I just found (thanks to fellow blogger Utero de Marita!) this cyber-campaign Campaña por una Elección Moral frente al Proceso Electoral led by a group of young citizens who are critical of the current electoral process and the three leading candidates (Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia). The cyber-campaigners propose to support a coalition Valentin Paniagua-Javier Diez Canseco-Susana Villaran. We will follow their cyber-activities… Below you will find a copy of their manifesto.
Author: Michael Ha
Hal Weitzman has written an insightful piece in the Financial Times on Ollanta Humala’ support in the south of Peru.
An opinion piece by Mario Vargas Llosa published in El Comercio is sure to be widely read and discussed.
An interesting analysis on the technical tie between Lourdes Flores and Ollanta Humala can be found in the weblog Gran Combo Club: El empate tecnico trasciende.
According to Nelson Manrique, Lourdes Flores, candidate for National Unity, faces challenges similar to those that confronted Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990. First, it is difficult for Flores shake her image as a candidate of the rich, especially in the midst of the barrage of spending on political advertisements by her congressional candidates. Second, although Flores has traveled extensively across the country, her core support remains strongest in Lima.
In contrast, Ollanta Humala has a clear lead outside Lima. Analyst Fernando Rospigliosi argues that, if there is a second round, APRA will back the outsider–in this case Ollanta Humala, as it did in 1990. For Eduardo Toche, if Humala gets elected, there will be serious consequences for governability given the controversy over Humala’s record of military service. For Jose Luis Tapia, the second round could be between Humala and Alan Garcia. If that is the case, Tapia hopes local business leaders recognize the need to avoid the kinds of mistakes that were made by business leaders in Venezuela. He mentions the coup led by Pedro Carmona, which reinforced the power of Hugo Chavez. Over-reactions by Peru’s business leaders could also reinforce Humala.
Lourdes Flores may be considering some changes to her hyperpersonal campaign strategy given the results of the latest APOYO national poll. Suggestions proposed by members of her alliance include:
– Undertake fewer walks through neighbourhoods and more public meetings.
– Provide opportunities for media exposure to representantives of National Unity. So far, Lourdes Flores has been the only voice.
– Use more local political analysis and less imported political marketing.
– Less TV advertisement by congressional candidates.
– Talk about concrete themes like education, investment and employment.
Such advice suggests the fraying of internal unity.
In an interview with La República, Javier Diez Canseco (of the Socialist Party, or Partido Socialista) describes his unsuccessful negotiation to reach a political agreement with Ollanta Humala earlier in the campaign.
There are more details in a previous posting.
Source: La República, 14 de marzo del 2006. Fotos: Yanina Patricio.
Michael Voss, enviado especial de la BBC, realizó la crónica “Peru candidates court the poor” alrededor del clima político-electoral en el país a menos de un mes de realizarse las elecciones. Candidatos disputando el voto presidencial haciendo de la pobreza el punto principal en el debate político.
Few analysts know as much about economic power groups in Peru as Francisco Durand. In this commentary, published in La Republica, he discusses the economic linkages between Dionisio Romero, the richest man in Peru, and Lourdes Flores.
Source: La República, 14 de marzo del 2006
Categories
Interview with Martha Chávez
Source: La República, 14 de marzo del 2006
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones publicó cronograma con las disposiciones legales que todo ciudadano deberá cumplir antes, durante y después de las elecciones del próximo 9 de abril.
Tras conocerse los resultados de la última encuesta de Apoyo, Manuel Saavedra, Oscar Díaz y Raúl Chamamé señalaron que el crecimiento de Ollanta Humala se debería al voto fujimorista y a la influencia de los ataques de Alan García a Lourdes Flores.
Categories
Divisions in National Unity
Jose Barba Caballero has criticized Lourdes Flores and stated that she will not win the general elections in the first round, but will beat Ollanta Humala in the second round.
Encuesta Nacional sobre exclusion y discriminacion social. Informe Final de analisis de resultados. Estudio realizado por DEMUS entre agosto y setiembre del 2004.
Universo: 1600 personas en zonas urbanas y rurales de 14 departamentos del Peru. Download file
Source: La República, 13 de marzo del 2006
La Dra. Magdalena Chú Villanueva, Jefa de la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) confirmó el día viernes pasado el inicio de la impresión de las cédulas de sufragio para un total de 16 millones 494 mil 906 electores que participarán en las elecciones generales del 9 de abril.
La Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), estableció esta disposición especial como medida de seguridad para lograr un voto consciente de los electores en los próximos comicios del 9 de abril.
El viernes pasado Nicolás Lynch (PS), Agustín Haya (PAP), Enrique Cornejo (PAP), Javier Barreda (PAP) y Alejandro Narváez (MNI), habían cuestionado la impugnación a sus postulaciones decidida por el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, alegando que “no se había seguido el debido proceso”, dejando en claro que si el JNE no daba solución a sus reclamos acudirían al Tribunal Constitucional. Tras dos días de deliberaciones, el sábado fueron aprobados Lynch, Dammert y Narváez, mientras que el día de ayer fue el turno de los 3 candidatos por el APRA, Haya, Cornejo y Barreda.
Source: La República, 13 de marzo del 2006
Apoyo Opinión y Mercado S.A. trabajó la encuesta para América Televisión. Metodología y técnica: Se aplicó un muestreo probabilístico polietápico estratificado por región de residencia (Lima, Costa Norte, Arequipa y Costa Sur, Sierra Norte, Sierra Centro, Sierra Sur y Selva) y ámbito de residencia (urbano-rural). Tamaño de muestra: 2000 electores hábiles. Fecha de realización: Entre el 8 al 10 de marzo del 2006. Lugares de realización y cobertura: 178 distritos de 113 localidades de 79 provincias de todos los departamentos del país. Nivel de representatividad: En las provincias seleccionadas reside el 81% de la población electoral del Perú. Margen de error: +/- 2.2% asumiendo un nivel de confianza del 95%. Download file
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 12, 2006
The television show “Cuarto Poder” revealed that the latest poll by APOYO gives Flores 31 percent and Humala 30 percent of the decided voters, while Alan Garcia hold third place with 22 percent. This shows a significant jump for Humala, and a continuing slide for Flores.
The poll also showed that in a second round Flores would win 54 percent and Humala would capture 47 percent. This is a much closer result than anything we have seen before in the polls. She does better against Garcia, with 59 percent to 41 percent. In this case too, however, Flores appears to be slipping. In any event, the race is tightening now not only for the first round, but for the second round too.
The congressional results place Apra in the lead with 23 percent of the vote, National Unity next with 20 percent, and UPP with 17 percent.
Gustavo Gorriti and Fernando Rospigliosi, both prominent commentators and veterans of the struggle for democracy under the authoritarian regime of Alberto Fujimori, call attention in their respective editorials today to the dangers inherent in the candidacy of Ollanta Humala. Rospigliosi focuses on the connections between Humala and his entourage and the mafia controlled by Vladimiro Montesinos in the armed forces, while Gorriti calls Humala an enemy of democracy who could turn out to be worse than Fujimori.
The negative campaigning continues. Alan Garcia has attacked Lourdes Flores, comparing her to Ollanta Humala as a “demagogue.” Humala, for his part, accuses the members of congress who threaten to investigate the matter of his military record as people who eat lying on their backs (comechados).
Unless the National Election Board (JNE) backs down, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance is threatening to take the election authorities to the Constitutional Tribunal in protest against the refusal of the JNE to allow a number of its candidates to run for congress.
APRA’s Lawyer, Javier Valle Riestra, argues that the right to be elected is a fundamental human right enshrined in the constitution and international conventions, and it cannot be denied by election authorities based on arbitrary legal resolutions without undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process. A constitutional challenge could mean further delays before the final list of candidates is known.
Meanwhile, the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) insists that the delays caused by the JNE affect its ability to print preparatory material necessary for the election and could mean the inability to get ballots to polling stations abroad. The election can be kept within the electoral calendar only if the JNE finalizes the list of candidates by tomorrow, said Magdalena Chu, the head of ONPE.
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 11, 2006
Columnist for Peru21, Ricardo Ramos Tremolada, confirms our analysis that Alan Garcia is directing his attacks on Lourdes Flores in the hopes of eliminating her from contention in the first round and competing with Ollanta Humala in the second round. Garcia presumably expects he would do better against Humala than Flores, and that is what the polls say. However Ramos Tremolada suggests a lot of second round voters would rather vote for Humala in a second round, not out of anti-Aprismo but because they dislike Alan Garcia. He concludes that “All indications are that the next president of Peru will be Ollanta Humala.”
Ramos Tremolada reserves some critical comments for Mirko Lauer, who he says supports Alan Garcia. Lauer’s column in La Republica today also speculates about the possibility of an Humala-Garcia runoff. He notes the tendency of Flores to fall in the polls and the rise of Garcia and Humala (I would say Garcia more than Humala, who has been stable around 25 percent for the last few weeks). Flores has responded to these trends, says Lauer, with the announcment of a campaign to defend her vote in polling stations and by targeting the undecided voter. Humala persists in defending himself against media attacks which are favoring him; and Garcia is promoting a climate of entertainment in his campaign, which seems to be working.
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 10, 2006
Augusto Álvarez Rodrich says that while anything is possible in the last 30 days of the campaign, it would be a big surprise if there was not a second round with Lourdes Flores, Ollanta Humala or Alan Garcia. I agree with Álvarez Rodrich, and would add that the race between the three is tightening.
The top three candidates have 80 percent of the preferences of the decided voters. The spread between them has been cut in half, however, from around 20 percent to about 10 percent, in the past month. Until recently, Lourdes Flores Nano, the candidate for National Unity, has held a strong lead. She has hovered around 30-35 percent throughout most of the campaign, occasionally slipped below 30 percent or rising as high as 37 or 38 percent. In a recent poll, she stood at 33 percent. Meanwhile Ollanta Humala, who emerged from nowhere to take first spot temporarily in mid-January, has settled at around 25 percent of the vote since then. The most marked tendency in the last few weeks has been the rise of Alan Garcia, who now stands close to Humala with about 22 percent of the vote.
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) eliminó de la contienda electoral a 5 candidatos del APRA y 6 de la alianza electoral del Frente de Centro. La sorpresa la dió la admisión del conocido cantante de música tropical Abelardo Gutierrez Alanya, más conocido como “Tongo”, de Renacimiento Andino.
UPDATE: On March 12 La Republica reported Dammert was approved to run by the JNE.
Source: El Comercio, 10 de marzo del 2006
Por medio de una resolución publicada hoy en el diario oficial El Peruano, la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), estableció el nuevo tiempo que regirá para los partidos políticos hasta un día antes de los comicios generales del 9 de abril:
– Perú Posible: 65 minutos y 35 segundos (Partido con mayor cantidad de minutos)
– Partido Aprista: 58 minutos y 30 segundos
– Unidad Nacional: 30 minutos y 10 segundos
– Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM): 17 minutos y 76 segundos
– Unión por el Perú (UPP): 14 minutos y 24 segundos
– Demás organizaciones políticas: 12 minutos y 48 segundos.
Asimismo, anunció que el próximo jueves 16 será el día en que se dará inicio a la franja electoral en los medios de comunicación privados.
Durante un mitin el pasado martes 7 en la plaza Manco Capac en La Victoria, el candidato por el APRA, Alan García manifesto ser partidario frente al terrorismo de los “jueces sin rostro” en un eventual gobierno aprista. Tras ser criticadas inmediatamente por Marcial Ayaipoma, titular del Congreso; Alcides Chamorro, ex titular de la Comisión de Justicia e Ismael Vega, representante de la sección peruana de Amnistía Internacional por considerarlo antidemocrático, un retroceso en los DDHH e Inconstitucional; el dia de ayer se sumó el candidato presidencial del Frente de Centro, Valentín Paniagua, quien manifestó que esta figura no está permitida por la Constitución.
Categories
Humala Complains to OAS
Ollanta Humala has complained to the OAS that Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Alejandro Toledo are interfering in the electoral process. He is also complaining that only about 10 percent of the military, who are able to vote for the first time in this election, will actually be able to do so.
Categories
ONPE Prints Ballots
Notwithstanding the fact that it has not received from the National Election Board (JNE) a finalized and complete list of candidates, the ONPE has begun to print ballots for the April 9 election. Ballots do not contain the names of congressional candidates, but ONPE has been insisting that it should print the ballots along with the documentation of names of candidates at the same time because this is required by law and is less costly. However, to insist on simultaneous production of the ballots and list of candidates would cause delays and could interfere with the election calendar.
Meanwhile, a number of candidates who have been rejected by the JNE are using the last available appeal procedure. Last night on Prensa Libre, Rosa Maria Palacios interviewed three university professors who have been barred because they did not present documentation showing they are on unpaid leave of absence from San Marcos University–Manuel Dammert, Agustin Haya de la Torre, and Nicolas Lynch. They are arguing that their constitutional right to be elected is being infringed by arbitrary legal roadblocks. Lynch referred to the decision by the JNE as a “fraud.”
In an interview with La Primera, Agustin Haya de la Torre says the JNE is delegitimating the elections, and he threatens to challenge the decision before international organizations.
In a meeting in Ate Vitarte, Ollanta Humala read from the file containing his military service record (or “efficiency report”) in 1992, the same document that has mysteriously disappeared from the Ministry of Defense. He challenged the authorities to arrest him. (The Minister of Defense has said possession of this document is a crime). Humala read words of praise for his service, which suggested he had survived battles and recovered weapons without losing soldiers and was respected by soldiers under his command and by superior officers. Humala also stated that he is “the only candidate” to embrace the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in his plans for government.
The dispute continues between the ONPE and JNE. ONPE official Carlos Loyola says the time is up for the JNE to provide the complete list of candidates to congress and the Andean Parliament for the April 9 election. There can be no further delays, he said, without putting the electoral calendar at risk, something the JNE dismisses.
The second IMA Estudios de Marketing S.A.C. national urban poll confirms a slight decline in Lourdes Flores’ lead, with 26.9% (down from 27.2% in January). Ollanta Humala is in a technical tie for second place with 21.6% (up from 18.7% in January). Alan Garcia makes the largest gain with 20.1% (up from 14.7% in January). The overall conclusion is that the race is tightening. The poll also shows APRA in the lead in the race for congressional seats, followed by UN and UPP.
Universe: 6,400 interviews in 20 cities across the coutnry. Margin of error 1.22%.
Source: La República, 9 de marzo del 2006. Fotos: Marcos Rojas y Christian Salazar
Wilfredo Guzmán Jara del Partido Unión por el Perú (UPP), Víctor Vargas Chávarri, del Partido Socialista (PS), Luis Galarreta, de Unidad Nacional (UN), Luis Alfredo Bravo y Américo Martínez de Resurgimiento Peruano, son 5 candidatos con discapacidad que postulan al Congreso de la República para luchar por la educación inclusiva, la accesibilidad al trabajo, la promoción del empleo y la salud, pero sobretodo, para el fortalecimiento de la Ley General de la Persona con Discapacidad (27050).
Source: La República, 9 de marzo del 2006
Según una encuesta realizada por la Compañía de Estudios de Mercado y Opinión Pública (CPI), de un total de 2,100 entrevistas realizadas a nivel nacional, el 93% opina que el narcotráfico debe ser considerado un tema importante para ser debatido por los candidatos en la campaña política. El 59% considera que ningúno de ellos le ha dado la debida importancia.
Universo investigado: Población urbana y rural, hombres y mujeres en aptitud de votar, pertenecientes a los niveles socioeconómicos alto/medio y bajo/muy bajo. Cobertura geográfica: 20 departamentos, 99 provincias y 290 distritos. Técnica de investigación: Encuesta personal. Muestra: 2.100 entrevistados. Nivel de confianza: 95,5%. Margen de error: +/- 2,2%. Trabajo de campo: Del 23 al 27 de febrero del 2006.
El Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) continuó con la publicación de las resoluciones en las que declara fundados los recursos de apelación interpuestos contra los fallos del Jurado Electoral Especial Lima Centro (JEE-LC), aprobando el retorno de 17 candidatos, siendo los más conocidos o controversiales los de Daniel Abugattás y Cenaida Uribe (UPP), y Gustavo Pacheco (FIM); mientras que 18 candidatos de las agrupaciones UPP, FIM, Renacimiento Andino, Alianza por el Futuro y Fuerza Democrática quedaron fuera del proceso electoral.
Source: La República, 9 de marzo del 2006
La revista Ideele envió un cuestionario a las distintas agrupaciones políticas que se encuentran en campaña con el objetivo de medir sus prioridades en los aspectos de política y economía, justicia militar, la comisión de la verdad, seguridad ciudadana y los derechos sexuales y reproductivos obteniendo sorprendentes resultados por la ausencia de medidas ante estos importantes aspectos.
La Inspectoría General del Ejército denunció ante el Consejo Supremo de Justicia Militar (CSJM) al coronel EP Luis Pereira Briceño y a los que resulten responsables por los presuntos delitos de destrucción de documento militar y desobediencia en el caso del legajo personal de Ollanta Humala.
Categories
Peru Election 2006 in the news
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 8, 2006
With the election just over a month away, the delays caused by the various legal disputes over who is eligible to run are threatening the electoral calendar.
The National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) insists that it cannot begin to print the ballots for the April 9 election until the National Election Board (JNE) finalizes the list of candidates. The JNE claims that they have sent complete lists for 17 of 25 registered electoral groups, but the ONPE says that this information is neither official (it did not come with the official JNE seal) nor can it be used because the printing presses cannot be stopped and started without adding to the cost of production. The total time it will take to print all the ballots is 15 days. The first set of ballots to be distributed are those that go abroad, and these should be ready to go by March 16.
ONPE points out that there are still potentially legal actions pending. The JNE has eliminated 35 candidates from the various lists. One electoral group–Concertacion Decentralista, led by Susana Villaran–is planning on challenging the decision by the JNE to reject 10 of its congressional candidates. They are preparing to take the issue to the Constitutional Tribunal. One of the eliminated candidates on Villaran’s list is Manuel Dammert, who has held legislative office before. He is a heavy-weight in her slate, and his elimination is a serious blow. He has been eliminated because he did not present documentation that he is on unpaid leave of absence from his teaching job. The law says that public officials have to present evidence they are on unpaid leave, but the JNE is interpreting this to mean universities as well. A spokesperson for Concertacion Decentralista says this is contrary to the law. Moreover, as we have reported previously, the JNE decided to require that candidates provide documentation to this effect in a decision published on February 3, only 5 days before the deadline to register.
The deeper background to this issue is that the ONPE is the body that organizes the elections, and the JNE is the legal authority that resolves disputes arising from the election process. In Peru, these two bodies are separate but have had difficulty coordinating.
For its part, the ONPE is also coming under scrutiny for its apparent inability to enforce party finance rules. 27 of 29 of the nation’s political parties have provided information concerning their financing, and this information will be made public on Friday. The ONPE can use this information to inquire about the sources of funding but it has little enforcement ability. Unless donations come from sources with a legal record, there is little the ONPE can do to verify the accuracy of the information provided by the parties.
Source: La República, 8 de marzo del 2006
Un sondeo realizado por la empresa Imagen dio como resultado que tres cuartas partes de los peruanos priorizan al empleo como tema para elegir a un determinado candidato electoral.
Encuesta realizada en un universo de 1,611 personas de 18 a 70 años a nivel nacional. Margen de error de +-2.5% para un nivel de confianza del 95.5%
Source: La Primera, 8 de marzo del 2006
El Día Internacional de la Mujer se celebra desde hace más de ocho décadas. Cada 8 de marzo, mujeres y hombres que trabajan por sus causas, conmemoran a nivel mundial los esfuerzos que las mujeres han realizado por alcanzar la igualdad, la justicia, la paz y el desarrollo, y aunque el Perú no se queda atrás en cuanto a la celebración y toma de conciencia sobre este importante tema, todavía la participación femenina en la vida política, económica y social sigue siendo limitada a nivel de toma de decisiones. Según la última encuesta de la Universidad de Lima, la mayoría de mujeres siente que la sociedad peruana las discrimina porque aún se vive en una sociedad machista. Candidatas a la presidencia, congresistas y la Defensora de la Mujer opinan sobre los escasos logros de la mujer peruana.
Source: La Primera, 8 de marzo del 2006
Según la encuesta del Instituto de Opinión Pública de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú realizada entre los días 24 y 26 de febrero, el 43% de las mujeres a nivel nacional votaría por Lourdes Flores Nano, mientras que sólo un 29% de los hombres haría lo mismo.