Archive for December, 2005
Procurador Maldonado: Not Enough Funding to Investigate Alberto Fujimori’s Bank Acccounts
Caudillos in Peruvian Politics
By Jean Pierre Chabot, Sprott School of Business
Carleton University, Ottawa
December 30, 2005
Lourdes Flores’ Achilles’ Heel: Arturo Woodman
Maxwell A. Cameron
December 30, 2005
In an interview published in La Primera, Lourdes Flores Nano was asked a hard question. The interviewer, Matilde Soto, started by saying: “A shadow follows you that suggests you are the candidate of the entrepreneurial elite, yet you opted to select Arturo Woodman as your first vice president in your electoral slate.” She then threw her punch: “Did you put him there to assure financing from the Romero group?” This is a really tough question, because Flores has to demonstrate that she has the ability to reach beyond the confines of her traditional party base; that she is not beholden to big business; and that she is not the candidate of the traditional white, right-wing, urban establishment.
Her answer was as follows: “Arturo Woodman represents an example of a man who is committed to the service of the community in each and every area in which he has attempted to offer his services. I am convinced that we will be the government and that Woodman will be a fundamental element of support in themes like work with the police, citizen security, social policy, sports…”
The question and the answer underscore the biggest vulnerability in Flores’ campaign. She either does not understand the question or hopes she can evade it. The choice of Woodman as vice president links her to one of the most powerful economic groups in Peru. This will win her no votes outside San Isidro and Miraflores–in fact, it will cost her votes she can ill-afford to lose (on December 27 we reported polls showing a decline in support for Flores that we believe is a consequence of the selection of Woodman). What is more, Woodman is linked directly to banker Dionisio Romero, who was captured on more than one “Vladivideo.” Vladivideos are videos from the archives kept by Vladimiro Montesinos, Fujimori’s corrupt intelligence chief.
Inadvertently, Flores may have made corruption a central issue in the campaign. Her best move now? She could drop Woodman like a hot potato, but this would make her look vulnerable and weak. She could mount a spirited defense of Woodman, but this would only draw more attention to the issue (“no, I disagree with Woodman’s views on corruption” is not an easy position to defend). Or she can ignore the problem and hope it goes away. These are unpleasant options, the consequence of a bad choice.
Woodman’s links to Romero, Montesinos
Maxwell A. Cameron
December 30, 2005
Arturo Woodman is the former head of CONFIEP, the nation’s main business association; as such, he is one of the most powerful businessmen in Peru. He has worked closely with Dionisio Romero, reputed to be the most powerful entrepreneur, though now in retirement. Romero was disgraced by his questionable links with Vladimiro Montesinos, Fujimori’s sinister spymaster.
According to Ángel Páez, “Woodman was not only closely involved with the corrupt regime of Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), but is also a close associate of banker Dionisio Romero, who faced charges for trafficking of influences.” Woodman, he says, “personally brought Romero” to the offices of Montesinos. Romero not only met with Vladimiro Montesinos on a number of occasions, he also helped Montesinos to flee Peru providing a private jet to Montesinos after Fujimori announced his resignation in 2000.
Woodman claims to have severed all links with Romero and his financial group. In what might be read as a implicit defense of Romero, however, he has been critical of anti-corruption efforts in Peru. He argues no one should be charged with influence trafficking just because they met someone influential. Dionisio Romero is facing charges for influence peddling arising in part from his meetings with Montesinos. In response, judge Luis G. Vargas Valdivia has argued that Peru has taken unprecedented steps to improve its anti-corruption controls, but he also insists that the controls are not excessive. Not everyone who met with Montesinos has been charged with criminal activity he says, with reference to Woodman.
Ángel Páez quotes Ronald Gamarra, a former prosecutor and researcher at the Legal Defense Institute, who says: “Someone who has had such close ties to Montesinos should abstain from participating in politics, let alone run for vice president, no matter what party he belongs to.” Not the sort of ringing endorsement of a vice presidential candidate that a front-running presidential candidate might want.
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich on Quality of Polls
Augusto Alvarez Rodrich says there are phoney polls circulating these days. We should all take note. Alvarez Rodrich has a solid reputation as an analyst, and these are deeply troubling accusations. While shocking, such claims are not entirely surprising; even the best polls are often conducted in a manner that is less than fully transparent. That said, there appear to be particular problems with the IDICE poll. The story we quoted from La Republica raised questions at about the remarkably large size of the sample. Other survey researchers have also raised questions.
Army and Police May not be Able to Vote on April 9
Martin Tanaka: Dilemmas of a Democracy without Political Parties
Maximo Gallo (Tuesta y Consultores) on Regulating Electoral Advertising
According to an analyst with Tuesta y Consultores, ONPE (the public body that manages elections in Peru) needs to do more to enforce rules concerning electoral publicity. To ensure equity, ONPE should contact the media and make public the rates charged to ensure all parties are charged the same.
DATUM Poll, December 16-19, 2005
Source: La Republica, December 29, 2005
DATUM Poll, December 16-19, 2005: Flores Looses Momentum and Humala Continues Rising
DATUM Internacional. Estudio de Opinion Publica Electoral: 8va encuesta nacional de opinion publica 2005 – Download file
Sample: 1144 interviews between December 16-19, 2005 in Metropolitan Lima, Callao, Cusco, Ancash, Loreto, Piura, Arequipa, Junin, Ayacucho, La Libertad, Puno y Lambayeque. Margin of error: +/-3.0%.
Indymedia Views on Ollanta Humala
Views on “Selective Amnesty” for Military Forces Proposed by Luis Iberico
Maxwell A. Cameron
December 28, 2005
Luis Iberico, a member of congress for the Frente Independiente Moralizador (FIM), and president of the defense committee, has proposed a selective amnesty for members of the armed forces accused of human rights abuses. The president of the Constitutional Tribunal, Víctor García Toma, has warned that such an amnesty could be struck down by the courts. In his view, congress should not encroach on the administration of justice, or presume to decide who is guilty or innocent. An amnesty would be an abdication by the state of its responsibility to uphold the rule of law.
The issues raised in this interview are similar to those we noted in an earlier posting on Martha Chavez returns to congress. Some of Peru’s most distinguished legislators appear to have a poor understanding of the principles underpinning a separation of powers system. If members of congress want to uphold the rule of law, they should stop trying to act as judges. If they want to improve the judiciary, they should provide it with adequate funding.
Happy New Year 2006
Source: Peru 21. December 27, 2005
Muñecos del ex presidente Alberto Fujimori, vestido de presidiario, y del mandatario Alejandro Toledo, se han comenzado a vender en las calles de Lima. Los monigotes están listos para ser quemados en el año nuevo. (Foto: AFP)
Javier Valle Riestra: Alberto Fujimori could run
Indicó a RPP Noticias que el estar detenido en Chile no le impide al ex-presidente Fujimori postular a la presidencia de la República o al Parlamento, pues no lo priva de esos derechos.
Official Number of Released Terrorists
Según la Sala Penal Nacional de Terrorismo salieron en libertad 1,763 presos y no los casi 10,000 que mencionó el Presidente del Consejo de Ministros, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.
Source: La República. December 27, 2005
IDICE National Poll, December 19-23, 2005: Tie among Humala, Flores and Garcia
Source: La República, Dic 27 2005
Sample: 4,950 households in 37 provinces between December 19-23, 2005.
The study was supported by Universidad Particular Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Margin of error: +/- 4.5%
Óscar Ramírez Durand quiere ser el facilitador entre la justicia y los senderistas activos de la Selva Central
En entrevista exclusiva concedida al diario La Primera, el dirigente de Sendero Luminoso, Óscar Ramírez Durand “Feliciano”, se ofreció como facilitador para un diálogo entre el Gobierno y sus ex-camaradas en la selva.
Candidatos para presidir el Tribunal de Honor del Pacto Ético Electoral (PEE)
Se dio a conocer la relación de candidatos para presidir el Tribunal de Honor del Pacto Ético Electoral (PEE) que se encargará de vigilar que se cumplan los compromisos suscritos por los partidos políticos:
Kuczynski Exaggerated Number of Released Terrorists
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski exaggerated in his interview with Cadena Peruana de Noticias when he claimed that 10,000 former terrorists had been released from prison. According to La Republica, the number of people pardoned or released from jail, who were serving time on sentences involving terrorist activities (either as part of the Shining Path or MRTA) is closer to 4,000 since 1997.
In 1997:
– 3,878 prisoners for terrorism were registered;
– 3,144 of these prisoners were sentenced;
– 3,225 pardon requests were presented.
Wanted: Congressional Candidates
According to Peruvian newspapers, a political party posted a paid advertisement in a local newspaper to recruit potential congressional candidates. The notice called for potential applicants with vision who are, among other things, Peruvians between the age of 25 and 35.
Fernando Tuesta on Current Electoral Process
Fernando Tuesta criticizes the lax application of the law on political parties, especially with respect to the internal selection of presidential candidates.
According to Tuesta there are 32 parties running 4,000 candidates for congress.
In his book, entitled “Representación política: las reglas también cuentan”, Tuesta calls for a semi-presidential system, with a prime minister elected by congress with the power to appoint cabinet ministers. He also calls for a return to bicameralism and a larger number of seats. Fujimori reduced the size of congress with the specious argument that members of congress did nothing and cost too much money.
ONPE: 17 political parties have forged signatures
Source: El Comercio December 26, 2005
Jorge Bazo
December 26, 2005
Según un informe del diario El Comercio, desde el 19 de junio del 2004 hasta el 14 de setiembre del 2005, la Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) ha denunciado diversos casos de falsificación de firmas ante las distintas fiscalías penales. Hasta el momento han sido denunciadas 17 agrupaciones inscritas, o en proceso de inscripción, ante el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE), presentando un total de 120,541 firmas falsas, la mayoría realizadas con el mismo puño.
Transparencia: First Report of Election Observation
Primer Informe de Observación Electoral, Consejo Directivo, Asociación Civil Transparencia, December 21, 2005.
Jürgen Schuldt: Oligopolies & Political Parties
Presidential Slates
Drugs, Politics and Violence
Increasingly analysts are calling attention to the danger of the “Colombianization” of Peru. The growth of drug cultivation and trafficking in Peru in recent years has not only provided the financial resources for a possible resurgence of the Shining Path, it has also put money into the political system that could well find its way into the election campaigns of some parties and candidates.
Shining Path Presence in Peru
Source: La Republica, December 25, 2005
Interview with Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in CPN
IMA December 16-18, 2005 – Lima & Callao: Flores Reaches a Ceiling, Humala Maintains Second Place, Salinas and Belaunde Rise
Source: La Republica, December 24, 2005
Sample: 700 people in Lima and Callao. Download file
Shining Path Resurgence
President Alejandro Toledo declared a 60-day state of emergency in the cities of Huanuco, San Martin and Ucayali. The state of emergency was declared on the evening of December 21, 2005, following a Shining Path ambush in Aucuayacu, Huanuco, on December 20. Eight police were killed in the ambush, the second significant attack in recent weeks. An earlier ambush in Palmapampa on December 5 resulted in the death of five police officers.
The ambush in Aucuayacu is being attributed to “comrade Artermio,” one of the few Shining Path leaders who predates the capture of Abimael Guzman. The earlier attack was attributed to “comrade Alipio,” of the “Proseguir” faction of the Shining Path.
The attacks indicate that the Shining Path remains capable of inflicting casualties on the armed forces. Analysts claim the military has not received the funding necessary to contain the Shining Path in rural areas, especially the coca-producing jungle areas.
Prime Minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski claimed that as many as 10,000 “terrorists” have been released from prison in recent years, and many are presumed to have returned to subversive activities. He also estimates that coca production has increased by as much as 15 to 20 percent.
The Shining Path took responsibility for the ambush in Aucayacu and called for a boycott of the 2006 general election.
Source: La Republica, December 21, 2005
Human Rights Watch: Probable Cause Evidence Implicating Fujimori
This 22-page report focuses specifically on information implicating Fujimori in five criminal cases currently pending in Peru, including human rights violations as well as acts of corruption that undermined Peru’s democratic institutions.
Human Rights Watch Report, December 2005, Volume 17, No. 6(B)
Presunción Fundada: Pruebas que comprometen a Fujimori
Probable Cause: Evidence Implicating Fujimori
Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria Poll – Metropolitan Lima & Callao, December 17, 2005
Source: La Republica, December 21, 2005
Sample: 1200 people in Metropolitan Lima and Callao.
The table above compares the results from the Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad de Ingeniería (UNI)and the ones from La Catolica’ survey that has a smaller universe (607 people).
ONPE: Revista Elecciones #5
The Evo Effect
Source: LaUltima.com
The victory of Evo Morales in Bolivia has produced diverse reactions in Peru. Does the victory of the cocalero candidate in Bolivia augur well for Ollanta Humala?
For some, Morales is quite different from Humala. Bolivia has a powerful indigenous movement, and Morales has been struggling for power for years.
Others argue that Morales’ victory is being used to scare the middle class with the prospect that Humala represents the same sort of radical change in Peru.
Still others argue that the Morales victory could cut both ways, depending on whether his ascent to power produces positive or negative effects in Bolivia over the next few months.
Visit Altiplano Politico. There is a posting on Bolivia Electoral.
Interview with Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
Interesting El Comercio interview with Peruvian Premier Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. According to the Premier, and former Economy and Finance Minister, if Ollanta Humala wins next year’s general elections, he will not be able to replicate Hugo Chavez’ model given that Peru does not have Venezuela’s oil reserves. The Premier also argues the international community may not welcome Humala’s nationalistic policies.
Today is the Last Day to Register Presidential Slates
As of 12:00 EST, Unidad Nacional, Lourdes Flores’ alliance, and Justicia Nacional have not yet defined their presidential slates.
Source: El Comercio, December 19, 2005
Universidad Catolica Poll- Metropolitan Lima & Callao, December 9-11, 2005
Instituto de Opinion Publica de la Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru. Reporte de Opinion Publica, Diciembre 2005.
Sample: 605 men and women, 18-70 years old, in 37 districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao (not including beach resorts–balnearios). Survey was conducted between December 9-11, 2005.
Download file
Status of Political Parties and Electoral Fronts
Source: El Comercio, December 16, 2005
Interview with Julio Cotler
This interview was posted in Peru Economico in August 2005. It is as relevant today as it was then.
Martha Chavez returns to congress
Source: La Primera
Maxwell A. Cameron, December 15, 2005
After a 42 month absence, Martha Chavez returned to her seat in congress. She had been forced out in mid-2002 due to an allegation that she had taken $20,000 (US) from President Fujimori’s de facto security chief, Vladimiro Montesinos.
She has been absolved of wrong-doing by the courts.
According to a report by Peru.21, when Chavez returned to the congress a number of lawmakers approached her to offer their congratulations. Members of the government kept their distance. The ambience was tense, with some legislators appearing uncomfortable. Many believe the removal of Chavez was excessive, and partisan, though others argue that the decision was consistent with the evidence of wrong-doing available at the time.
In a press conference Chavez indicated that the congress has lost prestige, and that she would return to her seat in the only out of a sense of obligation to the voters. She accused Carlos Ferrero of deceiving lawmakers by assuring them there was video evidence that she received had money from Montesinos. She said her human rights have been abused.
There is a dimension to this story which deserves greater attention. By suspending Chavez from congress in 2002, the members of the legislative majority acted like a judicial body. They took a decision that was not general in character, but specific. One of the worst abuses of power under the government of Fujimori was the tendency to pass “laws with proper names.” That is, rather than legislating about general matters, the congress often passed laws to benefit or penalize specific individuals.
An example of this is the “Law of Authentic Interpretation of the Constitution,” which was written with the sole purpose of enabling Fujimori to run for a third term in 2000, in violation of the 1993 constitution. Martha Chavez was a ferocious defender of this law, and she participated in the destruction of the Constitutional Tribunal when it attempted to overturn it.
A majority on the tribunal argued that an ordinary law should not be used to determine the meaning of an article of the constitution for no other purpose than to benefit a specific individual. Such a law violated both the idea of a hierarchy of laws and the idea that law should be general in character.
By removing Chavez from her seat, the current congress engaged in similarly punitive behavior. They encroached on the role of the judiciary. Deciding criminal guilt is business best left to judges, who are more competent to make such decisions. Now that their actions have been thrown back in their faces they naturally feel chagrined. Well they might. It is, after all, a sad day when someone like Martha Chavez can lecture the public about the abuse of power and human rights.
Touché Lourdes: Venezuela denies links with Humala
In a press conference in Caracas, the Vice President of Venezuela, José Vicente Rangel, denied that President Hugo Chavez has links with Ollanta Humala. Lourdes Flores made this claim during her recent visit to Washington, D.C.
Rangel suggested that perhaps Flores has links with the government of the United States, since the policy of the United States is “to create confusion.”
QueHacer: Interview with Carlos Iván Degregori
No uno sino muchos países. Una entrevista con Carlos Iván Degregori
por Abelardo Sánchez León y Martín Paredes Oporto, QUEHACER 156
Lima, 9 de noviembre 2005 Download file
Peruvian Congress reject legislative proposal to avoid turncoatism
APRA proposed legislation to prevent turncoatism in political parties. The bill, which would ask parties not to include on their lists of candidates legislators who had left their political parties, has gone nowhere. Secretary general Jorge Del Castillo suggests this is due to the large number of turncoats in the current legislature. He took the opportunity to note that only APRA has held fully free and open internal elections to choose members of their slates for the congress.
Peru Possible pre-candidate #1: post-mortem interview
A very interesting interview by Cecilia Valenzuela with Jeanette Enmanuel, posted in Agenciaperu.com on December 11, 2005: Jeannette Enmanuel: “Mi madre me pidió de rodillas que no entrara a la política”
Perú Posible Pre-candidate #2: Rafael Belaunde
Two days after the resignation of Jeanette Enmanuel, Rafael Belaunde, leader of Adelante (a political party in process of registration with ONPE) and son of former president Fernando Belaunde Terry (1980-85), was “invited” by Alejandro Toledo to become the second presidential pre-candidate for Peru Posible. Belaunde is perceived to be an “independent.” He has proposed to reduce congressional terms to 2.5 years and cut public sector salaries. According to La Republica, Toledo chose Belaunde because of his public support for the free trade agreement with the United States.
Jose Barba Caballero told Radio Programas del Peru that Belaunde and Lourdes Flores held talks during the last year about forming an alliance. According to Juan Carlos Tafur, Flores Nano “invited” Belaunde to be first vice-president in her presidential slate. The deal fell through, however, because Flores did not agree to Belaunde’s request to include a handful of “independents” in Unidad Nacional’s congressional list.
For Augusto Alvarez Rodrich, the improvised selection of pre-candidates in Peru Posible is a characteristic of Toledo and his party that contributes to the perception that politics is a means for obtaining personal gains and privileges.
Source: Carlin, La Republica, December 13, 2005
Electoral Alliances for 2006 General Elections
The following alliances registered with the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE) on December 10, 2005:
– Alianza Electoral Frente del Centro (Acción Popular, Coordinadora Nacional de Independientes, Somos Perú)
– Alianza por el Futuro (Cambio 90, Nueva Mayoria)
– Concertación Descentralista (Partido por la Democracia Social (PDS), Movimiento Humanista Peruano)
– Unidad Nacional (Partido Popular Cristiano, Renovacion, Fuerza Radical)
– Fuerza Democratica (Fuerza Democrática, Fuerza Loretana)
December 19, 2005 is the deadline to register presidential slates for political parties and alliances.
So far there are 31 political parties ready to run and 14 in the waiting list, representing one of the largest contingent of electoral hopefuls in Peruvian political history.
Barometro Nacional December 3-4, 2005: regional distribution of electoral preferences
Source: La Republica, 11 de diciembre del 2005
Barometro Nacional December 3-4, 2005: socio-economic distribution of electoral preferences
Source: La Republica, 11 de diciembre del 2005
APOYO December 3-8, 2005 National Survey: Humala surges
Source: El Comercio, December 11, 2005
Ollanta Humala surges to second place (22%), only 3 points behind Lourdes Flores (25%). Flores has consolidated the female vote, is perceived as the candidate most able to promote education and investment, and interested in helping people. Humala is perceived as the “law and order” candidate with a direct connection with people. We have to watch Humala to see if he can win the “trust and faith” of the masses that Max Weber saw as characteristic of Caesarist leaders.
Encuesta realizada por Apoyo Opinion y Mercado en exclusiva para el Comercio y Opinion Data, 3-8 de diciembre del 2005. Universo: 1596 personas en las principales ciudades del Peru.
Source: El Comercio, December 11, 2005
Alliance Cambio 90-Nueva Mayoria-Si Cumple falls apart
Cambio 90 and Nueva Mayoria will run together as “Alliance for the Future”. Keiko Fujimori will become the president of this alliance with a slate that will not include former president Alberto Fujimori. Si Cumple’ strategy is to run separately and keep Alberto Fujimori as its presidential candidate.