Peru Election 2006

Source: La República, 04 de mayo del 2006
La ONPE anunció oficialmente que Ollanta Humala y Alan García disputarán la segunda vuelta el 4 de junio.

Read the rest of this entry »

May 1st: Alan García retains an advantage of 65,012 votes over Lourdes Flores with 99.95 percent of the ballots counted. Flores refuses to concede until every vote is counted. This attitude is sharply criticized by Juan Carlos Tafur in his editorial today. He says that under the guidance of Xavier Barron, Flores has turned her defeat into a “pathetic comedy.”
May 2nd: Barron is presenting a final appeal to the JNE this morning. It constitutes the last item for the JNE to deal with prior to call a date for the second round. The JNE has reviewed all appeals and returned documentation to ONPE. ONPE will provide the election results with all votes counted this evening. Lourdes Flores will publicly thank her campaign supporters on Wednesday, May 3. Raul Castro, elected congress person for Unidad Nacional, has called Antero Flores-Araoz‘s public comments with regard to the campaign as “no fraternal”.

Read the rest of this entry »

With 99.97 percent of the votes counted:
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.627% – 3,757,686 votes
Alan García (Apra) 24.320% – 2,984,796 votes
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.802% – 2,920,265 votes
Gap between García and Flores: 63,606 votes.
With 71 percent of the congressional vote counted, only 5 parties will pass the electoral threshold and take seats in the legislature: UPP, APRA, UN, AF, FC.

Read the rest of this entry »

Universe: 639 interviews in 39 districts in Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Margin of error: ± 3,95%. Download file
The sample is small and was taken only in Lima, however, there are some interesting findings:
Why do you think Ollanta Humala won the first round?
35.2% Because he is new and against the system with 43.3% of respondents from sector C and 41.5% of the males.
18.7% Because he is a nationalist, with 35.1% of respondents from sector E.
For what reason Alan Garcia would pass to the second round?
20.6% Because he has an organized party with 34.4% from sector A.
For what reason Lourdes Flores may not pass to the second round?
40% Because she is the candidate of the rich. 43.1% of the males, 46.3% of sector D and 43.2% of sector E.
Who was the big winner on April 9th?
37.9% Ollanta Humala and 51.4% from sector E.
Do you believe poll results influence voters?
71.8% responded yes
94.4% of the respondents want a presidential debate and 39.7% want Cesar Hildebrant to be the moderator.

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: Observa, 28 de abril del 2006
Observa, Observatorio de la Vigilancia Social, es una iniciativa de un grupo de organizaciones que buscan articular, difundir y promover las experiencias de vigilancia social y una cultura de transparencia en la gestión pública.

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La Republica, April 25, 2006
DATUM Internacional Survey: Download file
Update, April 26.
We have added to this post an interview with Manuel Torrado, Datum’s Director. He warns that the race is still close and that the gap between Garcia and Humala is not great enough to presume that Garcia would win a second round victory. If we take the total votes (not valid votes), the 43 to 37 percent difference is (barely) within the margin of error. That is, if Garcia is really at 40 and Humala is also at 40 percent (which this poll cannot rule out), then we have a tie. What is more, 20 percent of the voters could still go either way. Torrado confirms that the race is largely between north and south, with Garcia currently leading in Lima.
Preliminary Comments
Maxwell A. Cameron, April 25, 2006
The first poll conducted following the April 9 presidential election has been released. The survey firm DATUM interviewed 1,126 respondents. The findings are within a margin of error: + or – 3 percent 95 percent of the time, and the sample represents 79.9 percent of the electoral population. Interviews were conducted in urban and rural areas in: Lima, Callao, Cusco, Áncash, Loreto, Piura, Puno, Arequipa, Junín, Ayacucho, La Libertad y Lambayeque.
The DATUM poll shows Garcia in the lead with 43 percent of the vote and Humala trailing with 37 percent. 17 percent would cast blank or spoiled ballots, and 3 percent are undecided. In terms of valid votes (omitting the undecided or those casting spoiled or blank ballots), Garcia has 54 percent to 46 percent for Humala.
Regarding the 17 percent who say they will cast a blank or spoiled ballot, if the margin starts to look too close for comfort some may alter their intention and make a decision. My guess is that Garcia rather than Humala would benefit, but that is just a hunch based on the presumption that anti-Aprismo animates the spoiled ballots crowd, but anti-Humalismo may trump this in the end. If we look at the breakdown of the spoiled/blank vote by income group, it decreases steadily as you move from A/B (29 percent) to C (19 percent) to D (16 percent) and E (14 percent). There is more unhappiness about the choice between candidates among the AB voters than among the D or E voters.
According to the data presented by DATUM, it would appear that much of the vote for Flores has begun to migrate to Garcia. Consider the vote breakdown by gender. Whereas Humala would have received 30 percent of the female vote in a race against Flores, he gets 34 percent against Garcia. In other words, 4 percent of the female vote has moved from Flores to Humala. However, Garcia has 44 percent of the female vote, fully 10 points more than Humala.
In terms of age distribution, the biggest gap between Humala and Garcia is those in the 26 to 35 year range. Whereas 35 percent of them support Humala, 45 percent of them support Garcia. Humala may be picking up some of Flores’ young voters.
Garcia now has 57 percent of the voters in the urban A/B sectors, while Humala has 12 percent. Humala’s 12 percent is up from the 9 percent he would have picked up in a race against Flores. Garcia is also well ahead of Humala in the C stratum: he has 52 percent to Humala’s 25 percent. However, in the D and E groups (by far the most numerous), the two candidates are virtually tied at 40 or 41 percent in each.
We have been arguing that this second round will be largely a fight between the north and the south, with Lima up for grabs. At this point, Garcia has 49 percent in Lima, to Humala’s 32 percent. Humala is going to have to make a major push to win votes in Lima if he is to have a chance of winning the election.
In the south and central regions, Humala dominates with over 54 and 53 percent respectively. Garcia has a 56 percent lead in the north. The west is leaning toward Humala with 38 percent to Garcia’s 33 percent. In general, Humala does better in the rural areas.
The DATUM poll suggests that levels of approval of both Humala and Garcia are low. For that matter, the level of approval of all three of the front-running candidates is low. My problem with this question is that I have no idea what it means. What does it mean to say “I disapprove” in answer to the question “Do you approve of the public efforts [the Spanish phrase is “labor publica”] that are being carried out by…?” The problematic wording raises larger issues concerning polls.
This poll does not predict who will win the next round of the election. It provides a snapshot of current voter preferences. Since it was conducted before the official first round results were announced it may reflect the fact that there are still many voters who have not really begun to process their new choice.
Also, campaigns matter. Here I have to disagree with colleagues who say that neither polls nor debates influence the process. The impact of polls is probably over-stated, but polls matter to strategic voters. Debates can have a huge impact. In general, campaigns matter and this one has just begun.
If Humala runs a great campaign and wins the runoff, that does not necessarily mean this poll was wrong. It may mean that the initial distribution of voter intentions changed in the course of the campaign. By the same token, the polls did not miss the fact that Garcia was holding steady through most of the first round and that Flores was in decline. The best polls showed the two candidates very close which, as it happened, was accurate. The polls did generally understate support for APRA. This is not necessarily because the polls are bad; it may be because there is a “hidden vote” for APRA.
The record of DATUM is not terrific, but nor is it terrible. On April 5, 2006, they placed Garcia and Flores in a tie with 24 percent, and gave Humala 26 percent. Obviously, they were off (by twice their 2 percent margin of error) with respect to Humala but they did place Humala as the front-runner and reported a tie between Garcia and Flores. APOYO was marginally better (giving Humala 27 percent). During the blackout period, CPI circulated a poll that had Flores in the lead.
In short, polls have biases and some polls have more biases than others. Leaving aside the issue of whether people answer pollsters truthfully, there are potentially important sample biases that affect most polls in Peru. It is costly to reach into the countryside and measure the support of candidates like Humala who may be strongest in rural areas. The lesson? Polls should be treated with caution and interpreted carefully.

Read the rest of this entry »

Maxwell A. Cameron
April 22, 2006
Now that we know for sure that Alan Garcia will be in the second round, I confess to feeling no surprise. I know, nobody likes a braggart, but I predicted the April 9 election with a level of accuracy equal or better than all the polls, the exit polls, and even the quick counts.
Here is what happened. The night before the election, I was lounging with a group of friends and drinking mineral water (in deference to the local dry law at election time). We decided to take bets on who could predict the outcome. The winner would buy a round of mineral water. I predicted Ollanta Humala would get 30 percent, Alan Garcia 25 percent, and Lourdes Flores 24 percent. With 96 percent of the votes counted, Humala stands at 30.8 percent, Garcia at 24.3 percent, and Flores at 23.6 percent.
My secret formula? There were two key sources of intelligence: the results of the 2001 election and the last good poll. In 2001 Alejandro Toledo won 36.5 percent, Garcia won 25.8 percent, and Flores won 24.3 percent. The last APOYO poll, released on April 8, gave Humala 27 percent, and placed Flores and Garcia in a tie with 23 percent each. I assumed that—at least for the candidates who had run previously—history would repeat itself. There would be a tight race between Garcia and Flores, similar to 2001. Humala would not do as well as Toledo, and 30 percent seemed like a nice round number.
Two things made me think Garcia would nudge out Flores: the hidden vote for his party, APRA, and party organization. APRA voters tend to be reticent with pollsters, and APRA has a superior capacity to pull and defend its votes.
Having discovered a good formula, I plan to use it to predict the presidential runoff between Humala and Garcia (which will probably be held on May 28, though it could be as late June 4). We know that in 2001 Garcia lost to Alejandro Toledo by 47 to 53 percent. We can use this as a baseline, and factor in the last good poll taken before the election.
Some observers think that Garcia can do better this time. The reasons for this view were nicely summarized in an editorial in Caretas last week (see: Caretas 1920, April 13, 2006, p. 17).
First, Humala is arguably a weaker candidate than Toledo was in 2001. Toledo got a lot of credit for leading the opposition to the Fujimori regime. He won 36.5 percent in the first round (and his support was fairly solid across the country).
Second, the winner in the first round often faces an “anyone but…” campaign in the second. Alberto Fujimori placed second in the first round in 1990, and beat Mario Vargas Llosa in the runoff.
Whereas Flores supporters had no trouble supporting Toledo in a second round in 2001, they are unlikely to vote for Humala. Flores supporters mobbed Humala when he tried to enter his polling station in the Ricardo Palma University. They held him hostage for nearly an hour.
Alan Garcia is already wooing Flores with promises of co-governability. Flores can see that APRA will a pivotal party in congress, and her ranks are already looking weak. She may need an alliance with APRA—and the pork it will provide—to retain coalition discipline.
Third, local business and foreign investors have already realized that their interests lie with Garcia (See: Anuncia primer ministro Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, desde Washington: “García haría mejor gobierno esta vez”, Expreso, April 22, 2006). APRA would probably sign the Free Trade Agreement with the United States, arguing that it is necessary to promote exports from the highlands and the coastal areas where APRA seeks inroads.
Finally, Garcia wants victory so badly he can taste it. He is a brilliant campaigner, and this is his last chance to do something great for APRA and Peru.
Other observers caution that Humala enjoys the many advantages that accrue to the “outsider” in Peruvian elections.
First, he does not have a record that can be used against him and will attack Alan Garcia for his performance in government in 1985-1990.
Second, as the candidate of the “anti-establishment,” Humala can paint Garcia as a traditional politician, a creature of the past.
Third, he can alter his image more easily and may be able to lower his negative ratings with smart strategies.
Both candidates will go after one another’s core constituencies. It is symbolically significant that Garcia has begun the campaign for the second round in Puno, and has proposed a debate with Humala in Puno or Cusco. Humala has promised to conquer the north, taking the nationalist message into Aprista territory.
The real battleground, however, will be Lima (the swing voters, between north and south). Neither candidate did that well in Lima in the first round. This is where the Flores’ voters were concentrated. Now Lima is up for grabs.
I am not yet ready to take bets on mineral water. Before making a prediction for the second round, I recommend waiting until the last good poll, meditating on the results of 2001, and then making an educated guess.
See also: “How to Predict the Peruvian Election” Comment is free… The Guardian

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.84%
Alan García (Apra) 24.35%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.56%
Gap between García and Flores: 932,434 votes.
See also:
Peru Election: Foggy Friday
Peru Election: Garcia recuperating

Read the rest of this entry »

The Board of the Association of Marketing Research Firms of Peru (APEIM) has responded to criticisms of the conduct of public opinion polling in this election. They argue that the polls correctly predicted the results of the election and the key trends before election day. In addition, they have listed a series of baseless criticisms directed against the use of public opinion polling in Peru that have been reported in the media.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.67%
Alan García (Apra) 24.30%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.71%
Gap between García and Flores: 67,649 votes (0.59%).

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La República, 19 de abril del 2006

Read the rest of this entry »

Segundo informe de la jornada electoral y estimaciones de resultados producto del conteo rápido efectuado a nivel nacional: Download file
Nota de Prensa: Download file

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.857%
Alan García (Apra) 24.325%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.586%
Blank votes 11.998%
Gap between García and Flores: 83,818 votes.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.87%
Alan García (Apra) 24.34%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.55%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.79%.
Coverage by other fellow bloggers: Peru Election: two more weeks

The president of the National Election Board, Enrique Mendoza, following recommendations made by the OAS, has called attention to the diffusion of public opinion polls in the week prior to elections. The law forbids the distribution of polls in that period, but polls are still conducted and circulate freely on the Internet. Fernando Tuesta, former head of ONPE and now a survey researcher with the Catholic University, says there is no way to prevent polls from circulating outside of Peru.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.84%
Alan García (Apra) 24.35%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.56%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.79% (about 89,396 votes).

Read the rest of this entry »

Gap between García and Flores: 0.852%
Ollanta Humala (UPP) 30.90%
Alan García (Apra) 24.38%
Lourdes Flores (UN) 23.53%
Gap between García and Flores: 0.85% (about 95,800 votes).
According to Magdalena Chu, chief of ONPE, 100 percent of the votes abroad should be available and computed within the next two days. After that, the Special Election Boards and the National Election Board will have to resolve all outstanding issues. The final official result may not be known until the end of the month. The second round will probably be held on the last Sunday of May or first Sunday of June.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala 30.93%
Alan Garcia 24.42%
Lourdes Flores 23.42%
Peru Election: Focus on expatriate voters

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006
Note: at the time of this posting ONPE published results for Lima at 88.07 percent. Although La Republica states that the data on which this table is based are results at 100 percent, we do not believe this can be right for two reasons. First, there are voting booths in Lima where the results have been challenged and it will be days before these results are known. Second, votes abroad are added to the results for Lima. Hence, final results for Lima have not been published.
Nevertheless, this table shows how the spatial distribution of the vote for UPP, UN and ARPA maps onto the class structure of the city. UN is strongest in the affluent districts of Lima, UPP in the shantytowns. UN won strong majorities in the wealthier parts of Lima. Flores captured 65 percent of the vote in Miraflores, 71 percent in San Isidro, the two richest districts. UN also won majorities in solid middle class districts like San Borja (63 percent), Jesús María (53 percent), Lince (51 percent), and Pueblo Libre (55 percent). She also did impressively–at least in historical comparative terms, for a right-wing candidate–in San Juan de Miraflores (31 percent), and Villa María del Triunfo (28 percent).
UPP won pluralities in the poorest districts. Humala captured 31 percent in San Juan de Lurigancho, 30 percent in Independencia, 29 percent in Villa El Salvador and in Comas. He also did well in Ate (31 percent), El Agustino (31 percent), Lurigancho (28 percent), Pachacámac (29 percent). APRA did better than UPP in established working class and middle class districts, but nowhere did it win a plurality (though it might barely edge out Flores in Callao).

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La República, 13 de abril del 2006

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala 31%
Alan Garcia 24.43%
Lourdes Flores 23.32%

Votes from Asia at 52.14%
Lourdes Flores 61.57%
Alan Garcia 8.57%
Ollanta Humala 6.97%
Votes from Oceania at 63.63%
Lourdes Flores 72.72%
Ollanta Humala 10.07%
Alan Garcia 6.52%
Fellow bloggers coverage:
El Banco Central
El exilio vota distinto
Peru Election: Race To The Finish Line
Peru’s First Round Elections

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala 30.88%
Alan García 24.57%
Lourdes Flores 23.44%

NOTE: ONPE’s website is providing more up-to-date information
Peru Election: Race To The Finish Line
Voto fuera (2)

Read the rest of this entry »

Maxwell A. Cameron
April 11, 2006
Consider the absolute numbers at 84 percent of the vote counted:
UPP 3,284,730
APRA 2,624,740
UN 2,514,347
The gap between APRA and UN is 110,393 votes
According to ONPE, 9,332 votes abroad have been counted. The same source says 94.94 percent of the vote abroad is still left to be counted. That suggests the total vote abroad will be around 186,000. So far, 62 percent of the voters outside of Peru have voted for Flores. Assuming the rest of the vote breaks the way the first 5 percent has, we can calculate that Flores will get about 115,000 votes from abroad. This is more than the 110,000 gap that now separates Garcia and Flores.
Source: ONPE
Here is another exercise. If we assume (to be generous) Lourdes Flores gets 65 percent of the vote abroad, and Garcia gets 9 or 10 percent, and then add this to the results at 84 percent of the total counted, here is what we get:
Garcia 2,642,740
Flores 2,634,347
The difference is less than 10,000 votes.
The vote abroad may cancel out the effect of votes still coming in from rural areas. Moreover, there are still results to come in from Lima. In effect, as Rafael notes, there are over 7,200 “actas” or forms filled out in polling booths (mesas) that have been challenged (out of a total of over 81,000). Of those, 2,200 are from Lima. While most of the ones in Lima will presumably favor Lourdes, the rest may not. Hence, the additional actas are unlikely to change the overall balance much.
UPDATE (April 14): See article (posted in extended entry) from El Peruano on April 14. It suggests that the results could vary according to the results of the 7 thousand forms that have been disputed, since the forms corresponding to voting booths in Lima tend to have larger numbers of voters in them. That is, the weight of Lima will be greater, and this is Flores’ stronghold.
Two additional insights that have come from readers’ comments. First, if we scale the vote up to 97.2 percent (the total vote minus voters abroad), the gap between the candidates is greater: about 134,000 votes. Also, my projections for Flores are based on total not valid votes. If we correct this, the votes from abroad can only close the gap by about 82,000 votes.
So, whether votes from abroad will be sufficient to reverse the current margin between Garcia and Flores is hard to say. Increasingly, I would have to say no. Fernando Tuesta is probably right. He says we will not know the final outcome until 100% of the votes are counted.
In fact, even with 100 percent of the votes counted, we still may not know. A colleague just suggested that the result could be decided in the National Election Board, just as the Gore-Bush results in 2000 were decided in the US Supreme Court. That is, the final result may depend on decisions made by the election authorities over the admissibility of results from voting booths across the country. This process could take another 10 to 12 days. Does this remind anyone of hanging chads in Florida?
Mirko Lauer cautions Lourdes Flores to be patient.
Coverage by other bloggers:
There is an excellent analysis by Rici, who has been contributing to this discussion, in a blog called Fruits & Votes run by UCSD political scientist Matt Shugart.
Alan o Lourdes?
Compás de espera
El exilio vota distinto
Flores may still make it

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala 30.24%
Alan García 24.93%
Lourdes Flores 24.03%
Fellow bloggers coverage:
Los 67 mil

Read the rest of this entry »

Ollanta Humala 29.65%
Alan Garcia 24.95%
Lourdes Flores 24.69%
Visit also:
Peru Election: The Day After
Final de fotografia, fotografia de final
Elecciones 2006: la mañana siguiente
Final de pelicula

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Transparencia announced this evening that the race for the second spot in the presidential election is too close to call. Speaking on behalf of the non-governmental organization, Pepi Patron said that the public will only know the final result when all the votes are counted and she appealed to all parties for calm and patience.
In the past, Transparencia’s results have been within 0.1 and 0.2 percent of the final result. Even with a very low margin of error, the results at 11 pm were too close for the NGO to declare who would be in the second round with Ollanta Humala.
For now, the results are:
Ollanta Humala: 29.85%
Lourdes Flores: 24.42%
Alan Garcia: 24.27%
However, this result does not provide certainty that Lourdes Flores will be in the second round. A different estimation technique, in which the various departments of Peru are weighed according to their electoral size, yields a district result:
Ollanta Humala: 30.32%
Lourdes Flores: 23.5%
Alan Garcia: 24.20%
Rafael Roncagliolo explained that Transparencia’s methodology involves inputing data until the outcome is stable. In this case, additional data will not significantly vary the result, and the margin of difference is still extremely small. In short, the quick count can only confirm two things: there will be a second round, and Ollanta Humala will be in the second round.

Ollanta Humala: 27.32%
Lourdes Flores: 26.45%
Alan Garcia: 26.05 %
Martha Chavez: 6.36%
Valentin Paniagua: 6.18%
Humberto Lay: 4.31%
Note: these percentages are not representative of the final result. Results at 80% will be more accurate.
For more details visit: http://www.elecciones2006.onpe.gob.pe/_resultados2006_/index.onpe

Ollanta Humala: 30.2.%
Lourdes Flores: 24.3%
Alan Garcia: 23.8%
Matha Chavez: 7.6%
Valentin Paniagua: 6.0%
Humberto Lay: 4.3%

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

El Comercio is posting information quite frequently at: MINUTO A MINUTO

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: El Comercio, 2 de abril del 2006
Semana decisiva
Apoyo Opinion y Mercado
“La última encuesta publicable antes de la veda informativa confirma algunas certezas pero deja abierta todavía importantes incertidumbres con respecto a las elecciones del 9 de abril. Entre las primeras, se confirma que lo más probable es que Ollanta Humala llegue en primer lugar pero sin alcanzar un triunfo en primera vuelta. En la última medición ha registrado dos puntos menos que la semana anterior, lo cual indicaría que su crecimiento se ha detenido. No obstante, es posible que vuelva a incrementarse en la medida en que el perfil de quienes se encuentran aún indecisos se parece más al de los votantes del candidato de la UPP.” Download file

Read the rest of this entry »

Compania Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinion Publica S.A.C. (CPI) conducted a national poll between March 27-31 in exclusivity for Radio Programas del Peru and Correo. Sample: 3,896 individuals in 25 departments, 112 provinces and 402 districts. Margin of error varies from +/-1.6% to +/-5.8% depending on the region. Download file
Based on valid vote:
Ollanta Humala: 31.5%
Lourdes Flores: 26.8%
Alan Garcia: 23.1%

Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima for La Republica:
Ollanta Humala: 28.6%
Lourdes Flores: 22.9%
Alan Garcia: 19.9%
“Blind vote” (vote in areas not reached by pollsters): 13%
– Results confirm growth of Humala since December 2005.
– Flores maintains strong lead in Lima with 31.3% followed by Humala with 21%.
– Humala holds the rural vote with 40.4% and Flores the urban vote with 20.9%.
Sample: 2,442 individuals from 25 regions, 58 provinces, a44 districts residing in urban and rural areas. The sample represents 87% of the electoral population. Margin of error +/- 2.02. Download file
The Race for second place between Flores and Garcia is illustrated below:

Source: La Republica, 2 de abril del 2006

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La Republica, April 1, 2006

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Survey conducted by IMA – Estudios de Marketing S.A.C. between March 27 to 29, 2006.
Sample: 630 cases in 31 districts in Lima. Margin of error: ± 3.9.%. Download file

Read the rest of this entry »

The latest poll by the Catholic University, conducted between 24 and 26 March, finds Ollanta Humala in first place with 31 percent of the valid vote, followed by Lourdes Flores with 27 percent of respondents saying they intend to vote for her, and 20 percent of the decided voters supporting Alan Garcia.
The finding largely replicates other recent polls, including the last APOYO poll, at least in the order of candidates. If the PUCP poll is right, the chances are there will be a second round and the two main contenders will be Humala and Flores. An outright first round victory by either is unlikely.
The PUCP survey also probed intentions for a second round. In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Ollanta Humala, Flores would win with 55 percent to 45 percent of the vote for Humala.
In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Alan Garcia, the margin of victory for Flores would be even greater: 59 to 41 percent.
In a runoff between Humala and Garcia, Humala would win 53 percent of the vote, and Garcia would lose with 47 percent.
A key reason for the likely success of Flores in a second round, according to this poll, is the fact that Flores provokes less negative reactions than Humala or Garcia–especially among women, youth, and people in Lima (particularly the more affluent).
51 percent of those polled said they would never vote for Humala, versus 38 percent who feel that way about Flores. 56 percent would never vote for Garcia.
It should be remembered, however, that projections about how people would vote in a second round are highly speculative and can change.
The next congress is unlikely to provide a majority for the governing party. The percent of voters who say they will vote for Unidad Nacional candidates for congress is 16.1 percent. Those who will vote for APRA candidates are 15.1 percent of the electorate. 14.1 percent of the electorate plans to vote for UPP. An impressive 9.4 percent of voters say they will vote for the Alianza para el Futuro, the Fujimorista party led by Martha Chavez.
Sample: 1,945 individuals interviewed in 86 districts in 24 urban provinces in 18 departments across the country, representing 66.5% of the electoral population. Margin of error +/-2.2%. Download file

Alan Garcia has questioned the findings of some polls and accussed pollsters to favour Lourdes Flores with their results. Bernardo Verjovski, President of the Peruvian Association of Market Research (APEIM), has informed the National Election Board (JNE) of critical errors in the implementation and measurement of polls by IDICE. IDICE is a company not affiliated with APEIM and their findings should be read with some skepticism.

Read the rest of this entry »

According to a national poll by Conecta Asociados, Ollanta Humala holds first place with 34.3 percent of the vote; Lourdes Flores is in second place with 27.7 percent of the vote; and Alan Garcia is in third place with 20.6 percent. Since the poll was conducted after controversial statements made by Humala’s parents, it would appear that they did not affect his image. Download file
Según la encuesta nacional de Conecta Asociados elaborada en exclusiva para el diario Perú.21, Ollanta Humala se mantiene en el primer lugar con el 34.3%, con una diferencia de 7 puntos de su más cercano rival, Lourdes Flores con el 27.7% y en tercer lugar, alejado 14 puntos del primero, Alan García con 20.6% de los votos válidos. En el caso de una segunda vuelta entre Humala con Flores Nano, habría un empate técnico, porque el primero obtendría el 39% y la segunda el 41%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Encuesta de IDICE del Peru SAC: Peru: Intencion de Voto a Nivel Nacional: Del 20 al 22 de Marzo 2006 Download file
Update March 28: Bernardo Verjovski, President of the Peruvian Association of Market Research (APEIM), has informed the National Election Board (JNE) of critical errors in the implementation and measurement of polls by IDICE. An investigative report by Peru 21 published today, raises questions about the methodology and funding sources of IDICE polls in the last four months.

Read the rest of this entry »

La última encuesta elaborada por la empresa Datum, revelada ayer en el programa “La ventana indiscreta” confirmó a Ollanta Humala en el primer lugar con el 31%, seguido por Lourdes Flores con el 26% y Alan García con 21% de la intención de voto. Este cuestionario electoral fue respondido por 1,350 personas en trece regiones del país.

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La República, 27 de marzo del 2006
This APOYO Opinión y Mercados survey was conducted exclusively for America Television. Universe: 2000 people in 178 districts in 113 localities in 79 provinces in all departments. Margin of error: +/-2.2%. The sample represents 81% of the electoral population of Peru. Download file
The trend from the last APOYO poll appears stable. In the words of Alfredo Torres, the director of APOYO, the big news is no news. Humala has not shot to within grasp of a first round victory, Garcia has not caught up with Flores, and Flores has nor recovered first place. Humala has a clear lead in rural areas and Flores in Lima. In a second round, Flores would win over Garcia or Humala; Humala would win over Garcia.

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La Primera, 26 de marzo del 2006
Universe: 5,071 interviews in Lima and rural areas across the country. Margin of error +/- 3.5 to 5%.
Note: We were not aware of Universidad Alas Peruanas conducting polls.

Read the rest of this entry »

Source: La República, 25 de marzo del 2006
Note: the chart above contains samles that cover different geographic areas. The size of the samples are also different.

Read the rest of this entry »