Biography: Antauro Humala
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Author: Michael Ha
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El Quijote en los Andes
Jorge Zavaleta*
Voltairenet.org
2 de abril de 2006
Maxwell A. Cameron
April 2, 2006
At this moment, one week from today, the polls will be closed and scrutineers will be counting the votes. The election is one week away, and in this final week many things could happen. The last week is strategically important. Each campaign will want to end with a sense of momentum and anticipated triumph. The closing rallies will be big, noisy, colorful events, and a couple are scheduled to occur simultaneously within the radius of a few city blocks in downtown Lima.
The insults and the recriminations between the various candidates and their supporters will probably intensify. An especially intense race is emerging between Lourdes Flores of National Unity (UN) and Alan Garcia of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) for the second-place spot. Whereas all the polls coincide in suggesting that the first place candidate is Ollanta Humala of the Union for Peru (UPP), is it unclear whether the critically important runner-up candidate will be Lourdes Flores or Alan Garcia. The tendency in the polls over the past few weeks has been for Garcia to gain support slowly and for Flores to declining support equally slowly. It is possible that by the end of the week the two candidates could be tied, in which case either one might pass into the second round.
Source: El Comercio, 2 de abril del 2006
Semana decisiva
Apoyo Opinion y Mercado
“La última encuesta publicable antes de la veda informativa confirma algunas certezas pero deja abierta todavía importantes incertidumbres con respecto a las elecciones del 9 de abril. Entre las primeras, se confirma que lo más probable es que Ollanta Humala llegue en primer lugar pero sin alcanzar un triunfo en primera vuelta. En la última medición ha registrado dos puntos menos que la semana anterior, lo cual indicaría que su crecimiento se ha detenido. No obstante, es posible que vuelva a incrementarse en la medida en que el perfil de quienes se encuentran aún indecisos se parece más al de los votantes del candidato de la UPP.” Download file
Compania Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinion Publica S.A.C. (CPI) conducted a national poll between March 27-31 in exclusivity for Radio Programas del Peru and Correo. Sample: 3,896 individuals in 25 departments, 112 provinces and 402 districts. Margin of error varies from +/-1.6% to +/-5.8% depending on the region. Download file
Based on valid vote:
Ollanta Humala: 31.5%
Lourdes Flores: 26.8%
Alan Garcia: 23.1%
Grupo de Opinion Publica de la Universidad de Lima for La Republica:
Ollanta Humala: 28.6%
Lourdes Flores: 22.9%
Alan Garcia: 19.9%
“Blind vote” (vote in areas not reached by pollsters): 13%
– Results confirm growth of Humala since December 2005.
– Flores maintains strong lead in Lima with 31.3% followed by Humala with 21%.
– Humala holds the rural vote with 40.4% and Flores the urban vote with 20.9%.
Sample: 2,442 individuals from 25 regions, 58 provinces, a44 districts residing in urban and rural areas. The sample represents 87% of the electoral population. Margin of error +/- 2.02. Download file
The Race for second place between Flores and Garcia is illustrated below:
Source: La Republica, 2 de abril del 2006
Source: La República, 1 de abril del 2006
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Interview with Fernando Rospigliosi
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Interview with Lourdes Flores
Rosa Maria Palacios, Juan Carlos Tafur and fari Kahhat analyze how little we know about the candidate leading the polls.
Ollanta Humala met with the association of the foreign press in Peru on Friday, March 31. He answered questions on a wide range of topics. Here are the highlights:
Re-Election
Re-election is not necessarily bad; it can be good under certain conditions. However, the current congress should not be re-elected. When some members of congress make as much as $18,000 dollars while teachers earn 250 Soles, re-election is not positive. Humala declined to state categorically that he would not seek presidential re-election. “Ask me this after April 9” he said. “In principle I am opposed to re-election, starting with me.” Humala also intimated that he favors recall, saying he wants to look at “democratic mechanisms by which they people can remove those who have defrauded their voters.”
Constituent Assembly
Peru needs a new constitution, said Humala, one that does not limit the role of the state in the economy but rather allows it to play a developmental role. The 1993 constitution is a spurious document, one that was created after the congress was closed in 1992. On April 9, the composition of the new congress will be seen. Humala said he would dialogue with all sides and search for the way to create a new constitution. He refused to go into any detail with respect to the mechanics of constitutional change, and denied that he would use Venezuela under Chavez as a model for Peru. He did talk about a popular referendum and said whether this would involve suspending the congress elected on April 9 would not depend on him and that he did not believe this was necessary. At the same time, he did not rule it out.
Democracy
Humala called Peruvian democracy “virtual, electoralist democracy,” in which there are “electors but not citizens.” Politics has become a “dictatorship of political operators of economic groups.” There is a re-composition of political systems occurring in the region. Ecuador has had three changes of president recently, and throughout the Andean region there have been golpes which have brought presidents down, but none that have succeeded in imposing new leaders. New leaders have entered democratically. There is a new family of democratic forces emerging. The common denominator is that they are progressive forces seeking alternatives to neoliberalism.
Left vs. Right
The distinction between left and right has less and less important, said Humala when asked where he locates himself on the left-right spectrum. “I am neither left nor right but rather below” he said. He argued that the terms left and right made sense in the context of the confrontation of two empires during Cold War. When that ended, capitalist globalization won out and from that point on the new confrontation has been between globalizers and globalized. That is, globalization is perforating sovereignty giving rise to a new force–nationalism. Humala also argued that his conservative adversary does not represent an ideological option for Peru. Rather, Peru’s right is composed of political operators who work on behalf of powerful economic groups.
The Military
Humala argued that military officers who committed crimes under the Fujimori regime should be punished with expulsion from the armed forces. He denied that military are over-privileged, however, saying that some of the benefits they are given (such as free gasoline or travel expenses) compensate for low salaries. He denied that there is anyone in his entourage with links to Vladimiro Montesinos and he characterized the “Vladivideos” as as important as Mariategui’s Seven Essays because they exposed the reality of corruption in Peru, which afflicts not just the armed forces but also the media and entrepreneurial groups. The military needs to restore its legitimacy in the eyes of the citizenry, said Humala, but he also stressed that the military is a popular institution. He said one can search in vain the the barracks for people with last names like Kuscynski, Diez Canseco, Ferrero, or Belaunde.
Taxes and Royalties in the Natural Resource Sector
An Humala government would review all contracts in the mining sector to determine: (1) whether companies are paying their taxes; (2) whether they are paying royalties; and (3) whether they are damaging the environment. Companies that are paying taxes and royalties and are not hurting the environment have nothing to worry about said Humala.
Drug-trafficking and the United States
According to Humala, he is not anti-anyone. His assessment of policies with respect to drug trafficking is negative. There are 300,000 families living off the production of the coca leaf, and they need profitable alternatives. He opposes the forceful eradication of coca production. Peru as a sovereign country has the right to end interdiction flights and to insist that the only military forces on Peruvian territory are the armed forces of Peru.
Corruption and Tax Evasion
Humala calls corruption “the strongest institution in Peru.” Crossing a red light costs 5 Soles. With the right bribes you can move through the Palace of Justice like you were on ice skates. Humala called for the owners of television stations who have not paid back taxes to pay up. “What does it matter is the macroeconomic figures put the country in black when there is no development?” The people, he claimed, are fed up with corruption and laws that are enforced in a discriminatory way.
Homophobia
This should not matter in the 21st century, said Humala. There should not be discrimination against people for choosing a different option. The only thing that he would demand of people in his government is that they be committed to the project and it is unimportant whether they are male or female, black, white or copper-tone, homosexual or not. “I am not homophobic” he said.
The Campaign
Asked what he has learned from 5 months of campaigning, Humala said that he has confirmed that Peruvian politics is a sewer. The people do not believe the candidates anymore, and they realize that in Peru there are divisions, that Peru is a fractured society. At the same time, and on a more positive note, Humala said he has been touched by gifts he has been given by people on the campaign trail. He said he has received notes, poems, small donations and even a crucifix. He also mentioned that at one point he saw woman in a crowd looking at him with eyes filled with hatred and he said this gave him pause to think and then to state in a campaign speech that he does not want to sow hatred in the country.
Fraud
Humala said that, with all humility, his party is seeking a victory in the first round. The law has given the vote to the armed forces. But mechanisms are being created so that this vote will be impossible. 80 percent of the military will be tied up on election day so that those who will actually be able to vote will be 20 percent or less. It is not enough that soldiers and police have been exonerated from the fine for not voting. The point is they can’t vote. This disturbs the electoral panorama. When something like this happens, it is always “for the benefit of someone” said Humala. The political class thinks it is not convenient for the military to vote. “My perception,” said Humala, “is that the armed forces are highly nationalistic.” The National Election Board has not allowed the UPP to use the word nationalism (in the party label), complained Humala. The authorities have not been impartial in their treatment of his movement, he said. “But in their field, with their umpire, we are going to score big.”
Source: La Republica, April 1, 2006
Survey conducted by IMA – Estudios de Marketing S.A.C. between March 27 to 29, 2006.
Sample: 630 cases in 31 districts in Lima. Margin of error: ± 3.9.%. Download file
The latest poll by the Catholic University, conducted between 24 and 26 March, finds Ollanta Humala in first place with 31 percent of the valid vote, followed by Lourdes Flores with 27 percent of respondents saying they intend to vote for her, and 20 percent of the decided voters supporting Alan Garcia.
The finding largely replicates other recent polls, including the last APOYO poll, at least in the order of candidates. If the PUCP poll is right, the chances are there will be a second round and the two main contenders will be Humala and Flores. An outright first round victory by either is unlikely.
The PUCP survey also probed intentions for a second round. In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Ollanta Humala, Flores would win with 55 percent to 45 percent of the vote for Humala.
In a runoff between Lourdes Flores and Alan Garcia, the margin of victory for Flores would be even greater: 59 to 41 percent.
In a runoff between Humala and Garcia, Humala would win 53 percent of the vote, and Garcia would lose with 47 percent.
A key reason for the likely success of Flores in a second round, according to this poll, is the fact that Flores provokes less negative reactions than Humala or Garcia–especially among women, youth, and people in Lima (particularly the more affluent).
51 percent of those polled said they would never vote for Humala, versus 38 percent who feel that way about Flores. 56 percent would never vote for Garcia.
It should be remembered, however, that projections about how people would vote in a second round are highly speculative and can change.
The next congress is unlikely to provide a majority for the governing party. The percent of voters who say they will vote for Unidad Nacional candidates for congress is 16.1 percent. Those who will vote for APRA candidates are 15.1 percent of the electorate. 14.1 percent of the electorate plans to vote for UPP. An impressive 9.4 percent of voters say they will vote for the Alianza para el Futuro, the Fujimorista party led by Martha Chavez.
Sample: 1,945 individuals interviewed in 86 districts in 24 urban provinces in 18 departments across the country, representing 66.5% of the electoral population. Margin of error +/-2.2%. Download file
Marta Lillo Bustos
Diario Financiero
31 de Marzo del 2006, pp. 51-2.
Download file 1
Download file 2
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The Lure of Populism
DeShazo, Peter. Elections in Peru: The Lure of Populism. Americas Program Hemisphere Focus, Volume XIV, Issue 2.
Download file
According to Marina Jimenez of The Globe and Mail, “Mr. Humala, 43, is riding a wave of regional discontent with the neo-liberal policies of privatization and free trade. While the Andean country of 27 million has experienced solid economic growth for five consecutive years — 7 per cent last year — the benefits have not filtered down to the poor majority living in the shantytowns and the highlands.”
In a press comunique, the Organization of American States Observation Mission has made a call for respect and tolerance to all political actors.
Alan Garcia has questioned the findings of some polls and accussed pollsters to favour Lourdes Flores with their results. Bernardo Verjovski, President of the Peruvian Association of Market Research (APEIM), has informed the National Election Board (JNE) of critical errors in the implementation and measurement of polls by IDICE. IDICE is a company not affiliated with APEIM and their findings should be read with some skepticism.
El procurador del Ministerio Público, Rolando Martel, ha solicitado al Tribunal Constitucional que examine propuesta ley de justicia militar que podria abrir la posibilidad de que militares en actividad ocupen cargos como la presidencia de la corte suprema.
During an interview with Canal N, retired General Ludwig Essenwanger, former intelligence chief and advisor on defense issues for candidate Ollanta Humala, suggested the possibility of a popular uprising if there were indications of fraud in this election, as suggested during a rally by candidate Humala. In a press conference, Magadalena Chu, ONPE Chief, responded to Ollanta Humala’s Claim of Fraud assuring elections will take place according to the law.
Ollanta Humala’s claim that his movement will be the victim of a fraud if members of the armed forces supporting his candidacy cannot vote on April 9 has been roundly rejected by other candidates.
Peru nationalist targets global mining groups
By Hal Weitzman in Tacna, southern Peru
Financial Times.com, March 30 2006 03:00
“Ollanta Humala, the frontrunner in Peru’s presidential elections, has vowed to alter contracts with foreign investors that are currently ex-empt from paying royalties, a move that would affect global miners such as Newmont, BHP Billiton, Phelps Dodge, Falconbridge and Barrick. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Humala also pledged to introduce “21st-century nationalisation” and said he would refuse to sign the trade deal Peru has agreed with Washington. In addition, he promised to restrict imports from China, limit Chilean investment in Peru and end US-sponsored eradication of coca, the raw material for cocaine.”
Investigative journalist Edmundo Cruz describes what we know–and what we do not know–about Ollanta Humala’s 25 years of military service.
Source: La República, 29 de marzo del 2006
Natale Amprimo, candidate for Alianza para el Progreso, challenged the ONPE resolution that allows the votes for the president, congress, and Andean parliament to be counted sequentially. According to Mr. Amprimo, the ONPE should not separate the three forms with voting results (actas) because this opens the door to fraud and chaos in the process of scrutinizing the votes. He claims the ONPE is not providing a guarantee of transparency in the election. Amprimo´s action came shortly after a spokesperson for the National Election Board (JNE) had sounded the alarm that the ONPE resolution could be subject to a legal challenge. The ONPE has proposed to count the votes sequentially, starting with the presidential election, in order to be able to offer official (as opposed to exit poll) results on the same day as the election.
According to the Minister of Defense, Marciano Rengifo, only about 35 percent of the military will vote on April 9. There will be a major mobilization of the armed forces into the interior of the country. Only about 33,000 members of the armed forces will be where they are registered according to their identity cards. The Minister denied reports that the military intelligence service is following Ollanta Humala’s campaign activities.
There is strong resistance to the candidacy of Ollanta Humala in the upper ranks of Peru’s Armed Forces.
Fernando Olivera Vega, head of the Frente Independiente Moralizador, played a video to the press, complete with gruesome images and spine-chilling music, which purported to show that the brothers Ollanta and Antauro Humala are two sides of the same coin. Notwithstanding the theatrics, some commentators were nonplused by the lack of new information.
According to a national poll by Conecta Asociados, Ollanta Humala holds first place with 34.3 percent of the vote; Lourdes Flores is in second place with 27.7 percent of the vote; and Alan Garcia is in third place with 20.6 percent. Since the poll was conducted after controversial statements made by Humala’s parents, it would appear that they did not affect his image. Download file
Según la encuesta nacional de Conecta Asociados elaborada en exclusiva para el diario Perú.21, Ollanta Humala se mantiene en el primer lugar con el 34.3%, con una diferencia de 7 puntos de su más cercano rival, Lourdes Flores con el 27.7% y en tercer lugar, alejado 14 puntos del primero, Alan García con 20.6% de los votos válidos. En el caso de una segunda vuelta entre Humala con Flores Nano, habría un empate técnico, porque el primero obtendría el 39% y la segunda el 41%.
Mario Vargas Llosa and son Alvaro have commented on the candidacy of Ollanta Humala. They warn that Humala represents a threat to Peru’s fragile democracy.
Source: Magaly Tve
Last night Ollanta Humala and Nadine Heredia showed audiences their personal side during an interview in Magaly Medina’s show Magaly Tve. They talked about how they met, their children, their relationship. Ms. Heredia sang and was very lively. Humala showed a softer, less confrontational image.
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Interview with Susana Villarán
A few days after an interview with La Republica, Daniel Abugattas was replaced as spokesperson for UPP. President Alejandro Toledo did not take kindly to the suggestions that his wife, first lady Eliane Karp, is an “hija de puta” (literally, daughter of a bitch). Abugattas has demonstrated a procllivity to make unfortunate off-the-cuff remarks. In this case he apologized, but the damage was done.
Julio F. Carrión
Profesor de Ciencias Políticas y Relaciones Internacionales
Universidad de Delaware, USA
Con escasos días antes del 9 de abril, la gran mayoría de los peruanos tiene una idea muy clara acerca de por quién va a votar. Muchos lo harán por Ollanta Humala, quién ha prometido llamar a una asamblea constituyente apenas asuma el poder. Si las encuestas recientes son correctas, existe un amplio apoyo popular a esta idea. De convocarse dicha asamblea, que probablemente producirá una constitución a gusto del presidente, el Perú seguramente volverá a caer en el grupo de países que experimentan un fenómeno contemporáneo muy peculiar: el autoritarismo de origen electoral.
Leemos en los diarios en estos días que el señor Lukashenko, presidente de Bielorrusia desde 1994, trata por medios violentos de mantenerse en el poder. La ironía es que Lukashenko ganó su primera elección en unos comicios impecables y amparado en una plataforma de lucha contra la corrupción. Después de su elección convocó a sucesivos plebiscitos para cambiar la constitución y poder ser reelegido repetidamente. El parecido con lo sucedido en nuestro país en la década del noventa es innegable. Y es también parecido a lo sucedido en muchos otros países de diversas regiones del mundo. El patrón, con algunas variantes, es siempre el mismo: el candidato anti-sistema es elegido abrumadoramente, y una vez en la presidencia usa su apoyo popular—vía plebiscitos o asambleas constituyentes—para cambiar las reglas de juego que lo llevaron al poder, reducir la competencia política, y perpetuarse en el poder. Hugo Chávez en Venezuela, Fujimori en nuestro país, y un gran número de presidentes de las repúblicas que fueron parte de la Unión Soviética, son ejemplos de este tipo de gobierno.
El problema es que una vez que estos autócratas son elegidos, es muy difícil sacarlos del poder vía elecciones. A diferencia de las dictaduras tradicionales, estos gobiernos mantienen las formas de la democracia, pero la vacían de todo contenido. El objetivo es reducir y si es posible eliminar la competencia política sin recurrir a métodos abiertamente represivos. En lugar de balas se usan votos. Para conseguir los votos se utiliza el erario nacional (y a veces la ayuda extranjera) para financiar programas de ayuda social. Y para persuadir a los que dudan siempre hay dinero contante y sonante. Y si hay que usar balas, se usan de manera esporádica y siempre a través de terceros, buscando proteger al presidente de cualquier acusación. FONCODES, Montesinos, el grupo Colina, todos ellos fueron mecanismos para asegurar el poder de Fujimori. A pesar de la vigilancia internacional, y la movilización nacional, fue imposible remover a Fujimori a través elecciones en el año 2000. Tuvimos que esperar a una crisis interna del propio gobierno.
Al comienzo, estos candidatos a autócratas se rodean de tecnócratas y figuras de trayectoria democrática que puedan darle cierta seriedad y respetabilidad. El primer consejo de ministros de Fujimori estuvo compuesto por muchas personas respetables. Conforme avanza el proyecto autoritario, sin embargo, estas personas son descartadas sin miramientos, y los que quedan resultan que no eran ni tan respetables ni tan demócratas como se creía inicialmente.
Ollanta Humala parece destinado a ganar la primera vuelta y probablemente gane la segunda vuelta también. Su candidatura esta rodeada de alguna gente que cree con sinceridad que su gobierno pondrá al Perú en el camino de la justicia social. Ojala que no olviden lo que decía Amartya Sen, que la falta de democracia agrava las desigualdades sociales. Me temo que muchos de ellos serán descartados una vez que se acabe su utilidad, y serán reemplazados por sicofantes. El propio partido Unión por el Perú será descartado cuando Ollanta llegue al poder, como lo son los cohetes propulsores una vez que logran colocar a la nave en el espacio.
Existen varios indicios que indican que un triunfo de Ollanta Humala pondría a la democracia peruana—deficiente, débil e insensible frente a los pobres, pero democracia al fin—en peligro. Ollanta Humala ha anunciado su decisión de convocar a una asamblea constituyente apenas se haga cargo del poder. Esta es una propuesta peligrosísima porque las experiencias recientes en el Perú y otras partes del mundo indican que es el mecanismo que inicia el proceso de autoritarismo político. La constituyente fujimorista creó una superpresidencia y permitió que Fujimori pusiera gente de su confianza en los demás poderes del estado. Como resultado tuvimos un nuevo Jurado Nacional de Elecciones y una nueva Corte Suprema de Justicia. Todos sabemos como acabó esa historia. Ollanta Humala puede fácilmente usar los poderes que le da la actual constitución para intentar un proyecto autoritario. Pero sus intenciones se verían obstruidas por el hecho que, a diferencia de 1993, él no puede fácilmente y de un solo tirón imponer a gente de su confianza en los otros poderes del estado. Pero lo podría hacer si se convocara a una constituyente y se aprobara una nueva constitución.
Por esta razón, a pesar de todos los defectos de la actual constitución, debemos oponernos vigorosamente a que se convoque a una nueva asamblea constituyente. Si el nuevo congreso aprueba semejante ley, el Tribunal Constitucional debiera declararla inconstitucional. Que no cometa el error que se cometió en Venezuela. Sí tal decisión genera una crisis política, mejor ahora que después, cuando Ollanta Humala se haya asegurado y consolidado en el poder.
Mi propuesta es bastante simple: para proteger la naciente democracia, el nuevo presidente debe gobernar con las mismas reglas con las que fue elegido. Es un reclamo mínimo para garantizar la equidad en la competencia política y la continuidad del juego democrático.
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Julio Carrión, one of the leading experts on Peruvian politics, is editor of the recently published volume The Fujimori Legacy (Penn State University Press, 2006). In this commentary, entitled “The Danger of a Constituent Assembly,” Carrión argues that Ollanta Humala’s proposal for a constituent assembly to reform Peru’s constitutional order would open the door to the construction of an electoral-authoritarian regime. As the experience of the Fujimori regime demonstrated, and as the current struggle in Belarus dramatizes, elected autocrats can be difficult to dislodge.
Maxwell A. Cameron
March 28, 2006
The final weeks of this campaign may define whether Lourdes Flores or Alan Garcia enter the second round against Ollanta Humala. As Fernando Tuesta said last night on Prensa Libre with Rosa Maria Palacios, two things seem almost certain: there will be a second round and Humala will be in the second round.
In an interview in La Republica, Martin Tanaka notes that Alan Garcia has grown very slowly in the polls, while Lourdes Flores continues to have lower negatives. This could be the decisive. He attributes the slow decline of Lourdes Flores to her choice of running mates (both vice presidential and congressional). When asked by the interviewer whether the problems facing Flores might be more structural, Tanaka says that the frustration of the popular sectors does not express itself in a single attitude of rejection, some sectors are more aggressive than others. However, the impression that has developed is that Flores is the candidate of Lima and Humala the candidate of the provinces. Finally, Tanaka says that the alliances in the second round are unlikely to be decisive. The leaders of the parties have little say over how their followers will vote.
I would add a couple of things to Tanaka’s analysis. First, Flores has failed to give a face to popular frustration with the conditions of everyday life for the majority of people in this country. In an interview with Flores on Dos Dedos de Frente on Saturday, Augusto Alvarez Rodrich and Juan Carlos Tafur hammered away at the lack of an emotional connection between Flores and the electorate. One of the points they made was that Flores has not reacted to the attacks against her, even vile personal attacks. She has chosen to take the high road and to run a campaign based on optimism and a renewal of hope. I think that the weakness of such a strategy is that it does not allow her to tap into popular sentiment of outrage against the status quo. When Eliane Karp attacked Flores for not knowing what it is like to give birth in the unsafe and unsanitary conditions in which indigenous women live, Flores had the opportunity to attack the frivolity, inefficacy, and indifference of the Toledo government. Yet she did not. Instead, she has allowed Humala and Garcia to monopolize the outrage against Toledo.
The second point I would make is to agree that even APRA’s leaders are unlikely to be able to direct their voters in a second round. That said, one factor that could be important, if not decisive, is the search for governing coalitions. An APRA-UN alliance could well hold a working majority in congress. This could enable the leader of either of those groups to offer the electorate the promise that, if elected to the executive, she or he would be able to command a majority in congress. Jorge del Castillo has already said that he APRA will not make the mistake it made in 1990 when it supported Fujimori in a second round.*
A majority coalition could be helpful to the runner-up because it seems unlikely that the leader of UPP will be able to construct a governing majority. First, he is highly confrontational. Second, he is already talking about a constituent congress or constituent assembly that open the door to a period of serious constitutional crisis. Humala is more likely to want to follow the path of Chavez and to use the process of constitutional reform to centralize executive power and attack the traditional political class.
* “Apra promete estar al lado de la democracia si no pasa a segunda vuelta,” Gestión, 24 de marzo del 2006, p. 6. Del Castillo said: “ha pasado hace 15 años y el outsider (Alberto Fujimori) no resultó ser tan outsider, por el contrario, creo que gobernó con el establishment, con los grupos del poder económico…” He went on to say “Yo creo que es real el peligro antidemocrático, el peligro totalitario es real, no es un invento, entonces, obviamente creo que hay que esperar el desenvolvimiento de la primera vuelta y en la segunda evaluar y sentarse a conversar.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, the markets have recognized the danger of a victory by Ollanta Humala. The wake-up call came with the publication of the recent APOYO poll on Monday, March 20. This poll was followed by another APOYO poll yesterday confirming the trend. The so-called “Humala effect” resulted in a 4 percent drop in the Lima Stock Exchange index and “sparked a sell-off in the Peruvian sol as well,” according to Mary O’Grady.
A recent meeting between the economic team of the UPP and the Sociedad Nacional de Mineria, Petroleo y Energia (SNMPE) left local business leaders “very worried.”
Some of our readers are financial analysts. Here is what one of them recently wrote to us, on condition of anonymity:
“It seems that Humala’s campaign is gathering a lot of steam. The Peruvian stock market and currency, especially of late, have been selling off on the news. Humala (at least in my eyes and in the eyes of a lot of my friends that manage money and invest in companies that have mining operations in Latin America) brings great uncertainty to the downside. In Peru, I now not only have to worry about the individual merits of the investment, but also the risk that I wake up one morning and Latin America is in disarray because these left leaning countries (including Peru) decide that state run enterprises make more sense. I think the history of nationalization and its chilling effects on long term economic growth and income levels are clear and hopefully even radicals, if they truly have the best interest of the country at heart, understand that it is a mistake. Expropriation is a low probability event, but that probability ticks higher now, which I think will hurt Peru from global capital attraction perspective, at least until Humala can be watched for awhile. Peruvian credit spreads are now trading much wider than countries whose economic and political climate I considered far inferior just a few months ago.
“One could live with higher taxes and a less business friendly environment, especially if somehow these frictional costs on capitalism actually raised the quality of life for the poor and lower classes. From my view, it seems that the Peruvian economy should already be swimming in revenues from what is extracted from mining companies and other natural resource players in the country – a good deal of the problem is not revenues but ineffective governments not redeploying receipts into programs that help uplift the poor (easier said than done I know)…Now, in general commodity prices have been quite strong and nearly all mines should be profitable should these prices hold, so there will be some tolerance on existing investments, but I think the pace of new investment will slow short-term as people like me are unwilling to commit more capital.”
Encuesta de IDICE del Peru SAC: Peru: Intencion de Voto a Nivel Nacional: Del 20 al 22 de Marzo 2006 Download file
Update March 28: Bernardo Verjovski, President of the Peruvian Association of Market Research (APEIM), has informed the National Election Board (JNE) of critical errors in the implementation and measurement of polls by IDICE. An investigative report by Peru 21 published today, raises questions about the methodology and funding sources of IDICE polls in the last four months.
Jaime Bayly has written an opinion piece in La Tercera responding to Elena de Humala, Mother of Candidate Ollanta Humala, calling for homosexuals to be shot. The statement outraged the GLBT community in Lima last week.
The Blog Blabbeando: Thoughts of a Latino gay dude in Nueva York has an article discusssing Jaime Bayly’s piece: Update: Peru’s next president won’t shoot gays (but his mom would)
La última encuesta elaborada por la empresa Datum, revelada ayer en el programa “La ventana indiscreta” confirmó a Ollanta Humala en el primer lugar con el 31%, seguido por Lourdes Flores con el 26% y Alan García con 21% de la intención de voto. Este cuestionario electoral fue respondido por 1,350 personas en trece regiones del país.
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JNE-ONPE: One or Three Acts?
In todays editorial, La Republica emphasizes the need for the ONPE and the JNE to reach agreement on whether there the ballot consists of one or three acts.
Source: La República, 27 de marzo del 2006
This APOYO Opinión y Mercados survey was conducted exclusively for America Television. Universe: 2000 people in 178 districts in 113 localities in 79 provinces in all departments. Margin of error: +/-2.2%. The sample represents 81% of the electoral population of Peru. Download file
The trend from the last APOYO poll appears stable. In the words of Alfredo Torres, the director of APOYO, the big news is no news. Humala has not shot to within grasp of a first round victory, Garcia has not caught up with Flores, and Flores has nor recovered first place. Humala has a clear lead in rural areas and Flores in Lima. In a second round, Flores would win over Garcia or Humala; Humala would win over Garcia.
The Radio and Television Association of Peru (ARTV) published a communiqué on March 22 expresing serious concerns with Ollanta Humala´s government plan. These concerns have been deepened by recent statements made by Antauro Humala, brother of Ollanta, stating that radios like Radio Programas del Perú (RPP) or Cadena Peruana de Noticias (CPN) should be expropriated. Ollanta Humala has marked distance with his brother´ statements and initiatives of such nature. Rosa Maria Palacios defends freedom of the press in an editorial on March 26. Enrique Zileri, as former president of th Peruvian Press Council (PCC) demanded the candidate Ollanta Humala to sharply distinguish his views from the ones expressed by his brother Antauro.
Last week Alberto Fujimori, former president of Peru, declared to the Chilean judicial authorities that he met Vladimiro Montesinos after he was elected president. The statement is odd, as it is common knowledge that they met after the first round of the presidential election in 1990.
Journalist Angel Paez claims Keiko Fujimori lied about how she paid for her studies in the United States. She is currently a front-running candidate for congress.
Source: La Primera, 26 de marzo del 2006
Source: La Primera, 27 de marzo del 2006
A publicity stunt backfired when a motorized parachute bearing the name OIlanta landed in the middle of the “classic” football game between rivals Alianza and Universitario, causing a brief suspension of the game while the paramotor driver was booed off the field.
Yet another dispute has broken out between the ONPE and JNE. This one is over whether the ballot consists of a single act or three separate acts. ONPE upholds the view that on April 9 there will be three separate elections (one for president, one for congress, and one for the Andean parliament). This interpretation enables ONPE to tear off the presidential act and count all the presidential votes first (thus enabling a quick dissemination of the results). The JNE insists that there is one election and all votes have to be counted simultaneously before official results can be released.