagua did not stop to have lunch but got back in his car, a modest black Mazda, and headed off for Ate-Vitarte. After he left we spoke briefly with Meche Mendoza, also candidate for congress (number 17 on the list) on Paniagua’s slate.
Paniagua receives flowers
Photo: M. A. Cameron
The visit to the popular kitchen was not unlike the walk through Independencia with Lourdes Flores, which we described last weekend. In both cases, the candidates attempted to meet voters face-to-face. Flores had a larger entourage (she had a bus to bring in her supporters), and there was much more of a media and police presence as befits the front-runner. Indeed, there was no media presence that we could observe during Paniagua’s brief stop. There was, however, more evidence of local organization. Benavides, for example, is from Somos Peru, which undoubtedly provides an important organizational base for the Frente de Centro. The offer of flowers to the candidates, obviously not a spontaneous gesture, provided some indication of a link to the folk in the marketplace. In addition to the congressional candidates, there were other grassroots organizers around, most of whom did not look quite as uncomfortable or out of place as the middle class university students who accompanied Flores.
Meche Mendoza holds up her banner
Photo: M. A. Cameron
The contrasts and comparisons between the Flores and Paniagua campaigns help highlight the similarities and differences between the two major parties behind the respective leaders—the Popular Christian Party (PPC) and Popular Action (AP). These two parties are often seen as very similar, and indeed they have governed together. Historically, the PPC has a clear right-of-center orientation and strong links to business, while AP has never seen itself as a right-wing party and does not consider itself to be a political vehicle of the entrepreneurial elite.
To be sure, Flores offers a more moderate face than the traditional image of the PPC. Her conservatism reflects an awareness that neoliberal policies failed to create shared prosperity and, therefore, the state must assume a more vigorous social policy role to in the fight against poverty. As a result, the differences between her and Paniagua seem relatively small and this has encouraged some strategists to argue that Paniagua should have joined the National Unity slate with Flores. In an interview earlier this week, Cesar Hildebrandt suggested that a vote for Paniagua might be a “wasted vote” since the main contest would seem to be Flores vs. Humala. Paniagua insisted that he represents a distinct option and continues to have a viable candidacy: “I have the fibre to fight,” he said. Hildebrandt congratulated Paniagua for finally saying something purely electoral.
Whether Paniagua’s candidacy can catch fire with the voters is doubtful if the polls are to be believed. But since the polls are imperfect, it never hurts to talk with people in the streets. After Paniagua left the market in San Martín de Porres, we hung around for a while talking to the vendors. We heard three contrasting views. The first was enthusiastically supportive. Paniagua is a man of experience and honesty, said one. “He could be the hope.” Another launched into a very articulate and angry diatribe against politicians in general and insisted that the only way for people like her to get ahead was through hard work rather than depositing hope in politicians. “Looks at where you are,” she said, “and look at me.” The difference, she said, was “money, power, and color.” (Ouch! Field work can hurt). A third market woman said Peru needs a strong leader, “someone with balls,” she said, with apologies for the strong words. We were better off under Fujimori than Toledo. I was left with the impression that Paniagua’s visit was welcomed, and that he was greeted respectfully, but that this does not necessarily translate into votes.
While the Paniagua campaign struggles to ignite enthusiasm among the voters, there are other people working behind the scenes to stop the candidate in his tracks. Yesterday, most of the papers carried a story about an allegation by Jorge del Castillo of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA). He claimed that a major financial entity (he did not explicitly say the Romero group, but who else would it be?) had offered money to Jaime Salinas, a small candidate with less that 2 percent support in the polls, to retire his candidacy in order to help Flores. According to Del Castillo, who offered no evidence except an unnamed “credible source,” Flores had met with Salinas to discuss this, and Salinas was preparing to announce his withdrawal from the race imminently, in time to switch his candidacy to the congress. The Flores camp immediately rejected Del Castillo’s allegations and threatened to drag him before the electoral authorities.
Today, however, Víctor Andrés García Belaúnde, the president of Popular Action, said that something similar had happened to him and that he was not surprised to hear that certain members of the business community might be looking for ways of eliminating some of the smaller campaigns. He claimed to have been invited to lunch by a group of business people “close to Arturo Woodman and the Romero group.” He accepted the invitation “to see if I could get something, proposing the ideas of Valentín Paniagua, and everything turned out the other way around: it was they who wanted to convince Paniagua to pull out of the election race.” The argument was that the race between Flores and Humala was close, and this was a threat to democracy. García Belaúnde said he told them the idea was absurd and stupid, and he did not even mention it to Paniagua. For his part, Paniagua rejected the idea with the joke: “I am not good merchandise.”
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Categories
Parliamentary Impunity
Rosa Maria Palacios has written a thoughtful critical essay on parliamentary immunity. Recent reports of criminal proceedings against candidates would be less disturbing were it not for the fact that, once elected, a member of congress has immunity from prosecution. In practice, the congress rarely lifts parliamentary immunity.
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima, Estudio 297, Barometro Nacional Pre-electoral Download file
Sample: 2,003 individuals in urban and rural areas in 20 regions, 34 provinces y 133 districts. Sample represents 69.79% of the electoral population.
Source: La República, 28 de enero del 2006
Tras declarar la ONPE desierto el concurso para implementar el voto electrónico en las elecciones del 9 de abril porque ninguno de los postores subsanaron sus observaciones, la compañía Smatmatic expresó su malestar porque aseguran haber cumplido con los requisitos técnicos exigidos. Esta compañía fue fue vinculada por el programa televisivo “La Ventana Indiscreta” con el régimen del presidente venezolano Hugo Chávez.
El secretario general del Apra, Jorge del Castillo, denunció a través de RPP, que medios financieros cercanos a Lourdes Flores Nano habrían ofrecido dinero a Jaime Salinas, líder de Justicia Nacional, a cambio de que retire su candidatura. No es la primera vez que lanza este tipo de acusaciones. En enero del 2001aseguró que Fernando Olivera, candidato por el Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM), renunciaría a su postulación presidencial para favorecer a Lourdes Flores apostando “una caja de cerveza”, pero Olivera lo desmintió manteniendo su candidatura.
Categories
Contradictions among Polls
Serious doubts are being raised about the validity of polls in this election campaign. A recent poll by the Catholic University placed Lourdes Flores at 38 percent in Lima and Callao. This is a level of support significantly higher than what other polls have found. Polls have a checkered history in Peru, in part because the deep cleaveages in Peruvian society exacerbate the different results that are obtained according to who is polled, where and how they are polled, who asks the questions, how the questions are framed, and what the respondent thinks the pollster wants to hear. Nonetheless, the high level of support for Flores in Lima seems intuitive, in part because Flores seems to have become a sort of default option for many voters.
An interesting editorial by Mirko Lauer in La Republica today picks up this theme. He suggests that Flores has benefited from a migration of voters from other candidates as they falter. Her challenge is to retain these votes over the rest of the campaign.
Source: La Republica, January 27, 2006
By means of a press release, the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (National Office of Electoral Processes, or ONPE) informed the public that due to technical problems the system of electronic voting would not be implemented in the elections on April 9. Lloyd Axworthy is said to have raised the issue with President Toledo, who is keen to cooperate with the OAS electoral observation mission.
Fabiola Bazo
January 26, 2006
The Peruvian Central Bank (Banco Central de Reserva, BCR) and members of its board have been in the eye of a storm this last week. The BCR has intervened aggressively in the currency exchange market to reduce volatility. The BCR sold dollar reserves in what some analysts have called a preventive measure to stop “a sudden attack to the nuevo sol.” On January 12, Kurt Burneo, President of the National Bank and member of the Board of the BCR, argued that banks and Pension funds (AFPs) were speculating to generate fear among the general public. As a response, the BCR bought nuevos soles to avoid a currency collapse. The scale of the intervention was unprecedented.
On January 17, critics of the BCR –including the Instituto Peruano de Economía (IPE), business groups, pension funds, and banks– answered back stating that the central bank was using volatility as an excuse to intervene, generating an artificially peaceful environment for investors, when the nominal policy of the central bank is to let the currency float. Aggressive intervention by the BCR, acording to critics, indirectly benefits presidential hopeful Ollanta Humala. In this view, the BCR should have let the Peruvian currency fall, thereby demonstrating the potentially negative impact on the economy if Ollanta Humala is elected. Burneo has stated the BCR will take legal action against those who have criticized the measures taken by the central bank to maintain economic stability and reduce the electoral noise.
What is striking about this episode is the lobbying by a range of economic agents seeking to influence monetary policy and politicize the decisions of the central bank.
Carlos Tapia is a respected expert on counter-insurgency issues, and he served on the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission. In this essay he suggests that Humala’s conception of politics is informed by the logic of internal conflict. Accordingly, elections are battles, and competitors are enemies.
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 26, 2006
It would cost $3.6 million to register 250,000 Peruvians–more than all the voters in Villa El Salvador–who live in remote areas of the country and cannot vote because they do not have birth certificates. Yet the executive has not provided the small amount of money necessary for these citizens to be enfranchized. They are poor folk, far from the capital, and they simply don’t matter to Peru’s urban political elite. At the same time, the election authorities are toying with the idea of spending over 50 million soles so that half a million voters in Callao can have the luxury of voting electronically. This is yet another graphic reminder of the impact of inequality on the elections, and the indifference of the state with respect to the rural poor.
Source: La República, 26 de enero del 2006
En el segundo sondeo realizado por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP) sobre la intención de voto, la candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores, aparece con el 38% de intención de votos, mientras que Ollanta Humala con solo el 16%.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 745 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años en 31 distritos de Lima Metropolitana y Callao, con un error y nivel de confianza estimados de +3,58%, un nivel de confianza del 95% y 50-50% de heterogeneidad bajo el supuesto de muestreo aleatorio simple.
La encuesta de la Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercados y Opinión Pública (CPI) fue realizada entre el 21 y el 24 de enero en 50 provincias sobre un universo de 1,950 entrevistados.
Source: El Comercio, 26 de enero del 2006.
El Comité Ejecutivo Nacional de Perú Posible retiró de su lista para el Parlamento Andino a Gerardo Saavedra. Rafael Belaúnde aceptó la inclusión de José León y Doris Sánchez por Lima y anunció que seguirá en la campaña electoral como candidato presidencial.
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 25, 2006
Lloyd Axworthy is in Lima preparing the groundwork for an electoral observation mission of the Organization of American States (OAS). He is meeting with President Alejandro Toledo, Chancellor Oscar Maurtua, and election officials from the JNE, ONPE, and Reniec, among others. Axworthy is the former Canadian minister of foreign affairs who led a high-level mission to Peru in the aftermath of the problematic elections of 2000. His involvement as an observer of the 2006 elections has symbolic importance because of the key role that he, in conjunction with former Secretary General Cesar Gaviria and the OAS, played in contributing to the transition to democracy in 2000.
The choice of Axworthy to head the mission suggests the possibility that the OAS, now under the leadership of Secretary General José Miguel Insulza, will create an election observation process that that, in addition to ensuring that votes are counted accurately, focuses attention on the agenda for reinforcing democracy that came out of the involvement of the international community in the 2000 election. Unlike in 2000, when the elections failed to meet internationally accepted standards of freedom and fairness, however, the elections this year are likely to be beset by more technical problems. This will be the first election in which members of the armed forces can vote, for example, and the participation of soldiers will create logistical issues. There is also a proposal for electronic voting in Callao, which Cecilia Valenzuela has sharply criticized in the television program Ventana Indiscreta. Finally, 250,000 voters are disenfranchized because they do not have birth certificates and over a million more voters, many of them elderly, cannot vote because they do not have a National Identity Document. The total size of the electorate is 16.5 million.
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 25, 2006
Arturo Woodman, vice presidential candidate for Unidad Nacional (UN), has openly disagreed with UN presidential candidate Lourdes Flores Nano concerning Chilean investments in Peruvian ports. While Flores has opposed Chilean involvement, Woodman says he is open to capital from any source. Woodman’s remarks not only undercut Flores Nano, they also reopen questions about Woodman’s own involvement in the ports.
Jorge Paredes Romero provides superb background information on Arturo Woodman and his role in the privatization of the Matarani port in his commentary “Nuestra Sociedad Convulsionada.”
Among other things, Paredes Romero alludes to the Final Report of the Investigative Commission on Economic and Financial Crimes Committed between 1990-2001, released in June 2002, which found indications of influence trafficking in the privatization of the port of Matarani:
“These indications are based on meetings held between Mr. Dionisio Romero and Vladimiro Montesinos, which occurred on as many as five occasions according to his own statement, although there are only two videos of them. At least three of these meetings in 1998 and 1999 coincided temporally with the granting of Matarani. Moreover, according to Romero’s own statement, it is known that the meetings were propitiated by Engineer Arturo Woodman, member of the Board of Maritime Transports (S.A.), a firm of the Romero Group, who was involved in numerous offices in the previous government, especially CEPRI Tierras and CEPRI Azucareras. The privatization was conducted by Commander José Dellepiani Maza, who was placed in the presidency of ENAPU after Vladimiro Montesinos decided to replace him in the Audit Commission of the Judiciary.”
As we have reported before, insiders in Unidad Nacional now recognize that it was an error to appoint Woodman. The latest dispute only deepens this impression.
En el segundo sondeo realizado por el Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP) sobre la intención de voto, la candidata de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores, aparece con el 38% de intención de votos, mientras que Ollanta Humala con solo el 16%.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 745 hombres y mujeres entre 18 y 70 años en 31 distritos de Lima Metropolitana y Callao, con un error y nivel de confianza estimados de +3,58%, un nivel de confianza del 95% y 50-50% de heterogeneidad bajo el supuesto de muestreo aleatorio simple.
Conecta Asociados SAC, Informe Opinión Enero 2006. Survey focuses on perceptions on nationalism, democracy and expectations of political change.
Sample: 1,394 individuals in Metropolitan Lima, Callao and 12 cities Download file
En conferencia de prensa, la candidata presidencial de Unidad Nacional, Lourdes Flores Nano, informó que solo cuatro de sus actuales legisladores buscarán su reelección en las próximas elecciones: Rosa Florián, Emma Vargas, Fabiola Morales e Hildebrando Tapia. El legislador Rafael Rey Rey encabezará la lista de candidatos al Parlamento Andino. Rafael Rey no va a la reelección y encabezará lista al Parlamento Andino
En declaraciones al diario Correo y, tras manifestar su indignación por la agresión que sufriera la semana pasada por militantes y simpatizantes del Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP) en un mercado de Ate-Vitarte, la candidata presidencial de la alianza Concertación Descentralista (CD), Susana Villarán, retó públicamente a su lider Ollanta Humala a un debate de plan de gobierno tras calificarlo de “machista”.
En su primer análisis en el diario La República, Carmen Rosa Balbi comentó sobre las elecciones y los grupos de poder económico; en esta segunda parte discute las Elecciones y Constitución como Contrato Social.
Source: El Comercio, 25 de enero del 2006
Se agudiza la crisis al interior del Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP). En declaraciones a la radioemisora CPN, los militantes de las bases provinciales lanzaron hoy un ultimátum a Ollanta Humala para que recomponga la lista de candidatos al Congreso y tome “en cuenta a los miembros de su partido”. El plazo otorgado su líder y candidato a la presidencia vence mañana miércoles 25, día en el que se radicalizarán las acciones de protesta como las tomas de locales y movilizaciones a nivel nacional y de no llegar a un acuerdo, inscribirán una lista propia ante el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE).
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 24, 2006
Martha Chávez, presidential candidate for Alianza por el Futuro, met this morning with the Association of the Foreign Press in Peru (Asociación de Prensa Extranjera en el Perú). Following a brief exposition, she held a conversation with about a dozen journalists in which she spoke about her candidacy, the role of Alberto Fujimori in the campaign, and the challenges facing any future government she might lead.
Source: La República, 24 de enero del 2006. Por Carolina Martín.
Tras anexar el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones en su página web las primeras hojas de vida de las planchas presidenciales de seis agrupaciones políticas: Avanza País, Resurgimiento Peruano, Restauración Nacional, el Partido Socialista, el APRA y el Partido Renacimiento Andino; ha quedado demostrado que los datos que consignan las siete páginas que todo candidato debe presentar al JNE cuando se inscribe como tal, son insuficientes para formar en el elector un completo juico sobre el candidato a la presidencia de la república.
Tras la denuncia periodística emitida el día domingo 21 pasado por el programa “Panorama” sobre su supuesta participación en la violación de derechos humanos como jefe de una patrulla militar en la base militar de Madre Mía, en San Martín, nuevamente el candidato a presidencia Ollanta Humala denunció que se ha desatado otra campaña de desprestigio en su contra, asegurando que “es parte de la campaña que algunos medios” han iniciado contra su candidatura y que está dispuesto a someterse a cualquier investigación para que se compruebe que no participó en la ejecución de pobladores de la zona en 1992 bajo el seudónimo del “Capitán Carlos”.
For a good analysis and more background information on Ollanta Humala, see http://wolfylima.blogspot.com/ and scroll down to January 18, Ollanta Humala – The Big Unknown.
So poor is the image of congress that two of the front-running candidates have said they would not hesitate to dissolve the congress and call new congressional elections in the event that their programs were rejected due to a minority situation. This would be done democratically, and according to the constitution, which stipulates (article 134) that the executive has the power to dissolve congress after two motions of censure against the cabinet.
According to a report aired on the television program Panorama, Ollanta Humala was a military officer in charge of a base in Madre Mía, located between the departments of San Martín and Tingo María, in 1992 when human rights crimes were committed against the local population.
UPDATE: In Hoy con Hildebrandt on January 24, Humala denied any involvement in human rights abuses. Asked whether he was Capitan “Carlos,” he told Hildebrandt to speak with the Ministry of Defense.
It now appears the entire plot to assassinate the secretary general of the Union Por el Peru was a total farse. The supposed assassin has a history of offering information in exchange for money. This would explain why Yorges was released by the police so quickly, and his giddy attitude throughout the entire episode.
La Primera has carried a couple of stories on the involvement of Carlos Torres Caro, candidate for vice president in the Humala slate, in the cover-up of election fraud in 1995, known as the Huanucazo. At the time, Torres Caro was working for the Public Ministry, which was run by Blanca Nelida Colan. She was a key ally of Vladimiro Montesinos, the de facto head of the National Intelligence Service. Torres Caro has threatened La Primera with a lawsuit.
[UPDATE: In Hoy con Hildebrandt on January 24, Humala denied that Torres Caro was in any way involved in the Huanucazo. We can find no independent support for the allegation either on the Internet or from with people involved. If anyone has information, we welcome it. –M.A.C. 25.1.06]
Today La Republica reports that Torres Caro offered his legal advice to Genaro Delgado Parker when the mediate magnate was in trouble with the law due to incriminating evidence found on Vladivideos (videos from the archive of the National Intelligence Service, taped by Vladimiro Montesinos). The problem is that at the time Torres Caro was still working for the Public Ministry.
The implication of this is that Torres Caro was a member of the judicial mafia that controlled the Public Ministry under Fujimori and he used his post to peddle influence even after Fujimori and Montesinos fell from power.
Another polls places Lourdes Flores Nano ahead with 30 percent of the vote, followed by Ollanta Humala with 25 percent. The highest negative ratings are for Alan Garcia (32 percent), followed by Humala (28 percent) and Fernando Olivera (16 percent). Asked who they trust, another way of getting at voter intentions, voters chose Flores (30 percent), Humala (18 percent), Paniagua (11 percent) and Garcia (10 percent).
Según un sondeo a nivel nacional de Peruana de Opinión Pública (POP), la líder de Unidad Nacional (UN), Lourdes Flores Nano, recuperó terreno en las preferencias y se ubicó nuevamente en el primer lugar con un 30% de la intención de voto, seguida de Ollanta Humala con un 25%.
Alan García Pérez, del partido aprista, encabeza el llamado “antivoto” con el 32%, seguido por Humala con el 28% y Fernando Olivera con el 16%; mientras que entre los personajes con mayor confianza de la población, Flores Nano ocupa nuevamente el primer lugar con el 30%, Humala con el 18%, Valentín Paniagua con el 11% y García con el 10%.
There are approximately 7 million young voters (between 18 and 35) in this election, and most of them have not yet decided how they will vote. Youth represent about 42 percent of the electorate, but many young voters appear to be turned off politics. Martin Tanaka notes that youth spontaneously participated in the struggle against Fujimori at the end of the 1990s but found no organization to sustain their involvement.
Un informe especial del diario La República sobre los jóvenes indecisos políticos en el país arrojó interesantes conclusiones: A menos de tres meses de las elecciones generales, casi 7 millones de peruanos entre los 18 y 35 años aún no definen su candidato y representan el 42,1% de votantes, casi la mitad. Frustrados, sienten que ningún candidato los representa y que los partidos políticos no se preocupan por ellos, desmotivándolos por participar en la política a pesar de que su participación será decisiva para definir los próximos comicios del 6 de abril .
La República, 23 de enero del 2006. Fotos: Arturo Pérez
En una muestra de tolerancia y respeto a la diversidad sexual, partidos de izquierda apuestan por el cambio para que los sectores marginados por su opción sexual tengan opción de representatividad en el Congreso. Por el Frente Amplio de Izquierda postula Belissa Andía y por el Partido Socialista se presenta Susel Paredes. Ambas cuentan con amplio respaldo en sus respectivos partidos: Belissa Andía (Manuel Andía en su DNI), es apoyada por el Comité de Izquierda por la Diversidad Sexual dentro del Frente Amplio, y Susel Paredes obtuvo el quinto lugar en las elecciones internas del Partido Socialista y podría llevar ese número en la lista de candidatos.
Buscando la renovación de la clase política, Alan García, candidato por el Partido Aprista, apuesta dentro de su plan de gobierno por los electores menores de 30 años proponiendo la creación de lo que denominó la Ley del Concejal Joven, que exige a los partidos que presenten el 25% de sus listas de concejales con personas menores de 20 años. Una astuta propuesta política del líder del APRA, puesto que los jóvenes representan el 37% del universo electoral del país.
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 21, 2006
A note in La República provided advance notice of a walk with Lourdes Flores through the working class district of Independencia, in the northern cone of Lima. We grabbed a cab and arrived at the meeting place a few minutes before the walk was to begin at 2:45 pm. At first, we could see no sign of any campaign activity as we strolled along Avenida Tupac Amaru until, at last, we spotted a couple of late model SUVs—the shiniest cars on the street. They proved to be the advance crew.
We loitered for a while, chatting with journalists and members of Flores’ entourage while waiting for the presidential candidate. Finally, a campaign bus arrived carrying a group of supporters, followed by a large silver SUV. We formed a caravan and headed toward the hills, arriving at the end of a paved street in the neighborhood Tupac Amaru Payet. Flores emerged from her car and was immediately surrounded by enthusiastic supporters, including congressional candidates Lourdes Alcorta, Pepe Kleinberg, and Gaby Pérez del Solar.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Someone offered a glass of chicha, which Flores accepted with pleasure. From the sidelines, a couple of women from the barrio called for Flores to speak. One shouted “Lourdes, don’t forget the poor.” But the candidate did not stop to speak at that point. The plan was to move on foot along dirt paths carved by usage around a hillside densely covered by ramshackle and precarious houses, some made of matt, some wood, and the more solid ones of brick. Some of Flores’ entourage were unimpressed. One referred pejoratively to the neighborhood as “un asiento bien telaraña” (in local slang, a very poor settlement).
Photo: M.A. Cameron
As the entourage moved through the neighborhood, the crowd swelled. Some were curious, others genuinely supportive. One onlooker said she supported the candidate of Unión Nacional because she is a woman. Why was that important? “Women think better than men” she said, they take care of the household economy. “Men work hard, but they don’t distribute.” Another bystander expressed similar views. “A woman should have the opportunity,” she said. “There have been so many men elected and they have done nothing. Women are more intuitive in many ways.” She particularly liked Flores because of her honesty. An elderly woman approached us to say she hoped Flores would improve education, particularly civic education and vocational training.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
When we emerged from the narrow dirt paths of the barrio back onto paved streets, Flores stopped to speak with the press. The crowd was hushed as the candidate took questions from the media. At one point a water balloon was tossed into the crowd, either by someone seeking to make a point or just for amusement.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
What is Missing in this Picture?
Lourdes Flores, unlike Valentin Paniagua, gives the impression of wanting the presidency. She has a reputation for being a good listener, and her public statements are coherent and intelligent. Moreover, we were able to observe enough spontaneous expressions of support from onlookers to believe that her support base outside the affluent districts of Lima is real, especially among women. Consistent with her low negative ratings, we saw no clear expressions of hostility from the people in Tupac Amaru Payet.
Yet Flores and her supporters looked more than a little out of place in this working class, mestizo, barrio. One member of Flores’ entourage said she emerged from a similar walk so covered in dust that she had to take off her clothes in her garden before entering her house.
How deep is the connection between Flores and her potential supporters? The candidate was not met by local organizing committees or leaders, nor given a stage on which to speak directly to the local folk. If there were local organizing committees, or grassroots leaders involved, they were given no prominence. In the absence of such connections with the community, Tupac Amaru Payet seemed to serve as a stage for a public appearance designed to reinforce Flores’ image in the media as someone concerned with the plight of the poor. The inauthenticity of the event was made all the more dramatic by the contrast between the white, middle class supporters of UN, who were bused into the barrio, and the poor, cholo inhabitants of Tupac Amaru Payet who seemed not to be linked to the candidate in an organized way.
Photo: M.A. Cameron
Maxwell A. Cameron
January 21, 2006
A few days ago I watched an interview with Alan Garcia on the television program Hoy with Cesar Hildebrandt and I could not avoid the feeling that the candidate of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance should not be underestimated. Garcia may have presided over one of the most disastrous governments in recent memory, and he provokes strongly negative reactions in much of the electorate, but he is doing an impressive job of painting himself as the alternative to the right-wing policies represented by Lourdes Flores, on the one hand, and the chaos and violence that seem to be close to the surface of the forces behind Ollanta Humala, on the other.
Garcia presents himself as the candidate of the center, the politician closest to the median voter, and the elder statesman of Peruvian poltiics. He also leads the only well-organized and grassroots-financed political party in the country, and has a clear program of government. Garcia reminded Hildebrandt that he won close to 50 percent of the vote in the second round election in 2001, and he fully expects to be able to tap into the same electorate in this campaign.
Later, talking about the election with a friend, I asked how he would vote: “el voto es secreto, compañero” he said–the ballot is secret, compañero. Compañero is the phrase APRA supporters use among themselves, so the subtext was: I’m voting for Alan and that is a secret among those of us who support APRA. How many more APRA voters out there refuse to reveal their support for Garcia to suvery researchers? In the following article, Juan Carlos Tafur argues that the other candidates should not make the error of counting Garcia out.
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Future of Peru Posible in Doubt
On Monday, January 23, leaders of Perú Posible will gather to discuss the crisis within their party that has arisen from the decision of Rafael Belaúnde to purge the congressional list of all undesirable candidates. Belaúnde insists that he will not be a complice of such elements, and warns that he will step down from the leadership of PP unless he gets his way. Electoral authorities warn that this may result in the elimination of the entire PP slate.
In recent days, the local media have shown an almost morbid interest in exposing the mediocrity and corruption within the ranks of the governing party. It has been alleged that there are members who own hotels of ill-repute, committed bigamy, abused minors, appointed family members to public offices, and trafficked in influence.
Insiders close to Lourdes Flores Nano privately admit that it was a mistake to appoint Arturo Woodman as vice presidential candidate for Union Nacional.
Now new questions are being asked about Woodman. In 2002 he was narrowly elected mayor of Santa Maria, a tiny resort district of Lima, by a margin of just 20 votes (Woodman won 446 votes and his closest competitor won 426). His victory was overturned by electoral authorities after it turned out that 288 persons had changed their residence just prior to the election. Most of the migratory votes went to Woodman. After the suspicious votes were annulled, the victor was declared to be another candidate.
The identity of the “assassin” who offered to murder José Vega in order to open the way for Dante Yorges to run for a seat in congress is now known. He is Marco Antonio Muñoz Vásquez (aka Negro Toño), and he has worked in the security detail of various candidates in the past, including Alejandro Toledo and Máximo San Roman.
After offering to kill Vega, Muñoz negotiated with two television stations to sell the compromising videotape. In recent years, the surreptitious taping or videotaping of illicit activities and the sale of such material to the media has become widespread. The most famous case is the Vladivideo which brought down the Fujimori government in 2000. Muñoz was the bodyguard of Germán Barrera (El Patriota) during the negotiations over the release of the Vladivideo.
While Vegas life was apparently never in real danger, there remains little doubt that Yorges thought he was dealing with a hired hit man. He may have been entrapped, but fall into the trap he did.
At this point is is unclear whether Muñoz was motivated only by the desire to acquire compromising material that could be used to negotiate with the media, or whether any of Humala’s political adversaries had a hand in the matter. A palpable nausia can be sensed in most of the commentaries on this affair.
In a clear attempt to avoid being seen as the candidate of the right, in recent days Lourdes Flores Nano has had some tough words for Peru’s business leaders. In response, Garcia has asked for Flores Nano to remove Arturo Woodman from her slate. Flores refuses.