Note: Within an hour of this post, the elections committee broke the model! Good job, EC! (more t-tests, next time, I promise)
I did a really simple logarithmic fit to the data the elections committee has been releasing.
I’m going to go ahead and predict turnout this year will be 3781. Only 58% of last years ~6500.
Note: I’d do some confidence intervals, but seriously, I just finished a STAT 306 assignment, and I’m tired of t-tests.
What’s different this year from last? This editor notes one big difference is the lack of a student-wide email, highly visible poll-booths, and highly visible campaigns. Post your thoughts in the comments thread.
10 replies on “Insiders Predicts Turnout Down 42%”
What have you? Why is turnout down this year?
Apparently, within an hour of me posting this, the EC met my predicted target. I guess I kind of ignored that votes come in clusters around noon, and the last datum I had was at 9:30am. Hilarity. Total model fail.
GJ on the EC on releasing the data though!
http://twitter.com/AMSElections/statuses/8341249136
This is adorable, so freakin’ adorable. p value FAIL.
So, what is quorum? Has it/will it be reached?
There was a massive spike in voting in the last hours of last year’s voting period.
5191.
Also, saved votes will be submitted at 4pm. Expect another spike.
MISUSE OF STATISTICS
True fact. I need to read more 306.
Proof that any model is only as good as the assumptions on which it is built.
Or as us CS-types are fond of saying: “Garbage in, Garbage out”…
haha good try though